So much for my theory, stated so confidently in yesterday's chatter, that Glavine would retire after this year ... because all the signs that way.

Honestly, this does create an issue for the Mets. I don't think Humber is an issue, because he could use another year in AAA. But Pelfrey, to me, is ready and should take a spot.

But what do you do? If you want to be hard-edged about it, the difference between Glavine and Pelfrey is not worth $12M, and the $12M could be better spent elsewhere. But I guarantee you the Mets won't think that way. They'll think they have a question mark in Pedro, and somewhat of a question mark in El Duque because of his age and fragility. So you want the most rock-solid guy you could ever want . . . and that's Tom Glavine. Not Mike Pelfrey.

So the top of the rotation will be yet another year older . . . ancient, even. I don't love it, let's just say that.

Is ~200 innings of above (NL) average pitching with, I don't know, a 30% chance of total collapse worth $12 million? To the Mets, maybe it is. I guess I'd rather do 1/12 with Glavine than 4/42 with Jeff Suppan...

The Mets could potentially have a logjam next season when it comes to starting pitchers with Pedro, Duque, Glavine, Perez, Duque, Pelfrey and Humber.

Two Duques? Is Adrian Hernandez making a comeback?

Pedro, Duque, Glavine, Perez, Duque, Pelfrey and Humber.

Remember the Maine!!!

Oh, I get it, John Maine is the new "El Duquecito".

I suppose a total postseason disaster could change the Mets' mind on it all, but otherwise I think they'd probably rather have too many pitchers than too few.

As for Glavine, two years ago I would have said that he'd be looking for a way back to Atlanta, but NY obviously gives him a better chance to be on a winning ballclub. Moreover, given how frustrated Smoltz and Chipper have seemed this year (with each other and at the general situation in Atlanta), Leo being gone, and all the rest, Glavine is no doubt smart enough to realize that you can't go home again.

I see Glavine signing a five-year, $45M contract with Baltimore next year.

The Mets could potentially have a logjam next season when it comes to starting pitchers with Pedro, Duque, Glavine, Perez, Duque, Pelfrey and Humber.

Remember when the Phils had a logjam at SP? For the last 3 or so weeks, their best SPs are the Kyles, Kendrick and Lohse. To be fair, 1/6 of the problem is self-inflicted.

I suppose a total postseason disaster could change the Mets' mind on it all, but otherwise I think they'd probably rather have too many pitchers than too few.

Absolutely. And that's smart, too. Any team that will be riding Pedro's surgically repaired shoulder and El Duque's fragile body into the season sure as hell better have some spare pitchers lying around.

The downside of it is that it begins to look to the young ones like there just isn't an opportunity in this organization . . . .

Glavine's ability to take the ball every fifth day makes his averageness more palatable. Pedro and Hernandez are big durability questions.

$12mm for one year? It won't make or break the 2008 Mets either way, I think.

The downside of it is that it begins to look to the young ones like there just isn't an opportunity in this organization . . . .

I'd worry about this if I were running a tech company, but the Mets have these guys locked up for a while. If Glavine and El Duque are still around clogging roster spots when the young ones become eligible for free agency, well, then the Mets have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

Remember when the Phils had a logjam at SP? For the last 3 or so weeks, their best SPs are the Kyles, Kendrick and Lohse. To be fair, 1/6 of the problem is self-inflicted.

Remember when the Jays loaded up on every available cheap free agent starter? At the beginning of the year, they had Halliday, Burnett, Chacin, Towers, McGowan, Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, Zambrano, Okha, and Thompson, and they've needed pretty much all of them to put together a solid starting rotation.

Simply put, if the Mets only have seven guys that can fill out a rotation next year, they're likely to run into trouble at some point. It is true that you can never have too many starting pitchers.

Duque is signed for $6M for next year. If the Mets think that Pelfrey is ready to start next year, then they should be able to easily trade Duque, who currently has a 3.32 ERA (128 ERA+).

I see Glavine signing a five-year, $45M contract with Baltimore next year.

Pitching coaches make that kind of money?

#9

Yeah, well, young ones like Maine and Perez got their opportunities. And it isn't as if Duque is going to have 200 IP. Or that Pedro is an innings eater with no injury concerns.

If all it would take is $12 M / 1 for Glavine, that seems like a no brainer to me.

Simply put, if the Mets only have seven guys that can fill out a rotation next year, they're likely to run into trouble at some point. It is true that you can never have too many starting pitchers.

In addition to the seven mentioned above, the Mets have Jorge Sosa who did a decent enough job as a 5th starter this year and Jason Vargas, who has been pretty bad the last two seasons, but who had a taste of major league success in 2005. Kevin Mulvey might be able to help sometime during the 2008 season. That's already 10 guys the Mets have who could fill out the rotation.

Omar is probably going to look to trade some pitching for a catcher. He almost has to.

Is ~200 innings of above (NL) average pitching with, I don't know, a 30% chance of total collapse worth $12 million? To the Mets, maybe it is.

I'm not even sure it's going to be easy to find something to spend money on this offseason. We were talking about this in chatter yesterday.

