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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, December 06, 2007IBA: Brian’s song: Lincecum for Jays’ Rios?An inspiring true story of friendship, courage and mass confusion.
Repoz
Posted: December 06, 2007 at 04:25 PM | 62 comment(s)
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The Jays just should have just given a prospect to tip the balance of the 2 year difference in control.
Also, Rios value is higher if you play him in CF, which he can do. He has great defense, and he's valuable if you believe his power will continue to get better. He probably has the best batting practice power on the team (which I've seen every day). I have a ball he hit into the 5th deck at Rogers Centre. I can see him being a 30/30 player.
Seriously, I havent' heard a Giants fan in favor of this deal, and the Blue Jays fan sites I checked are big fans. If we wouldn't do Delmon Young for Lincecum, why would we do Rios? 5 years of control vs 3 is a big deal, and the upside is much higher with Timmah.
No, I'd say the last 5 years are proof of active menace.
Sabean undoubtedly regards Rios much more highly than he does Young.
Sabean has no regard for "proespects", none
Sabean has had some succes at developing pitchers
none at all insofar as finding and developing position players
He regards replacing a Lincecum/Cain as being easier to do than getting a Rios- because for him that's been true.
And yes he should be fired for even thinking of this trade.
I agree. I don't see how Rios is better than say, Nick Swisher.
I'm not saying I'd make the trade. But I certainly don't have all the information on Lincecum that Sabean has.
On the other hand, his youth talent evaluations don't provide a whole lot of confidence.
Well Rios is nice, but how is he better than a player like Nick Swisher? Swisher is the same age, beats Rios' OPS+, both career and over the last 2 years, albeit marginally over the last 2 years, and like Rios is a very good defender. He is also controlled over the next 4 years, 5 if the club option is counted.
Why Rios?
No, not really. I haven't heard it suggested anywhere that Lincecum's likely to break down, 120/122 is good but nothing particularly special for a corner OF, and Rios is only "younger" by Giants standards (he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 when the Giants are ready to win again, at which point he won't be under club control anymore anyway). Sure, he'd be the Giants' best hitter, but that's because the Giants have a sucktastic offense--not because Rios is the type of player you build around. Unless there IS some health issue with Lincecum that hasn't been publicized, you simply do not trade a pitcher with Lincecum's potential (hell, he's already pretty polished) for that kind of player.
Things people aren't looking at are his defense. He has a canon for an arm, so he's a lock for 10 plus assists, and causing runners to not advance.
But for Lincecum, trading now is selling low unless you *know* his arm is going to fall off.
The Santana trade? That's selling high, and look what it's netting.
Not just Alex Rios, that's for sure.
Holy hannah, Brian Sabean is an idiot. Except for drafting and developing pitching. That he (or Tidrow, whom he hired, so same difference) can actually do.
My impression is that Rios is much better defensively.
Rios is only "younger" by Giants standards (he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 when the Giants are ready to win again, at which point he won't be under club control anymore anyway).
I just don't buy that this is the plan or goal. It took the Tigers three years to go from 43 wins to the World Series. It may be that Sabean can't get it done, but it is not a fait accompli that the Giants won't be good for four or more years, nor that they wouldn't be able to keep Rios beyond that.
To reiterate- I don't think the talent adds up. But I understand the idea, and Rios isn't just a fungible OF.
Sabean probably likes Rios because he LOOKS like a gdamn ballplayer while Swisher looks like a roadie for Fever Marlene.
Arm yes, Rios is undoubtedly better, Rios has a cannon; range, probably not. Swisher is not your typical "moneyball" fat slug. His defense is pretty damn good.
I seriously doubt that he is a good defensive CF.
No, because why would you draft him 19 months ago (in a draft where everyone passed him up because they were afraid) because of that? The safe action would have been to pass him then and not give a club-record bonus - not now, when he's proved himself. If this happens, its about Sabean being an idiot who doesn't know how to value talent, rather than a fear of a breakdown.
I seriously doubt that he is a good defensive CF.
Why do you doubt this? He has good speed and range, and has a great arm. The only reason he plays RF in Toronto is because they aren't going to move "gold glover" Vernon Wells.
Because you thought he'd advance quickly, at which point you could move him for some in-prime talent, such as Alex Rios? Glad you're certain- not sure how you can be.
Howard, nothing has changed in his motion since college - not a damn thing. He has NEVER missed a start at any level and never had any arm injury. Nonetheless, if his motion scares the bejesus out of you, why would you spend your highest pick in a decade on him and give him a club-record bonus? You don't draft that high with the intent to trade - you draft that high to get relatively cheap high end talent. All the press feedback, including from the Giants FO, has been that they recognize his motion is different and let him do it - Rags lets him work his own way. Where is the sudden evidence of a breakdown coming from?
This is Sabean we're talking about.
SF Farm guys are seen first and foremost as trade bait and potential Giants second.
If MLB teams could trade picks I doubt the Giants would have held onto a single 1st round pick his entire regime- in fact he's deliberately signed borderline type A FAs before the arb deadline just so he could lose his 1st round pick because he didn't want to pay bonus money to unproven amateur players.
