BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: How sweep it feels!

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Saturday, October 06, 2007

How sweep it feels!

Open Letter:

Dear Nate Silver, you were wrong.

Yours,

The Arizona Diamondbacks

P.S. Livan Hernandez says “hi”.

P.P.S. The baby bears are who we thought they were!

1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:33 PM | 67 comment(s)
Related News: Arizona, Chi Cubs

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. 1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2564705)

Stephen Drew should be the NLCS MVP. His offensive contribution alone would be enough, but his glove at SS was excellent throughout the entire series. What a great playoff series for Drew, who had a miserable season. Hopefully he can carry his hot play into the NLCS.

2. Dag Nabbit Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2564708)

Stephen Drew should be the NLCS MVP.

First the NLCS has to begin before we award an MVP for next week's playoff series.

3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2564712)

Congratulations to the D'backs. Good luck in the next round$

4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2564713)

That sucked. Congrats to the DBacks.

I would have been attending my first playoff game ever tomorrow. I guess not.

5. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2564716)

I don't see how the Rockies don't stomp the bejesus out of the DBacks.

6. Justin Zeth, dog Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2564719)

This was the only series I correctly predicted, assuming the other teams that are up 2-0 finish the deal. Bad news, Diamondbacks fans: I'm taking Arizona to win the NLCS.

7. 1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2564720)

First the NLCS has to begin before we award an MVP for next week's playoff series.

Meh. Just wait. :)

Of course I meant the NLDS. But I can be excused for getting ahead of myself here, you know...

What a great series for the Dbacks.

By the way, Bryant and Keri, kudos for your gutsy calls.

The rest of the ESPN analysts, will you get the propellers off your heads and just watch a game?

8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2564722)

Walks:

I doubt Brandon Webb would agree......

9. Robert S. Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:57 PM (#2564727)

I don't see how the Rockies don't stomp the bejesus out of the DBacks.

Best of seven.

10. 1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:58 PM (#2564731)

I don't see how the Rockies don't stomp the bejesus out of the DBacks.

Shouldn't the Rockies get there first? And if they do, when was the last time stomping someone's bejesus counted for anything in a playoff game?

11. shoewizard Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2564732)

Series RBI Tally:

Doug Davis 1, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, 0

From AZ Central

The Wrigley Field crowd's frustration was evident. The stadium was bone-rattling loud during Mark DeRosa's at-bat with the bases loaded in the fifth inning. But the wind was taken out of the place when DeRosa bounced into a 6-4-3 double play to end the threat.

Two innings later, they began to boo after Soriano grounded out to extend his struggles in the series. They booed again after Derrek Lee grounded into a double play in the seventh. Ramirez, the Cubs' other big bopper, was booed when he grounded out in the eighth.

Collectively, the trio went 6 for 38 with no extra base hits, no RBIs and one run scored.

12. 1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:01 PM (#2564737)

Doug Davis 1, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, 0

Well, this should make Harveys happy :)

According to Silver's simulations, the probability of AZ sweeping was:

Diamondbacks Win in 3 7.0%

Those are still pretty good odds, no?

13. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:06 PM (#2564745)

I don't see how the Rockies don't stomp the bejesus out of the DBacks.

Arizona has a deeper bullpen, and they didn't have to dip into it very far to dispose of the Cubs. If the Rockies don't close the deal tonight, they will almost certainly have to dig into the bullpen tomorrow, with Redman likely to be on the hill.

-- MWE

14. Marmaduchscherer Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2564748)

But their Pythagorean record this series was only 2.63-0.37

15. shoewizard Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:10 PM (#2564750)

A friend of mine had an interesting theory. He said the best way to cool off the Rockies is for them to sweep, and then sit around for 5 days before they play again.

16. Brandon in MO (for America!) Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:15 PM (#2564759)

Slaco man..

Sweet Lou Always Chokes in October

(well, 23-24 is a choke for playoff purposes, especially if you can't take a 116 win team to the World Series)

(yeah, he won once in 1990, but since then.. nada)

Maybe that's why A-Rod 'chokes' in the postseason. Too much time around Piniella.

17. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2564779)

Congrats D-Backs and their fans. Tonight may have been the least fun I've had watching a baseball game since 2004. It's hard to believe based on this series that Stephen Drew didn't have a better season. He was killing the ball. They don't name an MVP for the Division Series round, do they? I recall a few years ago hearing about all the players with bonuses written into their contracts for winning an MVP award that didn't actually exist.