In addition to the seven mentioned above, the Mets have Jorge Sosa who did a decent enough job as a 5th starter this year and Jason Vargas, who has been pretty bad the last two seasons, but who had a taste of major league success in 2005. Kevin Mulvey might be able to help sometime during the 2008 season. That's already 10 guys the Mets have who could fill out the rotation.

My original comment wasn't intended to be a criticism of the Mets. Rather, it was just intended as an observation of the volatility of pitching in general, and starting pitching in particular, and the danger of relying too much on the frontline guys without considering depth..

So the top of the rotation will be yet another year older . . . ancient, even. I don't love it, let's just say that.

This seems like a no-brainer. If the older pitchers break down, you have Pelfrey and Humber. If they don't, who cares how old they are, plus you can reevaluate after 2008.

I didn't take it as criticism of the Mets. I just wanted to add the Mets have other guys as well which means they'll likely make a deal.

One thing to keep in mind if I'm a young Met pitching prospect is the fact that Pedro, Glavine, Duque, and Perez could all be gone after 2008. Obviously, Minaya has to keep that in mind.

What is the option dollars that he might be declining? And I'm mixed on Glavine, even 30% collapse, I would assume he being below league average must be at > 50%. At 12 mill too? 8 mill probably gets it done though.

At the same time, Pedro, Duque, & Glavine probably means the need for a long man in the pen, might Humber or Pelfrey be that for a year? If Perez and Maine are on the team, they have to start. Might Maine be a sell/trade high option?

Wow, it's going to be an interesting off season for the Mets.

"At the same time, Pedro, Duque, & Glavine probably means the need for a long man in the pen, might Humber or Pelfrey be that for a year? "


The Mets don't ever seem to do that.

Sosa did, by comparison, a great job as a fifth starter. I think he was probably the best fifth starter that any team had at any time this season.

Except for the fifth starters the Red Sox and Mets theoretically have right now.

Might Maine be a sell/trade high option?

I wouldn't rush to trade Maine and I think he's more of 100 ERA+ guy than what he's shown this season. Again, the Mets might have a logjam in 2008 but they could be lacking depth as soon as 2009. Maine won't even be arbitration eligible until 2010. Unless I get a young stud second baseman or catcher, I don't move Maine.

So much for my theory, stated so confidently in yesterday's chatter

That was the first thing I thought of, when I saw the headline. ;-).

If a guy can still pitch well enough to hold down a spot in a major league rotation, it is very, very hard to walk away.

As to the price tag: In thinking about what Glavine will be worth, do not limit it to what this year's pitchers are making; think about what the cost will be next year, when there may not be a lot of pitching on the market.

The Mets now have the luxury of surplus. I expect Omar to make a deal of some kind.

Maine has been a great pickup, and I really enjoy his starts when he is on, which has been more often than not. But the sick disgusting part of me would like to see him traded for Salty or someone that will really help the Mets and Maine upon joining an AL team will more likely than not get lit up like a septuagenarian's birthday cake.

Of course, if he stays with the Mets, I hope Maine continues to realize the promise he shown this year.

If Glavine offers 12M/year next year, I'd take the signed contract and run. He's the ideal #5 starter, pretty good bet to give you ~200 innings of above average pitching. If he or Duque melts down, then Pelfrey can take over. Both Pelfrey and Humber are ready, and they'll make ideal 6/7th starters.

There's also the possibility that if Pelfrey does emerge next year, the Mets can then use Maine as the centerpiece to acquire another major piece.

I would *not* trade Maine until either Pelfrey or Humber establishes himself as a solid starter. Seeing Vargas and Lawrence go out there and get shellacked is enough to make me cautious. Every year, the Mets seem to have to patch the rotation up at times with mediocre starters.

But the sick disgusting part of me would like to see him traded for Salty or someone that will really help the Mets and Maine upon joining an AL team will more likely than not get lit up like a septuagenarian's birthday cake.

Depending on the division and the home ballpark, I think Maine would do quite well in the AL. He did post a 3.72 ERA against the AL this season. Don't underrate the offenses in the NL East. Atlanta, Philly, and the Marlins all have very good offenses. It's not easy to pitch to these lineups.

Here's an idea....

John Maine for Richie Weeks.

If Glavine offers 12M/year next year, I'd take the signed contract and run.

I'm with the others who think the Mets would absolutely have to keep Glavine. The two best available pitchers for the offseason signed extensions (Zambrano, Buerhle).

Do you like anyone on this list for a long term deal?

I'm not even sure it's going to be easy to find something to spend money on this offseason. We were talking about this in chatter yesterday.

This is a terrible offseason for the Mets; the best players likely to be available are OFs. I think the Mets re-sign Castillo, keep Alou, and I have no clue what they do for catcher.

Here's an idea....

John Maine for Richie Weeks.

That's an idea. Not a good idea, but an idea.

This is a terrible offseason for the Mets; the best players likely to be available are OFs. I think the Mets re-sign Castillo, keep Alou, and I have no clue what they do for catcher.

I'm not overly excited about a long-term deal for Castillo, given his injury issues. But you're right- there's no match between FA and what the Mets will need.

