So what do the Togers do? Just looking at the organizational depth at bb-ref, it looks like they have some hitting depth, but not where they need it and no starting pitching on the way.

Wooo! Mike Hessman!

So what do the Togers do? Just looking at the organizational depth at bb-ref, it looks like they have some hitting depth, but not where they need it and no starting pitching on the way.

Should they trade Maggs? I think I would in their position. Guillen, too, if I could find a taker.

Their offense has been fine, for the most part. SS and DH have been holes, but you can't expect every position to work out; Renteria and Sheffield were reasonable options (Renteria even moreso).

Their starting pitching has killed them, and the team is slightly underperforming its pythag.

After reading the article, I don't see where this is anything but assumption on the part of the writer. The headline is a bit misleading, as it makes it sound like an announcement from the Tigers front office.

They almost have to trade Ordonez if they want to really cut payroll. They could maybe find a taker for Cabrera, but not many teams would be willing to take on $120 million. I can't imagine they could dump any other big contract without eating a big chunk of the salary. They could handle a small payroll cut, but $40 million is a lot.

Yeah, that's terrible. The author uses terms like "no doubt" and "must-do" and then qualifies them with "likely", "seemingly" etc. As you can tell from any freshman essay, the heavy dependence on altering between unsupported assurance and qualification means he has no idea what he's talking about.

I mean, he starts with the fact that Ilitch it "typically silent," and then uses Dombrowski's claim that it is "too early to tell" as evidence for something, although all it's evidence for is that the owner is acting typically.

Maybe he did hear something and forgot to indicate it, but #5 is absolutely right (though the headline is more than 'a bit' misleading).

They could maybe find a taker for Cabrera, but not many teams would be willing to take on $120 million.

7 years & $120M for a top young hitter? I would expect that a lot of teams would be happy to make room for him, even at that salary.

I can see them finding a taker for Guillen among whoever loses out on the Teixiera sweepstakes

Aye, Miggy is certainly tradable now that he is signed and at a fairly reasonable rate. However, trading him would be a huge blow to the Tigers. Trading Ordonez/Guillen I could see, but trading Miggy who they can at least hang their hat as a part of the "upcoming" great Tigers team would be selling out their entire fan base.

There will be no re-signings of Todd Jones or maybe Kenny Rogers, which is a quick $14 million.

Edgar Renteria will not return, which will mean an $8 million reduction on what it would have cost to pick up his option next season.

Pudge Rodriguez already is gone -- that's $13 million. The man who came to Detroit in exchange for Pudge, Kyle Farnsworth, likely will leave as a free agent.

That's a total of $35 million right there. I think it's possible (but not likely) that they find someone to take Sheffield, who I think will have a better year next year regardless of where he plays. But he won't be playing well enough to earn what he's making, however.

It would not surprise me to see the Tigers think that they're still close enough to success to spend for a low-cost option at SS, maybe another low-cost SP if there's someone available they like, make an effort to sign K-Rod, and still end up with a lower payroll next year than this one even if they sign K-Rod.

Aye, Miggy is certainly tradable now that he is signed and at a fairly reasonable rate. However, trading him would be a huge blow to the Tigers. Trading Ordonez/Guillen I could see, but trading Miggy who they can at least hang their hat as a part of the "upcoming" great Tigers team would be selling out their entire fan base.

They'd be nuts to trade Cabrera. I don't see that happening unless the team goes into a full blown meltdown.

As you can tell from any freshman essay, the heavy dependence on altering between unsupported assurance and qualification means he has no idea what he's talking about.

####. I think that I write like that sometimes.

As you can tell from any freshman essay, the heavy dependence on altering between unsupported assurance and qualification means he has no idea what he's talking about.

####. I think that I write like that sometimes.

I live my life like that sometimes.

They're payroll seems to be around 110 for next year right now if they don't change anything.

I think it's possible (but not likely) that they find someone to take Sheffield

Seriously, I don't think any teams evan consider this (well ok, maybe the Mariners). A league averageish hitter, who can't field, is going to make 14m$, and is the personification of the much vaunted "clubhouse cancer" status...

Cabrera has to be untouchable.
July: .330/.357/.613
August: .317/.440/.780

I'd like to see Joyce, Hollimon, and Larish in the lineup but there aren't enough spots. Raburn deserves a shot somewhere too.

SS and DH have been holes, but you can't expect every position to work out; Renteria and Sheffield were reasonable options (Renteria even moreso).

I think it is safe to say you can expect DH to work out, since it is a freely changeable player. Renteria wasn't as good as the SS on their roster, so that was absolutely a terrible pickup. And Renteria was a good option to go bust.

1,000 runs!!!!!111

Just cause Steve Phillips is an idiot, do Tigers fans have to get taunted about him all year?

Just cause Steve Phillips is an idiot, do Tigers fans have to get taunted about him all year?

Mets fans give a hearty "You bet your ass you do!"

Renteria wasn't as good as the SS on their roster, so that was absolutely a terrible pickup.

