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Saturday, January 30, 2010

Gardenhire optimistic Twins will get a deal with Mauer

Mauer and the Twins have been steadfastly quiet about any negotiations, but manager Ron Gardenhire expressed optimism a deal will get done this spring.

“I’m just letting it happen. I don’t sit and fret about it,” Gardenhire said earlier in the day at Target Field, where the Twins are moving this year. “I think the right thing is going to happen. I think we all know. I think we all know the ramifications if something were not to happen and it would go the other way. That wouldn’t be a good thing for anybody. I don’t see who, other than maybe some clubs out east.”

Mauer is making $12.5 million this season, the last year of his current contract. He’ll be eligible for free agency in the fall if no new deal is in place, a scenario that wouldn’t bode well for the Twins given the interest the soon-to-be-27-year-old would attract on the open market. But Gardenhire, though removed from the process, wasn’t worried.

“I’ll be happy when he does sign. He can buy me a beer. Probably two. Maybe three,” he said, chuckling.

With Target Field blanketed in snow and the temperature near zero, TwinsFest was held at the usual Metrodome spot. Mauer was, of course, the center of attention wherever he wandered.

About the contract?

“I feel like a broken record,” he said. “People, they want to know what’s going on and try to find out things when they can, but I keep saying—I’m sounding like a broken record right now—it’ll all happen when it needs to happen and you’ve just got to try to let it all happen. That’s what we’re doing.”

As Mauer took questions from a small group of reporters in a basement hallway, teammate and close friend Justin Morneau walked by and shouted, “14-year extension, 20 a year!”

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/01/29/twins.mauer.ap/index.html#ixzz0e6c4dRu8
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In which Ron Gardenhire sees the true upside if Mauer signs: He’ll have more money to buy Gardy beer.

Gamingboy Posted: January 30, 2010 at 02:26 PM | 37 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2010 at 05:37 PM (#3450629)
I expect Minnesota gets this done.
   2. SG Posted: January 30, 2010 at 05:48 PM (#3450635)
I really hope he stays a Twin.
   3. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: January 30, 2010 at 05:51 PM (#3450638)
Me, too. The thought of Mauer-the-Yankee makes me want to break stuff.
   4. SG Posted: January 30, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3450640)
The thought of Mauer as a Red Sock gives me similar feelings.
   5. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 30, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3450641)
“14-year extension, 20 a year!”

How about 7/40 instead?
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3450761)
Me, too. The thought of Mauer-the-Yankee makes me want to break stuff.

The thought of Mauer as a Red Sock gives me similar feelings.

I don't want to see either.
   7. pkb33 Posted: January 30, 2010 at 09:51 PM (#3450771)
What would he go for in a VMart-not-extended scenario? It'd be huge---7-8 years at something around 20 per, wouldn't it? Would AAV be even higher?
   8. vigaro Posted: January 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM (#3450812)
Mauer is the best of the best,,a primo, free agent to be stud, Unless a preemptive deal (meaning assuredly at/over market value) is signed or unless the Yankees again avoid becoming the Tankees, then Mauer will be wearing pinstripes in the very near future.

Boston doesn't enter into it.

The understanding is the Yanks will lay off the Hollidays etc, BUT not if the cannon fodder get uppity and cause them to melt into mush again.

Of course, none of this can be written or said outside of an absolutely closed room.

And Mauer has said he will sign when the time comes to sign, which, since the idea wasn't to protect his pre-free agent years, means when he can get a free agent caliber deal.
   9. Drexl Spivey Posted: January 31, 2010 at 12:17 AM (#3450844)
Hypothetical question: If Mauer repeats his 2009 season (pro-rated over a full season) and then announces that he will sign a one-year contract for the team offering the most money (with the club agreeing not to offer arbitration the following year)...how much money would he get?
   10. 92-93 Posted: January 31, 2010 at 12:31 AM (#3450850)
27m.
   11. Accent Shallow Posted: January 31, 2010 at 12:41 AM (#3450857)
At what point, if any, do the Twins consider moving Mauer off catcher, perhaps to third base? He's already had recurring back issues, and you wouldn't want him to go all Mattingly on you.
   12. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim Posted: January 31, 2010 at 12:43 AM (#3450858)
$30 million.
   13. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3450867)
At what point, if any, do the Twins consider moving Mauer off catcher, perhaps to third base? He's already had recurring back issues, and you wouldn't want him to go all Mattingly on you.


I don't think about moving him off the position until such time as he is physically incapable of playing it. I don't know why people are always so anxious to move hitting catchers off the position. So you can preserve his hitting? He's not a special player anywhere except catcher -- unless he can continue to post OPS+s of 170, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect a player to keep repeating his career year.