Remember when the Jays loaded up on every available cheap free agent starter? At the beginning of the year, they had Halliday, Burnett, Chacin, Towers, McGowan, Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, Zambrano, Okha, and Thompson, and they've needed pretty much all of them to put together a solid starting rotation.

It didn't quite work out that way. It's quite funny actually, the Jays have a nice rotation right now because they were forced into it. Burnett, Chacin, Zambrano, got hurt, Halladay got sick, Towers and Okha got rocked. With the "experience" all on the shelf, they had to look to the promising kids. It was the first time they knew they would get regular work and not lose a job after a bad start. They got a chance to settle in and *BOOM*.

I honestly think that if the team had of been healthy the Jays would have a rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Zambrano, and Towers and trying to avoid a 100-loss season. Quite frankly, all the injuries might have saved J.P. Ricciardi and John Gibbons' jobs. Now they got an extremely solid front four. I'm not sold on Litsch; his ERA masks the fact that he's given up a lot of unearned runs, his raw stuff isn't overwhelming, he gives up 10 hits/9 IP, and surrendered 12 HR in 87.2 IP. His control is good 2.8 BB/9 IP. What I see is a slightly better version of Josh Towers. I suppose 180 innings of league average work for a fifth starter is O.K. however I think that's about all than can be reasonably expected.

Of course the injuries to B.J. Ryan and Brandon League have allowed Casey Janssen and Jeremy Accardo to emerge (the last two games shenanigans notwithstanding). I hope Janssen gets a chance to try for the No. 5 starter job next spring rather than handing it to Litsch.

Amazing. The Jays have a shot at the best pitching in baseball in 2008 and they owe it all to injuries.

Best Regards

John

John Maine for Richie Weeks.

That's an idea. Not a good idea, but an idea.

Not a terrible trade either. But Weeks hasn't shown me that he's solid enough with the glove or exceptional enough with the bat to be worth Maine.

I'm not overly excited about a long-term deal for Castillo, given his injury issues. But you're right- there's no match between FA and what the Mets will need.

My stance on Castillo hasn't changed. A good player who in the long term should be a backup plan for 2B in case Gotay or IPOR can't improve enough to be the answer. Maybe the Mets can afford to have an expensive insurance plan, but I'm not sure Slappy would be happy on the bench.

Not a terrible trade either. But Weeks hasn't shown me that he's solid enough with the glove or exceptional enough with the bat to be worth Maine.

He's 25 this week. His defense is terrible. He's at .232/.369/.400 this year, .249/.354/.398 career. You think he's close to enough of an upgrade over Ruben Gotay (three months younger, .314/.470/.448 this year, .262/.318/.381 career) that he's worth a young pre-arb starter with 120 and 111 ERA+ seasons in 06-07?

I hope to God this doesn't come to pass.

I'm not overly excited about a long-term deal for Castillo, given his injury issues. But you're right- there's no match between FA and what the Mets will need.

Perhaps, but if you dangle $12M out there, someone with a contract he doesn't like and bad judgment is going to be willing to deal a player he really ought to hold on to. Someone Omar will be smart enough to take off a sucker's . . . I mean, colleague's . . . hands.

If the Brewers are willing to give the Mets Rickie Weeks for John Maine, I run -- don't walk, RUN -- to make that trade. Are you kidding me??? That is a massive rearranging of our talent base into a more useful shape for 2008. And I love John Maine. But a pitcher who doesn't consistently throw strikes? That's a pitcher you can afford to part with if you have a surplus and a big-time need elsewhere.

Surplus pitching is wonderful. But having a guy ready to come into his own and be a bona fide major league starting pitcher wasting his time in the PCL is also a waste of an asset, for all that time he spends down there. If you don't share my view of Mike Pelfrey's readiness, then fine -- it's not an issue for you. But I just chafe at the idea that half his season next year will be spent tossing innings onto the scrap heap in New Orleans, even if he manages to get half a year in with the big club stepping in for various members of the rotation when they need him to.

Surplus pitching is wonderful. But having a guy ready to come into his own and be a bona fide major league starting pitcher wasting his time in the PCL is also a waste of an asset, for all that time he spends down there. If you don't share my view of Mike Pelfrey's readiness, then fine -- it's not an issue for you. But I just chafe at the idea that half his season next year will be spent tossing innings onto the scrap heap in New Orleans, even if he manages to get half a year in with the big club stepping in for various members of the rotation when they need him to.

Sam, I'm not 100% with you on Pelfrey's readiness, though I like him much more since June, when he began throwing 95-96 again. But where we part is over how good Rickie Weeks is, apparently. Not to say I've given up on Weeks. But for a pitcher of Maine's caliber, entering his age-27 season, not to mention with this full season under his belt (increasing the likelihood he won't tire next season late in the year), I don't want a subpar defensive 2B with a .752 career OPS that he is only marginally besting this year.

Trade Maine for a top-flight 2B? Sure. Trade for Rickie Weeks? You bet. Trade Maine for Weeks? No freakin' way!

