Thanks for the first round pick, Atlanta!

Have a good year, Tom. Just don't beat us.

And balance is restored to the universe.

Ahh well, its a decent contract. Am not too perturbed about losing the first round pick, as we have a fairly well stocked farm for right now. And Glavine is probably the best option on the FA market.

It's going to be interesting to see how Tommy Boy does for the Braves. He did have a 3.88 ERA on September 19th before absolutely getting crushed in his last three starts. His k/9 really dropped like a rock though. I wouldn't be surprised if Glavine gave the Braves a 4.00-4.25 ERA next season or if his ERA is over 5. It's going to be interesting if he can reinvent himself one more time.

I'll look forward to 7-run first innings for you guys in the most important damn games of the year.

The 18th overall pick will be an excellent opportunity for the Mets to show that they are now willing to go well over slot to sign some Boras client before the Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox get a shot at them.

Also, the supplemental pick will be a good time to select Cutter Dykstra who will someday join Reyes in the Mets MIF and at the top of the lineup. Then order will have truly been restored in the universe.

Yikes. Giving up the 18th pick for a superannuated southpaw on a 1 year contract? This is a triumph of emotion over reason.

I would have gladly -- gladly traded one year of Tom Glavine for the 18th pick in the draft. No questions asked.

Despite his late-season collapse, I'm glad Glavine came to the Mets, and he contribued mightily to the Mets' rise from the dead to consistent contention. I think the Braves will get an upgrade at the back of their rotation, reliable near league-average pitching. That's probably worth $8M in this market, when you put the emphasis on the "reliable" part. But whether it's worth $8M plus a first-round pick, I have serious doubts, especially when it's almost certainly going to be just one year. I wouldn't have done it if I were Wren.

Glavine's return to Shea will sure be fun.

You'd think I'd wish someone leaving the Mets for the Braves ill, but he's all class. I wish him luck in any non-Mets game, assuming the Braves are safely out of the race.

A 7-run first at Shea would be just fine, however.

That's probably worth $8M in this market, when you put the emphasis on the "reliable" part. But whether it's worth $8M plus a first-round pick

It depends on where you are in the success cycle. The braves have a mix of youth and aging superstars, and the old ones are the core of this team. If we can get decent RELIABLE pitching, the Braves have a very good shot at the playoffs in 2008. In that sense, it is worth rolling the dice with Glavine.
Also you have to factor in that the Braves have had loads of good luck with their prospects of late, so they can afford to miss a first round pick without causing any harm to their developmental machine.

This is a triumph of emotion over reason.

There was nothing reasonable about the Braves 4th and 5th starters last year. If Glavine had been one of them, the Braves would likely have had the fortune of getting mowed down by the Rockies in the NLDS. Worst case: he blows up. Even if he does, he will have done so in a far classier way than Mark Redman did for them last year, and it will have only cost them some money. My guess: he put up slightly below-average work as an innings eater, which will have value.

The draft pick is close to meaningless for the Braves at the moment. They are a solid starter away from the playoffs and are built to win now. They can worry about not having had that 18th pick in four years when it might have made a difference.

They can worry about not having had that 18th pick in four years when it might have made a difference.

Ture that. The Braves have plenty of talent that will be ready for the majors in 4 years anyhow. Hayward will be a beast, and I think Schafer will be quite good as well. And there's Gorkys park, of Scorpions fame. It'd be a different story if the Braves somehow had the Astros farm system.

The draft pick is close to meaningless for the Braves at the moment.

I couldn't disagree more. For a team with significant but hardly unlimited resources, and which has an excellent history of drafting well, NO first-round pick is "close to meaningless." It is essential to keep feeding the pipeline so you can keep replacing the players you want to trade for the Teixeiras, and the Andruw Joneses you decide you can't or don't want to afford. Perhaps -- perhaps -- you can say giving it up is worth it for Glavine because 2008 is a big-time target year, and you'd have a case. I'd disagree with it, but you'd have a case.

But there's no case for believing that a first-round pick is meaningless to the Braves. In fact, I think that there are few teams in baseball for whom first-round picks are MORE important.

Does the draft pick automatically go to the Mets now? They don't even need to offer arb, right?

If so, I don't like this deal. I guess if you're going to 'go for it' in 2008 it makes sense, but I'd rather look beyond. Ah, well.

There was nothing reasonable about the Braves 4th and 5th starters last year.

(looks it up).

