Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, November 29, 2008

GROTA: Wyers: 2008 Cubs Recap: Ryan Theriot

Or as Ringolsby discovered…“Cubs shortstop Ryan Theriot was the only major leaguer to have a reverse triple-double in 2008. He had double-figure totals in errors (14), grounded into double plays (19) and caught-stealings (13).”

As a hitter, Theriot was modestly below average on the whole - if you glance above, he carried a .307 batting average throughout the season, and yet only put up a .745 OPS. Yikes. Now, OPS is going to tend to underrate OBP and walks - two of Theriot’s primary skills a hitter - but Wrigley is going to inflate those numbers some as well. I think I recall saying in the last offseason that Theriot was going to have to hit .300 to be anything other than a liability with the bat; lo and behold, he hit .300 and wasn’t a liability with the bat. Theriot 1, Colin 0.

I will go ahead and momentarily address Theriot’s baserunning anyway. To sum up briefly:

  * He cost the team runs by running the basepaths recklessly.
  * Probably not a whole lot of runs.
  * It was still utterly frustrating to watch.

Repoz Posted: November 29, 2008 at 06:42 PM | 14 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsChi Cubs

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#3017467)
As a hitter, Theriot was modestly below average on the whole


Actually, Theriot was very slightly above average with the bat. When you include defense, he was less than a run below average according to Chris Dial.

Should he be moved to second base?


We have a superior 2B in DeRosa, but I don't think DeRosa can handle SS well enough to move him there. We could always trade for or sign a new SS, but I don't think it's that much of an issue at the moment.

Will he continue to play this well in the future? (Doubtful; 2008 has the makings of a career year for Theriot, and at 29 next year he's past his peak years - speedy players tend to decline faster anyway.)


It might have been a career year, but it's hard to tell as Theriot noticeably changed his plate approach. He basically stopped trying to hit for power and became a pure singles hitter. His average might very well drop to .280 next year, but even then he isn't going to be a huge liability.
   2. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:17 PM (#3017474)
Actually, Theriot was very slightly above average with the bat. When you include defense, he was less than a run below average according to Chris Dial.
If you're basing this statement off of Dial's OPD numbers, then you're talking about offense relative to position. I'm talking about offense relative to league. I handle the positional adjustment based on defense, not offense.

The notion of moving Theriot to 2B was in response to an earlier thread on GROTA having to do with moving DeRosa to RF, Theriot to 2B and acquring another shortstop (like Furcal). I don't think DeRosa is a capable shortstop at this point in his career, no.

ZiPS projects Theriot to hit .285/.353/.352 next season; Rally's defensive projection for Theriot next year is -7 at shortstop. I guess at that point you're left arguing over what a "huge liability" is.
   3. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#3017483)
If you're basing this statement off of Dial's OPD numbers, then you're talking about offense relative to position. I'm talking about offense relative to league. I handle the positional adjustment based on defense, not offense.


I always think about it relative to position so it's easier to see where you can improve the offense. When compared to league, you'd be correct.

The notion of moving Theriot to 2B was in response to an earlier thread on GROTA having to do with moving DeRosa to RF, Theriot to 2B and acquring another shortstop (like Furcal). I don't think DeRosa is a capable shortstop at this point in his career, no.


That seems like an idea designed to make room for Furcal, not maximize the team's chances. I'd rather sign a corner OF.
   4. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: November 29, 2008 at 08:10 PM (#3017495)
Adding to the cacophony, James had Theriot at a reckless +10 on the bases.
   5. Andere Richtingen Posted: November 29, 2008 at 10:12 PM (#3017523)
I think I recall saying in the last offseason that Theriot was going to have to hit .300 to be anything other than a liability with the bat; lo and behold, he hit .300 and wasn’t a liability with the bat. Theriot 1, Colin 0.

It should be Theriot 1, Colin 1. You were right.

I made the same call. Maybe the Cubs will be lucky and he'll turn out like Mark Grudzielanek, a guy who started hitting for consistently high BA late in his career.
   6. Jeff K. Posted: November 29, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#3017528)
Wait, moving Theriot to 2b? Isn't that like the WWII Soviets converting jets into even more tanks?
   7. Drexl Spivey Posted: November 30, 2008 at 12:01 AM (#3017546)
They cannot replace THE RIOT. If they do, what am I going to do with my shirt that says THE RIOT on the back?