You run him out to catcher and get as much as you can out of him before he breaks down. The contract you offer him should reflect that overall approach, with all its risks and rewards. And if another team blows your offer out of the water, so be it.

Third base? He's never played it, and it's not exactly an easy position to learn, especially not on the fly in the majors. In his entire professional career going back to age 18, he has just 14 games at any position other than catcher. (The 14 games were at 1B.) It's not even clear he can adequately field another position, nor is it clear that he doesn't run a _higher_ risk of injuring himself.

They have a good thing with him at catcher. Why eff with it?
   14. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3450872)
I actually think it's at least even money he stays in Minnesota, and I also think that people who assume he's going to be a Stinkee aren't really investing any thought in the matter. Plenty of great ballplayers have come and gone off the market -- even at positions of need for the Yanks -- without playing an out in pinstripes. Matt Holliday this year being the obvious example, but also Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, and others. If he goes on the open market, of course the Yankees are the favorites. But the Twins have a new ballpark and a competitive team and Mauer is local. It took less than that to persuade Pujols to stay in St Louis.

And though I've long argued that rich teams should never, ever allow a prospect to block them from signing a legit star, in the real world some teams do take this into account. I don't know if the Yankees are one of them -- they haven't really had that many quality hitting prospects other than Cano in a long time -- but in this instance to do in theory have Jesus Montero, one of the best up-and-coming hitters in the minors, who is at least in theory a catcher.

There's also the fact that the Yankees, to this point, aren't dumb, and unless Mauer is that fluke player who is injured when young and healthy when over 30, he's liable to be significantly overpaid unless he consents to move off catcher . . . and his likely destinations (3B and 1B) are both occupied by big stars with huge contracts already.
   15. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 31, 2010 at 01:31 AM (#3450884)
I don't know why people are always so anxious to move hitting catchers off the position. So you can preserve his hitting?

In this particular case, to prolong Mauer's peak, prime, and career. This is, after all, a player who has already had knee and back issues at a relatively young age. That said, I wouldn't move him myself. I'd just make sure I had a solid backup and give him plenty of rest at DH (and maybe 1B).

It took less than that to persuade Pujols to stay in St Louis.

Pujols signed his extension in his first arb year. It paid him $8M per for three arb years and $16M per for five FA years. Maybe he would have made $20-25M more if he'd gone to arbitration three times and then hit the open market, but transferring three years of injury risk from him to the team has to be worth something, doesn't it? I'd say that Pujols was persuaded to stay in St. Louis by a very generous contract offer. I'll bet that Mauer would have taken three more years at ~$13M per back in 2007.
   16. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 01:48 AM (#3450899)
I'd actually be intrigued to see if Mauer can play CF. It's never going to happen, but at this point, he's got the arm and the wheels for it, and I think you'd be more likely to get ~150 games a year out of him if you stuck him out there. If he can hack it, he instantly becomes the best CF in baseball by a good margin. Of course, he's already the best C in baseball, so who knows if the extra 5-10 games a season you get out of him (and lower injury risk) would really be worth the positional hit.
   17. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3450914)
I'd actually be intrigued to see if Mauer can play CF. It's never going to happen, but at this point, he's got the arm and the wheels for it, and I think you'd be more likely to get ~150 games a year out of him if you stuck him out there. If he can hack it, he instantly becomes the best CF in baseball by a good margin. Of course, he's already the best C in baseball, so who knows if the extra 5-10 games a season you get out of him (and lower injury risk) would really be worth the positional hit.


I disagree with pretty much every word in this paragraph, including "and" and "the."

1. Why should we expect he can play a competent CF? Did he play the outfield even in high school? Playing a competent MLB CF is much more than arm and speed; judgment of the ball is crucial, as is not just arm strength but accuracy, and reflexes. And being able to judge whether to call your fielders off. Being a good athlete (I realize he played football and basketball) hardly translates to being a good CF in the majors.

2. I don't see why he'd be less of a risk to injure himself at CF than at C.

3. He "instantly becomes the best CF in baseball by a good margin"? Better than Beltran? Sizemore? Kemp? Only if Mauer continues to repeat his career year at the plate (he has no SB value), and only if he actually is able to field a pretty good CF. Pretty massive "if's" there. I simply don't see it.
   18. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:11 AM (#3450917)
I think it should be obvious that anybody with the arm strength and accuracy to be an excellent defensive catcher has the arm strength and accuracy to play a competent CF. The other stuff it takes to play CF, who knows? Agree with 2 and 3, though.
   19. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:12 AM (#3450919)
1. I dunno, was there any particular reason to expect Craig Biggio to be competent at 2B? Not really, except that he was a world-class athlete. The same is true of Mauer and CF.

