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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Hindman: Debunking the Myth of Money: A Manifesto on Pitching (RR)

Your professional print and broadcast bloviators have brainwashed too many of you into believing that the answer to all of the Rangers pitching problems is for Tom Hicks to “open up his wallet” and pay for it. Sounds good. And most of you seem to believe it.

The only problem is that it isn’t true. Going out and spending money on free agent starters hasn’t worked here, and generally doesn’t work anywhere else.

...The truth is that there really aren’t any shortcuts. You draft it, you sign it out of the Caribbean, you develop it, you grow it, and then you milk it for all it’s worth while it’s young and under your control. And then if after spending all of those years getting to know everything there is to know about the guy, if you want to keep him, you sign him to stay home before he he hits the free agent market. If you can’t get that done, you trade him away for more kids. That’s the formula. That’s what Jon Daniels seems to be working towards.

Here’s hoping that Nolan Ryan doesn’t succeed in getting Tom Hicks to “open up his wallet and get some pitching in here” because the truth is, it probably won’t work.

Thanks to Frank Bertaina Rules the Waves!

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:00 PM | 22 comment(s)
Related News: General, Business, Texas

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1. TWO!-OH!-OH!-OH! CLAP!-CLAP!-CLAP!CLAP!CLAP! Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2910191)

Not designating Armando Galarraga for assignment during spring training would have been one cheap way to have more pitching in Arlington.

2. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: August 20, 2008 at 12:58 PM (#2910199)

Jon Daniels working on getting pitching is like me working on designing the next generation of nuclear warhead.

3. Jim Wisinski endorses Ben Zobrist's MVP candidacy Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2910219)

You also don't trade away Chris Young for Adam Eaton in a deal that was mind-blowingly dumb from the moment you made it and actually got worse afterwards!

4. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#2910238)

You also don't trade make lateral challenge trades involving John Danks.

Or trade Justin Duchscherer for Luiz Vizcaino. Or Aaron Harang for Randy Velarde.

I think the moral is don't let any pitcher go ever.

5. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2910305)

Or trade Volquez for Hamilton....

6. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: August 20, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#2910318)

They could try getting a defense. Move Michael Young to 3rd and find a premium defender at short, keep Josh Hamilton in a corner and get a speed burner to play center.

I doubt they move Young, as he's pretty much Derek Jeter southwest. No matter what evidence exists to the contrary, they probably think he's a great defender.

A poor defense and an extreme hitters park make building a pitching staff a very difficult task.

7. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: August 20, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#2910333)

You also don't trade away Chris Young for Adam Eaton in a deal that was mind-blowingly dumb from the moment you made it and actually got worse afterwards!
Would it be cruel to mention that Adam Eaton would be available for a bucket of sunflower seeds, and the Phils would eat 7 of the 8 million dollars owed him next year?

Thinking about it for a moment, you could wait 'til the Phils cut him late next Spring Training when the miracle to turn Eaton into someone serviceable does not happen and get him for the minimum and get to enjoy the sunflower seeds yourself.

8. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 20, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#2910339)

keep Josh Hamilton in a corner and get a speed burner to play center.

Couldn't they just move Byrd to CF and Hamilton to RF for a quick boost?

9. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2910340)

I don't know that anyone thinks that Young's defense at SS is great. Most people I know think he's either average or slightly below (which may be optimistic, but not horrifically so IMO).

However, Young has earned the ability to keep playing short until such time as there is a worthy replacement. Arias ain't it. Andrus might be it, but he's not ready yet.

Mike knows his Rangers' baseball (ESPECIALLY the minor leagues), but in this case he needs to understand that the quickest route to success is breaking the bank for Sabathia or (more likely) Sheets.

Would the Rangers be better with Young playing 3B and an Adam Everett type playing SS? I don't know that anyone knows for sure. Of course, I always thought the sabermetric argument involved playing hitters as far left on the defensive spectrum as their talents would allow...

10. Johnny Clash Posted: August 20, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2910407)

That was a pretty compelling column. Point made.

11. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: August 20, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2910411)

Would the Rangers be better with Young playing 3B and an Adam Everett type playing SS? I don't know that anyone knows for sure. Of course, I always thought the sabermetric argument involved playing hitters as far left on the defensive spectrum as their talents would allow...

That's an outdated sabermetric argument. What they should do is play the best combination of offense + defense, regardless of whether it leans toward offense or defense. It might be that the best option the Rangers have is to bludgeon their opponents and not worry about pitching, like the Raffy/Pudge/JuanGone Rangers did. I don't know the answer.

If they want to fix the pitching though, Young moving to an easier position would be a step in the right direction. If his defense at short is poor enough to be an obstacle to improvement and they leave him there because he's "earned the right to stay there" then there's no reason to worry about the Rangers contending anytime soon.