(There is no item of sports clothing more annoying than a THE RIOT shirt. THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player).
   8. Biscuit_pants Posted: November 30, 2008 at 12:17 AM (#3017550)
THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player
I for one love rooting for the "average player". I appreciate and want superstars on my team but since that is not reality, I enjoy the Theriot type players. I have a laughable list of players that I have a "special place in my heart" for. They are not always the scrappy guy but those guys are fun to root for, hell Sosa was one of them when he was a soul glow using White Sox player.
   9. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: November 30, 2008 at 07:28 AM (#3017605)
Adding to the cacophony, James had Theriot at a reckless +10 on the bases.


I really don't know much about the James numbers - I don't subscribe. So I won't comment on them either way. BP's baserunning numbers have Theriot essentially at 0; I think they're negative but not to the point where I think it matters (something like .19 runs in the hole?). His basestealing numbers are what I was looking at when I wrote that. I probably should have been more clear.
   10. Harold Posted: November 30, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#3017621)
speedy players tend to decline faster anyway.

They do?
   11. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: November 30, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#3017644)
Skills based on speed, like batting average on balls in play and triples per extra base hits, tend to decline first.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 30, 2008 at 04:41 PM (#3017647)
Does that mean that speedy players decline faster? That's a different claim.

Speed tends to be a pretty good proxy for athleticism, and athletic players tend to age better, as I recall.
   13. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 30, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#3017652)
Skills based on speed, like batting average on balls in play and triples per extra base hits, tend to decline first.


While true, players with good speed tend to age better than players with poor speed. Players who have speed as their only real asset will age poorly, but it's not the same thing. Juan Pierre, for example, has 3 things going for him: the ability to steal bases, the ability to beat out infield groundballs, and the speed to play CF. If he loses a bit of speed, all 3 of those skills are affected, and Pierre becomes a liability (as we saw in 2006).

A player like Derrek Lee is less affected by a loss of speed as it comes with improved power (I realize Lee lost a ton of power, but that was a result of a wrist injury, not normal aging). He also draws walks, a skill likely to get better as pitchers avoid him.

Ryan Howard, by comparison, may end up only able to hit singles and home runs, and may not be in the league by the time he's 33. Having poor speed means that even balls to the wall may not be doubles, and his baserunning would become even worse.

Ryan Theriot is probably very similar to Juan Pierre in terms of how he ages. His superior plate discipline may help him fend off aging a bit, but he just can't hit for power. He also has just 2/3 of Pierre's infield hit rate(and lower than his career average thus far), indicating that his batting average isn't as affected by a loss of speed.

I don't think of Theriot as a long term solution at SS, but he'll serve us until Flaherty works his way up.
   14. Keith Law Posted: November 30, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#3017665)
(There is no item of sports clothing more annoying than a THE RIOT shirt. THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player).


Kind of like "Pedroia the Destroyah" shirts?
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JE (Jason Epstein)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe Book Blog: MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential
(62 - 6:27pm, Feb 09)
Last: RayDiPerna

NewsblogGrantland/Bill James: An Open Letter to the Hall of Fame About Dwight Evans
(12 - 6:27pm, Feb 09)
Last: Moe Greene

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread: February 2012
(104 - 6:24pm, Feb 09)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogL.A. Times: 11 bidders remain in running to buy Dodgers
(1 - 6:23pm, Feb 09)
Last: The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread, February 2012
(361 - 6:23pm, Feb 09)
Last: Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim

NewsblogWhatever Happened to the Spitball?
(5 - 6:21pm, Feb 09)
Last: Steve N

NewsblogSources: Cubs’ Starlin Castro Accused Of Sexual Assault
(5801 - 6:20pm, Feb 09)
Last: SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogESPN: Law: Top 100 Prospects (paywalled)
(6 - 6:20pm, Feb 09)
Last: HollywoodHartman

NewsblogRICH HARDEN TO MISS 2012 DUE TO SHOULDER SURGERY
(14 - 6:13pm, Feb 09)
Last: TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog

NewsblogNY Daily News: Brian Cashman's accused stalker says Yankees GM misled feds on steroid probe
(43 - 6:01pm, Feb 09)
Last: Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player : 1969 Discussion
(74 - 5:52pm, Feb 09)
Last: bjhanke

NewsblogWHYGAV: Burnett to Pirates a Good Idea?
(15 - 5:47pm, Feb 09)
Last: Brian

NewsblogStrange Times in Baseball: 1891-1895
(10 - 5:47pm, Feb 09)
Last: toratoratora

NewsblogJeff Sullivan: The Worst Team Ever Projected?
(15 - 5:46pm, Feb 09)
Last: AROM

NewsblogJustice: 5 things that could make the 2012 season a successful one for the Astros
(27 - 5:41pm, Feb 09)
Last: Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.4087 seconds
40 querie(s) executed