Given the Pirates lack of pitching depth (how that is possible given the last 9 drafts, I don't know, but it's the case) and quality OFers, I wonder if something couldn't be worked out between the two teams involving Maine and Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is 30 and won't be around for the next good Pirate team. The Pirates still have Jose Castillo, Jack Wilson, Brian Bixler, Jose Bautista, Neil Walker, and even Xavier Nady to shuffle around the infield. Sanchez is an important part of the Pirate offense, but if the Mets are in WinNow territory, maybe we could grab one of their good OF prospects and Maine. I think Sanchez would bring a much better return than Jack Wilson and it's not clear that Sanchez's additional value surpasses the difference in what you could get by keeping him and trading Wilson.

Sanchez for Maine AND one of the big 3?

three months younger, .314/.470/.448 this year

If Gotay can get on base at a .470 clip, we would be putting him in the Reyes/Wright cornerstone status.

And I love John Maine. But a pitcher who doesn't consistently throw strikes? That's a pitcher you can afford to part with if you have a surplus and a big-time need elsewhere.

Maine is still a fairly young pitcher, and most young pitchers can't consistently throw strikes. If he could, we would be talking about Roy Oswalt here. BTW, this criticism of Maine applies 2-fold towards Pelfrey.

Maine still has room to grow. I wouldn't part with him easily. I also don't see 2B as a big-time need.

Is Russ really Dave Littlefield? :)

maybe we could grab one of their good OF prospects and Maine.

Maine *and* a good OF prospect? Man, are we getting a little giddy now that Littlefield is no longer the GM?

Maine still has room to grow. I wouldn't part with him easily. I also don't see 2B as a big-time need.

Can always move Reyes back to 2B, so what SS can we trade for. I'm kidding of course.

vx,

if it's A-Rod, I'd consider it.

Trade Maine for a top-flight 2B? Sure. Trade for Rickie Weeks? You bet. Trade Maine for Weeks? No freakin' way!

That pretty much sums up my stance as well. I'd offer Humber or Mulvey for Weeks (and yes, I know Harvey will slam the door in my face).

The guy I'd love to get on the cheap from the Brew would be Capuano. He seems like the type of guy that Peterson might be able to fix.

Can always move Reyes back to 2B, so what SS can we trade for. I'm kidding of course.

KazMat may be available this offseason.

Every year, the Mets seem to have to patch the rotation up at times with mediocre starters.

Thats what every team has to do.

One thing to keep in mind is that Orlando Hudson will be a FA after 2008 and Brian Roberts a FA after 2009. Do you want to sign Castillo when you might be able to acquire one of those guys, either via FA or trade?

That pretty much sums up my stance as well. I'd offer Humber or Mulvey for Weeks (and yes, I know Harvey will slam the door in my face).

I'm still pretty high on Humber. His velocity is down a little bit from last season but if he can get back to 92-93 MPH he's got ace potential. He's got command of his fastball and his curve is nasty. If the velocity dip is just temporary, maybe because he is tired after throwing just 150 IP over 2005-2006), he'll be fine.

Humber's curve is a much better secondary pitch than anything Maine features.

Sanchez is an important part of the Pirate offense, but if the Mets are in WinNow territory, maybe we could grab one of their good OF prospects and Maine.

Hah. A guy with a career high OPS+ of 117, entering his 30s, and you're going to get a quality starting pitcher AND an elite prospect for him? Give me a break.

Maine is still a fairly young pitcher, and most young pitchers can't consistently throw strikes. If he could, we would be talking about Roy Oswalt here. BTW, this criticism of Maine applies 2-fold towards Pelfrey.

Yes, it does. And I'd trade Pelfrey for Rickie Weeks, too. Believe me. I think you guys are seriously underrating Weeks' value here. He is young, cheap, and with upside to burn. If you could get him for one starting pitcher, straight up, you have to do it. No doubt, he's had a year to forget -- at least most of it. But even at that, Weeks has put up a .369 OBP -- higher than Mr. Ideal # 2 Hitter Luis Castillo. Think about how expensive Castillo is going to be, and for how long you'd have to sign him, and how fragile he is. Weeks isn't going anywhere, I'm pretty sure. But if we could get him, I'd want him.

I think you guys are seriously underrating Weeks' value here. He is young, cheap, and with upside to burn. If you could get him for one starting pitcher, straight up, you have to do it. No doubt, he's had a year to forget -- at least most of it. But even at that, Weeks has put up a .369 OBP -- higher than Mr. Ideal # 2 Hitter Luis Castillo. Think about how expensive Castillo is going to be, and for how long you'd have to sign him, and how fragile he is. Weeks isn't going anywhere, I'm pretty sure. But if we could get him, I'd want him.


Hey, I like Weeks too, but he's not a sure bet at this point. He's also not young enough to the point where we're not sure that "what we're seeing is what we're going to be getting." I.e, a guy who can get on base, has decent pop, but struggle to hit for a high average. Of greater concern is what his ceiling is as a defensive 2Bman, is he at best an average 2Bman? Finally, keep in mind that he gets hurt frequently and plays a position which punishes the fragile body.

