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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Goold: Albert Pujols & the Cardinals’ Agents of Victory

It cannot be a coincidence then that in the past two seasons protecting Pujols has become more of a crusade for manager Tony La Russa, especially since the departure of Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. Consider Pujols batting average and slugging percentage over the previous two seasons split between wins and losses:

Pujols in wins: .391 BA … .820 SLG

Pujols in losses: .282 BA … .458 SLG

Differences: +.109 BA … +.362 SLG

For context, realize that Pujols slugged .431 better in wins this season than in losses, and that difference was bigger than Chipper Jones’ total slugging percentage, Alfonso Soriano’s total slugging percentage and Jimmy Rollins’ total slugging percentage. Thirty-four of the 76 players who qualified for the batting title in the NL this season had a lower slugging percentage than the difference between Pujols’ win SLG and loss SLG.

The going theory has been if an opponent pitches around Pujols, it takes another Cardinal to win the game. These splits appear so profound that maybe the theory isn’t simple enough. Unplug Pujols, and you unplug the Cardinals. The uncanny impact he has on the lineup in wins was a .400 average one season and an .800 slugging the next. He gets so many hits that it seems almost trivial to cite the Cardinals’ record when Pujols has a hit or has an RBI. But these splits show that the Cardinals were overly reliant on Pujols. There’s no chicken-egg concern in this no-brainer. Pujols’ hitting comes first, Cardinals’ wins follow. And it’s an even bigger difference between wins and losses and than you expected.

Go ahead. Ask the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Thanks to Dave Bakenhaster Punt.

Repoz Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:40 PM | 19 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, St Louis

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1. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:36 PM (#3350981)

Isn't there serious correlation problems going on here? Albert Pujols probably hits better against crappy pitchers, who are more likely to give up lots of runs and lose ballgames. And he probably hits worse against good pitchers, who are more likely to shut down their opponents and win ballgames.

It may well be that the Cardinals offense is heavily Pujols-dependent. But looking at his numbers in wins and losses doesn't confirm that.

2. Pl Msrkwks Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:42 PM (#3350987)

Isn't there serious correlation problems going on here? Albert Pujols probably hits better against crappy pitchers, who are more likely to give up lots of runs and lose ballgames. And he probably hits worse against good pitchers, who are more likely to shut down their opponents and win ballgames.

It may well be that the Cardinals offense is heavily Pujols-dependent. But looking at his numbers in wins and losses doesn't confirm that.

My uninformed opinion agrees with you. You'd have to some comparative work (is anyone else on the Cards showing this kind of split? What about other superstar hitters?). My guess is that you'll find that he is some huge percentage of the Cards' offense, but I seriously don't think there's some magical effect here.

3. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:45 PM (#3350991)

(is anyone else on the Cards showing this kind of split? What about other superstar hitters?)

My gut tells me that almost all everyday hitters probably hit significantly better in wins than in losses.

4. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:52 PM (#3350999)

Another thing I didn't realize was on B-Ref ... ye gods.

Joe Mauer hit 377/479/598 in wins this year, and 352/399/575 in losses. Not nearly as big a gap as Pujols.

OTOH, Mark Teixeira hit 327/427/628 in wins and 230/299/452 in losses. Good thing the Yankees had a lot more wins than losses, or he'd have had a real lousy season :)

That's for 2009 alone, while I guess the numbers shown for Pujols are 2008-09.

And now I'm tired. Somebody else do some real data-gathering.

5. Andrew Edwards Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:56 PM (#3351007)

Wait a minute, the Cards are more likely to win when their players hit well? Astonishing. Please tell me more about this correlation between "runs scored" and "wins".

6. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:57 PM (#3351010)

Scott Podsednik, 2009 -

In wins - .357/.410/.502
In losses - .250/.295/.321

7. Edmundo is Super Average Man

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:02 PM (#3351016)

I glanced at Howard, Utley and Fielder 2009s for grins and their splits are nowhere near as outrageous as Pujols. Whatever that means.

8. Eric J Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:04 PM (#3351018)

Aramis Ramirez, 2008:

Wins - .362/.453/.676
Losses - .173/.253/.266

9. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:29 PM (#3351038)

So in losses he's still better than this year's model David Ortiz. That's something, anyway.

& this year's .306/.396/.498 in losses would have made a lot of players happy.

10. Walt Davis Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:31 PM (#3351040)

Or Alfonso Soriano: 285/353/539 vs. 190/243/290

Or the Cubs as a whole: 293/377/496 vs. 212/278/308 ... 6.3 r/g in wins, 2.3 in losses.

I wish god had never created splits ... and the win/loss split is probably the stupidest of them all.

11. Walt Davis Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:33 PM (#3351042)

And is the point of protecting Pujols to bring his numbers up in losses or lower his numbers in wins? :-)

12. Tricky Dick Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:01 PM (#3351085)

Lance Berkman 2009
Wins .329, .468, .586
Losses .228, .334, .444

It is kind of a "so what?" I am guessing that the split is wider for Pujols than others because he is just that much better hitter. Pujols and Berkman have similar SLG in losses, a slugging percentage which isn't that bad, by the way. But Pujols is just destroying the opposing pitchers in wins. If this is just a reflection that Pujols is a great hitter and when he has great games, then the Cards win, I'm not sure protection is all that relevant. If Pujols had a very poor slugging percent in losses (say, below .400), maybe the protection issue would make more sense.

13. kthejoker Posted: October 13, 2009 at 03:40 PM (#3351261)

And, of course, this correlates pretty well with the "Nth time through lineup" splits of most players, with the 3rd+ time facing a starter OPS being quite a bit higher than the 1st time.

Which is a more nuanced way to look at this (and still doesn't really describe it as elegantly as runs created -> wins.)

14. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: October 13, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3351395)

The simplest solution is for the Cards to win every game.

15. Tripon Posted: October 13, 2009 at 11:18 PM (#3351477)

Or to lose every game.

16. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life. Posted: October 13, 2009 at 11:24 PM (#3351478)

If the Cardinals lost every game, how many MVP votes would Pujols get?

17. Walt Davis Posted: October 14, 2009 at 03:07 AM (#3351513)

And, if you were to give win/loss splits any credence, if the problem is a lack of protection for Pujols, wouldn't the more relevant stat be the performance of the guys hitting behind Pujols in wins vs. losses?

18. Walt Davis Posted: October 14, 2009 at 03:18 AM (#3351515)

And ...

if anything, those numbers say something positive about the Cardinals. Clearly the Cardinals did a great job of taking advantage of the times when Pujols hit. If there is any systematic difference between, say, Pujols and Berkman, I bet you'd find that Berkman had a larger number of good games that the Astros lost.

19. cabintwelve Posted: October 14, 2009 at 07:13 AM (#3351536)

My gut tells me that almost all everyday hitters probably hit significantly better in wins than in losses.

Even Nick Punto does!

I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip
in Wins 400 1452 1242 224 335 59 15 7 132 160 223 .270 .350 .358 .320
in Losses 336 1078 974 77 215 34 5 5 46 90 192 .221 .285 .281 .268
</PRE>

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2009.

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Goold: Albert Pujols & the Cardinals’ Agents of Victory

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