For Martinez, given the 2010 option, you have to get at least 2 of those pitchers, plus Lars Anderson, plus a reliever.

V-Mart's a fine player, but I think you are overestimating the value of having him for a season and a half.

"A likely suitor" - no ####. The hangup is in the "if". Guarantee those Cleveland scouts in Portland/Pawtucket have zero to do with Victor Martinez.

Really doubt there's anything to the Martinez rumors. Varitek is averageish and signed cheaply for the life of Martinez's contract. Even if Boston wants him, they're not going to outbid all the teams out there with shitty catchers.

Martinez in Boston?? It's a nice short-term fit if Lowell is out long but it only works long-term if they are giving up on Ortiz and/or Lowell for 2010 or Martinez can still catch most of the time (about which I have my doubts).

Don't get me wrong, a really good player and an obvious improvement to pretty much any team, even the Sox. But not necessarily a big enough marginal improvement over 2009-10 (and beyond) to be worth it for the Sox to give up 2 top prospects. (I would probably give up one in their shoes.)

At that price, if he can still catch 120 games a year, he would be a godsend to Tampa. (OK, to almost anybody really) But if he can't catch, the non-Red Sox market is ... the Mets (F-Mart plus)? the Dodgers (prospects plus Loney)?

This would piss me off.

Right or wrong, I don't think the Mets are trading Fernando Martinez.

Martinez in Boston?? It's a nice short-term fit if Lowell is out long but it only works long-term if they are giving up on Ortiz and/or Lowell for 2010 or Martinez can still catch most of the time (about which I have my doubts).

Given Theo's history, though, I think he'd be willing to take on Martinez on the theory that for Martinez to have a high value to the Red Sox, only one of those three things needs to happen. If any one of the following is the case: (a) Lowell is ineffective or hurt for 2010 or (b) Ortiz is ineffective or hurt for 2010 or (c) Martinez' defense at C picks up as he recovers, then Martinez has a lot of value to the Sox. Epstein loves depth, and he's shown over his tenure that he rarely worries that he might end up with too many good players at a position or a set of positions.

It all depends on the matchup - would the Indians trade Martinez, does their evaluation of Red Sox prospects match up with the Red Sox' evaluation, and so on - so I have no idea what would be a likely package or whether a likely package exists. But I don't think that the risk of overloading 1B/3B/DH in 2010 will be much of a factor in the decision-making of the Red Sox.

What was with the weird thing where VMart couldn't hit HRs last year? Some sort of injury, I assume?

What was with the weird thing where VMart couldn't hit HRs last year? Some sort of injury, I assume?

It was an elbow injury, which kept him out for about half a season.

Did someone just say that Boston shouldn't acquire an All-Star catcher because he's redundant - Varitek is on the case?!?!?!

I doubt Lowell is a hang-up. Theo looked more than willing to find a new home for him when he was bidding on Teixeira.

Did someone just say that Boston shouldn't acquire an All-Star catcher because he's redundant - Varitek is on the case?!?!?!

Is this in reference to a post in this thread, or do you have a kind of spidey sense telling you that some Red Sox fan, somewhere, is making a bad argument?

would be perfect for Boston for 2009-2010 (I have no idea what it would take to get him though).

even if (big if) all these 30 and older players are healthy, they could do:

Lowell - 135 starts (leaving 27 starts at 1b for Victor w/ Youk at 3rd)
Ortiz - 140 starts (leaving 20 starts at DH for Victor.. or 1st with Lowell or Youk at DH)
Varitek - 60 starts (leaving 100 starts at C for Victor)
thats 147 right there, and doesnt include the days Youk needs off

Is this in reference to a post in this thread, or do you have a kind of spidey sense telling you that some Red Sox fan, somewhere, is making a bad argument?

probably a reference to #4?

God I hope it's the latter. I want to know someone with super powers.

Epstein loves depth, and he's shown over his tenure that he rarely worries that he might end up with too many good players at a position or a set of positions.

Has he? They've certainly done that with the starting pitching this season, but the closest I can see to this on the position side is Crisp on the bench last year. The Red Sox usually have a good bench but its still one of bench players, not starting quality players.

