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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Future Redbirds: Prospect Q + A w/Keith Law

When Love Was The Law In Los Angeles...St. Louis?

Is there a hitter, past or present who you’d compare Colby Rasmus to?

I don’t do the comparison game - most hitters strike me as unique. How often is a Stanford RHP compared to Mike Mussina? Why do we typically only hear white players compared to white players, and black to black? Anyway, Rasmus looks to me like a guy who’ll draw walks, hit for plus power and average, and provide above-average defense in center. That’s nothing you couldn’t glean from his ‘07 stat line. He’s got good wrists, takes a short path to the ball, and centers everything. If he was in the Yankees’ system, we’d all be nauseated from hearing about him all the time.

You didn’t seem all that enthused by the selection of Pete Kozma. Care to elaborate?

I have no problem with taking a high school player in the first round, obviously, but my philosophy is that if you’re willing to take on the development risk associated with a high school player, take a player whose upside will provide you with a suitable return. Kozma is a nice player with a soft swing that’s not going to generate power; he throws the bat at the ball and extends his arms way too early, and gets his weight out front early as well. I know the beta on an 18-year-old is really high, but if you offered me an over/under of .400 on his MLB career slugging percentage and forced me to choose, I’d take the under. That said, he plays a good shortstop and people love his makeup, so he has a low chance of providing a zero return.

Repoz Posted: January 02, 2008 at 09:09 PM | 11 comment(s)
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   1. Sparkles Peterson  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#2658743)
He hasn't read Watchmen yet?
   2. The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 10:12 PM (#2658761)
I don’t do the comparison game - most hitters strike me as unique. How often is a Stanford RHP compared to Mike Mussina? Why do we typically only hear white players compared to white players, and black to black?


um, is he kidding? let's just take apart the logic of these statements:

"most hitters strike me as unique": does that mean all the others are like each other? i would have thought that no matter how different hitters are, we can still compare them.

"How often is a Stanford RHP compared to Mike Mussina?": how many of those are there?

"Why do we typically only hear white players compared to white players, and black to black?": so break the mold keith! tell us how tim raines is not like rickey henderson! :) i don't care what you say: steve nash reminds me more of larry bird than michael jordan.
   3. Craig Calcaterra  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2658768)
He hasn't read Watchmen yet?


Hurm.

He said on his blog the other day that he wasn't sure how he had missed it and that, upon many recommendations, he was going to read it.
   4. MSI  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#2658778)
Song of Solomon and House of the Spirits were both pretty good books. Also Poems and Short Stories for Extremely Intelligent Children of all Ages (ed. Harold Bloom) was really good...put those on your list Keith.
   5. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 11:05 PM (#2658785)
Also Poems and Short Stories for Extremely Intelligent Children of all Ages (ed. Harold Bloom) was really good...put those on your list Keith.


That book is already on Keith's daughter's list.
   6. Keith Law  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#2658786)
Haven't read Song of Solomon yet, but I like Toni Morrison so I'll get around to it eventually.

And no, I haven't read Watchmen. As far as I was concerned, it was a comic book. It's on the TIME list of the 100 best novels published since the magazine's inception, so I'll give it a shot. Of course, when I went to B&N;to buy it, it was stocked with ... the comic books.
   7. MSI  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 11:28 PM (#2658792)
That book is already on Keith's daughter's list.


I don't get if this is sarcasm but it's pretty naive to think children's stories aren't great literature.
   8. 1k5v3L, Useless  Posted: January 02, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2658794)
I just meant that Keith's daughter is an extremely intelligent child (of a very young age). That's all.
   9. Halofan  Posted: January 03, 2008 at 12:13 AM (#2658806)
I wonder if you asked Keith Law if he would care to compare Tracy Ringolsby to Bill James if he would play the comparison game.
   10. Too Much Coffee Man  Posted: January 03, 2008 at 04:15 AM (#2658876)
I understand that the object of commenting here is to be snarky, but...
I just took the comparisons quote to mean that often times they are done on superficial characteristics, rather than true skills. A young power-hitting 3B might be compared to Scott Rolen if he's in the Cards' organization or Ron Santo if he's in the Cubs' system. If that's all that's done, it doesn't tell us much.
Of course, in this instance the interviewer wasn't asking Keith for such a superficial comparison. Isn't the point of a number of projection systems (like PECOTA) to take a look at someone's age, stat lines, and position and find other players with similar profiles? To say he could turn out to be somewhere between Bill Hall and Carlos Beltran gives the likely reader of the article a better picture of Rasmus as a prospect.
   11. Sparkles Peterson  Posted: January 03, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2659270)
Incidentally:

April .234/.306/.429
May .340/.439/.699
June .194/.308/.388
July .215/.351/.342
August .359/.470/.777

Rasmus came down with a severe sinus infection in early June and lost 10-15 pounds, and it coincided with him falling into a habit of trying to pull everything. As good as his '07 season was, there is a good chance that his true talent is a lot better than that. I can't wait to see how '08 goes for him.
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