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Thursday, December 06, 2007

IBA: Brian’s song: Lincecum for Jays’ Rios?

An inspiring true story of friendship, courage and mass confusion.

Industry reaction was one-sided against the proposal, leading to speculation that the Giants consider Lincecum a health risk because of his slight build and high-effort delivery. “You don’t give up a pitcher like Lincecum for a player like Rios,” said an official of a club that looked at trading for Rios last year. “He’s a nice player, but he’s not a game-changer. To consider a deal like that tells me they question whether Lincecum can hold up.”

If the Giants trade a starting pitcher, Sabean said they would look to fill the vacancy internally, and he expected Jonathan Sanchez would be given a chance.

“Not that that’s a bad option, but it would be some big shoes to fill,” Sabean said. “Talent-wise, you’re really taking a step back in the present and future.”

Repoz Posted: December 06, 2007 at 04:25 PM | 62 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSan FranciscoToronto

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   1. MSI Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2637415)
Too bad, I really wanted that one to happen. Considering they are looking into Matsui, I doubt it at this point.

The Jays just should have just given a prospect to tip the balance of the 2 year difference in control.

Also, Rios value is higher if you play him in CF, which he can do. He has great defense, and he's valuable if you believe his power will continue to get better. He probably has the best batting practice power on the team (which I've seen every day). I have a ball he hit into the 5th deck at Rogers Centre. I can see him being a 30/30 player.
   2. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2637422)
Grr....

Seriously, I havent' heard a Giants fan in favor of this deal, and the Blue Jays fan sites I checked are big fans. If we wouldn't do Delmon Young for Lincecum, why would we do Rios? 5 years of control vs 3 is a big deal, and the upside is much higher with Timmah.
   3. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:43 PM (#2637423)
If--and I mean IF--Sabean was seriously considering this trade, then he really needs to be fired. It would be evidence that the man has scooted past benign incompetence and has become an active menace.
   4. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:46 PM (#2637424)

If--and I mean IF--Sabean was seriously considering this trade, then he really needs to be fired. It would be evidence that the man has scooted past benign incompetence and has become an active menace.


No, I'd say the last 5 years are proof of active menace.
   5. retro-shiite Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2637426)
I guess I don't understand what's so damned special about Alex Rios. He's OK, but the talk of giving up Lincecum for him straight-up completely baffles me.
   6. JPWF13 Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2637429)
If we wouldn't do Delmon Young for Lincecum, why would we do Rios?


Sabean undoubtedly regards Rios much more highly than he does Young.

Sabean has no regard for "proespects", none

Sabean has had some succes at developing pitchers
none at all insofar as finding and developing position players

He regards replacing a Lincecum/Cain as being easier to do than getting a Rios- because for him that's been true.

And yes he should be fired for even thinking of this trade.
   7. rfloh Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2637430)
#5

I agree. I don't see how Rios is better than say, Nick Swisher.
   8. HowardMegdal Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2637433)
Rios is an outfielder that provided 120 and 122 OPS+, is entering his age 27 season, and has the tools to perhaps go beyond that. If the Giants think Lincecum is likely to break down, and they need younger hitters, you can't understand why they'd consider this?

I'm not saying I'd make the trade. But I certainly don't have all the information on Lincecum that Sabean has.

On the other hand, his youth talent evaluations don't provide a whole lot of confidence.
   9. retro-shiite Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2637436)
Right. He'll be 27 in '08, and his numbers the past 2 years are pretty good, but certainly not great, for a corner OF. His defense better be pretty damned awesome to make that worth Tim Lincecum.
   10. rfloh Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2637439)
#8

Well Rios is nice, but how is he better than a player like Nick Swisher? Swisher is the same age, beats Rios' OPS+, both career and over the last 2 years, albeit marginally over the last 2 years, and like Rios is a very good defender. He is also controlled over the next 4 years, 5 if the club option is counted.

Why Rios?
   11. retro-shiite Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2637441)
If the Giants think Lincecum is likely to break down, and they need younger hitters, you can't understand why they'd consider this?