The NL Central's streak of putting a team in the World Series 3 straight years and the NLCS 4 straight has come to an end. The NL West's streak of 4 years without a playoff series win goes down with it.

18. Dag Nabbit Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:35 PM (#2564787)

Sweet Lou Always Chokes in October

(well, 23-24 is a choke for playoff purposes, especially if you can't take a 116 win team to the World Series)

(yeah, he won once in 1990, but since then.. nada)

Maybe that's why A-Rod 'chokes' in the postseason. Too much time around Piniella.

Interesting theory. Let's look into it.

1990 - as you mention, his team one. You neglected to mention that the opposing A's were heavily favored in the Series. And that it was a sweep.

1995 - Mariners fall down 2 games zip to the Yanks. Then comeback and win the final three. In the ALCS, they lose to a 100-44 Indians team

1997 - M's lose to the O's under Davey Johnson, who at 98-64 had the best record in the AL that year.

2000 - sweep the White Sox in the ALDS. Then lose to the Yanks in the ALCS. Yanks go on to win their third straight world series, and fourth in last fifth year.

2001 - M's win 116 in regular season, sneak by Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, but get beaten badly by the Yanks in the ALCS.

2007 - Cubs swept by D-backs.

Yea, I don't really see this as evidence that Piniella "always" chokes.

19. Brandon in MO (for America!) Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:41 PM (#2564794)

19. ntr Jay Mariotti Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:41 PM (#25647898)
Piniella just can't handle the pressure of the post season. DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH!

20. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2564798)

But the wind was taken out of the place when DeRosa bounced into a 6-4-3 double play to end the threat.

They should add that it was on a 3-1 count and he swung at a low pitch that was ball 4.

I basically stopped watching after that

21. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2564799)

Congratulations to the Diamond Backs and their fans. That's a really impressive and exciting young team that I would have really enjoyed watching if they weren't busy beating the crap out of my favorite team. Well, except for Augie Ojeda. WTF is up with Augie Ojeda!? I can't believe he's still in major-league baseball much less starting for a playoff team, much less actually contributing to a playoff team.

But, seriously, congratulations and best of luck the rest of the way.

22. RB in NYC (Now a Man with Options! Maybe!) Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:46 PM (#2564801)

2001 - M's win 116 in regular season, sneak by Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, but get beaten badly by the Yanks in the ALCS.

I don't agree Pinella "always" chokes either, but I do think it is worth pointing out that in 2001, after the Yankees won the first two at Safeco Lou "guaranteed" that the series would return to Seattle. As it turns out, the playoffs still haven't been back to Seattle.

23. Dag Nabbit Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:53 PM (#2564810)

I basically stopped watching after that

I flat out did stop watching. I came back for the bottom of the ninth.

after the Yankees won the first two at Safeco Lou "guaranteed" that the series would return to Seattle. As it turns out, the playoffs still haven't been back to Seattle.

Well he never said when, now did he. The playoffs will return.

Did he specify sport? The Seahawks have gone to the Super Bowl and the Sonics have had their moment.

24. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:55 PM (#2564813)

I flat out did stop watching. I came back for the bottom of the ninth.

I was too busy showing all my customers the footage of Manny's homer

25. Justin Zeth, dog Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:56 PM (#2564815)

Man, has that ball landed yet? Manny launched that thing into orbit.

26. Urban Faber Posted: October 06, 2007 at 10:56 PM (#2564816)

As it turns out, the playoffs still haven't been back to Seattle.

And the WS trophy hasn't been back to the Bronx--except in the Marlins' locker room. There are no winners here.

27. greenback06 Posted: October 06, 2007 at 11:07 PM (#2564831)

I don't see how the Rockies don't stomp the bejesus out of the DBacks.

Yeah, USA Today predicts the Rockies in three.

I can't believe anybody tries to forecast these damn things.

28. TerpNats Posted: October 06, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2564842)

4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 06, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2564713)

That sucked. Congrats to the DBacks.

I would have been attending my first playoff game ever tomorrow. I guess not.

I know how you feel. George Brett prevented me from attending game 4 of the 1980 ALCS, and I never saw a postseason game in person until game 1 of the '93 NLCS at the Vet.

Anyway, congrats to the D'backs, and many of us in D.C. are happy for Livan.

29. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: October 06, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2564907)

Great intro. Lets see what Nate Silver has to say tomorrow.

30. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 06, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2564925)

I know how you feel. George Brett prevented me from attending game 4 of the 1980 ALCS, and I never saw a postseason game in person until game 1 of the '93 NLCS at the Vet.

I guess in 2020 I'll get another chance. :(

31. 1k5v3L Posted: October 06, 2007 at 11:58 PM (#2564928)

Kiko, Augie wouldn't have been starting if Hudson were healthy, or Callaspo were healthy when Hudson got hurt. Because of Callaspo's hamstrings, Ojeda got the majority of starts in September, and he played well enough to deserve being the starter in the playoffs. Anyhow, thanks for the kind wishes, everyone.

32. 1k5v3L Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:08 AM (#2564946)

Great intro. Lets see what Nate Silver has to say tomorrow.

Well, Silver said something tonight.

Just by the look of it, it's a mixture of gibberish, sour grapes and unabashed admiration for Livan.

Through five innings 24 Cubs have come to the plate and 12 of them reached base via a hit, walk, HBP, or error. I’m still somewhat incredulous that Melvin didn’t even visit Hernandez on the mound, and as of right now there’s no action in the ‘Zona pen. Managers would do well to learn more about DIPS theory when managing their pitchers in-game

Hey Nate, I hope you didn't let DIPS hit your a$$ on the way out of the stadium.

33. Shibal Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:26 AM (#2564984)

Nate seems to be throwing all the 'bad luck' excuses out there...umpires, double plays, bad luck, Dips Theory.

Poor guy

34. Robert S. Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2565050)

Rockies win.

Suck it, TBS!

35. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:54 AM (#2565058)

And now the Phillies can piss off!

36. Dig!!! JMM Dig!!! Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:54 AM (#2565061)

Two Mountain Time Zone teams, thus guaranteeing a MT NL World Series representative.

Ah, I hear the glorious tones of the anguished screams of TBS and Fox execs....

37. CWS Keith Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:23 AM (#2565076)

Len Kasper said that, at the very least, he expected the series to go five. That's funny... Here I was thinking that the D'Backs were the team that won 90 games and the Cubs were the ones that struggled to take baseball's worst division. Guess I was wrong.

38. baseball chick Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2565078)

oh YESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

middle america ROOLZ!!!!!!!!

and now lets all be rooting for the indians which will really REALLY get even louder anguished skreeeeeeeeeemzzzzzzz from all the foxecs.

and this time effing mccarver/buck best learn to pronounce names of the players instead of butchering them like they done in the astros/whitesox series.

and congrats to the rox too. how kewl for todd helton FINALLY getting to the postseason

39. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:31 AM (#2565080)

Here I was thinking that the D'Backs were the team that won 90 games and the Cubs were the ones that struggled to take baseball's worst division. Guess I was wrong.

We were all focused on the better predictor: Run differential.

40. baseball chick Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:38 AM (#2565082)

well dan,

don't guess that run differential was real too good a predictor...

and happy 3rd birthday to your son - few weeks late if i remember rightly

41. Ryan S. Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2565085)

baseball chick has been drinkin' again

42. Red Juice Posted: October 07, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2565088)

An all NL West Division Series. This is just so awesome.
I hope the Indians hold on, and hopefully the Angels can climb back into it also... But three out of four taint bad.. :)

Go Dbacks!

43. Red Juice Posted: October 07, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2565089)

come to think of it, I don't care which team wins.

Either the Dbacks or the Rockies in the World Series .. That is just awesome.

oh and less I forget.

#### the Cubs.

What did they spend this offseason, 300 million? a 300 Million Dollar failure.
when do we get the Lovable Losers back, seriously.

44. Billy Wagner's unspoken thoughts Posted: October 07, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2565103)

I'm just completely floored by the Rocks, I've caught many a Sky Sox game the last couple years and was never overly impressed with anyone that came through there.

But with the DBacks and Rocks making it, maybe this will serve as a wakeup call to the other franchises to PLAY YOUR KIDS. Get the best talent in your org at the ML level and let them play!

45. Red Juice Posted: October 07, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2565104)

I remember reading this piece a few days ago and thinking, the NL West never gets any love.
The top three teams in the NL this year were in the West.
Top 3.

Even this evening, everybody is all up in arms because the lovable losers, well, lost.
Nobody is talking about how great these two other teams are playing.

Colorado is now what 18-1?
They are destroying anything in their path. The Dodgers, Padres, Phillies.
I bet you a Frostee, that the average ESPN anchor couldn't tell you the names of seven people on either roster, without looking.

