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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Hulkower: What the Dodgers batting order SHOULD look like

1. Russell Martin
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Orlando Hudson
4. Matt Kemp
5. Andre Ethier
6. Casey Blake
7. James Loney
8. Pitcher’s spot
9. Rafael Furcal

2nd spot: Manny Ramirez. Ramirez is projected to have the highest OBP and SLG on the team. He is not the leadoff hitter (despite the .031 OBP advantage over Martin) because of his .527 slugging percentage. While batting Ramirez first would provide close to an additional 1 1/2 wins, it would also reduce the value of his excellent SLG. Batting Ramirez second will not only increase his plate appearances (the 2 spot had 17 extra plate appearances last season than the 3 spot for the Dodgers and 32 more than the 4 spot) but it will not be all that different than batting him 3rd as Furcal (if I had my way) will be in the 9 spot acting as a back of the line-up lead-off hitter.

3 spot: Orlando Hudson. With Martin and Ramirez batting 1 and 2, the 3 spot doesn’t need to be a power hitter. If both men are on, all that is needed is a single to drive in Martin. A successful at-bat for Hudson can even be to simply move the runners along so that the batters behind him can drive them in. If neither is on, Hudson’s job is to get on base so that Kemp and Ethier can move him around.

And Joe Torre can move around the dunny as he does a doubleshit take.

Repoz Posted: March 19, 2009 at 07:43 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, LA Dodgers

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   1. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 09:14 AM (#3108227)
Even if Torre completely lost his mind one day and did this, can you imagine what Plaschke would do seeing a lineup like this? The column would write itself.
   2. Shooty Rex  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 09:26 AM (#3108236)
I don't think should means what the writer thinks it means.
   3. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 09:33 AM (#3108237)
Ramirez is projected to have the highest OBP and SLG on the team. He is not the leadoff hitter (despite the .031 OBP advantage over Martin) because of his .527 slugging percentage. While batting Ramirez first would provide close to an additional 1 1/2 wins, it would also reduce the value of his excellent SLG. Batting Ramirez second will not only increase his plate appearances (the 2 spot had 17 extra plate appearances last season than the 3 spot for the Dodgers and 32 more than the 4 spot) but it will not be all that different than batting him 3rd as Furcal (if I had my way) will be in the 9 spot acting as a back of the line-up lead-off hitter.


Wait, so batting Ramirez leadoff would result in 1.5 wins, but the writer things it shouldn't be done because Ramirez will knock in more runs batting second? Isn't that similar to people intentionally reducing their income to fall into a lower tax bracket?
   4. Atomic Perros  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 09:52 AM (#3108250)
Is Hulkower a pseudonym for TLR?
   5. akrasian  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:01 AM (#3108257)
The important thing is that Hulkower recognizes that O-Dawg should be batting third, the traditional spot for someone as awesome as he would bat - that way he can provide Manny protection, making pitchers pitch to ManRam, like David Ortiz used to do.
   6. flournoy  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:03 AM (#3108258)
8 spot: Pitcher. Pitchers should bat 8th. Any NL manager who doesn’t bat his pitcher 8th is not doing his best to help his team win. The odds of a manger not batting his fastest guy first are pretty small, but the advantages of hitting the pitcher 8th should be easy and obvious.


Yeah, only a moron wouldn't bat the pitcher eighth. I mean, everyone knows that.
   7. Robert S.  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:04 AM (#3108260)
With Martin and Manny in front of him, I think Hudson has a good shot at grounding into 30 double plays.
   8. Fred Ludacris (Crispix Attacks)  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:08 AM (#3108268)
Hulkower tries to have it like six ways at once, logic-wise, in this article. The comparison to people trying to reduce their income to fit into a lower tax bracket is instructive.

Yeah, only a moron wouldn't bat the pitcher eighth. I mean, everyone knows that.