In their defense, they only grabbed Renteria due to:
a) concerns over Guillen's ability to stay healthy at SS, due to his knees
b) Guillen's ability to handle 1B offensively.

It still worked out poorly, with Guillen having to move to 3rd due to Cabrera's lack of defense, but it was understandable at the time.

No but Steven Phillips absolutely deserves to get taunted about it all year.

It still worked out poorly, with Guillen having to move to 3rd due to Cabrera's lack of defense, but it was understandable at the time.

I don't agree. Who didn't know Cabrera couldn't handle third (besides teh Marlins and Tigers)? If Guillen's health is a concern, you sign a *backup* SS, and hope he plays sparingly. You don't sign Renteria.

As much was written at the time of the signings.

I wish the Tigers had just signed a good glove (someone like Everett) and kept Jurrjens. Of course, at the time they didn't know they would get Cabrera, but he was known to be available for some time.

And it wasn' just his knees - Guillen could not handle SS defensively anymore.

Just cause Steve Phillips is an idiot, do Tigers fans have to get taunted about him all year?

No, especially when there are so many other things about which we can taunt Tigers fans.

I don't agree. Who didn't know Cabrera couldn't handle third (besides teh Marlins and Tigers)? If Guillen's health is a concern, you sign a *backup* SS, and hope he plays sparingly. You don't sign Renteria.

On further review, I think you're right. I had an incorrect order of events, in that I thought the Tigers traded for Renteria before they traded for Cabrera, rather than the other way around. Had they not traded for Renteria, they could have played Cabrera at 1B, Guillen at SS, and Inge at 3B, and avoided the whole kerfuffle about Inge suddenly finding himself without a position, without weakening their defense.

EDIT: Wait a second - ESPN is showing the Renteria trade as being on 30 OCT 2007, whereas Cabrera was traded on 5 DEC 2007. In that case, I'll take back what I said above. At the time of the Renteria trade, the Tigers needed a 1B, and didn't know that they would be able to successfully trade for Cabrera. Grabbing Renteria solved both the issue of Guillen not being able to stay at SS, and the hole at 1B.

I had an incorrect order of events

no prob. The Tigers don't seem to have "liked" Guillen at short. Shrug.

I had an incorrect order of events, in that I thought the Tigers traded for Renteria before they traded for Cabrera, rather than the other way around.

But they did.

The Tigers don't seem to have "liked" Guillen at short. Shrug

As we've established, the Renteria move came first, and was initially thought to be the Tigers one big move of the offseason. Guillen's D was part of it - but the thinking overall was that Guillen would improve the offence at 1B over Casey and Renteria would be a quality SS, thus overall a stronger team.

Chris, what do your metrics say about Carlos's 07 D? Cause he looked pretty poor to me.

Grabbing Renteria solved both the issue of Guillen not being able to stay at SS, and the hole at 1B.

My point is not meant to be related to the order. You have a SS, and you use him - you *sign* a 1B. There's no reason not to keep Guillen at SS (that I can see).

Chris, what do your metrics say about Carlos's 07 D? Cause he looked pretty poor to me.

Guillen was a -5 over 150 games. Bad news: Renteria was a -11 over 150.

Renteria was just a bad signing that didn't make good sense (to me) at the time. You have a SS. Sign a better hitter than Renteria and leave Guillen at short.

You have a SS, and you use him - you *sign* a 1B.

As a question, among free agents from last offseason, were there any who would have been worth signing to be a starting 1B for less than the Tigers are paying Renteria (Apart from Bonds)? I honestly don't know, as I can't remember the 1B who were available.

were there any who would have been worth signing to be a starting 1B for less than the Tigers are paying Renteria (Apart from Bonds)? I honestly don't know, as I can't remember the 1B who were available.

Sean Casey, Tony Clark and Mike Sweeney were pretty much it.

It doesn't have to be a 1B. It has to be an FA that will hit better than Renteria (which was all of them, I think).

It doesn't have to be a 1B. It has to be an FA that will hit better than Renteria (which was all of them, I think).

Why didn't it have to be someone capable of handling 1B? If they don't sign Renteria and move Guillen, then the Tigers didn't have anyone else on the roster capable of playing 1B (except maybe Sheffield, who has hit just as bad as Renteria).

Chris Shelton. A Thames/someone platoon at 1B would have been OK. Or just starting Thames at 1B.

bad signing

Worse, we gave up Jurrjens for him. Thank god DD pulled off the Cabrera trade. The team has some very good blocks to build around - Granderson, Cabrera, Verlander, Galarraga and Guillen should continue to be useful, Inge is an above-average C, Porcello on the way. I really think that Ordonez should be moved, hopefully for young SPs or a good young SS. With shrewd, aggressive moves, there is no reason the Tigers couldn't win the central as early as '10, or even next year.

It doesn't have to be a 1B. It has to be an FA that will hit better than Renteria (which was all of them, I think).

Oh, just picking up a FA who was going to hit better than Renteria this season is a very low bar for success. If we presume that the Tigers' management were able to travel forward in time and see that Renteria was going to have by far the worst season of his career and his OPS+ would decrease by 50 points from 2007, we should really expect them to be a lot more savvy than just "replace Sean Casey with a 1B whose OPS+ will be above 77".

