Why just Boston? Isn't Cabrera a great addition to any team? Other than the Yankees or Cardinals I guess.

Could Cabrera play left field (I realize that he wouldn't be good)? If so, I am not sure there isn't a team that wouldn't want him.

Because the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are the only teams that actually exist.

The yanks could slot him in dh and re-sign Damon and score a million runs or they could get him and sign Holliday and score a billion runs.

Because the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are the only teams that actually exist.

Or because the Sox have been pretty clearly looking for an elite bat that they can plug into 1B, and they have a pretty good base of young, cheap talent to deal from. The Mets probably don't have the farm talent, and the Yankees really don't have the chips to land him and Halladay...

I'd rather the Sox go after Miggy than AdGon, personally.

Chill out. It was a joke.

If Cabrera costs less in talent than Gonzalez, I'd say go for it. He is younger, and a better hitter. I worry about his weight, though.

Can the Red Sox keep Cabrera out of Daisy Buchanan's?

Cabrera for Mike Rabelo.

Chill out. It was a joke.

It was funnier after I had some coffee. But I also think we're in for an offseason with a ton of these sorts of articles until the Sox actually make that move...

If Cabrera costs less in talent than Gonzalez, I'd say go for it. He is younger, and a better hitter. I worry about his weight, though.

I'm wondering if taking Mags salary to play LF might help that out a bit. Is Detroit looking for a 3Bman (did Inge's knees explode yet?), would they be interested in a Mags for Lowell component to the deal?

The yanks could slot him in dh and re-sign Damon and score a million runs or they could get him and sign Holliday and score a billion runs.

I see no reason the Yankees would spend prospects and $20M+ a year on Cabrera when they can have Holliday for just money.

Give his "training regimen" I don't really think Cabrera is any better bet to sustain his production than Holiiday.

The Red Sox should acquire Cabrera and move him back to SS.
Maybe Bowden and Lowrie for Cabrera and Verlander?

If Cabrera costs less in talent than Gonzalez, I'd say go for it. He is younger, and a better hitter. I worry about his weight, though.

I still see a lot of comments about Cabrera's poor defense and his weight, and I wonder if they are based on lingering observations from previous years.

This year I had the pleasure of watching Cabrera play every day for the first time in his career (I had been living overseas since 2003), and my impressions are that his defense at first base is definitely not bad, and is probably even good. He's worked really hard over there. Also, he is a lot taller and leaner than I expected. Much closer to Jermaine Dye, physique-wise, than Prince Fielder.

I don't know what he looked like or how he played from 2003-2008, but the fat, defensively indifferent player I've read about for the past few years doesn't seem to exist anymore. The alcohol problems are worrisome, but the guy strikes me as (i) a hard worker, (ii) someone who cares about the game and wants to improve, and — of course — (iii) one of the best young hitters in the game.

If there are five players in baseball worth $20+ million a year, he's one of them, and I would hate to see the Tigers trade him because it seems unlikely that they could get equivalent value in return. My advice to Dombrowski and Ilitch would be to hold on through 2010 — they still should be reasonably competitive in the AL Central — and then exhale when the bad contracts come off the books in 2011 (Ordonez, Bonderman, Willis, Robertson). 2010 will be painful financially, but hopefully Ilitch has a cushion somewhere and can muddle through.

It would be a shame to lose players like Granderson, Jackson and especially Cabrera — these are the types of players teams are usually trying to add. And they're not even that expensive, by MLB standards. Heck, Granderson still has four years left on his contract at approximately $9 million a year. That's downright reasonable.

My advice to Dombrowski and Ilitch would be to hold on through 2010 — they still should be reasonably competitive in the AL Central — and then exhale when the bad contracts come off the books in 2011 (Ordonez, Bonderman, Willis, Robertson).

We have a winner. And frankly, I think this is exactly what will happen. The Tigers are not having a fire sale; they're trying to improve their team. The most likely outcome is that nobody will offer enough (for any of the players we keep hearing about) to make Dombrowski want to pull the trigger.

I still see a lot of comments about Cabrera's poor defense and his weight, and I wonder if they are based on lingering observations from previous years.

Cabrera suffers from what I think of as the Andruw Jones mis-perception problem. People "remember" both of those guys from when they broke in as 18 year olds. They have these thin, extremely athletic boys in mind when they think of how those two players are "supposed to look." Anything other than those images, or some Gabe Kapler-esque rock-cut physique will get them called "lazy and fat." Such is life, I suppose.

Also, Atlanta would love to have Miggy at 1B.