And if he thinks it makes some sense for Manny Ramirez to bat leadoff, then maybe the pitcher should bat seventh so there are as many men on base as possible for Manny. Or sixth!

An interesting investigation into statistics, though.
   9. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:12 AM (#3108270)
So, the mantra "batting order doesn't matter" is dead now? I'm having trouble keeping up.
   10. Shooty Rex  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:15 AM (#3108275)
So, the mantra "batting order doesn't matter" is dead now? I'm having trouble keeping up.

It's probably true, but the fun of fretting over batting orders will always trump the statistical truism of it.
   11. Atomic Perros  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:31 AM (#3108293)
Batting order matters insofar as you want your best hitters to come to the plate more often than your worst. And preferably, have guys on base ahead of your sluggers.

So batting order is not truly irrelevant, just not worth losing sleep over. And there's something to be said for having a relatively stable order over the course of the season.
   12. OCD SS  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:36 AM (#3108299)
HULKOWER SMASH!
   13. PreservedFish  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 11:11 AM (#3108360)
the advantages of hitting the pitcher 8th should be easy and obvious.


They are not obvious to me.
   14. Joe C is probably only kidding  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 11:41 AM (#3108399)
So, the mantra "batting order doesn't matter" is dead now? I'm having trouble keeping up.

It does matter, but only in the margins.

Didn't RTFA, but Hulkower seems to have read "The Book" - they say bat your best guy 2nd, and Manny is certainly the Dodgers best hitter.
   15. Tango  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 12:15 PM (#3108464)
So, the mantra "batting order doesn't matter" is dead now? I'm having trouble keeping up.


The quantitative description is that an optimal batting order can get you 5-15 more runs in a season. (This has been the case since I started looking at this several years ago, and has not changed since.) How you want to qualitatively say that "a little" or "a lot" is up to you. The numeric description is more accurate in any case, and will not change. That's the only thing you have to keep up with.

Also: remember that moving pitchers from the 8th slot (best) to 4th slot (worst) will cost your team 0.1 runs per game. That's the breadth of impact in making the single worst decision that no one would ever make.

***

Your best hitter should *generally* bat 2nd or 4th. It could happen that he will bat 1st (Rickey, Raines), it could happen that he will bat 3rd. You'd have to look at your entire set of players.

However, it will be very very difficult to find a situation where your five best hitters will not bat somewhere in the top 5. This may seem obvious to everyone here, but I think it's easy to find teams that put one of their 2 or 3 worst hitters in the 2-hole.

***

Also, since star hitters have huge egos, you have to defer to their inner child, as their petulance will easily evaporate the carefully crafted 5-15 run gain you can otherwise hope to get.
   16. Obo  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 12:29 PM (#3108490)
Does mixing your left-handed and right-handed hitters to avoid extended platoon disadvantages not come into it as well?
   17. GuyM  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 12:31 PM (#3108495)
I'm amazed that Pinto's lineup tool continues to be used, or even that it is maintained. It does not, and can not, work. It assumes that each lineup spot has a fixed value, essentially a leverage multiplier that makes the hitter more/less impactful than average. But those multipliers are based on a traditional lineup. If you use a non-traditional lineup, like putting your best 2 hitters 1st and 2nd, that will obviously change the multiplier for those spots -- because they are no longer followed by the team's 2 best hitters! But the lineup tool doesn't account for this -- it says each lineup spot retains the same leverage it had before. That's why it creates the illusion that some lineups are worth 50 more runs than other lineups, when the real impact is MUCH smaller. Essentially, Manny gets to score more runs batting 2nd while still being driven in by, well, Manny.

It's a fun toy, but the results truly are meaningless. For most lineups, you'd be better off just summing the players' stats and ingoring lineup entirely.
   18. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: March 19, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3108565)
Also, since star hitters have huge egos, you have to defer to their inner child, as their petulance will easily evaporate the carefully crafted 5-15 run gain you can otherwise hope to get.

I wouldn't've thought petulance was so well-measured.
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