I hope the crow is good. i do.
I just wish it had been my Friars in this fight.
Well it would have been, but they ran into the Rockies.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are probably more like a 90-win team when Brandon Webb is starting, and a 70-win team when he is not. I hope that doesn’t seem harsh; maybe I’m giving Conor Jackson some bulletin-board material. But when your best hitter is Eric Byrnes, and your starting pitcher is Livan Hernandez—I don’t care if you’ve got Satchel Paige in your bullpen, you’re battling uphill.

46. Jesus Melendez Posted: October 07, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2565108)

Oh Jesus...I'm at it again.

The Hall of Very Good

47. Justin Zeth, dog Posted: October 07, 2007 at 07:46 AM (#2565136)

Even this evening, everybody is all up in arms because the lovable losers, well, lost.
Nobody is talking about how great these two other teams are playing.

I did!

And yes, this is a deliberate attempt to stop Jesus from hijacking the thread. Fight spam with spam! Please play along.

On the bright side, Cubs fans, at least Carlos Zambrano will be really good and rested for Opening Day 2008.

48. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 07, 2007 at 07:55 AM (#2565140)

By the way, it was Will Carroll who made that "Unfiltered" post which BPro states is unedited copy.

I also am puzzled on how THIS site we have folks mocking and disparaging "the math". The D'backs ARE an outlier. History has shown that.

Why some can't just enjoy the uniqueness of this event is a puzzler.

Though I have suspected for some time that a good many fans use sports as a reason to rub someone's nose in sh#t. They really don't care about the sport. They care about being "right".

49. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:16 AM (#2565146)

Why some can't just enjoy the uniqueness of this event is a puzzler.

I am enjoying the uniqueness of this event. I'm just not using 90 wins as the basis for what I think they will do next year.

50. TOLAXOR Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:38 AM (#2565153)

I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT IF NATE LIMITED HIMSELF TO THE PROBABILITY STATEMENTS HE MADE (D-B ~35% CUBS ~65%) - HE SHOULDN'T HAVE TO APOLOGIZE FOR ANYTHING, NOR WOULD A D-BACKS WIN MAKE HIM "WRONG", THAT'S NOT HOW PROBABILITY WORKS!!!

IF WE GIVE ONE TEAM A ONE IN THREE PROBABILITY OF WINNING, WE SHOULDN'T BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THEY IN FACT DO WIN!!!

WHERE NATE WENT WRONG, OF COURSE, WAS THEN JUMPING FROM HIS BELIEF STATEMENTS = THE PROBABILITIES IN HIS CONCLUSION, TO "CUBS SWEEP"...

51. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:45 AM (#2565156)

WHERE NATE WENT WRONG, OF COURSE, WAS THEN JUMPING FROM HIS BELIEF STATEMENTS = THE PROBABILITIES IN HIS CONCLUSION, TO "CUBS SWEEP"...

The probabilities and Silver's prediction are two different beasts. Probabilities can always be defended simply by explaining how probability works, so it's hard to turn that into a concrete prediction. Silver did what all of us do: Looked at evidence and made a prediction, and he turned out to be wrong.

52. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:54 AM (#2565157)

And it would somewhat bad business for the CEO to say, "My company's predictive models say A. But I don't believe them."

Silver need not "apologize" for his prediction.

He has other issues like why Carroll still has a job.......

53. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:04 AM (#2565159)

He doesn't need to apologize but a "Whoops, my bad" would be nice, something that BP never ever does. And then on top of the Neener neener that Carroll did in Unfiltered this is just funny.

54. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:17 AM (#2565163)

Bernal:

I do not find Carroll funny. He represents the very worst traits of this community. He learns a few phrases, stands on others shoulders and then presents himself as an oracle.

He's a shallow thinker incapable of producing an ounce of insight.

I really don't think sitting at a laptop all day exchanging e-mails with doctors so you can keep Fantasy baseballers up to date on injury status is some unique skill. It's a boring and repetitive task. Nobody celebrates my taking a sh#t every day. Why should anyone be impressed by Carroll's efforts?