Cabrera suffers from what I think of as the Andruw Jones mis-perception problem. People "remember" both of those guys from when they broke in as 18 year olds. They have these thin, extremely athletic boys in mind when they think of how those two players are "supposed to look." Anything other than those images, or some Gabe Kapler-esque rock-cut physique will get them called "lazy and fat." Such is life, I suppose.

Well, Cabrera did get out of shape; he may have improved.

He also seems to have a major drinking problem, which is not likely to indicate a great committment to a training regimen.

I'll drink to that.

And he's a MVP candidate!

He also seems to have a major drinking problem, which is not likely to indicate a great committment to a training regimen.

The harder you train, the more you get to drink.

Who's going to have a longer and better MLB career - Cabrera or Prince Fielder?

He also seems to have a major drinking problem, which is not likely to indicate a great committment to a training regimen.

The Miguel Cabrera workout - pick up two twelve-ounce weights, lift and tilt, repeat until satisfied.

for a guy who might drink too much and/or might have fitness issues, dude shows up to work.

for a guy who might drink too much and/or might have fitness issues, dude shows up to work.

Yes, but he seems to have peaked at age 23. He hasn't sustained the 150 OPS+ everyone expected, let alone generated the normal mid-20's improvement. He may be a classic "functioning alcoholic". Or not.

Is Cabrera even that valuable? In the past two years, his offense seems to have regressed from elite to merely very good. He is limited to first base defensively. And he has a big contract. He's still very young, so maybe we haven't seen all that there is, but whatever his training methods may or may not be, I'm not sure that the player we currently see on the field is worth $20 mil/year.

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Count me in the "run out there stinkin drunk if he still hits like that" school.

In the past two years, his offense seems to have regressed from elite to merely very good.

Going from a 150 OPS+ to a 142 OPS+ is going from elite to very good? He slipped from 5th to 7th in the league. I'd say he's still elite. He was probably more elite as a crappy 3B, but he's still up there.

Is Cabrera even that valuable? In the past two years, his offense seems to have regressed from elite to merely very good. He is limited to first base defensively. And he has a big contract. He's still very young, so maybe we haven't seen all that there is, but whatever his training methods may or may not be, I'm not sure that the player we currently see on the field is worth $20 mil/year.

Interesting question.

For last season, with his 142 OPS+ (right around his career average) Fangraphs has him worth $24M, with a small positive on defense (UZR). In 2008 with a 129 OPS+ and poor defense, he was only worth $13M.

He's due to make $20-22M over the next 6 years.

He's probably worth the contract, but just worth it. There's no surplus value there, and a lot of risk if the drinking is a real issue.

Going from a 150 OPS+ to a 142 OPS+ is going from elite to very good?

Ignoring the 129 OPS+ in 2008?

Ignoring the 129 OPS+ in 2008?

I'm just saying the trendline isn't very strong. If he put up a 129 OPS+ 2 years in a row, maybe you could say he was now merely "very good." That he went back up to a 142 indicates to me that he's still elite. Granted, 'elite' is a pretty vague and maybe useless term, but I disagree that Cabrera's already entered some big decline. If he kept hitting around 142 for the next few years, I'd still consider him 'elite.' YMMV.

So, more likely to be worth the rest of their contract: Miguel Cabrera (entering age 27 season, career 140 OPS+, probable average defender, probable alcoholic) @ $126 million across six years or Mark Teixeira (entering age 30 season, career 136 OPS+, probably good-to-excellent defense) @ $155 million across seven years?

Jeeze, that's not even close, is it? I thought Tex would be closer. Wow.

Over 2006 - 2007, Cabrera's OPS+ was 155. Over 2008 - 2009, Cabrera's OPS+ was 136. That seems like a fairly significant decline. Of course, we can slice the data in lots of different ways to prove our point. But it seems relevant to me that in the last two years at 25 and 26, Cabrera had his worst two seasons in the past five years.

seems close to me

When asked who he would take to start a team, Theo Epstein said that he would take King Felix if it was a pitcher or Miguel Cabrera if it was a hitter.
That's probably why Dombrowski mentioned Boston in the quote above

seems close to me

Really? Cabrera is cheaper, younger and a better hitter over the course of his career. Unless you really hate Cabrera's D or think the booze is going to do him in (which is fair, I suppose) I can't see how you'd think Teixeira is more likely to be worth his deal.

And mind you, I really like Tex, I don't think that's a bad signing by any means.

Ignoring the 129 OPS+ in 2008

Check the splits for that year. Cabrera had a weird, fluky bad beginning to the year and finished it out as his typical self; the overall numbers suffered from the giant dump he took early on. C'est la vie.

