What if we abolish the MLB amateur draft and make everyone a free agent to start their careers? Would the promise of a multi-million dollar contract right off the bat help MLB compete with the NBA and NFL for the country’s top athletes? I believe that it would.

Isn't baseball still the best way to make guaranteed money for a high school athlete?

Isn't baseball still the best way to make guaranteed money for a high school athlete?

How long do football players have to wait? Three years after high school?

I'm still not sure how the NFL and NBA get away with that.

If there were no draft, I'm sure it would encourage the development of more talent in the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

Amateur free agency existed before the 1960's and teams responded by having minor league teams down to D-ball. You'd see all kinds of baseball academies and developmental programs, also.

So Puerto Rican kids are saying "I can't sign a bloated initial contract to play baseball, only $1-6mm for the first round. Ugh. Screw it, I'll do something else."

Really?

The amateur draft keeps the professional teams out of the player development process. I mean why spend money developing a player just to see the Marlins draft him early in the first round.

It was a problem in MLS from the outset, and we remain well behind in player development in soccer because of the traditional model used by U.S. sports. The things that provide the best development for players are not necessarily the same things that win games in high school and college (and vice versa). It's probably true in soccer and almost certainly true in baseball (particularly when it comes to pitcher workloads).

1) I don't think it's good form to submit an article on your own site to BBTF, interesting though it may be, particularly because of the lede you use. You characterize your own writing as "interesting" and describe the impact of the draft as "severely hurt[ing]" Puerto Rican baseball without any qualification or reservation.

2) I think the hypothesis is reasonable and the theory behind it is sound, but I don't think there's enough evidence yet to conclude it's true. It seems like 1982-1988 was an unusually productive period for PR (compared with before and after). I would imagine that certain periods are more and less productive for other areas (like Japan, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, etc).

3) Based on a cursory glance at the data, I don't know that your hypothesis is true. Looking at the data from the Lahman database and from BBref, most players born in 1973 or later were drafted, whereas players born in 1971 and earlier were signed as amateur free agents. Players born in 1972 fall into both categories. If we throw out 1972 and compare the first five years after to the previous five years, 38 players were drafted and eventually made the majors from 1973 to 1977, while 30 players were signed between 1967 and 1971.

Not to steer this too far away from baseball, but I think a giant problem with implementing a European-style academy system to develop young American soccer players is that the country is so huge. If you're a 14-year-old kid in, say, Grimsby, you can sign with one of the clubs in Sheffield and be playing an hour away from home. There aren't very many places in England, Italy, Germany, France, or Spain where you're more than an hour or two from a top-flight club.

If you're a 13-14 year old American with big-time potential and you're living in Florida, the closest MLS teams are in Houston and Washington, DC. I can't imagine parents would be really excited to send their eighth grader 850 miles away to be a soccer player.

Baseball would have the same issues, but not to the same degree, since there are more MLB teams in more places.

If you're a 13-14 year old American with big-time potential and you're living in Florida, the closest MLS teams are in Houston and Washington, DC. I can't imagine parents would be really excited to send their eighth grader 850 miles away to be a soccer player.

Baseball would have the same issues, but not to the same degree, since there are more MLB teams in more places.

But wouldn't the teams set up near academies where the talent is?

I can't imagine parents would be really excited to send their eighth grader 850 miles away to be a soccer player.

Ehn...I don't know about that. People send their kids--younger than that, natch--to tennis camps. I can't imagine soccer would be any different if the parents were convinced there was money in it. (Or glory or whatever else motivates those kinds of crazy people.)

If you're a 13-14 year old American with big-time potential and you're living in Florida, the closest MLS teams are in Houston and Washington, DC. I can't imagine parents would be really excited to send their eighth grader 850 miles away to be a soccer player.

There are counterparts to this in individual sports already - figure skating, tennis, where big-name trainers basically house kids, right?

Also, isn't this similar to the way junior hockey works in Canada, which is geographically as large as the U.S. (although less so if you eliminate the sparsely populated northern parts, I suppose)?