2. This one has to be a joke, right?

3. If he plays average CF and hits like he has the last two years, then yes, he instantly becomes better than all of those players. Beltran has balky legs and is likely to have significantly reduced range. Sizemore isn't nearly the hitter that Mauer is. Kemp isn't, either.

If you're going to be a ####### #######, try not to be so damned dim.
   20. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:17 AM (#3450920)
This one has to be a joke, right?

Only if you equate "wearing down" with "injuring himself." Or if you count all the little dings that catchers inevitably get as "injuries." But I don't have a problem understanding Ray's point about other position players also being at risk of injury.
   21. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3450924)
1. I dunno, was there any particular reason to expect Craig Biggio to be competent at 2B? Not really, except that he was a world-class athlete. The same is true of Mauer and CF.


Biggio at least played the infield in high school.

2. This one has to be a joke, right?


Not at all. Catchers probably get hurt more than CFs as a general rule, but that is for players who know how to play center field. Mauer's going to be dealing with walls, and other outfielders, and with learning how to dive for balls and what not without hurting himself (how to land, etc.). These are skills.

3. If he plays average CF and hits like he has the last two years, then yes, he instantly becomes better than all of those players.


We should factor in more than just two years, but even assuming he can hit to a 150 OPS+ (which he's done exactly once in his career and came close another time), I still would rather have Beltran and Sizemore and Kemp, given total lack of knowledge we have as to whether Mauer can handle the position. But even so, stating that he would instantly become "the best CF in baseball by a good margin" was a vast overbid. Surely you realize that, and can admit it.
   22. AJM Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:54 AM (#3450939)
The thought of Mauer-the-Yankee makes me want to break stuff.

The thought of Mauer-the-Met makes me feel warm and fuzzy.
   23. AROM Posted: January 31, 2010 at 03:23 AM (#3450952)
Mauer runs well for a catcher. I don't think he's anywhere close to CF speed.
   24. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 31, 2010 at 03:53 AM (#3450968)
The thought of Mauer-the-Met makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

The thought of Mauer-the-Blue Jay was positively beautific, until I remembered that the Wells contract would make that more or less impossible. Then the head on my Vernon Wells 2005 Gold Glove bobblehead fell off, and I didn't bother to replace it.
   25. vigaro Posted: January 31, 2010 at 01:42 PM (#3451069)
The Yank volcano USED to be satiated if a bigname old fart was tossed down. Now the volc's stuck this equation in its computer: if <= 30 && !!! = autosign. MLB tossed down a stud cf and a stud starting pitcher to keep the thing quieted down, but if no ring, it's going into learning mode again.
   26. DL from MN Posted: January 31, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3451078)
I don't think it's reasonable to expect a player to keep repeating his career year.


His career year happened at age 26 and the only thing he added was power. It is pretty reasonable to expect a repeat.

Third base? He's never played it.


Mauer is a world class athlete. He was going to play QB at Florida State and was recruited to play basketball (forward) at Division I schools. Word is he consistently wins the team golf tournaments. Give him an offseason and he'll be fine at 3B. He has all the tools (reaction time, hand-eye coordination, arm, footwork). I think they'll move him in his early 30s. Expect 3-4 more All-Star years at catcher.
   27. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 03:32 PM (#3451084)
Only if Mauer continues to repeat his career year at the plate (he has no SB value)


Mauer is actually probably the best baserunner on the Twins. I bet if he wasn't catching everyday and protecting his legs, he would steal quite a few more bases at a very effective percentage.
   28. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3451087)
Mauer is a world class athlete. He was going to play QB at Florida State and was recruited to play basketball (forward) at Division I schools. Word is he consistently wins the team golf tournaments. Give him an offseason and he'll be fine at 3B. He has all the tools (reaction time, hand-eye coordination, arm, footwork). I think they'll move him in his early 30s. Expect 3-4 more All-Star years at catcher.


Don't forget that in 3 weeks he taught himself how to bowl well enough to get in the 270s.
   29. SugarBear Blanks Posted: January 31, 2010 at 05:21 PM (#3451114)
We should factor in more than just two years, but even assuming he can hit to a 150 OPS+ (which he's done exactly once in his career and came close another time), I still would rather have Beltran and Sizemore and Kemp, given total lack of knowledge we have as to whether Mauer can handle the position. But even so, stating that he would instantly become "the best CF in baseball by a good margin" was a vast overbid. Surely you realize that, and can admit it.

Mauer is a great athlete and led the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in 2009. His OPS+ was 170 last year; Sizemore hasn't come closer that 37 points to that in his career, Kemp hasn't come closer than 45 points to that in his career. Beltran came within 20 points four years ago, before he incurred an arthritic knee that make highly likely his best days are well behind him. He's 33 and going down, down, down.