They should have used their trading chips for Cliff Lee, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Ludwick, and Edinson Volquez, and picked up that Kaeiii Keaieii guy on the Omaha Royals to play first base.

If we presume that the Tigers' management were able to travel forward in time and see that Renteria was going to have by far the worst season of his career and his OPS+ would decrease by 50 points from 2007, we should really expect them to be a lot more savvy than just "replace Sean Casey with a 1B whose OPS+ will be above 77".

Well, yes, the Tigers should have expected his OPS+ to drop 30 points. And since he was old and moving to an unfamiliar league, maybe 40. Okay, not to 75, but I don't think adding 20 points to Edgar's OPS+ is fixing the Tigers woes.

And since he was old and moving to an unfamiliar league, maybe 40. Okay, not to 75, but I don't think adding 20 points to Edgar's OPS+ is fixing the Tigers woes.

It doesn't fix their woes, but it does make him the offensive equivalent to Sean Casey, who was the Tigers regular 1B last season.

Magglio's contract seems pretty reasonable. From this point forward it's really a series of team options from the perspective of a trade partner -- $18MM, $15MM ($3MM buyout), $15MM. Lots of teams would want this and give the Tigers some hot young talent I'd bet. Hmmm...I guess they'd want an OF to replace Magglio and a SS and a pitcher or two. Rays? That is if the Tigers wanted to go this route.

Uhm 18m is over 40% of the rays current payroll...

Detroit's problem isn't that Renteria didn't hit as well as expected. Detroit is 4th in the majors in runs scored. Rather, their problem is that their pitching (ranked 25th in MLB in ERA) sucks. Which ain't exactly a surprise, is it?

It was a surprise that it's been this bad, yes. Most people had them pegged as middle of the pack, IIRC.

It does seem like even before the season people were saying the Tigers will have to have the best offense in baseball to make up for their shaky pitching, but they just might have the best offense in baseball! And if Robertson, Bonderman, Rogers, or Willis (or two of the four) pitch as well as they did in 2006, plus a healthy Verlander, that's a division-winning team.

So the worst-case scenario, which we have now, is that they have the FOURTH best offense in baseball, and none of their starting pitchers pitch as well as they did in 2006. (not even Verlander, whose failure is indeed a surprise)

Uhm 18m is over 40% of the rays current payroll..

Why does this matter? Isn't the more relevant thing what percent it is of next year's revenues, and its impact on margin?

They should have used their trading chips for Cliff Lee, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Ludwick, and Edinson Volquez,

You forgot Ziegler. :-)

"You forgot Ziegler. :-)"

And you forgot Poland.

Why does this matter? Isn't the more relevant thing what percent it is of next year's revenues, and its impact on margin?

It matters because it's indicative of the financial spending power as well as the orginizational philosophy of the franchise. Their highest paid player is set to make 8.25m next year. This just isn't a team, that is going to invest that kind of amount in one player. Especially not if you are asking for several top prospects in return.

As you can tell from any freshman essay, the heavy dependence on altering between unsupported assurance and qualification means he has no idea what he's talking about.

That's a nice way of putting it. I'm going to steal that line.

Most people had them pegged as middle of the pack, IIRC.

Can you have middle of the pack pitching with five starters predicted to be above average?

I think it is safe to say you can expect DH to work out, since it is a freely changeable player.

True there's no excuse for a DH with a .717 OPS, but Sheffield had a decent 2007, and it wasn't unreasonable to think he might have something left. He was horrible the last couple of months of 2007, but hit very well prior to that.

The decision to go with Sheffield was reasonable; it took time to realize that Sheffield had nothing left.

Renteria wasn't as good as the SS on their roster, so that was absolutely a terrible pickup. And Renteria was a good option to go bust.

Agreed that they should have stuck with Guillen as the SS (it's really odd how they've moved him around). You're right there. I still wouldn't have expected Renteria to be this bad.

I still wouldn't have expected Renteria to be this bad.

Well, I wouldn't either, but I would bet PECOTA has a good sized "bust" percentage for Renteria. I would have put Renteria about a 90-95 OPS+. This is even worse.

Pecota had Sheffield (50th percentile projection) at .278/.376/.468, for a .306 EqA.
Dan had him at .269/.366/.438. So not as good. (Though I'm not sure where Dan had the league as a whole at.)

Pecota had Renteria at .272/.336/.380, for a .263 EqA.
Dan had him at .265/.318/.448.

By the way, after the low AL offensive levels to start the year, it doesn't look like there's anything remarkable about the AL now. Runs/game and HR/game aren't particularly noteworthy.

Same for the NL.

That projection for Sheff looks good when his shoulder is working. The last two years when his numbers have been bad they have been bad, because he gets lots of games where he can't swing a bat or throw from the outfield. Bizarre.

Chris I'd be interested in Dan's comp lists going in to the season, but the list of comps at bb-ref are surprisingly good (to me at any rate) players who aged well.