In soccer, isn't the main issue that it's not necessarily in MLS's financial interest to run an academy, because if a player develops too well, he's liable to go to Europe rather than play in MLS?

In soccer, isn't the main issue that it's not necessarily in MLS's financial interest to run an academy, because if a player develops too well, he's liable to go to Europe rather than play in MLS?

No, not at all. Players can't play outside their home country until their 18th birthday, so if MLS teams set up academies to train players from, say, ages 13-17, they could make a killing selling those players overseas. They did this with Freddy Adu and Bobby Convey. At one point, Convey was (at age 16) living with the family of Kevin Payne, the DC United president.

In fact, that's precisely the sort of thing that could make MLS ridiculously profitable - selling talent overseas. The problem with selling young players is that you can't do it too often...if fans think their team exists only to flip star players to European teams, there's a danger that they'll become disillusioned with the whole thing. In a lot of ways, Columbus still hasn't really totally recovered from selling off Brian McBride.

Also, isn't this similar to the way junior hockey works in Canada, which is geographically as large as the U.S. (although less so if you eliminate the sparsely populated northern parts, I suppose)?

Yes, but there's also 60 CHL teams (and then there's Junior A underneath that). There's only 14 MLS teams.

Fast forward to 2008 and we see MLB is no longer the top sport in the country. Many people ask why the top athletes have basketball and football atop their favorite sports list and wonder what can be done to put baseball back on top.

Obviously the NBA and NFL got on top by forgoing a draft.

Obviously the NBA and NFL got on top by forgoing a draft.

Well, unlike college baseball, Division I college basketball and football is an end in and of itself. The NBA and NFL don't need development programs, because they've got a free, massive, nationwide, partially-taxpayer-subsidized, player development system in place as it is.

There's only 14 MLS teams.

Thankfully, this will rise to 16 by 2010.

It's worth noting that there are 11 USL-1 and 10 USL-2 teams as well. Of course, three of the USL teams are outside the country (two in Canada, one in Bermuda) and it's tough to really make a case that USL-2 is a viable developmental tool for promising young players. Most USL teams are on shoestring budgets, so it's not like they're in a position to go out, unearth talent, and make it worth the kids' while to blow off a potential college scholarship to play third division soccer for virtually nothing.

There's a 67-team developmental league which is essentially the American fourth division, but the players aren't paid and most of them are college players looking to play during their summer break. So it isn't any kind of alternative to the high school/college system already in place.

Thankfully, this will rise to 16 by 2010.

Yeah, but 16 is still a long ways from 30. And the USLs, like you say, aren't really viable developmental programs. The USLs and the PDL are sort of like the NBDL, but without players actually moving up.

I don't want to get too far afield with soccer, so I'll just say it's clear that amateur drafts disincentivize pro clubs getting involved in player development. For better or for worse.

Fans really aren't particular adept at recognizing quality without suitable benchmarks to go by. Even if the NFL develops far worse football players than they would under a different system, the players they do develop will be the best football players in the world anyway. So it makes little difference to the NFL. There's no external competition for players, and no easily noticeable benchmark that would tell fans the league is doing a poor job developing players.

We see a little more of it in play in baseball and basketball though. The more aggressive developmental systems in Europe (in basketball) and in the D.R. and Venezuela (in baseball) pretty clearly have paid dividends. The question is whether this really should be of any concern to the NBA or MLB. It's not like there is going to be no American players in either league, so even if American players may not be developing quite as efficiently as players from other countries, it may make little difference to the league.

And of course this is precisely where MLS' situation differs: because of external competition and benchmarks, the development of better domestic players is absolutely vital to the American soccer league. Where it is, at best, a curiosity to MLB and the NBA and a non-issue to the NFL.