55. 1k5v3L Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:47 AM (#2565176)

Silver doesn't need to apologize for anything... but one would hope that he would've actually engaged in more analysis and less homerism when he made his ARI-CHI series "prediction". I seem to recall that Silver is from Chicago, and that he's a White Sox fan, but am guessing he's been on the Cubs bandwagon this season. His original "prediction", followed by his post on breaking curses after game 2, and capped by his random drivel in his "live from Wrigley" post, tell me that he should've just asked Will Carroll to predict the Cubs-Dbacks series.

56. Howie Menckel Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:59 AM (#2565182)

"a "Whoops, my bad" would be nice, something that BP never ever does."

Amen, brother.

I remember their Hornsby-esque prediction for Jose Ortiz for 2002, after the forgettable 2B hit 13 HR in 204 ABs for the Rockies the year before.
The following year, the book acted like it had never happened.
Starting the year after that, I acted like the book never happened.

Meanwhile Shandler doesn't seem to go a month on his Website without a self-deprecating jab about his former Fullmer fascination (wow, would be a great rock band name right there).

It's all about insecurity and its opposite.

57. Deadball Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:02 AM (#2565185)

Nobody celebrates my taking a sh#t every day.

Well I would if you started a website and then charged me for it, making me think I was missing something vitally important.

I probably wouldn't re-up after the first year, though.

58. retro-shiite Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:26 AM (#2565200)

oh YESSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

middle america ROOLZ!!!!!!!!

Uh, baseball chick? Chicago is part of "middle america." Phoenix and Denver aren't. Just sayin'.

59. retro-shiite Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:29 AM (#2565202)

#### the Cubs.

No, GR, go #### yourself, and get over your team's late-season meltdown. Even the Cubs never missed a postseason bid they were one pitch away from clinching.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

60. retro-shiite Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:30 AM (#2565203)

What did they spend this offseason, 300 million? a 300 Million Dollar failure.

Yeah, going from last place to first in one season. That's just awful. Least they made the postseason, Padre Fanboy.

61. retro-shiite Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:31 AM (#2565205)

Even this evening, everybody is all up in arms because the lovable losers, well, lost.

Doesn't sound that way to me. Sounds to me like there's a hell of a lot of grave dancing from people who wanted them to lose. Like, say, you.

Seriously--short of the Yankees blowing a 3-0 LCS lead to the Red Sox, I've never seen anything quite like this level of joy over a team (and a mediocre team at that, in this instance) losing a series. Jesus, you people are pathetic. You get all bent out of shape by what Nate Silver thinks.

62. tribefan Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:35 AM (#2565206)

Congrats on post 54, Harveys. That was a serious smackdown. Nicely done.

63. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: October 07, 2007 at 11:31 AM (#2565280)

I didn't mean that Carroll was funny, I meant that his crowing about getting one lousy team exactly right, one out of 30 I might add, and now Silver looking like a complete idiot is funny. I guess I will have to mention this to them at Cooperstown next year when Pete Rose is inducted. Ha.

64. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: October 07, 2007 at 12:09 PM (#2565334)

He doesn't need to apologize but a "Whoops, my bad" would be nice, something that BP never ever does.

They did offer a nice mea culpa after their disastrous "Galarraga in Atlanta" projection. Then again, that was, what, a decade ago?

Congratulations to the D-Backs, though I was hoping for a better series. The Cubs just cratered at the wrong time; that could have happened to any team in the playoffs.

65. Kirby Kyle Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:46 PM (#2565498)

I didn't look at other sites, but virtually all the diehard Cub fans posting here expressed opinions ranging from cautious optimism to "I'm just glad to be in the postseason." There was some analysis to examine whether maybe the Cubs were better than their record or the DBacks worse than theirs. Most of the back-and-forth was respectful.

I would have liked a different outcome, but that's the way short series go. Congrats to the Diamondbacks and their fans.

66. 1k5v3L Posted: October 07, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2565545)

Lou saying nice words about Stephen Drew

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/1006dbnotes1007.html

Quote
"I'll tell you what. You want to talk about their team, start talking about their shortstop. What a job he did. The Drew kid. He made some great plays, hit some home runs. What did he hit, over .500 in this playoff? Pretty impressive." - Cubs manager Lou Piniella, on Drew.

It's been so nice to see Drew get hot and begin hitting like he's capable of hitting. His defense has been solid all year, but the Dbacks really need his bat. Hopefully he stays hot against the Rockies...

67. TerpNats Posted: October 07, 2007 at 03:05 PM (#2565558)

If the 2006 Cards, from a similarly mediocre division, hadn't won it all, perhaps people would have had more realistic postseason expectations from the Cubs.

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