Sizemore, Kemp, and Beltran simply aren't in Mauer's class. They're good to excellent players. They aren't Joe Mauer. The only question is whether Mauer could play CF. His athletic ability screams "Yes!"

We should factor in more than just two years, but even assuming he can hit to a 150 OPS+ (which he's done exactly once in his career and came close another time)

I thought guys were just getting going when they hit 26. Let's see, there's Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Barry B ....
   30. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 05:57 PM (#3451136)
The only question is whether Mauer could play CF.


Oh, is that the "only question"? Why didn't you say so?

His athletic ability screams "Yes!"


Newsflash: all of these guys are exceptional athletes.

It's hard enough to move a corner OF to centerfield, let alone a catcher. Assuming a successful transition is nonsense of the highest order.
   31. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 06:40 PM (#3451153)
Over the last century there has been one player who has played 100 games both at C and at CF in the majors: Craig Biggio. So there's your best argument that Mauer can handle the switch. Of course, Biggio had played some games in the OF and at CF when he first came up to the majors at ages 23 and 24, so the position wasn't completely foreign to him. (My understanding is that Biggio was pretty poor defensively in CF when they moved him there full time, but he was 37 and 38 years old so I don't think that's all that relevant.)

The problem is that while Biggio is a strong data point, the argument is inherently extremely weak since he's the only data point. The six guys who played 100 games at both C and CF 100+ years ago were playing a different game (Jim O'Rourke, Roger Bresnahan, Scott Hastings, Bill Harbidge, Charlie Dexter, Jack O'Connor).

If we go down to 50 games at each position we get 17 names instead of 7, most notably Dale Murphy and Eli Marrero.

If we go down to 10 games at each position we get 75 names.

One simply cannot assume a successful transition.
   32. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: January 31, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3451165)
The problem is that while Biggio is a strong data point, the argument is inherently extremely weak since he's the only data point.


I agree with you in general, but Dale Murphy is a valid data point. 85 games in the majors at catcher. His minor league career was almost exclusively at catcher.
   33. bunyon Posted: January 31, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3451182)
I was all set to bring up Murphy and then saw that misrlou did. Murph is pretty analogous to Mauer, IMO - same set of skills, same good clean living kind of guy, respected by pretty much everyone - it's almost a freaking reincarnation. Like others above, i wouldn't move him just yet, but I think the Mauer is a good candidate to move to CF just fine. Not at this moment, of course, you'd have to do it in the off-season and he'd have to buy into it and work really hard at it. but if he did so, I think he'd be good.

Still, you know he's great at catcher. You only think he might be good at CF (or 3B). to me, that says, leave him alone.
   34. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 31, 2010 at 08:02 PM (#3451188)
He's not a special player anywhere except catcher


Mauer has a higher career OPS+ than Matt Holliday or David Ortiz or J.D. Drew or Chase Utley. He has the same career OPS+ as David Wright and Mark Teixeira. He's a special player anywhere other than first base or DH, at which point he settles into merely being a perennial all-star.
   35. Dr. I likes his panda steak medium rare Posted: January 31, 2010 at 08:18 PM (#3451193)
Over the last century there has been one player who has played 100 games both at C and at CF in the majors: Craig Biggio.


While both are great athletes, Mauer and Biggio are quite different in both body type and athletic profile. Is Mauer really as fast as Biggio? In terms of body type, Murphy is a much better comparison.

Another difference between Mauer and Biggio: as far as I can remember, Biggio was not an elite defensive catcher. Mauer is. Moving Biggio to 2B made more sense, as you weren't giving up as much by losing his defense behind the plate, and more of his value was based on speed. (If I remember, Biggio was moved because of concerns about him losing speed with all of the squatting.) Mauer also runs pretty well, but speed is a less critical part of his game, whereas his defense at catcher brings more value than Biggio's did (I think).

Chances are halfway decent that Mauer will eventually move to a different position, in order to prolong his career. But why not wait until he is in his 30's (or it is absolutely forced by injury) to start worrying about it. Chances are pretty low that the position Mauer will move to at that point will be something as demanding as CF. For now, giving him chances to DH and take the night off from catching seems like the best plan.
   36. Tripon Posted: January 31, 2010 at 08:19 PM (#3451196)
This is such a dumb conversation. Joe Mauer isn't going to play CF ever. He's more likely to just be shifted to LF/1B first.
   37. RayDiPerna Posted: January 31, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3451220)
Mauer has a higher career OPS+ than Matt Holliday or David Ortiz or J.D. Drew or Chase Utley. He has the same career OPS+ as David Wright and Mark Teixeira. He's a special player anywhere other than first base or DH, at which point he settles into merely being a perennial all-star.


Okay, I concede that point.
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