Even if the USL leagues could dredge up more talent, a lot of parents wouldn't want to send their kids away simply because MLS has such low salaries. The minimum salary for a senior player is $33,000, developmental players will get under $20,000. Not a lot of people are going to have their kids give up a (likely partial) college scholarship for the possibility that in five or ten years he makes a secretary's wages. Hell, that's what college is for. Baseball clearly has an advantage here.

In 1997 the #2 pick in the MLS draft (Mike Fisher) went to medical school rather than play pro ball.

The point is that soccer has a lot of issues in the US that aren't really relevant to baseball, in terms of getting kids into development ball.

The minimum salary for a senior player is $33,000, developmental players will get under $20,000.

I think it's $12,500 for developmental players (BTW the salary cap in MLS is a joke).

In 1997 the #2 pick in the MLS draft (Mike Fisher) went to medical school rather than play pro ball.

Ty Harden retired after one season to work for a charity rather than play in LA. US soccer is getting better, but when we've got promising young players giving up their careers before they even start, we're still a ways away.

In 1997 the #2 pick in the MLS draft (Mike Fisher) went to medical school rather than play pro ball.

If he went into derm or orthopaedic surgery, that was probably a good idea.

Not a lot of people are going to have their kids give up a (likely partial) college scholarship for the possibility that in five or ten years he makes a secretary's wages.

But they don't necessarily have to give up that scholarship, and for the truly bright talents that emerge such that the league signs them before they go to college, these players often start at six figures anyway (and MLS has tuition reimbursement system for these players that a few players have used. Eddie Gaven and Brian West are a couple). The lowest paid players in the league, not coincidentally, tend to be the ones who have played all four years of college ball and have few options other than MLS. The four year college player also is becoming less and less prevalent on the U.S. National Team.

Plenty of former trainees at English clubs have gone on to get scholarships in the states, and the current system MLS is trying to get off the ground does not forfeit any trainees college eligibility. FIFA has made such a setup workable by not allowing players to sign professional contracts overseas before they are 18, which essentially gives MLS first crack up until then. It's a hard problem, but American sports simply do not have an equivalent to the worldwide uber-competitive player market in World Soccer. Teams like the Marlins and Royals have easy situations by comparison.

Ty Harden retired after one season to work for a charity rather than play in LA. US soccer is getting better, but when we've got promising young players giving up their careers before they even start, we're still a ways away.

My opinion is that when Ty Harden is considered a "promising young player," we're still a ways away.

It's not like losing Harden is like losing a Messi or Rooney. He was a four year college central defender who played for the second worst defense in the league as a rookie. The reason why Harden didn't make any money is because he is the prototypical replacement player. Are the Galaxy really substantially worse off this year with the similarly anonymous Sean Franklin? Harden didn't make any money because he could be and was adequately replaced by guys willing to play for the same or less amount. Landon Donovan makes a million dollars because he's a lot harder to replace. Eddie Gaven makes around $150,000 because he's somewhere in between. The key to making money as an American soccer player is to be good. Do that and you make money, whether from MLS or from somewhere else.

And just to finish a point. It's also worth noting that being picked second in the MLS draft, particularly in 1997, isn't exactly the sort of resume line it would be in other sports. Here's the first round that year:

1. Tahj Jenkins
2. Mike Fisher
3. Rob Jachym
4. Alberto Montoya
5. Brian Kelly
6. Temoc Suarez
7. Brian Johnson
8. Mike Mekelburg
9. Steve Jolley
10. Danny Care

Jolley was the only player who was worth much of anything (Suarez I suppose) and even he was merely a useful MLS defender. The subsuquent rounds didn't produce much else besides a decent midfielder in Ross Paule. The best player taken was the second to last one taken: goalkeeper Kevin Hartman. Hartman lingered on the fringes of the National Team for a bit, but his big claim to fame was as the Galaxy's starting keeper for their two titles.