Last year, Atlanta's 4th & 5th starters allowed 211 earned runs in 325.7 IP for an ERA of 5.83 and an ERA+ of 73. I looked this up last year - an average fourth starter gives you an ERA+ of about 90 and an average 5th starter posts at about 78. That's a good 66 starts they got from sub-replacement level pitchers. Ouch.

But there's no case for believing that a first-round pick is meaningless to the Braves. In fact, I think that there are few teams in baseball for whom first-round picks are MORE important.

Sam, you're confusing me here. Is the pick important to the Braves, or is it not?

The Braves always draft well. They'll find a handful of gems in the later rounds anyhow. They've probably identified 15 kids in some Athens, GA, neighborhood that will be all stars in 7 years.

Last year, Atlanta's 4th & 5th starters allowed 211 earned runs in 325.7 IP for an ERA of 5.83 and an ERA+ of 73. I looked this up last year - an average fourth starter gives you an ERA+ of about 90 and an average 5th starter posts at about 78. That's a good 66 starts they got from sub-replacement level pitchers. Ouch.

QED!
And it also buys an extra year for the likes of Reyes/Jurrjens. And a longer look at Hanson/Lefty factory in single A

I must say, I think the Braves are the favorites to be the best team in the NL next season and I don't see anything any other team in the NL can do to match them. Barring a Cy Young calibre season by Pedro or marked improvement from their younger starters, I think the Braves are the team to beat.

I must say, I think the Braves are the favorites to be the best team in the NL next season and I don't see anything any other team in the NL can do to match them. Barring a Cy Young calibre season by Pedro or marked improvement from their younger starters, I think the Braves are the team to beat.

I think the Mets or the Phillies are close to the beat team in the NL next year, and no way the Braves can win the pennant over any of them.

</counter reverse jinx>

I don't see it as anything but post-collapse and post-braves-domination brain damage that makes the Braves favorites in the NL next year. I'm not seeing it. Can you back up your assertion, Russlan?

I agree with Sam M. in 14 completely.

That pick is very important to the Braves. They've had long-term success b/c they haven't been willing to nonchalantly sacrifice the future for the present. The fact that their farm system is strong and deep (and it is) is reason to believe that this isn't just a "win now" team. They have the money to hold on to Teixeira and McCann and add a star to make up for the loss of Chipper and Smoltz in coming year and they have good pieces getting close. Between Francoer, Brandon Jones, Schafer, G. Hernandez, Heyward and maybe even Cody Johnson their outfield could be a real strength without even adding anyone and 3/4 of their infield is young along with their catcher.

The NL East should be pretty competitive next year, I think, with at least 2 of the Braves, Mets and Phillies being very strong teams.

The reverse jinx thing worked so well in September that Mets fans are going back to it like Randolph kept going back to Mota.

Braves had the 2nd highest run differential in the NL last year next to the Rockies. And that's with, as noted, a 94.56 ERA from the back of the rotation.

They are poised for 2008. Beyond 2008...it gets cloudier. And giving up these draft picks doesn't help.

It's time for the farce that is draft pick compensation to be taken out back and shot. The big beneficiaries in recent years of this have been big market teams like the Red Sox and Mets, whereas the intended beneficiaries (the Pirates and the D-Rays, e.g.) either trade their stars before they leave for free agency or just don't have players good enough to merit compensation. It's working exactly backwards.

Consider: the Braves are losing Andruw Jones, stalwart of their team the last 10 years. For him they'll get back a compensatory second round pick, if that. They're signing Tom Glavine, a mediocre 41 year old starter on his last legs. To get him, they give up the 18th pick in the draft. How is that possibly fair? Why on earth do the Mets need "compensation" for losing Glavine?

Even more bizarre is the fact that no one in the Atlanta media (with the possible exception of Dave O'brien on his blog) has mentioned the draft pick as part of the compensation needed to get glavine. Do I need to call Frank Wren and remind him? Even given we want to sign Glavine, doesn't it make a modicum of sense to at least give the Mets the chance of not offering him arbitration?

Oh well. The Georgia high school kid we would have taken at 18 might be available in the second round anyway.

Smoltz continues to churn out Cy Young calibre seasons with ease. He's been the best pitcher in the divison since returning to the rotation and while I'd like to see him break down eventually, I've been waiting for three years and he's been nothing but spectacular. Hudson isn't quite as good as last year (flukey hr/9) but still a durable, #2 type starter. James peripherals suck but he might be a DIPs-defier. Glavine should be a reliable, innings eater. Hampton/Jurrjens/Reyes should be decent in the fifth spot, or they could swing a deal later on.

