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Monday, November 24, 2008

Guillen sheds no tears for Swisher

Don’t cry for me Venezuela
Have I said too much?

What about the disappointment of Swisher, who hit .191 after the All-Star Game?

It was hard because when we brought him here, a lot of people were excited [that] he would have a great career with the White Sox, but we got to the point that we went through the roster ... and we had a right fielder, left fielder, first baseman and DH. It was hard for us to find a place for him.

Was Swisher a bad influence in the clubhouse late in the year?

You’ve got to ask the players about that. To be honest with you, I was not happy with the way he was reacting at the end of the season. He wasn’t helping me either.

Repoz Posted: November 24, 2008 at 12:52 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralChi White Sox

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   1. alskor  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 01:01 AM (#3014695)
Wow. The more I hear about him, the more this guy sounds like the perfect fit in that Yankee clubhouse.
   2. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 01:16 AM (#3014697)
Guillen seems to turn on everyone that leaves.

So do they leave because he wants them gone and Williams makes it happen, or is Ozzie just an ###?
   3. alskor  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 01:26 AM (#3014699)
So do they leave because he wants them gone and Williams makes it happen, or is Ozzie just an ###?


Well, Swisher was dropped in the lineup and benched well before he was traded, obviously. There were apparently problems even before they dropped Swisher - he had problems with the coaches supposedly - so its hard to say... sort of a chicken and the egg thing. Still, the two never seemed to get a long by some accounts.
   4. Al Kaline Trio  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 02:30 AM (#3014704)
I thought that interview was the most politically correct thing I've ever heard from Guillen. I like Swisher because he obviously cares about playing. I think it's understandable he doesn't want to be a bench player, I'd be mad if I got demoted at work. I don't think this is a big deal and he'll be loved / hated in New York based on if he hits again or not.
   5. Jonk  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#3014706)
I think it's understandable he doesn't want to be a bench player

...especially if Dewayne Wise is one replacing you.
   6. Stealfirstbase (Liberalthinkfactory.org member)  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 07:56 AM (#3014721)
You know, the more I think about that Swisher trade, the more it reminds me of the Carlos Lee trade of 2004. Both were sold to the fans as salary dumps of players the team could no longer stand. And in both cases the White Sox sold their players for pennies on the dollar. In case nobody can remember Lee's trade, he was traded to the Brewers for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and a minor league first basemen who never made it to the majors. He had 2 years and $16 million remaining on his contract.

It seems that when Guillen and Williams want you gone, the organization takes the very first lowball offer from any team and doesn't look back.
   7. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:29 AM (#3014751)
The Lee trade was not made in a vacuum; it freed up $$ to sign Iguchi.
   8. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:36 AM (#3014754)
And in both cases the White Sox sold their players for pennies on the dollar. In case nobody can remember Lee's trade, he was traded to the Brewers for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and a minor league first basemen who never made it to the majors. He had 2 years and $16 million remaining on his contract.


But you fail to mention the most important aspect of the Lee trade: the cost savings it brought allowed the White Sox to pick up a lot of the important pieces of the '05 World Championship team. If you think of the deal as Lee for Pods + Vizcaino + 6 million (the difference in salaries between Lee and Pods + Vizcaino), it looks a lot better, especially when you consider that the 6 million was used to get Pierzynski ($2.25M) and Iguchi ($2.3M), or one of Pierzynski/Iguchi and El Duque ($3.5M).

I thnk the Swisher trade was also made because Kenny believes that the money Swisher would be making next year can be spent to upgrade the team in other places. Swisher makes $5.3M next year; I assume Betemit will make around $1.5M. I also think Kenny views Betemit as a replacement to Uribe (who made $4.5M last year, and will probably make $2-3M this coming year, maybe even more). The White Sox have certainly improved their depth -- they have Getz and Nix at 2B, Alexei at SS, Fields at 3B, and Betemit to handle any and all backup infield positions. (If he isn't the starter -- I wouldn't be surprised to see Betemit as Chicago's starting 3B in 2009.)

One final point: If Kenny has made this type of trade before, and if Swisher was rumored to be on the block (he was, for quite some time), then isn't this deal by definition for fair market value? Other teams could have jumped in to beat New York's offer. I think they didn't because of real concern that Swisher may not bounce back.
   9. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:40 AM (#3014756)
Curse you, Dr. Memory, for beating me to the punch!
   10. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:44 AM (#3014760)
The Lee trade was not made in a vacuum; it freed up $$ to sign Iguchi.

Among others.

Trading Swisher didn't really save the team any money in 2009 - Swisher won't start making real money until 2010. If the goal was to clear payroll for the 2009 team, Williams would have been much better off dealing Dye and/or Vazquez.