The point being, Fisher didn't make the Olympic team the previous summer, and considering the talent around him in the draft, it's unlikely this was a future World Player of the Year candidate we lost. The American talent pool was very shallow and so there was no reason to pay these guys lots of money. The only ones who turned out to be any good, eventually made their money. The pool is a little deeper now, but a big part of the depth comes from guys forgoing four years of college and going pro straight out of high school, or after one or two years of college (merely to position themselves better for a pro contract).

The amateur draft keeps the professional teams out of the player development process. I mean why spend money developing a player just to see the Marlins draft him early in the first round.

The thing is, that there's not any more inherent baseball talent in Puerto Rico than there is anywhere else. It's just that with team academies existing, and the huge payoff, anyone with any talent is herded into baseball from the earliest possible age. Of course, the year-round playable weather helps with the amount of time that the kids can spend. So who cares whether we're missing out on the next great Puerto Rican star? We're finding the next great Venezualan star.

I mean, if you established a league in Siberia, built domed academies, and got every kid to play baseball in the academies, you'd have a swarm of Russians entering the league in about 10 years. Where's the outcry that we're missing the next great Russian star?

My opinion is that when Ty Harden is considered a "promising young player," we're still a ways away.

By MLS standards, not NT (not that our NT is anything to rave about).

Are the Galaxy really substantially worse off this year with the similarly anonymous Sean Franklin?

No, they suck because Lalas has put all his eggs in one basket, but that's another discussion.

It's probably true in soccer and almost certainly true in baseball (particularly when it comes to pitcher workloads).

It's definitely true in "soccer" because of pitch size. Competitive football for kids aged 11, 12, 13, etc is played on full-sized adult pitches despite the children being so much smaller and weaker than adults. So the emphasis is on athleticism (you need to be able to run a huge distance) and strength (you need to be able to kick the ball very far) as opposed to skill.

As for signing professional contracts overseas, I know for a fact you can do this aged 16. See e.g. Cesc Fabregas.

By MLS standards, not NT (not that our NT is anything to rave about).

My point is simply that paying American players more money isn't going to make them any better. When you can get a talent like Juan Toja to come here for a 100 grand, paying Ty Harden that kind of money seems wasteful. The world is filled with Ty Hardens.

If American players simply got better, the money is out there to be made (whether in MLS or abroad). The reason Fisher could make more money as a doctor than a soccer player was because he wasn't a good enough soccer player, not because MLS wouldn't pay him. None of the other hundred or so professional first divisions in the world would pay him either, why should MLS.

Look at Joe Lapira. After turning down whatever MLS' offer was, he finally landed at a newly promoted club in the second tier in Norway. I mean that's the level of offer even some of our better amateur talents can expect.

As for signing professional contracts overseas, I know for a fact you can do this aged 16. See e.g. Cesc Fabregas.

And it's not an American thing, because Landon Donovan did it too. Didn't work out too well for him though.

As for signing professional contracts overseas, I know for a fact you can do this aged 16. See e.g. Cesc Fabregas.

For those purposes, Fabregas is a member of the EU and by labor law is entitled to work in other EU countries. The only clear exception we've seen so far is Vela, and apparently shenanigans took place there (Vela is scheduled to obtain a Spanish passport soon which would clear his way to finally join Arsenal).

And it's not an American thing, because Landon Donovan did it too. Didn't work out too well for him though.

And Donovan (and John O'Brien before him) were prior to the rule being passed.

I don't want to get too far afield with soccer, so I'll just say it's clear that amateur drafts disincentivize pro clubs getting involved in player development. For better or for worse.

But should professional teams be getting into the lives of teenagers in the US? It's different in some place like the Dominican where most of the kids have virtually no opportunities other than baseball but here kids already have a lot on the plates already with school, many get jobs at 16, and they play sports in high school. It does happen some of course with stuff like tennis but is that really a good thing for the kid if they don't end up being good enough to go pro?

So you're saying that as per FIFA rules, you need to be 18 to sign a pro contract overseas? Has this been tested in any court? On the face of it, seems a blatant restraint of trade as per British law - of course a 16-year-old American would be extremely unlikely to be able to obtain a UK work permit to play football.

