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It's approximately 3/15, according to rotoworld.
Two years ago, the going rate for a 100-ish OPS+ corner OF with good defense was 3/$15M (Juan Encarncion, Jaque Jones).
I think it's fair to think that an 85-ish OPS+ 2B with good defense might be worth the same. Ignoring H/A splits, Kaz hit 288 / 342 / 405 last year; the league average NL 2B hit 272 / 341 / 418.
Not a world beater, and I'd have preferred a 2/$10M contract, but it's not terrible.
The fact that Houston had an in-house solution makes this deal must worse.
Once again, Bruce Miles tells it like it is.
What a mind-numbingly bad deal that would be for the Cubs
Nobody knew the first time aroudn he woudln't turn out. The secodn time though? Ha
In that crappy division, anything can happen.
There is hope.
1 Bourn
2 Matsui
3 Berkman
4 Lee
5 Pence
6 Wigginton
it gets real sucky here ... but still ..
7 Everett
8 Ausmus
its not that horrible.
and I realize this is a Mets heavy board, so Matsui will never get a fair shake. But when healthy he is not a bad #2
I am really excited to see what Towles can do in that ballpark.
and didn't they just sign Blum to be the backup?
In the 2003 offseason, I would have taken the over.
Unless he completely flops in Houston (which is quite possible), he won't be anywhere close to the worst player ever to make that kind of scratch in MLB.
Bourn
Matsui
Pence
Lee
Berkman
Wigginton ..
my bad.
at worst, they have Burke as a backup.
That does look like pretty good D up the middle though.
Well, you could say that for the last 5 years. I guess here familiarity breeds contempt.
As bad as Everett is with the bat, I think you have to have his glove in the lineup. He's just that good at D.
Really? Was he healthy this year? Because this year, he posted an 87 OPS+. This year, away from home, he hit .249/.304/.333.
I think an average 2B is probably worth 3-15. I don't see Matsui there.
Are his defensive numbers good? Because he was godawful at 2B with the Mets. Always horrible.
And if you're counting on him to be healthy... well, he wasn't consistently healthy for years, and now he's a middle infielder in his thirties.
I have nothing against Matsui. I never booed him. He's a good guy in interviews. I rooted for him in the World Series, and wore my Matsui Mets shirt to the gym this week.
But this is not a good use of rsources. Chris Woodward is a better bet a 2B for a fraction of the cost. And so is Chris Burke, who the Astros already employ.
Bourn got on base at a .348 and .356 clip in AA and AAA (ages 22 and 23)
That translates to about .310 in the majors, it's not unheard of a guy his age improving though, but the smart money has both Bourn and Kazmat getting on base at a below average clip.
I don't care how fast they are, starting your lineup with two guys who make outs at an above average rate is a bad thing.
I guess it depends how much of a park adjustment that you believe that Matsui should be subject. IE, should he be penalised extra for his horrible away numbers, or should just a standard adjustment be done?
Baseball Prospectus had him at -0.5 runs above position. For comparison, Castillo was at 0.
Defensively, RZR: +6, ZR: +15.
since Burke is so great, he will make a nice insurance policy for both questionable moves .. .. right?
Burke
G 359
AB 1020
H 254
2B 61
3B 5
HR 20
SB 31
CS 10
BB 80
SO 194
BA 0.249
OBP 0.319
SLG * 0.377
OPS+ 80
Matsui
G 375
AB 1380
H 376
2B 77
3B 15
HR 17
SB 62
CS 9
BB 104
SO 255
BA 0.272
OBP 0.325
SLG * 0.387
OPS+ 82
I was serious- when did this happen? When did the numbers change?
He was HORRIBLE with the Mets. Because he didn't have contacts. Or something.
My friend's theory, and I still think it makes a lot of sense, is that the Mets signed a person named Kazuo Matsui to a contract- but not the guy who everyone loved in Japan.
WHEN DID THE REAL KAZUO MATSUI SHOW UP???
There was an article about his defensive problems a week or so back.
Something about Mets scouts being blind ..
I'll see if I can dig it up .. :)
Everett's a tough one to pin down. Some of the defensive systems rate him with Tulowitzki and some of them have him average-ish.
