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Saturday, November 29, 2008

GROTA: Wyers: 2008 Cubs Recap: Ryan Theriot

Or as Ringolsby discovered..."Cubs shortstop Ryan Theriot was the only major leaguer to have a reverse triple-double in 2008. He had double-figure totals in errors (14), grounded into double plays (19) and caught-stealings (13).”

As a hitter, Theriot was modestly below average on the whole - if you glance above, he carried a .307 batting average throughout the season, and yet only put up a .745 OPS. Yikes. Now, OPS is going to tend to underrate OBP and walks - two of Theriot’s primary skills a hitter - but Wrigley is going to inflate those numbers some as well. I think I recall saying in the last offseason that Theriot was going to have to hit .300 to be anything other than a liability with the bat; lo and behold, he hit .300 and wasn’t a liability with the bat. Theriot 1, Colin 0.

I will go ahead and momentarily address Theriot’s baserunning anyway. To sum up briefly:

* He cost the team runs by running the basepaths recklessly.
* Probably not a whole lot of runs.
* It was still utterly frustrating to watch.

Repoz Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:42 PM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsChi Cubs

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   1. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#3017467)
As a hitter, Theriot was modestly below average on the whole


Actually, Theriot was very slightly above average with the bat. When you include defense, he was less than a run below average according to Chris Dial.

Should he be moved to second base?


We have a superior 2B in DeRosa, but I don't think DeRosa can handle SS well enough to move him there. We could always trade for or sign a new SS, but I don't think it's that much of an issue at the moment.

Will he continue to play this well in the future? (Doubtful; 2008 has the makings of a career year for Theriot, and at 29 next year he's past his peak years - speedy players tend to decline faster anyway.)


It might have been a career year, but it's hard to tell as Theriot noticeably changed his plate approach. He basically stopped trying to hit for power and became a pure singles hitter. His average might very well drop to .280 next year, but even then he isn't going to be a huge liability.
   2. CW uses it as a stick to beat someone with  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:17 PM (#3017474)
Actually, Theriot was very slightly above average with the bat. When you include defense, he was less than a run below average according to Chris Dial.
If you're basing this statement off of Dial's OPD numbers, then you're talking about offense relative to position. I'm talking about offense relative to league. I handle the positional adjustment based on defense, not offense.

The notion of moving Theriot to 2B was in response to an earlier thread on GROTA having to do with moving DeRosa to RF, Theriot to 2B and acquring another shortstop (like Furcal). I don't think DeRosa is a capable shortstop at this point in his career, no.

ZiPS projects Theriot to hit .285/.353/.352 next season; Rally's defensive projection for Theriot next year is -7 at shortstop. I guess at that point you're left arguing over what a "huge liability" is.
   3. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#3017483)
If you're basing this statement off of Dial's OPD numbers, then you're talking about offense relative to position. I'm talking about offense relative to league. I handle the positional adjustment based on defense, not offense.


I always think about it relative to position so it's easier to see where you can improve the offense. When compared to league, you'd be correct.

The notion of moving Theriot to 2B was in response to an earlier thread on GROTA having to do with moving DeRosa to RF, Theriot to 2B and acquring another shortstop (like Furcal). I don't think DeRosa is a capable shortstop at this point in his career, no.


That seems like an idea designed to make room for Furcal, not maximize the team's chances. I'd rather sign a corner OF.
   4. Don Guillote (The Cheat)  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 03:10 PM (#3017495)
Adding to the cacophony, James had Theriot at a reckless +10 on the bases.
   5. Andere Richtingen  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 05:12 PM (#3017523)
I think I recall saying in the last offseason that Theriot was going to have to hit .300 to be anything other than a liability with the bat; lo and behold, he hit .300 and wasn’t a liability with the bat. Theriot 1, Colin 0.

It should be Theriot 1, Colin 1. You were right.

I made the same call. Maybe the Cubs will be lucky and he'll turn out like Mark Grudzielanek, a guy who started hitting for consistently high BA late in his career.
   6. Jeff K.  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#3017528)
Wait, moving Theriot to 2b? Isn't that like the WWII Soviets converting jets into even more tanks?
   7. Drexl Spivey  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#3017546)
They cannot replace THE RIOT. If they do, what am I going to do with my shirt that says THE RIOT on the back?

(There is no item of sports clothing more annoying than a THE RIOT shirt. THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player).
   8. Biscuit_pants  Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:17 PM (#3017550)
THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player
I for one love rooting for the "average player". I appreciate and want superstars on my team but since that is not reality, I enjoy the Theriot type players. I have a laughable list of players that I have a "special place in my heart" for. They are not always the scrappy guy but those guys are fun to root for, hell Sosa was one of them when he was a soul glow using White Sox player.
   9. CW uses it as a stick to beat someone with  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 02:28 AM (#3017605)
Adding to the cacophony, James had Theriot at a reckless +10 on the bases.


I really don't know much about the James numbers - I don't subscribe. So I won't comment on them either way. BP's baserunning numbers have Theriot essentially at 0; I think they're negative but not to the point where I think it matters (something like .19 runs in the hole?). His basestealing numbers are what I was looking at when I wrote that. I probably should have been more clear.
   10. Harold  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 06:37 AM (#3017621)
speedy players tend to decline faster anyway.

They do?
   11. CW uses it as a stick to beat someone with  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 11:27 AM (#3017644)
Skills based on speed, like batting average on balls in play and triples per extra base hits, tend to decline first.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 11:41 AM (#3017647)
Does that mean that speedy players decline faster? That's a different claim.

Speed tends to be a pretty good proxy for athleticism, and athletic players tend to age better, as I recall.
   13. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#3017652)
Skills based on speed, like batting average on balls in play and triples per extra base hits, tend to decline first.


While true, players with good speed tend to age better than players with poor speed. Players who have speed as their only real asset will age poorly, but it's not the same thing. Juan Pierre, for example, has 3 things going for him: the ability to steal bases, the ability to beat out infield groundballs, and the speed to play CF. If he loses a bit of speed, all 3 of those skills are affected, and Pierre becomes a liability (as we saw in 2006).

A player like Derrek Lee is less affected by a loss of speed as it comes with improved power (I realize Lee lost a ton of power, but that was a result of a wrist injury, not normal aging). He also draws walks, a skill likely to get better as pitchers avoid him.

Ryan Howard, by comparison, may end up only able to hit singles and home runs, and may not be in the league by the time he's 33. Having poor speed means that even balls to the wall may not be doubles, and his baserunning would become even worse.

Ryan Theriot is probably very similar to Juan Pierre in terms of how he ages. His superior plate discipline may help him fend off aging a bit, but he just can't hit for power. He also has just 2/3 of Pierre's infield hit rate(and lower than his career average thus far), indicating that his batting average isn't as affected by a loss of speed.

I don't think of Theriot as a long term solution at SS, but he'll serve us until Flaherty works his way up.
   14. Keith Law  Posted: November 30, 2008 at 01:28 PM (#3017665)
(There is no item of sports clothing more annoying than a THE RIOT shirt. THE RIOT shirts are worn exclusively by pretentious white guys who think that the shirt is clever and love the idea of supporting a scrappy white guy even if he's an average player).


Kind of like "Pedroia the Destroyah" shirts?
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