Their bullpen is a problem but Soriano/Gonzalez/Moylan is a start. It needs work and right now this is the weakest part of the team. They'll need to figure something out but they have some guys who go deep into games.

The offense is just spectacular. They have Jones who is still as good as it gets when he's healthy. Johnson was Chase Utley-lite last season against righties. Teixeira is a monster. McCann isn't 2006-good but he's better than last year. Escobar was impressive in his debut and should be at least average at short. Frenchy is starting to figure things out and I think he is going to have a good year in 2008. Diaz can hit. They'll sign a Cameron or Bradley to play center and have one of the best offenses in the game.

That's what I think.

I agree completely about free agent compensation. It's proving to have the exact opposite of its intended effect.

Lenny Dykstra's son is named Cutter? I can't say that I'm surprised in the least.

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He has two sons that will be available in this upcoming draft. Allan, a 1b that plays for Wake Forest and Cutter, a shortstop prep prospect.

For him they'll get back a compensatory second round pick, if that.

They get a supplemental pick after the first round for Andruw.

The big beneficiaries in recent years of this have been big market teams like the Red Sox and Mets, whereas the intended beneficiaries (the Pirates and the D-Rays, e.g.) either trade their stars before they leave for free agency or just don't have players good enough to merit compensation. It's working exactly backwards.

I have been saying this for a couple of years now, Kyle. I can send you a free subscription to my newsletter.

Allan Dykstra isn't Lenny's son.

Allan Dykstra bares no relation to Lenny.

Their bullpen is a problem but Soriano/Gonzalez/Moylan is a start. It needs work and right now this is the weakest part of the team.

If it's the weakest part of the team, I think that says a lot about the strength of the rest of the team. I think the bullpen is in pretty good shape. Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan is a nice start as you mention, but Gonzalez will be out until May or June. Nonetheless, I'm expecting good things from Manny Acosta and Joey Devine in 2008. Devine is out of options, so he'll be on the team instead of shuttling back and forth - we'll finally get to see what he can do when given an extended opportunity. Acosta looked great last year. Royce Ring should be an adequate lefty, and they'll have several options for long-men depending on who gets left out of the rotation.

They get a supplemental pick after the first round for Andruw.

Only if they offer arbitration.

They won't.

Well then....MY BAD.

I was going to say, funny how one son got all the size and power where the other one gets all the quickness and speed.

Sickels gave the Braves farm system ten B's or better in his 2008 prospect list. The only team to have that many in the 2007 book was the Rockies.

It appears the Braves are gonna trust the hard-throwing kids (Acosta, Devine, and Ascanio) with the middle innings during 2008. I assume Ring will be the designated lefty-killer. Medlen isn't too far away. Yates should continue to get strikeouts and prevent homers, but walk too many people and be horribly inconsistent. Gonzalez will return at some point. Blaine Boyer, Phil Stockman, and Chris Resop are other options. The "best" of Cormier, Carlyle, and Bennett will handle long-man duties.

There are enough live arms to fill out the pen beyond Soriano, Moylan, and (eventually) Gonzalez.

Bennett has been consistently good since he returned from arm surgery. If the Braves didn't have last year's back of the rotation nightmares, they might have actually gambled with giving him a rotation spot.

Many a bullpen crashed and burned with that same plan. The Braves would be wise to acquire a reliever or two.

Sickels gave the Braves farm system ten B's or better in his 2008 prospect list. The only team to have that many in the 2007 book was the Rockies.

The Braves system is top 3 as far as I can tell.

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a Top 3 system needs star power. I really don't see any current star prospects in their system. A player like Heyward is just too far away and not enough minor league data to be considered a star prospect.

Really, Russlan? I thought the CW on building a bullpen was not to overpay for 90% of relievers because their year-to-year performance is too volatile. Sure, I'd love another MLB-proven reliever, but would not be ready to pay a premium for one. I'd much rather give the kids a shot, especially given the Braves' finances. Worst case scenario, the Braves have to use some of the depth in the low minors to acquire another arm or two during the summer.

I don't know why a Top 3 system needs star power. I think the strength of the Braves' system is actually its mix of near-major league ready talent (Lillibridge, Jones, Jurrjens) and very high-ceilinged young talent (Heyward, Teheran, Hernandez). There's a very good balance there. That Jordan Schafer guy at the top doesn't exactly hurt either. That's a pretty nasty system.

Depending on how you rate star power v. depth some possibilities to rank ahead of the Braves:

TB - Longoria, Price, McGee, Davis...
Cin - Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Votto...
LA - Kershaw, Laroche, Hu
Bos - Buckholtz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Anderson, Masterson, Bowden...
Det - Maybin, Porcello... just those 2 might be enough.

