Not to say that the character of a club couldn't help in certain situations, but the problem is if and when Wade chooses a guy with an unquantifiable "character" advantage and a production deficit over a guy who produces better but is suspected to have worse character. Maybe it could work out once in a while, but the successes occur out of happenstance, not design.

Maybe this is the sort of thing you shouldn't judge after 35 games.

Especially when the man has the history he does.

It looks like the right move. But what's that smell?

The Astros have outscored the opposition anyway, which means one of two things. Either they're rabbit's-foot-stacked-on-a-shamrock lucky or they're doing a lot of other things right.

The Astros have outscored the opposition anyway, which means one of two things. Either they're rabbit's-foot-stacked-on-a-shamrock lucky or I'd have to come up with a real article to write before the deadline instead of this nonsense

Hmm....which of these is most likely to change over the course of a season

A) a team's OBP after 1400 PA
B) a team's SLG after 1400 PA
C) a team's BA with RISP in 370 PA (especially when so far out of whack with the team's overall numbers)

Don't the stat this guy uses demonstrate that the Astros are unlikely to keep winning?

Hiring Wade is the right move because he's making Lance Berkman hit .400 and lead the league in HR. Why can't you people see that?

Hiring Wade is the right move because he's making Lance Berkman hit .400 and lead the league in HR. Why can't you people see that?

"Hey you, Berkman, hit a home run."

"Ok, GM."

Excellent strategy, sir.

Leading the league in steals has something to do with it.

Just wait until the bullpen starts to falter. Then all of your prospects will be traded away for the likes of David Weathers, Armando Benitez, and Kyle Farnsworth because "those guys are proven veterans"

Astros don't have prospects.

Leading the league in steals has something to do with it.

Michael Bourn's 17 steals do make his .567 OPS look a little better.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it unusual to have more steals than runs scored? Bourn has 16 runs scored right now.

And 6 RBI, in 145 PA.

steve campbell is the FOOTBALL writer and really why he even has an article on baseball i don't know.

as for his little pimping of smith/wade

it was made public during the GM search that the GM would have to "work with" smith and ed wade was the only candidate who agreed to this.

and from the article:

"Tal Smith heard the whispers about cronyism, the murmurs about a good-old-boy network headquartered at Minute Maid Park. His blood boiled. He is the Astros president of baseball operations, a position of trust that gives him the ear of owner Drayton McLane. Smith was the owner's right-hand man in the general manager's search that put Ed Wade in the hot seat."

- if tal don't want his blood to boil, then he shouldn't make it a requirement for the job that the new GM work under him

For more than a half century, Smith has been a baseball man. He finds it more than a little insulting that anybody would suspect him of turning the GM position into a welfare program for wayward old friends. What's the point of having experience and connections and not using them?

- amusement
- contempt
seem to me this has been the justification of the ol boy network and keeping out the, um, undesireables. like not your buds

Really, the criticism of Wade's moves was a lot like the criticism of the Carlos Lee signing a year before. It wasn't that it wouldn't make the team better in the short term, but it wouldn't make enough difference for the team to win, and it would really hurt the team down the road. Carlos Lee still looks like a "good move," based solely on the 1 1/4 years he's been with the team, but I still think they're going to regret the move when they have no championships in the 2-4 productive years of his deal, and they're stuck with him in the last two. In the same way, they're going to regret that they gutted what was left of the farm system for Tejada and Valverde and signed Matsui to a long-term deal down the road, when these guys are no longer with the club and/or are ineffective.

Really, the criticism of Wade's moves was a lot like the criticism of the Carlos Lee signing a year before. It wasn't that it wouldn't make the team better in the short term, but it wouldn't make enough difference for the team to win, and it would really hurt the team down the road. Carlos Lee still looks like a "good move," based solely on the 1 1/4 years he's been with the team, but I still think they're going to regret the move when they have no championships in the 2-4 productive years of his deal, and they're stuck with him in the last two. In the same way, they're going to regret that they gutted what was left of the farm system for Tejada and Valverde and signed Matsui to a long-term deal down the road, when these guys are no longer with the club and/or are ineffective.

Good post. The Astros remind me of the Chiefs in the 90s. Some really great teams that never quite got that close to a championship (at least the Astros made the WS), mixed in with some mediocre teams, but never any really awful teams. Both kept bringing on good veteran players, while sacrificing youth, thinking they were really close to reaching a championship, when in fact, they were still far away. Both brought in cronies and friends of management to run the team, despite shallow resumes. And the Chiefs finally bottomed out last year, going 4-12. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Astros do something like that this year or next.

suff

problem is that don't nobody care about down the road. everyone figures that something can be done then.

but you know only too well that drayton wants to win every year and just won't agree to any kind of rebuilding or restocking of the farm by trading off expensive vets.

and sure looks to me like the fans agree with drayton and remember that these fans are the ones who insisted that the #8 hitter, adam everett, is responsible for the team not winning and therefore he had to be goten rid of because his glove didn't matter. every time i point out all the hits/runs that clank lee allows all i hear is - like so what? he hits 300.

and besides, who needs more than 40 games to judge a season?

Hmm....which of these is most likely to change over the course of a season

A) a team's OBP after 1400 PA
B) a team's SLG after 1400 PA
C) a team's BA with RISP in 370 PA (especially when so far out of whack with the team's overall numbers)

Don't the stat this guy uses demonstrate that the Astros are unlikely to keep winning?

