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http://twitter.com/Dejan_Kovacevic/status/2407599997
???? What does that have to do with 2 OFs?
Didn't see him mentioned. What's the story with him? Pretty good peripherals, but a .451 BABIP!!! Too many hanging curves/sliders?
Or is the plan to trade Nick Johnson soon, put Dunn and 1st and play Willingham, Morgan, and Dukes left to right?
Sean Burnett walks a shitload of batters.
- acquiring Lastings Milledge, beloved by BTF because he is underrated by media and fans.
- trading Nyjer Morgan, hated by BTF because he is overrated by media and fans.
- trading with the Nationals, possibly the only team who gets less benefit of the doubt (deservedly so).
- challenge trades! Everyone likes them. That shows some moxie.
Clearly makes sense for PIT. They need some players who can at least potentially be stars, and they don't need Milledge to play CF, which it doesn't seem like he can do. WAS does need a legit defensive CF in order to make their OF make sense, so I get that. But, of course, they could use starpower themselves. They must really hate Milledge on an attitude/mental approach level. I certainly can't say at this point that they're incorrect to feel that way. He will have to prove them wrong, if it's gonna happen.
It does doesn't it......
Harris has been their best all-around OF for the past 2 months,
I don't see why the nat's need a light hitting OF who is already 29 and will never evolve into a slugger unlees they feel Morgan can play center and get to enough balls that Dunn and Willingham would boot.
Our luck is they'll play Morgan and Kearns and Dukes and never score many runs.
I really like this trade for Pittsburgh. Milledge has the tools to be a good everyday outfielder, and Hanrahan has the stuff to be a good closer. They may not reach their potential, but Morgan and Burnett have way, way less upside.
But we've been burned by Milledge and nothing will turn off know-it-alls like us more than being proven wrong. Damn you Lastings! Damn you straight to hell!
That's my view. You can envision a scenario where Milledge and Hannrahan are well above average players on a contending Pirate team. The odds may not be high, who knows, but the possibility is real.
My peoples in Syracuse have told me he looks TERRIBLE.
My peoples in Syracuse have told me he looks TERRIBLE.
Well, given his stats, I don't need to see him to believe that. You can't really look good posting a 594 OPS.
Still, he just turned 24, and hit well at AA/AAA at ages 20-21. He's clearly got talent, and an 89 career OPS+ is not so horrible to think he is completely over matched by big league pitching.
You'd think he has at least a 50% chance of having a decent big league career, unless he's totally unreachable/unteachable.
The Nats do desperately need a CF who can actually play CF and not hit like Justin Maxwell. Harris is basically a better hitting version of Nyjer so I probably would have stuck with him longer, but I've not watched either enough to say who is the better fielder.
This is an outright steal for Pittsburgh. In the short term, Washington helps itself by acquiring a legitimate defensive CF who can lead off for the next couple of years, and a second lefty for the pen. Why either of those things is such a high priority for a last-place team that they're giving up two higher-upside guys, however, is completely beyond me.
The Nats only real asset at this point is their young starting pitching, so maybe they want someone who can actually catch a ball or two and allow them to develop.
For the types who find sweet pleasure for themselves on the Fangraphs site, it seems about a draw. I mean, Morgan's UZR is like eleventy billion per dozen games, but Willie's numbers were pretty good last year, too.
Still, it's a trade, and trades are fun.
Who's their next best position prospect after F-Mart?
Definitely Willingham.
Delgado is starting to swing the bat, so he can't be more than a couple weeks away. As a result, they probably wouldn't have much use for Johnson.
Wilmer Flores, then Jefry Marte, but the Nats can't have them.
Maybe the Nats want Dan Murphy.
The Mets could sure use both. They could ship Murphy down to AAA and have him learn to field a position. They could even extend Johnson as a Delgado replacement for next year.
You're counting on rehab timetables from the Mets medical staff? I thought there was a real chance Delgado wouldn't be back at all?
Anyhow, they have to gauge that likelihood, though they could get Johnson now, and re-flip him in a month if Delgado's ready. They need some major league hitters yesterday, not in a few weeks.
Yeah. If he starts throwing well he could net something nice in a trade next year. Definitely worth a flyer.
Yes, he was rehabbing from hand surgery in the GCL the past four days.
That is correct.Per Cot's 1.065 entering 2009
The only way it's worth picking up Johnson is if Delgado is actually done for the season, or it costs nothing at all. To me, the guy is just too fragile to trust for any length of time, and I doubt the Mets would be able to re-flip him for anything of value (assuming he's even healthy when they try to re-flip him).