He's like Gotay (+ extra) to me, someone who I like a lot, but have my reservations due to the glove. I'm surprised that you're so high on Weeks given your definitive negativity towards Gotay.

The Mets trade for Rickie Weeks? Hmmm.

Here is the latest on Mr. Weeks: Since returning from his stint in Tripl A on August 10th Rickie's hit .312 with a .495 on-base percentage, and Rickie's averaging 4.63 pitches per plate appearance, which is first on the team. Since Aug. 10, Rickie's got the highest on-base percentage in the NL and the second-highest in baseball behind Alex Rodriguez.

That information courtesy of the Brewers page.

Weeks was among the league leaders in runs scored in the NL in early June of 2006 before hurting his wrist and then sitting out hte last two months. He came back too quick, was dreadful for two months this season, but is now healthy and ripping the bejeesus out of the ball including a 2 homer game against Cincy on Sunday.

Weeks is one of the best basestealers on the team bested only by Corey Hart. Weeks has altered his approach at the plate to reduce the number of hits batsmen so as to avoid further injury.

Weeks was the number one pick from the draft a few years back, the club has invested a LOT of time and effort in making his defense at second base BETTER and there is NO WAY ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH that Doug Melvin is going to give up NOW. Not when it looks like the lad has finally turned the corner.

So while in the abstract a trade might look feasible, it's not. I don't know much but I know enough about the stubbornness of Doug Melvin to know that he ain't letting this kid get away when he's 25 and looking to explode on the league. Weeks has stunk this season and still scored 69 runs on 81 base hits. That's Rickey territory.

The Brewer pitching in 2008? It's Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo and Parra with a catfight for the fifth spot among Villanueva, Capuano, and Bush. My money is on Carlos.

Just my two cents........................

EDIT:

My error. It's 65 runs on 79 base hits. I apologize for any confusion........

#51

I agree with you about Weeks' upside, and I'd do Humber / Mulvey + stuff for him without thinking twice. Even at his current level, a 100 OPS+, with high OBP at 2b is good. But for a cheap above average pitcher like Maine, Weeks' defense is a serious concern.

The Mets could potentially have a logjam next season when it comes to starting pitchers with Pedro, Duque, Glavine, Perez, Duque, Pelfrey and Humber.

I believe the first Duque is El Duque's brother Livan...

I'm still pretty high on Humber. His velocity is down a little bit from last season but if he can get back to 92-93 MPH he's got ace potential. He's got command of his fastball and his curve is nasty. If the velocity dip is just temporary, maybe because he is tired after throwing just 150 IP over 2005-2006), he'll be fine.

Agreed. I love Humber too, but we ain't finding our 2Bman of the future in the trade market by offering Bobby Parnell.

One thing to keep in mind is that Orlando Hudson will be a FA after 2008 and Brian Roberts a FA after 2009.

Mmmm, I'd love to see either in a Mets uniform. But there's this old proverb about a 2Bman on the roster being worth more than two in the bush ...

I'm surprised that you're so high on Weeks given your definitive negativity towards Gotay.

That's a fair comment, so let me address it. Given Gotay's track record, I am far from convinced his year with the bat is a genuine indication of what you can expect from him going forward. And even at that, look at his OBP: his perhaps flukish year, with a .314 BA, has produced "only" a .370 OBP. If I'm unconvinced he can sustain that, or anything close to that, then you have to believe I'm not going to be willing to tolerate a lead glove and poor range. Well, I don't think he can sustain it. I think he's more realistically a .260 hitter, with a corresponding .310 OBP. So the glove is intolerable.

Weeks, OTOH, even at his worst, when he's hitting .260-.270, STILL puts up a .370 OBP. For a guy who can do that, and whom I believe can and will do better as he puts injuries behind him and completes his development, the sky is the limit. For a guy like that, I tolerate the defensive issues. Not happily, mind you . . . but I tolerate them.

The problem is that Doug Melvin is not Dave Littlefield. He's not going to go through all the growing pains, a la Ollie Perez, and then give up the player just as he's ready to put all the pieces together and become the productive, perhaps star, player he had the potential to be all along. But IF . . . if he were willing to, the Mets should be all over the opportunity.

The only thing that creates even the sliver of a chance it could happen is how desperate the Brewers are for quality starting pitching. But you can't steal a Weeks from Melvin for nothing the way we stole Perez for Nady. While Maine would have to be awfully tempting to them -- certainly enough that they'd make a counter-offer of some sort -- Weeks ain't gonna happen. I hope you nay-sayers are happy. You killed a great deal. ;-)

Weeks, OTOH, even at his worst, when he's hitting .260-.270, STILL puts up a .370 OBP.

Actually, Weeks OBP is .369 with a batting average of .232.

And it's "Doug" Melvin.............

Random Thoughts:

1) When the Mets first signed Glavine, did anybody think that we would even be arguing if it was wise for the Mets to sign him for a sixth season at $12 mil?

2) I know the Mets don't do this, but why not use Pelfrey and Humber in the bullpen for a season? They throw hard, and I imagine their stuff would be pretty intimidating for one inning. Pelfrey especially has shown a bit of butterflies in the majors. I think a year in the pen might be the ideal way to break him in.

