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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, November 01, 2009Hoffman: Phils need a new planOr a new drug...as Hoffman supplies some cognitive shifting.
Repoz
Posted: November 01, 2009 at 10:16 AM | 35 comment(s)
Related News: General, NY Yankees, Philadelphia |
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Didn't he pitch the seventh last night?
I picked the Phillies in 7 but given the game 3 and 4 pitching match-ups, the Phillies really needed a sweep in NY and that wouldn't be something you would have predicted before game 1 either. I guess that, as an AL fan, I didn't realize just how badly awry Hamels has gone.
So let's say it's CC and the Yankees tonight. Then let's see....
Game 5--Down 3-1, Lee beats Burnett. Plausible.
Game 6--Down 3-2 and back in Yankee Stadium, Pedro beats Pettitte. Could happen but it's not 50-50.
Game 7--Even at 3-3, obviously, Hamels beats CC? No way.
So the Phillies either needed to sweep 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to sweep 6 and 7 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to win tonight. Better win tonight. Better have a reliever warming up on the opening pitch.
Or, on the other hand, maybe a panic move is what's called for.
It's an absolute must-win game for the Phils, and I don't like the odds when you're starting Blanton against Sabathia. There will be plenty of time to rest in the offseason.
There's a good chance Sabathia only needs to be pretty good for the Yankees to win tonight. Blanton is a decent pitcher, but the Yankees can really hit. Crazier things have happened and crazier things will continue to happen, but expecting Joe Blanton to shut the Yankees down seems a bit of a stretch.
Yup, it's time to panic.
So are you saying the Phillies win 8-7 or lose 8-7?
Oh, and I think it's like this: If the Phillies somehow beat Sabathia tonight, they will win this series. If they lose, they will probably force a game 6 by winning Game 5, but will be unable to win both Game 6 and 7.
They were getting very good swings off of him in game 1 also. The score did not reflect the quality of their looks at CC. They weren't being fooled.
No it's not. The Yankees would still need to win another game.
There will be plenty of time to rest in the offseason.
It's not just for "rest." Pitchers generally perform worse when throwing on short rest in the playoffs. And increase chances of injury. And not only that, you'd be starting him twice in a row on short rest, not just tonight. Unless you're only going to throw him twice in the series, in which case there's no reason not to make it game 5 rather than game 4.
Game 5--Down 3-1, Lee beats Burnett. Plausible.
Game 6--Down 3-2 and back in Yankee Stadium, Pedro beats Pettitte. Could happen but it's not 50-50.
Game 7--Even at 3-3, obviously, Hamels beats CC? No way.
So the Phillies either needed to sweep 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to sweep 6 and 7 at Yankee Stadium, or they need to win tonight. Better win tonight. Better have a reliever warming up on the opening pitch.
This is just silly. Baseball is a series of events largely caused by randomness. The best team will beat a good team slightly more than half the time. This hyperbolizing of the predictability of the game is something usually reserved for the MSM and used just to give people something to talk about.
Randomness does not imply that the result can't be influenced by making correct decisions, and choice of the starting pitcher is important as hell.
According to the line, the Yankees has a 64% chance to win tonight. That's not just slightly more than half, it's a very bad home line for the Phillies. The gamblers don't seem to have much confidence in Blanton.
Yes, but that statement doesn't support the idea that Hamels has no chance of beating CC on short rest.
The gamblers don't seem to have much confidence in Blanton.
Gamblers aren't necessarily a good prediction tool.
I think the writer is referring to Happ not making it to the 7th in his last 5 starts of the regular season.
Gamblers aren't necessarily a good prediction tool.
In Game 1 the Yanks were 168-183 favorites. Anyone betting $100 on Lee would have made $168. The Yankees are nearly always an overlay because of their huge national fan base and the relatively clueless nature of the casual bettor.
What should give Phillies fans hope is not just that Sabbathia was beaten already, but that he has to pitch 2 times in the next 4 days, and that while sure, they've done it before and are rested, etc., Pettite and Burnett have to both pitch on 3 days' rest as well. It's not that they can't, or won't pitch well in each case, but starting tonight the Phillies need to work counts and drive up pitch counts. I can certainly see a path to a WC for the Phillies, even if they lose tonight. I think Charlie has enough nerve to start Hamels in Game 7, but I also think he might pull him after 3 IP and go to Lee and tell him to give him as many outs as possible before going to the pen, and it's not unreasonable that Lee could have 3-4 IP in him for a Game 7, even on 2 days' rest.
And if the Phillies win tonight, well, then I really like their chances, since I certainly could see them going back to the Bronx up 3-2.
Well yeah. That's my point. And if they lose tonight, not so much.
As to Biff's #7, who said or implied that CC will pitch a "gem?" The point is he may not have to. The point is What Blanton's gonna do. The point is that the Phillies' odds overall are not great right now down 2-1 and with an unfavorable pitching matchup. Of course the Phillies could beat the piss out of CC tonight. But how many runs are they going to need?
If Lee can give you 3-4 IP in game 7, why wouldn't you make it the first 3-4?
The World Series is different (as are the playoffs). You don't pace your best pitchers. You should almost manage your bullpen backwards. Use the best guys first, and ride them as far as you can.
Let's just say that Lidge pitching with a 1-run lead in the bottom of the 9th in a Game 7 in Yankee Stadium would cause heart failure throughout Philadelphia. Lives are at stake! and I'm only 75% joking...
So you consider Blanton today as the less bad option in a situation in which the Phillies lack really good choices? I can see that.
That's the plan.
Right. Assuming Pedro throws game 6, and Blanton will throw one game on regular rest either way, it comes down to a choice between two scenarios for the other two games:
1. Lee on short rest + Lee on short rest
2. Lee on regular rest + Hamels on regular rest
Which game a given guy throws in general doesn't matter, except, as ColonelTom noted, to the extent throwing someone earlier impacts you using them in another game. E.g., if starting Lee in game 4 rather than game 5 wouldn't in any way affect his using him in game 7, then he should obviously throw game 5.
EDIT: basically, my feeling is that these decisions are based on the individual pitchers. If Girardi thinks his guys can all throw well on three days rest, it makes sense. If Manuel thinks his pitchers aren't set to do that, it makes sense. It's not really a generalizable problem - the individual differences between pitchers, their respective abilities to handle short rest, are much larger than the differences in the whole population of pitchers on average pitching on short or full rest.
I enjoy the juxtaposition of these two sentences.
NYCT's evaluation of the situation I broadly agree with - baseball is not predictable to anywhere near the level articulated in sunnyday's post, but his language to describe that position I strongly disagree with.
I enjoy the juxtaposition of these two sentences.
Yeah, that was terrible wording by me.
A few broadly accepted but false philosophical beliefs from the origins of sabermetrics still haunt our discussions. The notion that events which are broadly unpredictable or not predictable based on various available tools are a function of luck or random chance is probably the biggest one.
Right, I shouldn't have used "randomness" because it's not faithful to the true meaning of the word, which implies no correlation between events and/or a lack of control. Should've just gone with "unpredictable."
The point is that this is a game where a good hitter succeeds about 5-10% more often than a bad one, a good pitcher gives up two fewer runs per game than a bad one, and great teams win about 10% more often than average ones. We've all seen enough crazy things happen in baseball, let alone in other pro sports, that the Phillies winning shouldn't shock anyone.
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