Considering the league change, if you compare the last 3/4s of Cabrera's time in Detroit to the first 1/4, I'm not really concerned about some horrific downward trend. The guy just laid an egg at the beginning of his first season in the AL when feeling the pressure of a big new contract.

I can't see how you'd think Teixeira is more likely to be worth his deal.

not sure I do, but it might be close. The difference between the contracts is roughly 1 year at $31 million. But Teixeira might be a better overall player and might be more reliable going forward. And in 7 years, it might be easier to be "worth" a $30 million salary than it is now.

A comment from the Red Sox Prospects message board

I can't say where I got this from, but let's just say I'm a member of the media and I've heard some things about Miguel Cabrera from first-hand sources that make Manny Ramirez seem like Florence Nightengale.

I have serious doubts that the Red Sox would go there again, after what they went through with Manny.

I have serious doubts that the Red Sox would go there again, after what they went through with Manny.

Hard to say. Manny clearly wasn't everyone's favorite guy in the Boston clubhouse, but you don't really hear much about his behavior in LA. Sometimes a change of scenery can make a big difference.

What, we can't even get our own BS sources anymore? Now we have to steal them from other message boards?

Yeah, it was so terrible winning those two WS with Manny

Cabrera's remaining contract is 6/$166 - $21mil annual value.
Depending on what assumptions you make about Miguel Cabrera's value - you can call him a 5 WAR player or a 6 WAR player equally reasonably, and depending on what you expect to happen with baseball revenues - they won't keep growing at 10% per year, but they might completely stagnate, or they might grow slowly, Cabrera is worth from about 3 WAR to about 10 WAR above what he is going to be paid. That is surprisingly little. It means that Clay Buchholz by himself is a bit more valuable than Miggy. Or if Boston is willing to trade both Kelly & Westmoreland, that will also be a trade that is slightly advantageous to Detroit. This ignores the risk that Cabrera's production will catastrophicly collapse due to lack of work ethic or alcoholism, which is probably small but bigger than for other players of his caliber. Conclusion: Miguel Cabrera isn't valuable enough to sell the farm for.

This ignores the risk that Cabrera's production will catastrophicly collapse due to lack of work ethic or alcoholism, which is probably small but bigger than for other players of his caliber.

It also ignores that paying value for a 6 WAR player is a lot more advantageous to a team than paying value for a 3 WAR player or two 2-WAR players or something similar. If you can get a big guy signed to a contract equal to his value, that's a very good thing, not a neutral thing.

Conclusion: Miguel Cabrera isn't valuable enough to sell the farm for.

It may well be faulty, but some of the logic behind targeting Cabrera (for Sox fans) is that providing Detroit with salary relief might mean giving up less of the farm than trading for, say, Adrian Gonzalez.

If you can get a big guy signed to a contract equal to his value, that's a very good thing, not a neutral thing.

Not if you have to trade a bunch of prospects for the right to pay him.

To clarify, I think Cabrera is worth his contract, i.e. I'd sign him at that rate or a little more if he was a FA. But, I don't think his contract is some sort of great asset I'd actually be willing to trade significant value to get.

It means that Clay Buchholz by himself is a bit more valuable than Miggy.

Yes. As a Yankee fan I wouldn't trade Phil Hughes stright up for Cabrera. I'd just go overpay for Holliday.

This ignores the risk that Cabrera's production will catastrophicly collapse due to lack of work ethic or alcoholism

And the fact that sometimes prospects don't pan out.

And the fact that sometimes prospects don't pan out.

No, that's included in the price of prospects. Here's Victor Wang's prospect value table.

btw, my prior post contains a typo.
The first line should read:
Cabrera's remaining contract is 6/$126 - $21mil annual value.

This ignores the risk that Cabrera's production will catastrophicly collapse due to lack of work ethic or alcoholism, which is probably small but bigger than for other players of his caliber.

Again, I don't know what he was like in his early career, but based solely on 2009 I don't think "work ethic" is a problem area for Cabrera. (The drinking, of course, is another issue.) Based on all I had read over the past few years, I expected to see a chubby, lazy player who had no interest in the game outside the batter's box. Instead, IMHO, I saw the exact opposite this year.

First of all, Miguel Cabrera is not fat. He looks pretty trim, actually, though he has a baby face that would admittedly fit better on a chubby guy. If he was fat in 2007, then he's worked extra-hard to lose that weight since he joined the Tigers.

