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Sunday, November 01, 2009

Hoffman: Phils need a new plan

Or a new drug...as Hoffman supplies some cognitive shifting.

My map-to-four really did not mention the name Cole Hamels. The reason is that I did not see the possibility of Hamels pitching a gem—not at this point, not after all of these months. I just didn’t see how it could happen against this potent a lineup. That it did not happen in Game 3 should shock no one. That Hamels circled the drain early, again, was always the likely outcome.

...And now, Sabathia vs. Joe Blanton in Game 4. Sabathia vs. Blanton in the game that will either even the series or push the Phillies to the precipice. There are people who wanted to see Lee in Game 4 on short rest but it really would have been a panic move. There are people who would have rather seen Happ in this starting spot in the playoffs instead of Blanton, and that will be the great off-season debate if this all goes badly. There are arguments both ways—because Happ was so good for so long on the one hand, but also because Happ hasn’t seen the seventh inning since August, before he suffered that oblique injury. The answer there is unknown and unknowable.

This is what they are left with, Sabathia vs. Blanton. And I have to tell you, I don’t know a lot of people who had them winning this one as they drew up their own personal roadmaps to a repeat championship. And, well, as Manuel said, “If we’re going to get going, it’s time for us to do it.”

Meanwhile, a single voice loudly shouted as the fans filed past the press box toward the exits: “Seven-game series, folks. Seven-game series.”

Repoz Posted: November 01, 2009 at 10:16 AM | 35 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY YankeesPhiladelphia

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   1. TVerik and his cavalcade of whimsy  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 09:44 AM (#3373326)
because Happ hasn’t seen the seventh inning since August


Didn't he pitch the seventh last night?
   2. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 09:50 AM (#3373330)
Yes, but he did it with his eyes closed.
   3. KronicFatigue  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 10:26 AM (#3373337)
As a Yankee fan, if they were down 2-1 and decided to pitch Gaudin over CC on short rest, I'd be going crazy.
   4. joeysdadjoe  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 10:49 AM (#3373350)
I'm expecting as a Yankees fan to win game 4 ,lose game 5 and go home needing 1 game.Which should be game 6
   5. sunnyday2  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 10:57 AM (#3373355)
Clearly, there is no road map to a WC for the Phillies being down 2-1 with CC vs. Blanton coming up. Anything can happen, but nobody would have chalked that up to the Phillies before game 1.

I picked the Phillies in 7 but given the game 3 and 4 pitching match-ups, the Phillies really needed a sweep in NY and that wouldn't be something you would have predicted before game 1 either. I guess that, as an AL fan, I didn't realize just how badly awry Hamels has gone.

So let's say it's CC and the Yankees tonight. Then let's see....

Game 5--Down 3-1, Lee beats Burnett. Plausible.
Game 6--Down 3-2 and back in Yankee Stadium, Pedro beats Pettitte. Could happen but it's not 50-50.
Game 7--Even at 3-3, obviously, Hamels beats CC? No way.

So the Phillies either needed to sweep 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to sweep 6 and 7 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to win tonight. Better win tonight. Better have a reliever warming up on the opening pitch.

Lee in Game 4 on short rest but it really would have been a panic move.


Or, on the other hand, maybe a panic move is what's called for.
   6. Joey B.  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:01 AM (#3373357)
Count me among the people who think they're making a big mistake in not starting Lee tonight.

It's an absolute must-win game for the Phils, and I don't like the odds when you're starting Blanton against Sabathia. There will be plenty of time to rest in the offseason.
   7. Biff uses the power of mental thinking  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:09 AM (#3373360)
I don't agree with the implicit assumption that Sabathia is going to throw a gem every single time on three days rest.
   8. Tom Nawrocki  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:09 AM (#3373362)
These same Phillies pounded the piss out of Sabathia last postseason. No reason it can't happen again.
   9. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:11 AM (#3373363)
I don't agree with the implicit assumption that Sabathia is going to throw a gem every single time on three days rest.

There's a good chance Sabathia only needs to be pretty good for the Yankees to win tonight. Blanton is a decent pitcher, but the Yankees can really hit. Crazier things have happened and crazier things will continue to happen, but expecting Joe Blanton to shut the Yankees down seems a bit of a stretch.
   10. snapper  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:14 AM (#3373365)
Or, on the other hand, maybe a panic move is what's called for.

Yup, it's time to panic.
   11. sunnyday2  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 11:14 AM (#3373366)
These same Phillies pounded the piss out of Sabathia last postseason. No reason it can't happen again.


So are you saying the Phillies win 8-7 or lose 8-7?
   12. Gamingboy  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3373392)
Obviously, the Phillies are going the Rocky route. After failing in their first attempt and then winning the title last year, they are doing their best to be embarrassed this year, so that they can defeat the Yankees next year by using the Rope-A-Dope. They will then play the Russians, after which a few bad decisions will lead to a game of Street Baseball against the Upstart Marlins. Then, years later, they will have a exhibition game against the Champ... in Vegas!