The guy references BA W Runners On Base in his article, , not BA w/ RISP, and that is a somewhat important distinction.
There have been 624 PA's with runners on base, and they are hitting .299 with men on as of this morning.

If you look at the career numbers of Tejada, Lee, Berkman and also Pence, who of course has far fewer PA's, they all have somewhat better BA with Men on and W/RISP for their careers. So there is something to this. Not to the degree the writer is stating of course, and I'm NOT saying they are going to maintain such high team averages W/ Men on, or W/ RISP. Sooner or later their overall numbers and OBP will have to improve if they are going to continue to score runs at the current pace. But I wouldn't completely dismiss the notion that they have assembled a core group in their lineup that hits better than their overall numbers with men on. It's not just a knack. It's a skill that these guys possess. Thats a tough middle of the order. If they had a couple more guys with better OBP's filling in the top and bottom of the lineup, Houston would be scary good.

Don't shoot me guys. I know the writer is overstating the "character case"....I just don't think we should ignore the good work that the core guys in their lineup have done throughout their careers with men on base. It's significant. And it's not a fluke that they are doing well now.

Of course, Byrnes' XBA via Shandler this year is .291.

Yeah, I'm really holding my breath for three straight MVP seasons from Eric Byrnes.

Don't the stat this guy uses demonstrate that the Astros are unlikely to keep winning?

Yes, but he doesn't know that, GMs and managers always talk about ,"we have to hit better with men on" as if it's a skill that's totally divorced from the players' overall hitting ability.
If you believe BPro, Wade was hired because he was the candidate who most shamelessly blew smoke up the owner's posterior during his interview.

All this fast start is going to do is convince Wade and the owner that Wade was right. When (not if) this team collapses, that collapse is going to be seen as the result of bad luck.

If you believe BPro, Wade was hired because he was the candidate who most shamelessly blew smoke up the owner's posterior during his interview.

- the chronicle's own baseball beat writers stated this QUITE clearly.

and it was clear from the getgo that ed wade was INSTRUCTED to remove most of last year's players from the roster and trade whatever minor leaguers he needed to to get players, especially tejada. it wasn't about the payroll, it was about making the fans happy and the fans wanted bout everybody gone. (amusing note - a WHOLE lot of fans wanted berkman gone as well because they didn't like the fact that he REFUSES to give reporters bull durham quotes and because they insist that since he has fat cheeks, he must therefore be a fat man and a lazy slob)

i don't hold the complete absence of prospects in the upper majors against him, as a lot of other people will. not that there were that many prospects to begin with

and yeah, i'm sure he's gonna do the middle reliever bit soon enough.

sigh

Yeah, the core hitters do hit better with men on over the careers. Last season, the Astros with men on had a tOPS+ of 110, with RISP a tOPS+ of 112. This season, with men on a tOPS+ of 125 with men on, and a tOPS+ of 114 with RISP. So, relative to their overall numbers, the difference this season is with men on.

Tejada in 2008, with men on has a tOPS+ of 142. Over his career, 112.

Pence in 2008, with men on, a tOPS+ of 124. In 2007, 107.

Lee, in 2008, with men on, a tOPS+ of 130, career 103.

Berkman, in 2008, with men on, a tOPS+ of 107, career 108.

Keep in mind, the Astros have done all that despite having a lower on-base percentage (.337 to .319) and slugging percentage (.455 to .421) than their opponents.

The Astros have given up just about the number of runs that one would expect given the opposition's OBA and SLG, FWIW, so it's all about the offense's overperformance.

-- MWE

Yeah, the core hitters do hit better with men on over the careers.

Looking at bb-ref splits for the past few years, the league as whole has a tOPS+ of about 105 with Men On and with RISP, so of the 4 you listed, only Tejada would really be an outlier(for the career numbers).

steve campbell is the FOOTBALL writer and really why he even has an article on baseball i don't know.

Steve Campbell has been writing baseball columns, and spent some time interviewing the Astros in spring training. I have been surprised that he seems to be more knowledgeable of baseball stats and sabermetric type principles than the "real" baseball writers like Justice, Ortiz, and McTaggert at the Houston Chronicle. I wouldn't say this is one of his better columns though.

The real truth about the Astros' offense probably lies somewhere between the extremes. No team's offense is as good as its stats during a hot streak. On the other hand, the Astros had abysmal OBP to start the season, when the team was slumping. Guys like Pence and Lee, started out the gate just killing the team's OBP. Both of those players are performing better and moving toward expectations. The team's OBP has been gradually increasing. I would expect the OBP to continue to increase. The biggest question is whether Bourn, Towles, and Wigginton will get out of their offensive funks. If they do, then the offense will still be awfully good, even when Berkman and Tejada cool off.

Must be my writing style.....seems like the nuance and shades of grey I see are often lost when I write.

they all have somewhat better BA with Men on and W/RISP for their careers. So there is something to this. Not to the degree the writer is stating of course, and I'm NOT saying they are going to maintain such high team averages W/ Men on, or W/ RISP.

If Ed Wade is the answer, it must be one damn strange ####### question, is all I can say.

Dear Mr Bissinger:

This article is why internet baseball commentary is not going to go away.

Signed,

Thoughtful baseball fans everywhere