Theo looked more than willing to find a new home for [Lowell] when he was bidding on Teixeira.

Sure, but who wants Lowell at that price, with a "recurring hip problem". So how much of Lowell's contract do they have to eat? Is Lowell happy to take a bench spot in 2010?

Did someone just say that Boston shouldn't acquire an All-Star catcher because he's redundant - Varitek is on the case?!?!?!

Nope. I suggested that Martinez, never considered a particularly good defensive C (perhaps unfairly, I have no idea), coming off injury, playing only half his games at C this season, turning 31 is not necessarily going to be a starting C for much longer. It is obviously possible that he will continue to be a good enough defensive C, in which case he's one of the most valuable commodities in baseball.

So let's reiterate. V Martinez would improve any team in baseball. But if he is no longer (or soon won't be) a regular C, then his marginal value to the Red Sox is not huge ... unless they think that Lowell and/or Ortiz is done for 2010. Again, to obtain Martinez, they would increase payroll by $7 M (not a big deal), trade 2 top prospects (to outbid other teams if nothing else), and "eat" some portion of Lowell/Ortiz/Varitek ... for a team that's already eating 2010 money on Lugo, might want to re-sign Bay (or replace him somehow), an arb raise to Papelbon, a possible re-signing (at much greater money) of Penny or Smoltz if they work out, etc.

It's not impossible, it's not even necessarily a bad move. But it's a lot of maneuvering, money and talent for what is a nice but not necessary improvement to the team.

If you think Lowell or Ortiz is done, or at least the probability of at least one of them being done is close to one, then you're eating that money anyway and this move makes a lot more sense.

Has he? They've certainly done that with the starting pitching this season, but the closest I can see to this on the position side is Crisp on the bench last year. The Red Sox usually have a good bench but its still one of bench players, not starting quality players.

In '03 he had five guys for the corner spots, and in '04 and '05 he kept Youkilis waiting around as insurance at 1B/3B. In '04 he also traded for Mientkiewicz as an extra 1B for that rotation. Epstein has had basically certain production out of those spots for a couple years, while he's carried lots of extra depth in the rotation. It's not that every single year Theo acquires extra players, but when he's had more uncertain production (as in CF last year), he's been more than open to overloading a position to guarantee production from someone.

If the Red Sox wouldn't use Victor at catcher, there's no way they give up any two of Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden. Much less adding Lars Anderson. I wouldn't do Buchholz, Masterson, Anderson, and a reliever for Martinez if Cleveland's package included Carlos Santana. Or Sizemore. You're asking the Sox to essentially cough up all of the prizes of their minor league system. They're going to want to raid some serious talent in return.

You're asking the Sox to essentially cough up all of the prizes of their minor league system.

Cleveland has no above average players at 1B,DH or C and, in that division, they could easily win in 2010 with a couple of additions/bouncebacks.

Why would they trade Martinez for less than a king's ransom of talent? This is a guy putting up a line of 313/393/523 while playing 39 of 78 games at C. He'd immediately be one of the top-2 offensive players on the Red Sox.

Are we talking about the same Lars Anderson hitting 257/354/405 in AA? Sure, he's young and could still develop, but I can't imagine any team looks at him as any more than a throw in type.

For the Indians, he'd certainly be behind LaPorta, who's struggled in the majors but at least has hit 375/529 in AAA.

Eric Wedge no like young players. Want more players like Carl Pavano.

Are we talking about the same Lars Anderson hitting 257/354/405 in AA? Sure, he's young and could still develop, but I can't imagine any team looks at him as any more than a throw in type.

You're joking, right?

For Martinez, given the 2010 option, you have to get at least 2 of those pitchers, plus Lars Anderson, plus a reliever.

Not gonna happen. Former #1 prospect, current #1, current 2 or 3 (depending on whether you rank Bowden ahead of Casey Kelly) and a ML reliever (Delcarmen? Saito?) Even given the option that's a ridiculous amount to ask.

For the Indians, he'd certainly be behind LaPorta, who's struggled in the majors but at least has hit 375/529 in AAA.