Oh, and I think it's like this: If the Phillies somehow beat Sabathia tonight, they will win this series. If they lose, they will probably force a game 6 by winning Game 5, but will be unable to win both Game 6 and 7.
   13. Fat Al  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 12:32 PM (#3373394)
These same Phillies pounded the piss out of Sabathia last postseason. No reason it can't happen again.


They were getting very good swings off of him in game 1 also. The score did not reflect the quality of their looks at CC. They weren't being fooled.
   14. NYCTigersfan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 01:02 PM (#3373406)
It's an absolute must-win game for the Phils

No it's not. The Yankees would still need to win another game.

There will be plenty of time to rest in the offseason.

It's not just for "rest." Pitchers generally perform worse when throwing on short rest in the playoffs. And increase chances of injury. And not only that, you'd be starting him twice in a row on short rest, not just tonight. Unless you're only going to throw him twice in the series, in which case there's no reason not to make it game 5 rather than game 4.
   15. NYCTigersfan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3373410)
So let's say it's CC and the Yankees tonight. Then let's see....

Game 5--Down 3-1, Lee beats Burnett. Plausible.
Game 6--Down 3-2 and back in Yankee Stadium, Pedro beats Pettitte. Could happen but it's not 50-50.
Game 7--Even at 3-3, obviously, Hamels beats CC? No way.

So the Phillies either needed to sweep 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to sweep 6 and 7 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to win tonight. Better win tonight. Better have a reliever warming up on the opening pitch.


This is just silly. Baseball is a series of events largely caused by randomness. The best team will beat a good team slightly more than half the time. This hyperbolizing of the predictability of the game is something usually reserved for the MSM and used just to give people something to talk about.
   16. Swedish Chef  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 01:22 PM (#3373412)
This is just silly. Baseball is a series of events largely caused by randomness. The best team will beat a good team slightly more than half the time.

Randomness does not imply that the result can't be influenced by making correct decisions, and choice of the starting pitcher is important as hell.

According to the line, the Yankees has a 64% chance to win tonight. That's not just slightly more than half, it's a very bad home line for the Phillies. The gamblers don't seem to have much confidence in Blanton.
   17. NYCTigersfan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 01:34 PM (#3373418)
Randomness does not imply that the result can't be influenced by making correct decisions, and choice of the starting pitcher is important as hell.

Yes, but that statement doesn't support the idea that Hamels has no chance of beating CC on short rest.

The gamblers don't seem to have much confidence in Blanton.

Gamblers aren't necessarily a good prediction tool.
   18. Walt Davis  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 02:04 PM (#3373427)
Didn't he pitch the seventh last night?

I think the writer is referring to Happ not making it to the 7th in his last 5 starts of the regular season.
   19. TVerik and his cavalcade of whimsy  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 02:12 PM (#3373429)
I know what he's referring to, Walt. But if you want to get all fancy with the phrasing, I think it's on you to make sure that it's all accurate on the face.
   20. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Marching Through Georgia  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 02:38 PM (#3373432)
The gamblers don't seem to have much confidence in Blanton.


Gamblers aren't necessarily a good prediction tool.

In Game 1 the Yanks were 168-183 favorites. Anyone betting $100 on Lee would have made $168. The Yankees are nearly always an overlay because of their huge national fan base and the relatively clueless nature of the casual bettor.
   21. Textbook Editor  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 02:47 PM (#3373438)
Biff, re: #7--I completely agree. I was trying to think of the last team that went with a 3-man rotation in the WS where each of the 3 starters pitched on 3 days' rest in even a 6-game series and could not come up with one since the Wild Card era began in 1995. Does anyone know the last time it was tried in a 7-game series?

What should give Phillies fans hope is not just that Sabbathia was beaten already, but that he has to pitch 2 times in the next 4 days, and that while sure, they've done it before and are rested, etc., Pettite and Burnett have to both pitch on 3 days' rest as well. It's not that they can't, or won't pitch well in each case, but starting tonight the Phillies need to work counts and drive up pitch counts. I can certainly see a path to a WC for the Phillies, even if they lose tonight. I think Charlie has enough nerve to start Hamels in Game 7, but I also think he might pull him after 3 IP and go to Lee and tell him to give him as many outs as possible before going to the pen, and it's not unreasonable that Lee could have 3-4 IP in him for a Game 7, even on 2 days' rest.

And if the Phillies win tonight, well, then I really like their chances, since I certainly could see them going back to the Bronx up 3-2.
   22. sunnyday2  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 02:56 PM (#3373441)
And if the Phillies win tonight, well, then I really like their chances, since I certainly could see them going back to the Bronx up 3-2.


Well yeah. That's my point. And if they lose tonight, not so much.

As to Biff's #7, who said or implied that CC will pitch a "gem?" The point is he may not have to. The point is What Blanton's gonna do. The point is that the Phillies' odds overall are not great right now down 2-1 and with an unfavorable pitching matchup. Of course the Phillies could beat the piss out of CC tonight. But how many runs are they going to need?
   23. Weekly Journalist_  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:06 PM (#3373443)
I think pettitte in the pen for rest of the series would be a great weapon.
   24. snapper  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:07 PM (#3373444)
I think Charlie has enough nerve to start Hamels in Game 7, but I also think he might pull him after 3 IP and go to Lee and tell him to give him as many outs as possible before going to the pen, and it's not unreasonable that Lee could have 3-4 IP in him for a Game 7, even on 2 days' rest.