3) I'm not trading John Maine. The guy has a very, very good fastball. I think he has the type of fastball that could make him a true ace. He strikes guys out. His walk rate isn't alarmingly high. His secondary pitches and control need work, but he's only 26 and has already shown that he can be effective with what he has. I think there is real upside with Maine, no downside and he's cheap.

4) I'm not feeling Rickie Weeks. I'll ride with Ruben Gotay.

Actually, Weeks OBP is .369 with a batting average of .232.

Makes my point even more powerful. That is a player to grow with.

There is nothing -- nothing -- better than to have patience with a young player and then watch the pay-off. I am pretty darned sure the Brewers are going to have that pleasure with Mr. Weeks. Big time.

And it's "Doug" Melvin.............

That's what I wrote. Might want to check those lenses, HW.

(Man, I love that edit feature!)

I will tell you who I DO think is available on the Brewers roster.

Bill Hall.

I kid you not. For various reasons too long to recount Hall has been relegated to a semi-platoon role with Gabe Gross and isn't happy about it. Corey Hart has filled in at center and done well. My guess is that if someone came along with some arms and maybe a backup catcher Melvin wouldn't blink.

Hall is signed to an inexpensive contract, he could play second base (pretty well I might add) and freed from Ned Yost's bullsh*t would come back with a .280/.350/.510 season in Shea. Yost and Hall are at odds and it's one of the unspoken elements that has made this team so schizoid. And trust me, it ain't Billy.

Think about it...............

3) I'm not trading John Maine. The guy has a very, very good fastball. I think he has the type of fastball that could make him a true ace. He strikes guys out. His walk rate isn't alarmingly high. His secondary pitches and control need work, but he's only 26 and has already shown that he can be effective with what he has. I think there is real upside with Maine, no downside and he's cheap.

Agreed. And I've seen that slider Maine throws - at times, that's a hell of slider - starts off towards the middle and breaks just off the plate. If he harnesses that pitch (10-20% chance?), that's two plus pitches in the arsenal.

When I say using Maine as a centerpiece, I mean using Maine to get someone of high impact. Someone more than Rickie Weeks, which is substantial since I like Weeks almost as much as Sam and agree with most of his points regarding Week's abilities.

And as follow up with Jenkins going to be a free agent my guess is that it's pick'em of Hart/Gross in Center and right with LaPorta in left field by May. I don't know if anyone has had a chance to see the kid but he's something else. If you think Ryan Braun has light tower power you ain't seen nothing yet. LaPorta's bat must be nuclear powered.

Now in left he makes Dunn look agile. But the boy can flat out HIT....................

So, Mulvey for Hall?

Or Mulvey / Humber + stuff for Hall?

Bill Hall.

I kid you not. . . . My guess is that if someone came along with some arms and maybe a backup catcher Melvin wouldn't blink.

The Mets don't have a catcher (back up or otherwise) to offer, if that's what it would take.

I like Hall a lot, but not for John Maine. Then too, we'll have to wait and see if the source of the conflict isn't removed if Yost is sent packing sometime in October.

Bill Hall.

I kid you not. For various reasons too long to recount Hall has been relegated to a semi-platoon role with Gabe Gross and isn't happy about it. Corey Hart has filled in at center and done well. My guess is that if someone came along with some arms and maybe a backup catcher Melvin wouldn't blink.

Hall is signed to an inexpensive contract, he could play second base (pretty well I might add) and freed from Ned Yost's bullsh*t would come back with a .280/.350/.510 season in Shea. Yost and Hall are at odds and it's one of the unspoken elements that has made this team so schizoid. And trust me, it ain't Billy.

Think about it...............


Funny, Harvey, Hall was the player I was thinking about before we broke off into this Weeks love/hatefest. My only concern would be whether he can relearn 2B after spending a year in the OF. But his upside is worth giving an extended look and his value should be down after a poor season.

Mulvey / Humber + stuff for Hall?

Why do people keep equating Mulvey and Humber? They're not similar tiers in my eyes.

BTW, this kid Dylan Owen has looked good down in Brooklyn.

Sam/Raskal:

Well, I wrote maybe a catcher. That would be helpful with Damian Miller having turned 50 and now shooting everything to right field when at bat. Miller's a great guy and pretty much the mirror opposite of Estrada (who is a poor defensive catcher, something of a jerk, a decent hitter) but Milwaukee needs an alternative.

Hall really hasn't had a bad year except after two really good ones everyone expected more at age 27. But he agreed to move to center, fussed nonstop over his defense and by his own admission got away from his hitting routines, got hot in June, got hurt, came back too soon to try and help, didn't hit, got benched, b*tched about it in public, p*ssed of Ned, got benched AGAIN in San Fran, b*tched AGAIN, and has since been in that timeshare with Gross who got hot after returning from Nashville.

Basically, it's been one big "F*CK YOU" year to Bill courtesy of the baseball gods. WIth a helping hand from a petty little twerp looking to show everyone who is boss.

HW, I guess Rod Barajas is no starting point for a trade for Bill Hall, is he? :) Boy, I would like Hall as the Phils 3B but they really don't have much to trade.