TB - Longoria, Price, McGee, Davis...
Cin - Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Votto...
LA - Kershaw, Laroche, Hu
Bos - Buckholtz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Anderson, Masterson, Bowden...
Det - Maybin, Porcello... just those 2 might be enough.

TB- Maybe, probably. Man, the AL East is a scary looking division for the next 5 years. Now all teams are going to be able to come at you with pitching too. Kazmir, Shields, and Price? Are you kidding me? That's disgusting. Get these guys some gloves behind them and this team is getting serious by '09.

Cin- No, but close. Bailey stinks though. I mean, that's exaggerating it to some extent, but he's really overhyped.

LA- No. Close though.

Bos- No. Recused.

Det- Not close. This system is awful when you get past these two. I know its taboo to say too, but Maybin's game has some major holes too. Porcello has reached demi-god status though.

I guess thats where we differ in evaluating systems. I tend to grade systems higher that have more studs because there are a limited amount of star players in the majors and the goal is to develop star players (or at least for me that is the case).

TB definitely has star power. Cin with arguably the top prospect in the minors overtakes the Braves for me. A guy like Buccholz edges Boston over Atlanta for me. Thats three off the top of my head right now.

I like the Braves system, its deep. The problem I have is that the majority of their high ceiling talent are in the low minors, which allows for more variables for things to go wrong before they reach the majors.

Sure, I'd love another MLB-proven reliever, but would not be ready to pay a premium for one. I'd much rather give the kids a shot, especially given the Braves' finances. Worst case scenario, the Braves have to use some of the depth in the low minors to acquire another arm or two during the summer.

There's always a bunch of teams that say they'll just throw a bunch of stuff at the wall, see what sticks, and fix things on the fly. Come July 31st, teams are falling all over each other for relievers available because it is really hard to find those few decent relievers off the scrap heap. With Gonzalez's healthy likely to be an issue all year, I personally think they'd be smart to find a reliable arm or two.

BTW, I know that Bradley and Hunter are Type A free agents. If the Braves sign one of these guys, do the Mets get the first rounder or would the Padres or Twins get that pick?

BTW, I know that Bradley and Hunter are Type A free agents. If the Braves sign one of these guys, do the Mets get the first rounder or would the Padres or Twins get that pick?

Tom Glavine has a rating of 79.327.

Milton Bradley [72.809]
Torii Hunter [77.215]

So, the Mets, as I understand it, would get the pick in either of those cases.

The two guys we don't want the Braves to sign?

Aaron Rowand [80.449]
Francisco Cordero [83.657]

I can't wait to see which college reliever the Mets pick with the 18th pick in the draft.

I can't wait to see which college reliever the Mets pick with the 18th pick in the draft.

Don't worry. They'll pass up a sure-fire superstar position player to draft a mediocre pitcher like Humber and Pelfrey.

If it was this year's draft they would have passed on Porcello in order not to risk losing Kunz.

Not that they should have brought Glavine back - it was the right time to part ways - but I'm starting to get the feeling Omar's building for 2009 and writing next year (and likely his current manager) off.

Sure, the Mets haven't had a decent last couple of drafts, but they did fine before that. And even in the last 2 drafts, they found Mulvey and Smith.
2 first round picks and a supp is a good way to bolster that farm, unless you are Ed Creech and the Pirates.

I must say, I think the Braves are the favorites to be the best team in the NL next season and I don't see anything any other team in the NL can do to match them. Barring a Cy Young calibre season by Pedro or marked improvement from their younger starters, I think the Braves are the team to beat.

You can make an argument for the Braves, Phils, and Mets, but I don't think the Braves are anywhere close to the team to beat.

They have a gaping hole in CF that, at the moment, is filled by a guy with a .666 OPS in Round Rock next year.

They are 95% likely to experience a dropoff at SS.

There is virtually no chance that Matt Diaz repeats his .378 BABIP in 2008. Willie Harris sucks.

Chipper Jones has missed an average of 40 games per year the last 4 years.

Kelly Johnson is a solid player but couldn't carry Utley's jock with an electric jock carrying machine. .267 .353 .430 .783 after April.

The points about the back of the rotation are legit, but how much better than Buddy Carlyle does Glavine project to be? He certainly should be better, but significantly better? And who is the 5th starter? Presumably, its Hampton who hasn't thrown a ML pitch in 3 years, and if not for a fluky 2003, has not had league average peripherals since Bill Clinton.

electric jock carrying machine

Every clubhouse attendant's dream...