LaPorta did that at age 24.
Laporta, age 23, AA: .279/.386/.539
Anderson, ages 20-21, AA: .277/.383/.446
Some scouts think he's overrated but he's far more than a "throw in type."

Whenever anyone mentions a possible trade by a big market team, someone always pipes up to say that said team will have to give up 3/4 of its farm system, never seeming to remember that is never, ever how it works. Very good players like Martinez get dealt and it's never for a package like the one described in #1.

That's funny, I thought this thread was about Victor Martinez, not Albert Pujols. Does anybody really think The Red Sox are going to trade Masterson, Buchholz, and Bowden, much less Anderson for Victor Martinez?

Last year, the Brewers sent LaPorta and three nothing-much minor-league pitchers for Sabathia. Sabathia was the 2007 Cy Young winner.

In 2004, the Braves sent Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas for Tim Hudson...and that was for a full season of Hudson.
In 2004, the Cardinals sent Daric Barton, Danny Haren, and Kiko Calero for two seasons of control of Mark Mulder.
In 2007, the Braves sent Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and two throw in minor-leaguers for Ron Mahay and 1 1/2 seasons of Mark Teixera. (The Braves turned him into Casey Kotchman the next trade deadline.)

I'm trying to figure out what a reasonable approximation would be for Martinez. Teixara is a better player than Martinez, and the Rangers got a good young catcher and a legit SS prospect (plus three pitchers). For half-a-season of Sabathia, the Brewers gave up a legit hitting prospect. It seems to me that the value of Martinez is somewhere in the middle...say, Delcarmen and Buchholz, or Bard and Bowden. I don't see the Red Sox doing either of those...

Are we talking about the same Lars Anderson hitting 257/354/405 in AA? Sure, he's young and could still develop, but I can't imagine any team looks at him as any more than a throw in type.

For the Indians, he'd certainly be behind LaPorta, who's struggled in the majors but at least has hit 375/529 in AAA.

Just FYI for you, most teams base their evaluations on more than a half-season of stats.

Last year, the Brewers sent LaPorta and three nothing-much minor-league pitchers for Sabathia. Sabathia was the 2007 Cy Young winner.

Not exactly true. One of those players was Michael Brantley, a 22 year old that has a career OBP of .388.

Now, he has no power, and he isn't expected to be a CF, so there are certainly questions about how he will play in the majors, but I don't think he's a nothing much player.

As far as coment #1, I just assumed it was a Yankee fan hoping the Sox get weaker as a system, not a comment to be taken at face value.

Now, he has no power, and he isn't expected to be a CF, so there are certainly questions about how he will play in the majors, but I don't think he's a nothing much player.

I don't know anthing about the guy but what you said and unless he is very young for his league that seems like a nothing much.

Lars Anderson is more than a throw-in, but he is basically a perfect storm for being overrated:

-He's a 1B, so people tend to forget how much he'll have to rake to be an asset there.

-He put up big numbers the last two years, but they were very BABIP-heavy in hitters paradises.

-He plays for Boston.

Right now he's a guy who has put up MLE OPS's of .531, .622, and .589 in his three years in professional ball (according to minorleaguesplits.com), and he strikes out at an alarmingly high rate. He's still very young, but he's much more projection than reality right now.

"Teixara is a better player than Martinez,"

Martinez is a worse hitter, but he can play catcher. He doesn't right now for the Indians, but that is because the Indians backup catcher is a better hitter than their other 1B options. Tex was also going to be paid $12M in the full year of his deal, Martinez only $7M. OTOH, Tex was 3 years younger.


All together, I think the Tex package is a reasonable estimate for what Martinez would fetch. 2 legitimate prospects and some filler.

How is Neftali Feliz a throw-in? He's a better prospect than anyone the Red Sox would trade for Victor Martinez.

I think the first Tex deal is a good example of what it'd take for the Red Sox to get Martinez, and I'd say it'd involve Buchholz, Anderson, and another decent prospect (doubtful it'd be Kelly, Reddick or even Bowden).