If Lee can give you 3-4 IP in game 7, why wouldn't you make it the first 3-4?

The World Series is different (as are the playoffs). You don't pace your best pitchers. You should almost manage your bullpen backwards. Use the best guys first, and ride them as far as you can.
   25. Textbook Editor  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:13 PM (#3373446)
snapper, I do think Hamels can do once through the lineup, but I'm leery of him coming in without a "clean slate," if you will--that's why I'd start him. Also, because if lightening strikes and he mows them down for 4-6 IP, then you can go to Lee to maybe even close it out and avoid Lidge completely.

Let's just say that Lidge pitching with a 1-run lead in the bottom of the 9th in a Game 7 in Yankee Stadium would cause heart failure throughout Philadelphia. Lives are at stake! and I'm only 75% joking...
   26. ColonelTom  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:21 PM (#3373447)
My gut reaction was that the Phils should start Lee on short rest, but that means they have to start Blanton in Game 5 or Pedro on short rest; given those two options, starting Blanton in game 5 has to be the call. The only advantage to starting ales in Game 4 is so that you can start him again on short rest in Game 7, which probably means he won't go deep and Hamels ends up in the game anyway in relief, rather than Hamels starting and Lee in the pen on 2 days' rest. Charlie has to go with Blanton tonight and hope for the best.
   27. TVerik and his cavalcade of whimsy  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3373448)
Also, if today's game is "must win", then if the Phils lose, tomorrow becomes "MUST WIN". I'd rather start Blanton in the lowercase day and Lee tomorrow.
   28. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:26 PM (#3373449)
Also, if today's game is "must win", then if the Phils lose, tomorrow becomes "MUST WIN". I'd rather start Blanton in the lowercase day and Lee tomorrow.

So you consider Blanton today as the less bad option in a situation in which the Phillies lack really good choices? I can see that.
   29. sunnyday2  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:43 PM (#3373451)
if lightening strikes


That's the plan.
   30. NYCTigersfan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 03:48 PM (#3373454)
My gut reaction was that the Phils should start Lee on short rest, but that means they have to start Blanton in Game 5 or Pedro on short rest; given those two options, starting Blanton in game 5 has to be the call.

Right. Assuming Pedro throws game 6, and Blanton will throw one game on regular rest either way, it comes down to a choice between two scenarios for the other two games:

1. Lee on short rest + Lee on short rest
2. Lee on regular rest + Hamels on regular rest

Which game a given guy throws in general doesn't matter, except, as ColonelTom noted, to the extent throwing someone earlier impacts you using them in another game. E.g., if starting Lee in game 4 rather than game 5 wouldn't in any way affect his using him in game 7, then he should obviously throw game 5.
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3373460)
Lee would then be available in relief for games 6 and 7, if they happen.

EDIT: basically, my feeling is that these decisions are based on the individual pitchers. If Girardi thinks his guys can all throw well on three days rest, it makes sense. If Manuel thinks his pitchers aren't set to do that, it makes sense. It's not really a generalizable problem - the individual differences between pitchers, their respective abilities to handle short rest, are much larger than the differences in the whole population of pitchers on average pitching on short or full rest.
   32. Gaelan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 04:34 PM (#3373463)
This is just silly. Baseball is a series of events largely caused by randomness.


I enjoy the juxtaposition of these two sentences.
   33. Matt Clement of Alexandria  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 04:45 PM (#3373467)
I enjoy the juxtaposition of these two sentences.
A few broadly accepted but false philosophical beliefs from the origins of sabermetrics still haunt our discussions. The notion that events which are broadly unpredictable or not predictable based on various available tools are a function of luck or random chance is probably the biggest one.

NYCT's evaluation of the situation I broadly agree with - baseball is not predictable to anywhere near the level articulated in sunnyday's post, but his language to describe that position I strongly disagree with.
   34. NYCTigersfan  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 05:13 PM (#3373468)
This is just silly. Baseball is a series of events largely caused by randomness.
I enjoy the juxtaposition of these two sentences.

Yeah, that was terrible wording by me.

A few broadly accepted but false philosophical beliefs from the origins of sabermetrics still haunt our discussions. The notion that events which are broadly unpredictable or not predictable based on various available tools are a function of luck or random chance is probably the biggest one.

Right, I shouldn't have used "randomness" because it's not faithful to the true meaning of the word, which implies no correlation between events and/or a lack of control. Should've just gone with "unpredictable."

The point is that this is a game where a good hitter succeeds about 5-10% more often than a bad one, a good pitcher gives up two fewer runs per game than a bad one, and great teams win about 10% more often than average ones. We've all seen enough crazy things happen in baseball, let alone in other pro sports, that the Phillies winning shouldn't shock anyone.
   35. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: November 01, 2009 at 05:15 PM (#3373469)
Charlie Manuel has done a pretty darn good job during his tenure. I think folks should consider that
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