I'd certainly be interested in a deal for Hall, but I don't know there's a match there. Maine is too much to give up, and if not him, then who? Melvin isn't going to sell Hall cheap, regardless of what's gone on this season. The Brewers are going to want someone who is major-league ready. It'd be interesting to know what Melvin thinks of Humber, I suppose, but even if he thinks Humber is better than his back of the rotation options, I seriously doubt he thinks that difference is worth Hall's value.

If I were Melvin, the best way to recoup Hall's value is the simplest and most direct: fire Yost. Of course, that still leaves him needing a starting pitcher and a reliever or five.

#69

I don't think that they're equivalent either. I added Humber because Mulvey for Hall sounds too lopsided.

Not to jump on the small market thing, but at some point, doesn't Melvin need to plan his future payrolls projecting some massive increases? All those young players are going to be expensive in a few years. I would guess that Hall is coming up on arbitration fairly soon.

Raskal:

They signed Bill to a 4 year deal this past offseason. I am sure you can find the total somewhere.

The only free agent is Jenkins who is almost certainly going to be allowed to find another home.

Sheets is in his walk year in 2008.

Since we're talking about good-hit, bad glove 2Bmen who may be available, I'm wondering what the status of Jeff Keppinger will be this offseason. Talk about a guy who can rake and he's blocked off completely in the Reds organization.

Also, Maine for Brandon Phillips - fair deal or no? (Not that Phillips is available or anything.)

Sam:

As a follow up and what no Brewer fan wants to talk about is that by attacking Hall Yost has almost certainly alienated the other African-American players on the team. You know, guys like Weeks and FIELDER. Fielder was already hot when they demoted Weeks for poor performance while guys like Capuano stayed in the rotation. Then the Hall thing. Publicly criticizing Bill Hall for poor play is akin to p*ssing on Fielder's cleats. Do you REALLY want to go there??

If the Brewers pull this thing out it will be because they played the 1940 Cleveland Indians with Yost as Vitt.

Also, Maine for Brandon Phillips - fair deal or no? (Not that Phillips is available or anything.)

I'd MUCH rather have Rickie Weeks than Brandon Phillips. Give me a guy who has the essential baseball skill of getting his ass on base and its corresponding blessing: not making outs. Brandon Phillips makes outs like Keebler elves make cookies: by the thousands. I don't want a second baseman with a .330 OBP in his best year. Pass.

Sam:

But Phillips is an astounding defensive player. Should be playing shortstop.

But he's a local hero in Cincy. There is NO CHANCE he gets traded.

Second baseman worth a look:

Esteban German has been in the majors for about 700 at bats and has a .370 OBP and decent defense.

Martin Prado is 23 years old, has a career .352 minor league OBP and hit .316 at Richmond. Kelly JOhnson at second. Maybe the Braves do something?

Sam, you'd rather have Bill Hall than Brandon Phillips? They're both flawed players, but 2Bmen who can slug 500 are worth something. Not sure if it's worth Maine, but it's worth something.

Harvey, since we have you here. What happened to Capuano this year? At the beginning of the year, he looked like he would complement Sheets and Gallardo to bring the Brew to the glory days. Is it fixable or is he just not that good?

They're both flawed players, but 2Bmen who can slug 500 are worth something.

Brandon Phillips doesn't slug .500 in Shea Stadium, I'll tell you that. Of course, there's only one more season to play in the ol' ball yard anyway. Who knows about Citifield?

Sam, you'd rather have Bill Hall than Brandon Phillips?

I'd rather pay the price it would take to acquire Hall than Phillips, yes. But as HW points out, Phillips is going nowhere anyway so it's a moot point anyway.

Phillips? Weeks? Meh. I can see Omar giving a nice 3 year contract to Luis Castillo.

Regarding Phillps, the guy is a total hacker. I see him 15 plus times a year and he's an easy out if you can control your breaking stuff. But if you fall behind and throw him a fastball WATCH OUT. And note that despite 28 homers he still hasn't breached the .500 slugging percentage barrier. These are just fly balls that sailed a bit further in 2007. He could well slug over .500 next season as he will be 27 and playing in the bandbox that is GAB. But understand that he will always have holes in his swing.

Raskal:

Actually, what isn't understood is that Capuano has been BAD since July 2006. He's won all of six games (6!) since the All-Star Break of 2006 and with an ERA almost 6. Guys like Silver, Gassko, etc. want to put the blame on the defense. And while the defense hasn't been good it ain't generating no 7.00 plus ERA since May which is what Capuano has done. Why is it a guy like Gallardo and Sheets can get guys out but Capuano can't?

Everybody looks at his strikeout rate and think, "Oh, Braun has killed this team with his defense." But I will tell you that when Capuano is pitching who is playing behind him almost doesn't matter. He isn't giving up bloops. He is giving up ROCKETS. As to "why", he simply cannot change speeds sufficiently well to offset the loss of movement on his pitches. WAY too many 89 mph fastballs thigh high or change ups not dropping enough on their way to the plate. Everything is between 79-89 with little wiggle. It's a recipe for disaster. And that is what we have.