Trust me, the Michael Tucker fiasco lives on in my memory with far more anger.
My point isn't the Giants don't trade young for old - sadly, that is their modus operandi, because Sabean is an idiot. Rather, I'm suggesting that the idea that this deal makes sense because Lincecum is a greater risk is what is illogical - he is no greater risk than when they drafted him. They want to deal him because they don't understand talent and think RBI's are still an optimal way of measuring offensive success - not some new and heightened injury risk.
Now, that doesn't strike me as a worry -- 92mph is no dead arm, and a lot of young pitchers have dead-arm periods as they adjust the the workload -- but his arm isn't bionic. He's very, very good, but human.
Since he is a pitcher, and since pitchers do blow up, I'd listen to an overwhelming offer.
Rios just isn't overwhelming.
Lincecum and Cain are pretty much the only reason I'm watching/caring about the Giants, so I'd be pissed. But if you're going to make a deal, why not Delmon Young instead of Alexis Rios? This smacks of stupidity to me.
In that case, Sabean should trade Linecum for Hideki Matsui, who has hit 100+ RBI in four of his five MLB seasons. Rios, meanwhile, has never hit 100 RBIs in any season. Heck, last year Jimmy Rollins had more RBI than Rios, and Rollins is a leadoff hitter!
I think they do it because early in Sabean's regime it seemed to work and made some sense in those teams' situation (possessing an unbelievable roided up monster).
Actually only 2 GMs of recent vintage strike me as unredeemable idiots, Littlefield and Phillips (and it took Phillips' ESPN work to fully convince me*- afterall one of his teams went to the WS, how dumb could he be I used to think).
Sabean is more like someone who has fulfilled his purpose and really really really needs to go.
*About three years ago I met 2 guys who used to work for the Mets, being a huge Met follower I began going off on a few things- and so did they... they assured me that Jim Duquette was really a good guy and a victim of circumstances... McIlvaine was a bright guy, but Phillips was dumber than a box of rocks- the Wilpons liked him and that was that, he worked hard (or seemed to anyway) and was good at blowing smoke up the Wilpon's nether regions... They also told me that most guys working for MLB clubs were no smarter or dumber than many fans, sad but true, the ex-jock MLBers wondering around in MLB employ were no smarter or dumber than the ex-Jocks running HS Phys-Ed classes...
Well, sure, they're about the only things the team fields worth watching. But if someone offers you a can't-miss hitting prospects, an above-average CF, an adequate starter who's cheap next year you can flip at the trade deadline and maybe some long-shot high-ceiling hitter in the low minors, you have to listen. Of course, that's like saying 'bring me a Santana trade' -- which is just what I'm saying.
You don't trade guys who might be Cy candidates, but have low trade value because they haven't performed yet.
You do what the Twinkies are doing. You know -- fleecing Sabean of Liriano as a throwin, and trading Santana for peak value.
Plus, being in the NL, Jimmy Rollins was most often hitting behind Jamie Moyer in the lineup. Whereas Rios had the benefit of batting behind...oh wait, John McDonald. Never mind.
Hey pal, he's no Zicasso!
Heh - I used my name here initially (6-7 years ago), and then transition to "the artist formerly known as [NAme]", and finally ended up at artist. Most of the people who were around then aren't around anymore, so it works. ;) I need something better,.
I mean, someone, somewhere has to be able to offer something better than Rios for Lincecum, right?
Rios has a crapload of equity (as compared to his FA value). He is a super two, I think, signed in 08 for 2.something mil. He is around a 2.5 WAR player going into 08 in his year 27 season. That means he is worth, as a FA, around 12 mil a year. So he has around 10 mil in equity in 07 alone. That is a lot.
In 08-10 (his last 3 years before FA) he'll probably earn a combined 15 mil in 08 dollars, so he'll have around another 20 mil in equity, or around 30 mil in equity from 07 through 2010.
Lincecum is essentially a first year player. He is around a 3 WAR pitcher and might get better in the next few years if he stays healthy. So his equity next year (08) is around 14 mil. After that he has 5 more years under control of whoever has him. That is a valuable commodity for such a good pitcher. However, even good pitchers are not projected to pitch that many innings each subsequent year (either they become bad, get hurt, or both, quite often. For a pitcher with almost no track record, even a good one, they lose, on the average, 15-20% in IP per year. Lincecum, literally will be projected for like 80 IP in his last year of arb. Anyway, he has a projection of a total of around 12 WAR for 09-13. That is worth 50-60 mm. This is all in 08 dollars. He'll make around 20 mil for his first 6 years one way or another (either with arb or if he signs a long-term before FA or before arb). So his total FA value in those 6 years, 08-13, is around 70, and will be paid, 20 mil, for a total equity of around 50 mil.
So Lincecum has equity of 50 mil (in today's dollars) over the next 6 years, and Rios has 30 mil in equity over the next 4 years. The projections and calculations for Rios are more certain. And if Lincecum is indeed a larger-than-average injury risk, then we can reduce his equity somewhat.