That seems reasonable. I would pass if it involved Clay, but I'm being a fanboy, Bowden, Lars and a filler type would be expensive about inline with what I would expect.

I think the first Tex deal is a good example of what it'd take for the Red Sox to get Martinez, and I'd say it'd involve Buchholz, Anderson, and another decent prospect (doubtful it'd be Kelly, Reddick or even Bowden).

In other words, the Sox shouldn't do it.

If it doesn't require Fernando, the Mets should get in on the VMartinez sweepstakes. He fits the Mets' needs pretty well.

The other guy that would be enticing would be Travis Hafner, who Cleveland may be looking to flip for youth anyway.

I don't think Hafner can play the field at all.

Lars Anderson may be a a bit overrated (at least in the sense the epic orgasim Peter Gammons have on him is over the top) but he's more than a throw in type thats for sure.

I'd think that Bucholz + one of Masterson or Bowden + Anderson is a very reasonable for Martinez. given that he's a special bat with 1 1/2 year left and can at least catch part of the time.

The offer in Post #1 is almost as much as I gave up for Hanley in a 12 team keeper with stricter roster caps than a 40 man roster and 5 MiLB clubs per team, not to mention a far higher definition of replacement player. In other words, I wouldn't see it happening.

Even with Anderson's warts, he's still the type of guy you hold on to: the chance for a pre-arb DH/1B type (Could he fake LF?) at near minimum? Even spenders like the Sox don't sniff at that. Look at the value Lind is for the Jays: that (or anything even close to it in Anderson's case) just funds the Sox's being able to spend elsewhere, something they've been more likely to do for retention than aquisition that I can see, but with Mauer coming, we might see a change.

I'm also in the camp that sees the Sox needing all of their pitching depth for this season, something I think Neyer's pointed out in his blog. With Buch, there's some serious chance for him to go all Price in the playoffs, right, even if the SP they're using somehow are effective or healthy all year, no?

Another thing to keep in mind about the Red Sox pitching prospects: they are much closer to being major-league ready than most other teams' prospects.

Bard has already shown the ability to pitch well at the major-league level, even in some hgh-leverage situations.

Masterson has already shown an ability to pitch well as a starter, and as a reliever.

Delcarmen has pitched well as a setup man over many appearances at the MLB level.

Buchholz, while not successful in his first extended stint in the majors, is clearly closer to ready thatn most starting pitching prospects. He's thrown a no-hitter, and he has completely dominated AAA over an extended period.

Bowden has also pitched very well at AAA for an extended period (as compared to a prospect who has pitched well in A or AA), and has been very effective in limited major-league appearances.

As a player demonstrates the ability to perform well at higher and higher levels, it lessens the risk that the pitcher will a) blow out their arm on the way up, and b) hit the competitive wall as they climb the ladder.

Every one of the five young pitchers above has pitched in the majors, and three of them are meaningful parts of the best team in the AL's bullpen...which is often described as the best in baseball. This relatively low risk for the Indians, should they want to make a trade, means they get fewer players from the Red Sox, but quality, inexpensive players ready to join their major-league roster today. That has significant value.

#31 is a lot closer to what Lars is. He's had very pretty numbers, but even in his brief, good time in AA last year, he was striking out too much. He's still doing that and it's finally caught up with him. It's disappointing but it certainly doesn't make him a throw in. The 2 top prospects package sounds reasonable. And the Sox need depth at 1b/3b/c/dh more than they need at pitcher, where they have plenty.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Indians to deal VMart if they can get near ready, front-end pitching prospects in return. They have very few ways to improve their rotation the next few years, Vic is a goner (or Hafner part 2) after next season, and an organizational traffic jam on the way at C/1B/LF/DH.

I think the first point is the key -- How in the heck does a team with no money and few serious pitching prospects in the high minors? If you hold onto Lee, how do you improve the rotation for 2010? And if you deal Lee, can you really compete in 2010 anyway? In that case, why not deal Martinez?

It sucks to have to deal Martinez, but this is the bed that Shapiro and his team have made.

You mean that the Red Sox don't want Miguel Olivo?