What has baffled Brewer fans is "Where is Mike Maddux?". But Maddux has gone MIA the past four months. You don't even read his name in the paper. It's Yost, Yost, Yost all the time.

Another thing that has me concerned........................

I can't believe no one has hit on the obvious solution: Maine for Brian Roberts!

vx,

if it's A-Rod, I'd consider it.

I'm sure more knowledgable people than me have already poured scorn on it, but is there no possibility that A-Rod could play second? That would nicely solve the problem.

Post 86:

It was actually mentioned today in another thread. But A-rod is 32 and 6'4". That's about as odd a combination as you will find at second.

The biggest call I can recall, not that my memory is perfect, is Bobby Grich at 6'2". And Grich's career got short-circuited due to back problems which weren't helped by the twisting required by a second baseman.

But if anyone could pull it off it's the lad in New York. Not that anyone would say thank you or anything..................

If I'm unconvinced he can sustain that, or anything close to that, then you have to believe I'm not going to be willing to tolerate a lead glove and poor range. Well, I don't think he can sustain it. I think he's more realistically a .260 hitter, with a corresponding .310 OBP. So the glove is intolerable.


What if he's a .280/.330 hitter? Gotay has a pretty high BABIP but that's not all luck. His LD% is 25.5. The guy has hit the ball hard as a Met. I have little doubt that Gotay can hit enough to be a regular. The guy has an idea of the strike zone and I think he'll walk enough.

If the Mets swoop in and sign A-Rod, it would almost -- almost -- be worth moving David Wright to second base, just to have the enormous fun of calling up my brother and uncle (Yankee fans, both of 'em) and simply laughing. Not saying anything, mind you. Just . . . laughing. Then sending them repeated e-mails, with nothing but laughter typed.

Not quite worth it. But almost.

By the way, I think the Mets would be best served in finding a legit glove at second and worry about the bat second. Better for the young pitchers. Not that a .310 OBP is ok or anything. But them plumbers around the infield will cause your gut to rot over the course of a season.........

Yeah Harvey's, I went to the A-Rod thread straight after posting this and thought "Yes, it has been debunked". Shame there's no place for him really - I imagine that if Omar was interested, everyone would laugh just like when he went after Pedro and Beltran too.

Better for the young pitchers.

Yup. Pedro, El Duque, and Glavine. Those kid pitchers. You can see them melting down out there when Weeks (or Gotay) botches a tailor-made 4-6-3 DP ball . . . . ;-)

Seriously, though, the two Mets' starters MOST likely to benefit from having solid defense also happen to be the ones least likely to throw grounders: Maine and Perez. Both are strong fly ball/strike out pitchers.

Wright said he would move to the outfield for A-Rod. Couldn't be any worse than Alou out there. Or, maybe we move Wright to first and dump Delgado.

You can't move Wright to 2B. I've thought about that, but putting the face of the franchise at risk by asking him to play such a demanding position, and having him learn a completely new set of skills, that's too risky. But if David could pull that off...

Also, I'm not as convinced as everyone else that IPOR won't be able to hit enough to carry the 2B position. This season has been mildly encouraging, especially since he got better with the bat late in the year.

David Wright isn't switching positions.

The Mets don't need ARod. I'm not saying he wouldn't help - he would help anyone, being the best player in the game and all - but they don't need him. They have a really solid team and ARod doesn't fill the holes they have. Plus you'd have to sign him long term and by the end of the contract, maybe even the last half, depending on length, he'd be the highest paid player and not the best. I doubt he'd ever be an albatross, barring injury, but given the Mets strengths and ARod's skills, I think it would be a waste of money for them.

ARod doesn't fill the holes they have. Plus you'd have to sign him long term and by the end of the contract, maybe even the last half, depending on length, he'd be the highest paid player and not the best. I doubt he'd ever be an albatross, barring injury, but given the Mets strengths and ARod's skills, I think it would be a waste of money for them.

A-Rod would fill the 1B hole for the next 5-10 years. Only thing is, A-Rod would be a fool to hurt his legacy by moving rightward on the defensive spectrum prematurely (pipe down, Nomar).

A-Rod would fill the 1B hole for the next 5-10 years.

Yeah, except he's becoming available a year too early. Delgado is making about 40 gazillion dollars to play 1B in 2008, and is essentially untradeable. So what are you going to do? And like you say, A-Rod isn't going to move to 1B anytime soon since he doesn't have to do so, having lots of other choices.

But it remains absolutely delicious to contemplate signing him away from the guys in the Bronx. I have to assume that even the potential the Mets might get into it would lead the Yankees to pay virtually anything to prevent it. Chortle, chortle.

Delgado is making about 40 gazillion dollars to play 1B in 2008, and is essentially untradeable. So what are you going to do? And like you say, A-Rod isn't going to move to 1B anytime soon since he doesn't have to do so, having lots of other choices.

Sunk costs. And he's not *completely* untradeable, the Mets would likely have to eat a nice portion of the contract. Sluggers with big names are sometimes moveable, see: Sheffield, Gary. Everyone is looking for a "proven" run producer.