Clearly, Williams wanted to dump Swisher, and he took the first offer that came down the pike. It does raise some interesting questions about what the team plans to do in the long term about their outfield, but I don't think Ken Williams spends a whole lot of time thinking more than a season ahead.
   11. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:45 AM (#3014761)
One final point: If Kenny has made this type of trade before, and if Swisher was rumored to be on the block (he was, for quite some time), then isn't this deal by definition for fair market value? Other teams could have jumped in to beat New York's offer. I think they didn't because of real concern that Swisher may not bounce back.

Or, as I think, Ken Williams really likes Marquez, and, like he's done multiple times in the past, he's overpaying for what he sees as a diamond in the rough.
   12. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:02 AM (#3014774)
Or, as I think, Ken Williams really likes Marquez, and, like he's done multiple times in the past, he's overpaying for what he sees as a diamond in the rough.


I think he likes Betemit a lot too, but you are right -- I've seen Marquez mentioned a number of times as the centerpiece of the deal. I don't get it, but I didn't "get" Gavin Floyd either. Marquez is 23, and strikes out nobody (33 in 80 innings at AAA last year). I guess he's a groundball pitcher -- maybe Kenny thinks he's getting Jon Garland v2.0?
   13. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:05 AM (#3014776)
I don't think Ken Williams spends a whole lot of time thinking more than a season ahead.


You mean the GM who just signed a 19-year-old from Cuba? That guy doesn't think more than a season ahead? The guy who has acquired young players such as Danks, Floyd, Quentin, and Alexei in the past couple of years?
   14. Ryan Jones  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:09 AM (#3014779)
You mean the GM who just signed a 19-year-old from Cuba? That guy doesn't think more than a season ahead? The guy who has acquired young players such as Danks, Floyd, Quentin, and Alexei in the past couple of years?


All of whom were ready to contribute within about a year. The guy has an incredible ability to pick ML ready talent away from other teams.

As a result, I'd expect that the 19-year-old from Cuba will be in the majors by the All Star break.
   15. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:14 AM (#3014782)
if Swisher was rumored to be on the block (he was, for quite some time), then isn't this deal by definition for fair market value? Other teams could have jumped in to beat New York's offer.

Its not always true that the selling team shopped around a whole bunch. Was the proper market value for the Mets trading Kazmir to be a broken down old pitcher?

This may have been the best deal KW could find, or maybe just the first acceptable one.
   16. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:22 AM (#3014790)
Its not always true that the selling team shopped around a whole bunch. Was the proper market value for the Mets trading Kazmir to be a broken down old pitcher?


I have no idea whether the Mets shopped Kazmir around a bunch, or even whether the White Sox shopped Swisher around. I think other teams knew that Swisher was available; as I said, he was rumored to be a trade candidate for at least a couple of weeks before he was traded. If I knew that Swisher was a trade candidate, it would be hard for a major league GM to not know that. Was that the case with Kazmir?

EDIT: This is where being an outsider is a problem when it comes to analysis. In order to really evaluate, we would need to know:

1. That Williams did indeed make it known to other GMs that Swisher was available; and

2. What other trade proposals were presented.

Obviously we don't know either of these things. I assume #1, based on available information, but who knows about #2?
   17. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:17 AM (#3014841)
Curse you, Dr. Memory, for beating me to the punch!

You 'splained it better. I was just shorthanding it, as JRE noted.
   18. JPWF13  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:29 AM (#3014853)
I thought that interview was the most politically correct thing I've ever heard from Guillen.


Ditto

I have no idea whether the Mets shopped Kazmir around a bunch, or even whether the White Sox shopped Swisher around. I think other teams knew that Swisher was available; as I said, he was rumored to be a trade candidate for at least a couple of weeks before he was traded. If I knew that Swisher was a trade candidate, it would be hard for a major league GM to not know that. Was that the case with Kazmir?


Not being an insider, I have no idea if the fact that the MSM is reporting that a player is available counts- WRT Kazmir, I distinctly recall one column where the writers' sources with 2 different teams admitted hearing of a Kazmir/Zambrano rumor beforehand- but they simply discounted it as being too outlandish- if the Mets were really shopping Kazmir so cheaply they would have heard about from other sources.... Oops.

Several years ago I also read a thorough dissection of a botched trade- the GM and lead scout wanted a certain deal- and were afraid that entertaining other offers would simply enable ownership to dither and stall - endangering the trade - so they simply misled the owner about putting out feelers and get no interest.

Were there other teams who would have offered more for Swisher? I don't know. Were their other teams that SHOULD have offered more for Swish than the Yankees did? (As a Met fan I can emphatically say yes).

Teams can make the mistake of believing that other teams evaluate players the way they do. If they think a player is worth $XX, and they tell 1 or 2 other teams they can have him for $XXX, and those teams say no- confirmation bias kicks in- they are not going to waste time shopping a player they believe to be worth $XX for $XXX. OTOH, if they think a player is worth $XXX and the first offers they get are $XX- they will either shop the player to more teams- OR pull him off the market.
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