#3 I would guess is Josh Thole.
Milledge has no role on the Nationals. Dukes is looking like an average glove in right field, Dunn isn't there for his fielding, and Milledge isn't really a centrefielder. In between Dukes and Dunn the Nationals need a good glove, which at will help out the confidence of the young pitching staff.
The Nationals have invested their future in the pitching. If Morgan can make a dramatic improvement in the outfield defence for this season and next, that will probably pay off with a whole rotation of skilled, confident pitchers in 2011. Whether they'll have the position players to back them up in two years' time is another matter, but that's not the Nationals' priority at this moment.
Maybe all crappy teams should stop making moves unless or until statheads announce that they are entering the "success" part of the success cycle.
Morgan supposedly is a really good defensive OF. I think that has value on a team trying to build a pitching staff. Leading him off would be dumb. Also, given the state of the NL, the distance to WC contention is short. Ask the Rockies and the Giants.
Milledge is 24.
Morgan is 29
why wouldn't you make that deal if you are the Pirates?
I think it was a reasonable move for the Pirates also. I can see why both teams triggered on it.
Maybe not, but the Pirates are about the best fit to give it a try.
What's Morgan's upside? Juan Pierre? What's the worse case scenario? Joey Gathright?
Chico Harlan's most recent blog post mentions that Morgan is "well-suited to bat leadoff," which presumably means that the Nats find him well-suited for that role. So it looks like they'll bat him lead-off.
At the rate Pittsburgh is trading outfielders? Of course, they could just as easily turn around and flip Milledge. Although there's a limited market for him right now; his value has never been lower that I can recall.
I'd like this trade a lot better if the Pirates knew what to do with a guy like Milledge, who clearly has his own ideas on how to approach the game. Their recent issues with Snell don't give me a lot of confidence in that regard.
-- MWE
Why do you hate ZIPS?
Why would they do that when they have Cristian Guzman with his X-ray vision and Nick Johnson with his OBP-godliness? Of course, they lead off Willie Harris last night, so maybe that answers the question. But I think it is obvious that they should stick Morgan in CF to help the pitchers and hit him 8th. Do the same with Harris when Morgan needs a day off.
That's a very new thing, within like the last two games. Acta explained that he just wanted to mix things up and liked the way Harris had been getting on base recently.
I'm guessing Acta wants to play with some speed in the lead-off spot, given that Guzman has turned into a pretty good bat control guy. If Morgan can continue to reach base at a .350 clip, this isn't a terrible thing, I guess.
I tend not to like stuff managers do when they say that. I knew they had just recently tried Harris leading off, but I didn't really see having Guzman/Johnson/Zimmerman/Dunn up top as high on the list of "Things the Nats need to change and improve." But Acta watches them every day and I have only seen them two times all year, so maybe I am missing something.
What is Minaya's game here? I assume he's on a short leash.
Why didn't he outbid the Yankees for Eric Hinske, or the Cards for DeRosa?
Is he trying to avoid adding players so he can use the injury/I didn't deplete the farm excuse to try and save his job?
Uh...he did play 138 games in the majors last year.
I call "5 minutes after the trade is annouced, while being introduced to the local media."
EDIT: I'm guessing his chair will break, and he'll fall off the stage and on to something pointy.
Who's the last player that has developed in the Pittsburgh system? McLouth, I guess -- but the other nominal forces in Pittsburgh arrived pretty much intact... Freddy Sanchez spent less than a year in the system, Bay less than that.
I suppose McCutcheon has looked pretty good - but we probably can't judge with only ~100 ABs.
He doesn't like to trade prospects mid-season, and normally won't trade them for anything less than a stud like Santana.
-- MWE
Well, then he should be fired immediately. A GM on a contending team who will only trade prospects in the off season for top-20 players is basically voluntarily tying one hand behind his back.
How many playoff teams don't need to add something during the course of the season? How are you going to get them without trading prospects?
Look at his BBREF page, that's it- he's already there.
He has traded prospects in mid season, and the results have been catastrophically awful:
Jason Bay, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips...
Plus the Mets in general may be a little gun shy about trading prospects in mid season... Jason Bay... Scott Kazmir...
*in the sense that they are so young, even if their performance sucks, their trade value will still increase for a few years.
I mean, this is what the Mets' lineup looks like these days:
Pos OPS+ Defense
C 104 Average
1B 80 Average
2B 88 Poor
3B 143 Fair
SS 81 Poor
LF 143 Poor
CF 37 Fair
RF 91 Average
At the time they were traded, only Phillips was highly rated.