12. Walt Davis Posted: August 20, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2910439)

"earned the right to stay there"

In fairness to #9, that's not what he said (though I have no idea what "earned the ability" means :-) but more importantly he made it clear that he should stay at SS until they have a "worthy replacement."

As you yourself would say, as long as Young provides the best combo of offense and defense at SS, he should be the SS for the Rangers. If the other SS the Rangers have are all TPJ's in waiting ...

13. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: August 20, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2910460)

The thing is, the Rangers have most of the pieces that everybody here is talking about. Feliz and Holland are the kind of pitchers that could be very special one day (plus a number of guys with potential). Andrus is an above average SS with the bat and glove. Borbon and Beltre project to be stellar defensive CF. The problem is that they are not ready yet. Despite the mistakes Daniels has made, he has built one hell of a farm system. I'm confident that Daniels has learned from his mistakes. But... what about Galarraga? He is benefiting nicely from a low BABIP. His minor league numbers show a WHIP that is much higher than what it is now. Still, Daniels should have cut ties with Tejeda over Galarraga, but he is not the type of pitcher who looked to be a reliable starter.

14. Vance W Posted: August 20, 2008 at 05:28 PM (#2910603)

You have to wonder about scouting/assessment in the Rangers organization. Daniels doesn't purport to be a pitching maven. Somebody is telling him that Chris Young has no upside, that Brandon McCarthy is a better bet than John Danks and Armando Galarraga is more expendable than Robinson Tejeda. These were all disastrously wrong calls. They absolutely have to get their scouting/assessment department toghether before the impressive new wave of minor league talents approaches the majors or history will only repeat itself.

15. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#2910620)

(though I have no idea what "earned the ability" means :-)

It means I need more sleep...or thin out the blood in my caffeine stream...

It's generally accepted wisdom around here that Showalter was the one pushing to trade Chris Young. Most Ranger fans thought Danks was going to be good, just not quite this soon...and had McCarthy doing what Danks is doing now in a Ranger uniform. As for Galarraga, well...Jason Jennings was the type of low-risk, high-upside signing that I wanted the Rangers to make just in case they caught lightning in the bottle. You have to give Daniels credit for acquiring him in the trade with the Nationals in the first place.

Patience is a ##### sometimes...

16. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 05:43 PM (#2910621)

Interesting...you can't even be a female dog with a ! in place of the i...

Ya learn something new every day...

17. Vance W Posted: August 20, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2910672)

Oh I'm all about patience and firmly believe Daniels is on the right track. One fine day in the future, Daniels is going to be discussing trading for a young pitcher or trading a young pitcher and I would feel alot better if there were somebody in the organization with good evaluation skills.

Correct on Jennings--a worthwhile flyer that didn't work out. The question was who to bump off the 40 man roster. Hey, based on what I knew I would have kept Tejeda too but then again nobody's paying me to evaluate pitchers.

18. a bebop a rebop Posted: August 20, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2910690)

Tejeda got picked up by Kansas City and is having a pretty good year himself. Daniels clearly has whatever malady is the opposite of the Midas Touch.

19. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 20, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2911053)

Daniels clearly has whatever malady is the opposite of the Midas Touch.

It's called leprosy.

20. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: August 20, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2911056)

As you yourself would say, as long as Young provides the best combo of offense and defense at SS, he should be the SS for the Rangers.

Close, but I'd say that Young should stay at shortstop as long as him at short and whoever at 3rd is the best combination for the team. To pick an extreme example, not that this applies to Young, but Albert Pujols would provide a better combination of offense + defense at shortstop for the Cards. That does not mean he should be the shortstop.

It might be in the team's best interests to lean in the favor of defense at a few key positions anyway. A poor defense not only costs your pitchers runs, it makes them throw deeper into innings. It brings in the bullpen earlier, and in some cases it will wear down your bullpen over the course of the season.

21. a bebop a rebop Posted: August 20, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#2911108)

Three pitchers have already thrown complete games today: Mike Pelfrey, Brett Myers, and Kevin Millwood. How uncommon an occurrence is that? That's in addition to CC's the other night.

EDIT: and Ricky Nolasco yesterday. Seems like a real bumper crop.

22. tjm1 Posted: August 21, 2008 at 05:32 AM (#2911213)

That was a pretty compelling column. Point made.

I don't think it really is that compelling. It's true - the best way to get good pitching is either to draft the guys or trade for them when they're very young. This is because established starting pitching generally never hits the free agent market. Teams lock those guys up. This off-season really will be different. I don't think you can look at those high price free agents in that article and come to the conclusion that any of them looked remotely like as good a chance for success as Sabathia does right now. Looking only at the successful pitchers to evaluate how to find successful pitchers ignores all the guys who have been drafted and/or traded for as minor leaguers who flamed out. The flame-out rate of pitchers drafted, even in the first few rounds, is worse than that even for the free agent signees here.

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Hindman: Debunking the Myth of Money: A Manifesto on Pitching (RR)

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