Looks like having Lincecum is the much better deal, but it might be closer than it looks (20 mil edge to Lincecum).
Do teams like the Giants or most other teams do this kind of analysis?
Thanks, no thanks. I apply the Delmon Young test - would I trade any of these guys for Young, a 21 year old potential superstar? If not - pass.
Pretty much the only 1 on 1 deals I'd do for Lincecum are Jay Bruce and Justin Upton - neither of whose teams would do the deal (I think).
Honestly? I'd bet no. The Giants literally have never shown any signs that they are anything other than an "old-school" organization.
And now that Ed Wade's running the show in Houston, I would guess Houston does not either.
I'm just saying there surely are better deals out there for Lincecum than Rios. I don't get this deal at all. I sort of get why the Blue Jays might be hesitant to do it because of the offensive gap it would create, but I just don't see why you'd do this if you're the Giants.
That sounds about right. Me, I don't see a 70% inequity on one side of an exchange as 'close', but then I haven't run the numbers on, say, the Santana offers. How much more present value does the latest mooted Red Sox package carry than Santana himself?
Much as I like it, this style of analysis breaks down a couple ways, one of which explains why the Red Sox are going to take a loss on the acquisition. For a team that's good and can win, especially one of the big-market teams, the chances of another Series win is more likely and has a much higher marginal value for them than for a mediocre team who doesn't sniff the playoffs or for a good team who can't monetize a Series win nearly as well. The Sox are good, could well win again, and can turn that win or even getting close into a lot of money. The present value of the entire trade for them, including the increased probability of a playoff appearance and series win and its attendant revenues may well be positive, while the equity swap is negative.
i can say that if Lincecum played for my favorite team, I'd be devastated to see him go anywhere. He was the most enjoyable pitcher to watch of any I saw last year.
Before the Wells was extended the general plan was to trade him if a nice package came up, since we had a CF in the wings anyway.
I'm not sure if this is an accurate assessment of his abilities, but I think most people associated with the Jays would have been perfectly happy seeing Rios in CF in 2007 had Wells been traded
Two, although technically a run saved is a little better than a run added, because it lowers the run environment and hence the win value of a run, the difference ain't worth getting excited about.
That was your real name? I didn't know that. What's the etymology or whatever?
Well, if you doubt it than it must not be true.
Seriously, Rios can play CF. He is a plus defensive corner outfielder with a strong arm and good range. As has been said above, Jays fans were more than willing to have him play CF if Wells left. I see little reason to doubt he'd be a good defensive CF and there's no evidence he'd be any worse than average.
Swisher didn't look good in CF, but he's very efficient in the corners. He may look like Jeremy Giambi, but he certainly doesn't play defense like him.
Sabean would never do it.
I would be happy to package Wakefield and Timlin though...
I am deeply skeptical, but who knows.
Considering what Andruw got from the Dodgers, the Giants should have been after him if they want to add a hitter. At least make Colletti commit more resources to him. But Andruw plus Lincecum minus $20M is better than Rios.
One of the Giants beat guys was on KNBR on the drive home and said ownership has told him they are going to tell the fans they intend to contend in 2008. Sounds like they haven't learned.
Honestly, I'm surprised nobody has commented on this zinger.
Sanchez instead of Lincecum would be like passing up on Tejada and giving the SS job to Neifi Perez. Oh wait...
In Lester, at least the Giants would be making up somewhat for the loss of Lincecum on the pitching side, though not nearly enough and Ellsbury would give them an exciting position player. I get the sense though that they're looking for established hitters in the hopes of being competitive next year so maybe Ellsbury and Lester wouldn't be all that attractive. I hope not.
Going by UZR, RZR, ZR, he has good range, not exceptional range. Swisher is also a plus defensive corner OF. Rios is no better than Swisher, range wise.
But, if the Jays fans are hoping to get Lincecum for him, it must be true that he can be good defensive CF.
Team ERA+ of 106 Check
Team OPS+ of 89- hmmm have a problem.
Only 2 regulars had OPS+s better than 100 in 2007- Bonds at 170 and Winn at 105.
No more Bonds
The Giants avoided finishing in last in runs scored by 10.
If they could reach an OPS+ of 100 without losing pitching, they could contend.
Hmmm
OF
Winn
Lewis
Ortmeier
Schierholtz
You *could* get league average production out of that group (you could also get a collective OPS+ of 92, and I don't see a real upside).
You can't trade pitching (well you can- but its' pointless, you can't detract from that 106 ERA+ and contend)
FAs? Mike Cameron?
C: Molina- keep, they're not likely to get an upgrade
1B
2B
SS
3B
Yikes, yikes, yikes, and yikes
calling all Ken Phelps all stars!
Viz MLB.com details on Cabrera:
The only explanation here is that, yes, Virginia, Brian Sabean is an idiot.
They should fire him and promote Dick Tidrow. For that matter, they could promote one of the retirees the team uses as ballboys and do better.
I seriously doubt that Rios is a good defensive CF.
This is a ridiculously uninformed comment. Do some research. Or at least read what others have posted.
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