-- MWE
I don't have my 2002 BA Prospect book to hand right now, but if memory serves me right Sizemore was rated high in the Expos' system (#4?), and possibly made some of the top 50s at the front of the book. I'm not so sure the same could be said about Lee. (Or maybe it's the other way round.) I'll check when I get home if nobody beats me to it.
Bay, on the other hand, didn't even make the Expos' top 30. He'd just put up an .896 OPS in a 2001 season split between the Midwest and Florida leagues at age 22, a little old for his level. Most of that was in the Midwest League. He had .574 OPS in 145 PAs for Jupiter. Very much the sleeper pick, but probably worth more than Lou Collier!
EDIT: I see Sizemore was only putting up a .699 OPS for Brevard County, so Mike is probably right in saying 'at the time of the trade', some months after the BA book.
Edit: Looked it up. Wow. Well played.
and???????????
And yet trading them mid season for peanuts turned out to be catastrophic- imho that would make a GM doubly gun shy about doing that in the future.
Nyjer Morgan currently leads the majors in CS, while being ninth in steals.
How many playoff teams don't need to add something during the course of the season? How are you going to get them without trading prospects?
Depends on which types of prospects. The Martinezes, Flores, Mejia caliber types I would agree that you hold on to. The Evanses and Mulveys, I don't mind parting with. But of course, the principle of reversibility works as well in that teams aren't interested in the "disposable" prospects.
For example, would you mind if Cashman moved Jackson or Montero?
This is also probably a good thing for Lastings Milledge, since it seems likely the Pirates are just going to stick him in left field and leave him alone on a bad team nobody watches, which I think is exactly what he needs.
Hanrahan's the kind of guy who has a fair chance at having a well-timed good two months and being flipped for a prospect of some substance.
FTH?
Does this mean that the Pirates might have made a good move and aren't so much shite afterall...? Or is Justin Zeth merely getting soft in his virtual age...?
Of course, after watching Gorkys for a couple weeks I'm starting to reconsider...
Hey, I just call 'em like I see 'em. Suffice to say the Pirates' escapades at the top of the draft are not encouraging me to think they've changed much, at least not in that regard. Pedro Alvarez is 23 and completely overmatched in AA ball. He isn't going to be any kind of star.
But at least Huntingdon is making some decent trades this year.
For example, would you mind if Cashman moved Jackson or Montero?
I agree, don't trade F-Mart. That's why I asked who was the next best position prospect in the context of getting Willingham and Johnson.
I'm fine with Cashman trading fungible C+/B- prospects; that's what they're there for.
I'm pretty sure the Mets could have beaten the Yankee offer for Hinske, or the StL offer for DeRosa w/o trading their top 3 guys. The Pirates got two non-prospects for Hinske. Cle got two relief arms. These are not top-shelf prospects.
The Bucs Dugout guys liked it too - I participated in the discussion and I was pretty much the only one who disliked it for the reasons I gave (there were a few OH NO THROW IN THE TOWEL! guys).
Pedro Alvarez is in his first year of pro ball and has a grand total of 25 ABs at AA. Perhaps he will never be any kind of star. But coming to this conclussion at this point is pretty ridiculous.
Sizemore was ranked #3, Lee #11.
However, Sizemore didn't make anyone's Top 50.
Some who did:
Joe Borchard
Marlon Byrd
Angel Berroa
I'm pretty sure it was a serious pick, since that book was probably written slightly before it was revealed that Berroa was two years older than previously believed.
The man cannot hit a breaking ball. AA pitchers already know this. At the very least, AA is not the place for him to try to figure that out. Also, he is never going to play 3B in the majors, and Altoona has no first baseman worth playing, which makes me scratch my head. Why don't they move him off third and take some of the defensive pressure off of him so his mind is more clear to focus on trying to figure out how to hit a breaking ball, at least?
I'm not saying he can't learn how to hit them. He has serious power and good strike zone judgment, which is a nice base to build from. But right now I imagine he's getting his home runs off fastballs that pitchers accidentally or stupidly put over the plate, or hanging breaking balls, and I don't really think he's ready for AA. Which given that he's 23, would be an indication to me he's not really an uber-prospect. I'm not a scout; just a layman's two cents.
P.S. And he's really, really bad at third. I saw Ryan Braun play third; Alvarez is worse.
EDIT: And the Prospect Handbook gives his birthday as 27 January 1980, as opposed to BB-ref's current date of 27 January 1978
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