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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, November 29, 2008GROTA: Wyers: 2008 Cubs Recap: Ryan TheriotOr as Ringolsby discovered..."Cubs shortstop Ryan Theriot was the only major leaguer to have a reverse triple-double in 2008. He had double-figure totals in errors (14), grounded into double plays (19) and caught-stealings (13).”
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Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:42 PM | 14 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Chi Cubs |
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Actually, Theriot was very slightly above average with the bat. When you include defense, he was less than a run below average according to Chris Dial.
We have a superior 2B in DeRosa, but I don't think DeRosa can handle SS well enough to move him there. We could always trade for or sign a new SS, but I don't think it's that much of an issue at the moment.
It might have been a career year, but it's hard to tell as Theriot noticeably changed his plate approach. He basically stopped trying to hit for power and became a pure singles hitter. His average might very well drop to .280 next year, but even then he isn't going to be a huge liability.
The notion of moving Theriot to 2B was in response to an earlier thread on GROTA having to do with moving DeRosa to RF, Theriot to 2B and acquring another shortstop (like Furcal). I don't think DeRosa is a capable shortstop at this point in his career, no.
ZiPS projects Theriot to hit .285/.353/.352 next season; Rally's defensive projection for Theriot next year is -7 at shortstop. I guess at that point you're left arguing over what a "huge liability" is.
I always think about it relative to position so it's easier to see where you can improve the offense. When compared to league, you'd be correct.
That seems like an idea designed to make room for Furcal, not maximize the team's chances. I'd rather sign a corner OF.
It should be Theriot 1, Colin 1. You were right.
I made the same call. Maybe the Cubs will be lucky and he'll turn out like Mark Grudzielanek, a guy who started hitting for consistently high BA late in his career.
(There is no item of sports clothing more annoying than a THE RIOT shirt. THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player).
I really don't know much about the James numbers - I don't subscribe. So I won't comment on them either way. BP's baserunning numbers have Theriot essentially at 0; I think they're negative but not to the point where I think it matters (something like .19 runs in the hole?). His basestealing numbers are what I was looking at when I wrote that. I probably should have been more clear.
They do?
Speed tends to be a pretty good proxy for athleticism, and athletic players tend to age better, as I recall.
While true, players with good speed tend to age better than players with poor speed. Players who have speed as their only real asset will age poorly, but it's not the same thing. Juan Pierre, for example, has 3 things going for him: the ability to steal bases, the ability to beat out infield groundballs, and the speed to play CF. If he loses a bit of speed, all 3 of those skills are affected, and Pierre becomes a liability (as we saw in 2006).
A player like Derrek Lee is less affected by a loss of speed as it comes with improved power (I realize Lee lost a ton of power, but that was a result of a wrist injury, not normal aging). He also draws walks, a skill likely to get better as pitchers avoid him.
Ryan Howard, by comparison, may end up only able to hit singles and home runs, and may not be in the league by the time he's 33. Having poor speed means that even balls to the wall may not be doubles, and his baserunning would become even worse.
Ryan Theriot is probably very similar to Juan Pierre in terms of how he ages. His superior plate discipline may help him fend off aging a bit, but he just can't hit for power. He also has just 2/3 of Pierre's infield hit rate(and lower than his career average thus far), indicating that his batting average isn't as affected by a loss of speed.
I don't think of Theriot as a long term solution at SS, but he'll serve us until Flaherty works his way up.
Kind of like "Pedroia the Destroyah" shirts?
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