I guess it depends how much of a park adjustment that you believe that Matsui should be subject. IE, should he be penalised extra for his horrible away numbers, or should just a standard adjustment be done?
MGL believes there is a Coors field hangover effect for Rockies (they hit comparably worse on the road than you would expect possibly becuase their home parks messes with their approach). From what he's said, I believe he considers a straight park adjustment to underrate performance in Colorado. This may have changed with the humidor, I don't know.
I will say that I don't put much stock in taking the player's road splits and anointing that to be the true talent level.
Well, Burke's done now. They've ruined him. They waited way too long to bring him up, then when they did they never gave him playing time, and then they switched his position a few times. Their "development" system failed Burke big time, and because of that, they're going to vastly overpay Matsui to get roughly the same player.
You look at signing Ausmus, Lee, and how they handled Burke (and other prospects), and it's amazingly clear why they suck. Then you add in that they actually think hiring Ed Wade is going to help. I'm sorry, Astro fans.
I agree with this. However, I put even less stock in taking a player's Coors Field performance and anointing that to be the true talent level.
Meeting somewhere in the middle, even, doesn't make the signing a good one.
Among other reasons, baseball players as a whole do better at home than on the road. For example, 52% of homers come at home, despite the bottom of the ninth not always taking place.
Heh, I watched him with the Mets too.
Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!
Tell that to Carlos Beltran.
Heh, I watched him with the Mets too.
So did it change as he boarded the plane for Colorado? Has anyone explained this? Or asked him? I was going to this April, when Colorado came to town... but he was injured.
If you use a straight up adjustment, BPro had him at -0.5 runs above position. Either there's something wrong with their numbers, or his defense is below average / horrible. If neither is the case, in 2007 he was average.
<ugh: typos>
I don't remember Matsui being so bad at second base with the Mets, at least by 06. SS was another story, but I remember him playing a pretty good 2B. He didn't have enough games to qualify, but he would have ranked second in the NL in ZR in 06 at 2B. He didn't have enough games to qualify this year either, but he would have ranked second if he did. He would have ranked closer to the bottom in 05, but I seem to remember, and the stats bear this out, that he improved at the position as time went along.
sorry can't find it.
it was an interview piece on Matsui, and it discussed all of his struggles to American baseball, most notably his defense. It basically said the Mets had to teach him how to play defense all over again.
I am sure somebody else around here read it.
EDIT: I swear I wrote that before I saw the Miles link.
Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!
Getting out of RFK and with Nook Logan out of center? Oh, you'll be proven plenty wrong!
(just don't ask me about the pitching. PLEASE!)
And he was also one of the NL's most valuable basestealers.
Here's Matsui's RCAA (per 150 games) the last three years:
05: -25
06: -20
07: -7
(That doesn't include his time in the minors in '06, during which he was pretty bad, but it wasn't that many PAs.) A Marcel projection puts him at -11 for 2008. The average 2B is around -6 on offense, which would give him an RCAP of -5. And AROM's defensive projections have him at +6 at 2B, which would give him an overall projection of +1. His home/road splits are rather ugly, but not significantly more so than the other Rockies. He does seem to be pretty injury-prone, which hurts his value, but calling him an average 2B sounds pretty reasonable.
Yeah, keep telling yourself that. Houston's Ausmus-worship defies all explanation, and has for years.
This is a lot of mixing of projection systems to find a way to add up Matsui into an average 2B. Forgive me, I'm not there. I see a guy who is a good bet to be terrible offensively, and if his defense has improved, then he'll be a good defensive 2B who is terrible offensively. And I'm not sold on the defense.
It's two projection systems. One for offense, one for defense. It's not alchemy.
Prove me wrong Washington Nationals!
Getting out of RFK and with Nook Logan out of center? Oh, you'll be proven plenty wrong!
I forgot they're changing stadiums. So actually that would prove me right - Houston will be worst. Pittsburgh is not completely out of the running though.
It's two projection systems, minimizing the Coors effect and giving him credit for the reverse-Coors effect.
They reportedly just added Lastings Milledge, so that's more offense.
seriously.
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