Second, Miguel Cabrera is not a bad defensive player. Again, he probably was in the past, especially as a third baseman, but he has remarkably improved over the past year and a half as a first baseman. I assume that requires practice and hard work. I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually turned into a Gold Glove "contender" at first base, though Teixeira probably has those wrapped up for a few years. FWIW (maybe not much) he ranked fourth behind Kendry Morales, Adrian Gonzalez and Derrek Lee — ahead of Pujols and Teixeira — in Fangraphs' defensive rankings (UZR).

Third, Miguel Cabrera does not seem to be lazy on the field. He plays every day, as someone noted above (no fewer than 157 games in each of his full seasons in the majors). He's not fast but he is an OK baserunner, usually alert and taking the extra base when possible. As far as "hustle" (e.g., running out grounders, breaking up double plays), he's not Nick Punto or Willie Bloomquist, but he compares favorably with any non-Jeter superstar.

One of his "problems," at least as far as perception, is that he is very quiet, both vocally and physically. He rarely talks, he rarely shows emotion on the field, and sometimes he doesn't look like he's trying hard because... well, because that's just the way he looks. He's graceful and balanced for a big guy — whether swinging the bat or running — so it doesn't always look like he's giving 100%. But maybe he is.

Anyway, Cabrera might have had issues with his weight and his work ethic in the past; it looks like he's addressed them. He apparently has issues with alcohol now (and probably in the past); I wouldn't be surprised if he addressed those as well. As far as I can tell, this is a guy who cares, and takes great pride in his performance.

Second, Miguel Cabrera is not a bad defensive player.

I just find this incredibly hard to believe. He's been so unremittingly bad at every position he's tried to play -- and he looked bad when I watched him play against the Mariners and Red Sox this year -- that I'm skeptical about his alleged improvements. I don't rate defensive statistics at all, so those aren't much help.

As to his not being fat? Pretending he's not a big dude is silly. My worry about his weight is related to his drinking -- drunks tend to get fat -- an related to the fact that he hasn't just filled out since the age of 19; he's gotten bigger (and added jowls) without adding a whit of power, and he has jowls, as opposed to a baby face. He had a baby face when he was younger, but it -- like the rest of him -- was much thinner then. And weight worry isn't simply about his being fat, its about his being heavy, which he undeniably is, and immobile, which he also is.

As to his not being fat? Pretending he's not a big dude is silly. My worry about his weight is related to his drinking -- drunks tend to get fat --

Well, a dozen drinks a night is a #### load of calories.

I agree (based on limited observation) that Cabrera does not look fat, and looks quite capable at 1B.

His so-called "decline" the last couple seasons fits an expected result of moving from NL to AL.

But I don't like him.

They need to un-ban greenies so he can pop a few after drinking the night before.

I just find this incredibly hard to believe. He's been so unremittingly bad at every position he's tried to play -- and he looked bad when I watched him play against the Mariners and Red Sox this year -- that I'm skeptical about his alleged improvements. I don't rate defensive statistics at all, so those aren't much help.

If you don't believe in defensive stats and you're judging Cabrera's defense this year on reputation and small-sample observation, I'm sure I can't do anything to sway your opinion. Maybe he played poorly against the Mariners and Red Sox, I don't remember.

However, I will say that I watched about 100-120 Tiger games this year (most on TV, about 5-7 at Comerica) and in my subjective, unprofessional opinion, he improved a lot from the beginning of the year to the end. By July/August, he honestly looked like a good defensive first baseman, making all the easy plays and quite a few of the difficult ones. His range is surprisingly good and he throws well. The stats agreed with me, showing marked improvement in 2009 from previously poor defensive numbers (which confirmed his reputation). Maybe it just was a statistical fluke, but I and a number of other regular observers felt that he really did get better defensively this year. Poor defensive players sometimes can improve if they put in the work, and I think that's what Cabrera did. Leyland and the coaches have said as much.

As to his not being fat? Pretending he's not a big dude is silly.

I didn't say he wasn't big, I said he wasn't fat. I mean, I haven't seen him naked or anything, but he appears to be slim around the waist and doesn't have much of a belly. He's not Ichiro, but this definitely doesn't look like a "fat" player: Pic 1, Pic 2, Pic 3

It's the baggy pants.

I have serious doubts that the Red Sox would go there again, after what they went through with Manny.

Manny was just what that team needed: an elite bat in a hitter's park, and as such gave them tremendous value. The Sox would sign him all over again without hesitation. Miggy isn't quite at that level of offensive performance tho, and I have niggling doubts about his longevity.

Cabrera had a weird, fluky bad beginning to the year and finished it out as his typical self

If I remember correctly, weren't there a bunch of articles about how depressed he was to be going from sunny Florida, where he had a bunch of friends, to the cold witch's ####### that is Detroit? Maybe his mood affected his performance.