Pass.

Also, please people, stop linking to your own blogs.

I suppose there's a chance he regains his walking ability and puts up an Abreu season, in which case he'd be a steal as he should make about what Bobby did last year. It's pretty hard to be a steal if you're just a 4th outfielder making 4-5 million.

"Also, please people, stop linking to your own blogs."

How could you tell that it's his?

I'm guessing Wily Mo Pena career path, not bad for a team who can focus on what he does well and not really depend on him for a core player. But why should Fenway help his LH power unless he goes down the line?

Is it reasonable to expect Hermida to blossom into Abreu next season? I think that's setting yourself up for disappointment.

How could you tell that it's his?

Circumstantial evidence. There's no way that blog has more than a handful of readers, and every "article" submitted by Cecil Fielder's Gut is to this blog.

Is it reasonable to expect Hermida to blossom into Abreu next season? I think that's setting yourself up for disappointment.

Not likely, I once had an argument with MWE over Hermida, just before his rookie year, I ended up my argument saying Hermida was going to be a lot better hitter- and right away too, than Emeigh thought...

Not one of my better predictions.

I'm still puzzled how a guy could OPS .975 against a league average of .733 (in AA as a 21 year old), with more walks than Ks, could turn out so... eh....

I know Mike's argument and my thought was, "The player Mike describes COULD NOT HAVE DONE in the Southern League what Hermida just did..)

My opinion now? That 2005 AA year was a fluke. 507 PAs where he played well above his true talent level, no more meaningful than Frenchies' 250 PAs in Atlanta that same year. Hermida's career minor league OPS is .833, meaning it is under .800 outside that one year. His career major league OPS+ is 102.

WRT Abreu & Hermida's walk rates
Abreu basically upped his walk rate virtually every year from age 18 to 25.

Hermida has no such pattern, in fact outside of 2005 their is nothing remarkable about his walk rate- good but not great- his MLB walk rate is basically within what you would expect of him based upon his non-2005 minor league numbers.

2005 was a fluke. Hermida's not that good, he's basically a little better than Dan Murphy. (Murphy actually has a better approach- he has the approach I thought Hermida had- Hermida has better tools though)

Also, please people, stop linking to your own blogs.

People complaining about this are 100x more annoying than people linking to their blog.

Having more walks than strikeouts in the minors is a pretty strong indicator of future success. I'd have been fooled as well.

That's why they still pay scouts money, though.

"People complaining about this are 100x more annoying than people linking to their blog."

I disagree. If anything, the reverse is true.

But even if your premise were correct, then having people stop linking to their own blogs would still be the best solution, in that it would stop both the linking and the complaints.

I'm more annoyed that we have three threads about this trade. Which one do I read or post in?

All. Make a different prediction for Hermida in each, then bump the one that makes you look like a genius in 6 months.

I don't really see how he complements Drew, seeing how both are lefthanders. He's not a CFer, and I don't see Bay or Holliday riding much pine. I suppose he could PH for whoever is manning shorstop in Boston next year.

JPWF makes a pretty compelling case, though 2005 AA could be as much an evolution as anything else. I dunno, the backwardness of his development seems to suggest a coaching problem, especially the decline in power. Assuming there is no quirky injury we're unaware of.

Like others have pointed out in the 18 other Hermida threads, his issue seems to be pitch selection almost to the point of nervousness/anxiety about swinging early. A new environment will probably do him well.

Regardless, I lose one of my favorite Marlin nicknames: Hermidaphrodite. At least I still have Han-Ram.

Plus, he didn't categorize this post in any of the relevant newsblogs. I get home from work, and despite the apparent presence of other threads on this topic, none are on Hot Topics so I click on this one. You guys mention other threads, so I want to see them, so I scroll back up to click on the Red Sox beat... no love. I actually have to go find a thread. How weak is that?

I know Mike's argument and my thought was, "The player Mike describes COULD NOT HAVE DONE in the Southern League what Hermida just did..)

You can observe a lot by watching, as Yogi supposedly said. It was hard to match the player I saw play in 2005 with the statistical line he put up; when I actually watched him I couldn't believe how many flat-out bad swings he took.

I think T&B;has it nailed, actually - Hermida needs someone who can get inside his head and convince him it's OK to swing the bat early in the count.

-- MWE

Hermida may never be any good, but the Wily Mo comps are pretty whack. Wily Mo K's 1 per 3 AB, Hermida 1 per 4 -- that's not close. Wily Mo walked about once per 15-16 AB, Hermida 1 per 9 -- again not close. But, yeah, his upside's probably not much more than what Wily Mo's was because he doesn't have Pena's power.

Hermida needs someone who can get inside his head and convince him it's OK to swing the bat early in the count.

Is the tiny ship from this movie still available? We could power it up and send Stephen Boyd and Raquel Welch in to give it a try . . . .

Sam M. with the Isaac Asimov reference!