They sure could use some more hitting, though. A lot has to go right on the Harden/N. Feliz/Holland/C.Lewis front for this to be a playoff team, but it's not impossible. At least two of those four need to break through to all-star status this year, and stay healthy doing it. Maybe Chris Davis made adjustments in the second half, and is ready to hit 30+ homers with a 330 obp. Maybe Andrus continues his studly defense, and develops to a nice #2 hitter as well. I bet Kinsler rebounds, and Cruz & Young maintain their current levels. Hamilton & Vlad are big question marks too. It's such a volatile collection of talent; as a Mariners fan, this is the West squad that most scares me.

It's such a volatile collection of talent

Pretty much. This is a team that could win or lose 95 games depending on how things break, and neither would surprise me in the least. A lot of high variance talent on the Rangers.

The Colby Lewis situation is fascinating to me.

Looking at the numbers without the benefit of knowing how to regress/blend them it's interesting to see that Lewis's apparently world-changing stats from Japan are really quite similar to his AAA stats from 2008:

2008, Sacramento: 1.88 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9 in 95 IP as a starter
2009, Hiroshima: 2.68 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 7.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 178 IP as a starter

This looks like the exact same guy, right? Er, I guess we know it's the same guy... I guess I just mean that I look at those lines and it doesn't seem to me that the true talent level for this player has really changed at all between those two seasons.

And yet PECOTA takes a look at the evidence and is betting that he'll step foot on shore and be one of the best starters in the league. Sure there are stories about him "adding new pitches", but isn't that the same kind of stuff we'll be hearing about hundreds of pitchers across all of baseball in the next two months? And won't most of them actually pitch at around the same talent level they always have?

It's going to be really interesting to see what happens with him. But honestly, if he does succeed I still won't be convinced on the narrative that he was reborn in Japan. I actually think it will just be a good indication that he should have been given more of a shot in the first place.

And yet PECOTA takes a look at the evidence and is betting that he'll step foot on shore and be one of the best starters in the league.

But a big part of the reason for this is that he's now done this for 2 seasons (or 270 IP) and those two seasons are the most heavily-weighted. It's not that PECOTA is saying that he was a different guy in 2009 than he was in 2008, it's more that PECOTA was saying it didn't believe he was a new guy in 2008 until it saw him do it again in 2009.

Sure there are stories about him "adding new pitches", but isn't that the same kind of stuff we'll be hearing about hundreds of pitchers across all of baseball in the next two months? And won't most of them actually pitch at around the same talent level they always have?

The difference is that Lewis, in addition to adding new pitches, is also in the best shape of his life.

It also turns out I was looking at an incomplete set of data. CL was in Japan for 2 years and the baseball cube only had the 2008 season. So those Sacramento stats are 2007 and there's also a whole set of 2009 data from Japan that looks like the 2008 set (which I have mis-labled as 2009).

I'm still interested to see how accurate the translation is, though.

"Hope springs eternal"
What's the over/under for the number of times we read that phase over the next 3 months?