Hmm I think the top 3 teams are close, but I don't think the reasons you gave entirely correct. Braves had a pretty good pythagoras last year and they have a chance to get better.

They have a gaping hole in CF that, at the moment, is filled by a guy with a .666 OPS in Round Rock next year.

Josh Anderson is not the incumbent to play in CF. At worst, he is going to be platooning in CF. Plus our CF last year had a pretty replaceable 725 OPS.

They are 95% likely to experience a dropoff at SS.

Escobar might in line for a dropoff, but I don't know how you are so certain. Apart from one year in AA, when he had all sorts of issues with management, he has pretty sterling numbers. Plus his defence is an upgrade over Renteria.

There is virtually no chance that Matt Diaz repeats his .378 BABIP in 2008. Willie Harris sucks.
His BABIP in 2006 was 373. And its not like he has any speed to lose. If Harris isn't DFA-ed, he is just going to be a utility man. Diaz's platoon mate is going to be Brandon Jones, who is a well regarded rookie.

Chipper Jones has missed an average of 40 games per year the last 4 years.

Hopefully this year's backup will be better than Chris Woodward. The dropoff might actually come in the games Chipper plays.

Kelly Johnson is a solid player but couldn't carry Utley's jock with an electric jock carrying machine. .267 .353 .430 .783 after April.

streaky player who really sucked in Sept. Tiredness maybe, because he had been working from last september. Plus he doesn't need to be Utley. a 800+ OPS with good OBP is more than fine from 2B.

how much better than Buddy Carlyle does Glavine project to be? He certainly should be better

One hopes that Glavine is significantly better than 107 ip of 82 ERA+. Hampton isn't being counted on for much. This time, the Braves have reasonable depth at that position. not to defend Hampton, but he is an extreme GB pitcher. You can't go on peripherals for him. before 2005, threw a bunch of innings at above league average.

McCann should be better. Frenchy might be better. A full year of Tex. There are reasons to be optimistic, but obviously there are dropoffs too ( Chipper maybe, SS maybe, Hudson ), and the rotation is a question mark. If the Braves get good pitching, they should be the favourites.

</i>The Braves would be wise to acquire a reliever or two.</i>

Ron Mahay. You don't think dumping Oscar Villarreal's arb payday was about getting Josh Anderson, do you?

It's time for the farce that is draft pick compensation to be taken out back and shot. The big beneficiaries in recent years of this have been big market teams like the Red Sox and Mets, whereas the intended beneficiaries (the Pirates and the D-Rays, e.g.) either trade their stars before they leave for free agency or just don't have players good enough to merit compensation. It's working exactly backwards.

1) If a team's in contention, they're more likely to hold onto guys they would otherwise trade.
2) Teams that trade their desired players often get more than a 1st round pick's worth of value in return.
3) The draft is a crapshoot, even in the 1st round (which is why I'm not qualifying my #2 with a "I might be wrong" clause).
4) Of late, the Pirates have been beyond whatever help these sorts of compensation systems can provide.

Witty line about KJ aside, his OPS was much higher than Utley's during the age 25 season of both. Someting to think about. I'm not exactly sure why we should exclude April, either; it happened, did it not?

Essex, I agree with all your points. I'm not sure if your argument is for or against compensation. Given your point #2, what's the point of having it at all? Teams about to lose a free agent can always trade him before he leaves. Therefore, the only teams who still have free agents to lose are the ones who kept them for a stretch run (your point #1). These teams are usually (not always, cf twins/marlins/a's, i know!) big market teams, who don't need compensation as they can easily sign new free agents.

It seems like a no-brainer to abolish it. The player's union should be happy, as it lowers the true cost of signing a player and should increase the quantity of free agents demanded by teams. I don't think abolishing comp would necessarily result in higher salaries, but it might - there would be more interest in all free agents. Small market teams shouldn't care about losing it, as they already receive little benefit anyway.

So how do the Braves draw this out to get out of giving a draft pick to the Mets?

Given your point #2, what's the point of having it at all?

The point of having the compensation is less about competitive balance and more about a brake against salary inflation. The cost of acquiring Glavine is $8m plus the loss of the value of the #1 pick; if there was no pick lost, conceptually, the Braves could (would?) have been willing to pay Glavine more than $8m. Remember, the compensation for FAs has been a hotly contested part of the negotiations of pretty much every CBA since the Seitz decision three decades ago.