So you're saying that as per FIFA rules, you need to be 18 to sign a pro contract overseas? Has this been tested in any court?

Not that I'm aware of. The player can actually sign the contract, it just can't join the club (and the contract isn't official) until he turns 18. Preston Zimmerman from Washington signed with a Geramn club when he was 17, and spent the next 9 months or so alternating between the U.S. and Germany trying to get as much game action in as possible while he waited to turn 18.

Here's the pdf file, it's Section VI, pages 17 and 18:

FIFA Regulation on the Status and Transfer of Players

I'm unclear as to how Arsenal and Vela have skirted the rule, but one explanation I've heard was that technically Vela was still under contract to Guadalajara until Vela could legally join Arsenal.

Restraint of trade. Age discrimination. Possible race discrimination. It would be fascinating to see that go to court.

Vela went to Osasuna (on loan from Arsenal) aged 16. That means Osasuna held his footballing registration, which means FIFA must have provided international clearance. As for how Arsenal got around the rule - I imagine they threatened to take FIFA to court, and FIFA backed down. Much like Liverpool and Mascherano.

But should professional teams be getting into the lives of teenagers in the US?

Well why is it any worse than High School coaches getting involved. I think that's the argument. Is there really anything more unseemly about a professional sports team overseeing the playing career of a teenage player than an amateur club? I mean clearly the pro club has a bit more of a long term interest in the player, and just as clearly malicious treatment of those players who don't make the grade wouldn't be in the pro clubs interests either, particularly if the country had switched from the current setup.

Maybe it's not right, but Ronaldinho joined a pro club when he was 6 years old. The greatest players in World Soccer right now were being taught the game by professional clubs at very young ages. Whether players of that caliber can be produced under an American style system, I don't know. However the U.S. isn't in much of a position in soccer to claim a superiority of knowledge when it comes to player development.

Note on Vela: He went from Mexico to Spain. A couple of years ago the Spanish government passed laws giving much greater rights for people from the former Spanish colonies to work in Spain. Spain has had more than 4 million immigrants since 2000. It is quite possible that Vela, being a Mexican citizen, had the legal right to work in Spain. FIFA can't interfere with Spanish law.

So who cares whether we're missing out on the next great Puerto Rican star? We're finding the next great Venezualan star.

I mean, if you established a league in Siberia, built domed academies, and got every kid to play baseball in the academies, you'd have a swarm of Russians entering the league in about 10 years. Where's the outcry that we're missing the next great Russian star?

Ideally we would have great players coming on a regular basis from both Puerto Rico and Venezuela. There's no gaijin quota in MLB.

I don't agree with the Siberia angle, either. The thing is - we know Puerto Rico can produce baseball stars. We have no idea about Siberia. To draw a parallel from another sport - they've been playing basketball in Germany for much more than 10 years and how many great German NBA players are there? Nowitzki, Schrempf and - is there anyone else? Does Uwe Blab count?

My guess is the ability to pick up skills and be competitive at the highest levels in the world is probably easier to do in basketball than baseball. But that's just my opinion.

Jumping back up to the "would parents really want their 16 year olds moving 800 miles away for minor league ball", there are places like the IMG Academies where parents pay lots of money to send their kids to a sports campus in Florida, where there main goal is just to earn a D-I scholarship.

Ideally we would have great players coming on a regular basis from both Puerto Rico and Venezuela. There's no gaijin quota in MLB.

Yes, but if MLB teams have X dollars to spend on "foreign academies", then it's probably irrelevant as to where they spend it.

I don't agree with the Siberia angle, either. The thing is - we know Puerto Rico can produce baseball stars. We have no idea about Siberia.

I don't think that there's anything inherently more "baseball aptitude" about Puerto Rico that Siberia. It's just that every single boy who shows any talent at all is groomed to be an MLB player. You'd have to get that attitude in Siberia, but if you could do it, you'd see similar results.