No, not really. I haven't heard it suggested anywhere that Lincecum's likely to break down, 120/122 is good but nothing particularly special for a corner OF, and Rios is only "younger" by Giants standards (he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 when the Giants are ready to win again, at which point he won't be under club control anymore anyway). Sure, he'd be the Giants' best hitter, but that's because the Giants have a sucktastic offense--not because Rios is the type of player you build around. Unless there IS some health issue with Lincecum that hasn't been publicized, you simply do not trade a pitcher with Lincecum's potential (hell, he's already pretty polished) for that kind of player.
   12. MSI Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2637442)
Rios dealt with an injury in 2006 that slowed his production. This year...well he went into a bit of a slump after the homerun derby, which is pretty common isn't it?

Things people aren't looking at are his defense. He has a canon for an arm, so he's a lock for 10 plus assists, and causing runners to not advance.
   13. wcw Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2637445)
I like Alex Rios better than Swisher -- he's faster and he plays better defense. If this had been Lowry for Rios straight up, I'd have jumped at the deal, and junkballers like Lowry are fetching $10m per this offseason. His peripherals may be crap, but he's cheap and he gets outs.

But for Lincecum, trading now is selling low unless you *know* his arm is going to fall off.

The Santana trade? That's selling high, and look what it's netting.

Not just Alex Rios, that's for sure.

Holy hannah, Brian Sabean is an idiot. Except for drafting and developing pitching. That he (or Tidrow, whom he hired, so same difference) can actually do.
   14. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2637449)
Swisher for Lincecum, Harden for Baldelli, stationary bike for Jose Reyes uncover the tarp and have 1$ hot dog night every night!
   15. HowardMegdal Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2637458)
Well Rios is nice, but how is he better than a player like Nick Swisher? Swisher is the same age, beats Rios' OPS+, both career and over the last 2 years, albeit marginally over the last 2 years, and like Rios is a very good defender. He is also controlled over the next 4 years, 5 if the club option is counted.

My impression is that Rios is much better defensively.

Rios is only "younger" by Giants standards (he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 when the Giants are ready to win again, at which point he won't be under club control anymore anyway).

I just don't buy that this is the plan or goal. It took the Tigers three years to go from 43 wins to the World Series. It may be that Sabean can't get it done, but it is not a fait accompli that the Giants won't be good for four or more years, nor that they wouldn't be able to keep Rios beyond that.

To reiterate- I don't think the talent adds up. But I understand the idea, and Rios isn't just a fungible OF.
   16. Repoz Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2637461)
Well Rios is nice, but how is he better than a player like Nick Swisher?

Sabean probably likes Rios because he LOOKS like a gdamn ballplayer while Swisher looks like a roadie for Fever Marlene.
   17. rfloh Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2637463)
#15

Arm yes, Rios is undoubtedly better, Rios has a cannon; range, probably not. Swisher is not your typical "moneyball" fat slug. His defense is pretty damn good.
   18. Shock Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2637465)
Rios is a good enough defender that he can play CF, and probably would on the Giants or many other teams. Is a good defensive CF with an OPS+ of 120-130 worth Lincecum? I don't really know.
   19. rfloh Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2637468)
If Rios can be a good defensive CF with an OPS+ > 120, he is one of the best players in MLB. He would be equivalent of Ichiro! at the least, and close to Beltran.

I seriously doubt that he is a good defensive CF.
   20. Brandon in MO (for America!) Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2637469)
Lincecum for DeJesus
   21. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2637471)
If the Giants think Lincecum is likely to break down, and they need younger hitters, you can't understand why they'd consider this?


No, because why would you draft him 19 months ago (in a draft where everyone passed him up because they were afraid) because of that? The safe action would have been to pass him then and not give a club-record bonus - not now, when he's proved himself. If this happens, its about Sabean being an idiot who doesn't know how to value talent, rather than a fear of a breakdown.
   22. Shock Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2637475)

I seriously doubt that he is a good defensive CF.


Why do you doubt this? He has good speed and range, and has a great arm. The only reason he plays RF in Toronto is because they aren't going to move "gold glover" Vernon Wells.
   23. HowardMegdal Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2637476)
No, because why would you draft him 19 months ago (in a draft where everyone passed him up because they were afraid) because of that? The safe action would have been to pass him then and not give a club-record bonus - not now, when he's proved himself. If this happens, its about Sabean being an idiot who doesn't know how to value talent, rather than a fear of a breakdown.

Because you thought he'd advance quickly, at which point you could move him for some in-prime talent, such as Alex Rios? Glad you're certain- not sure how you can be.
   24. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2637481)

Because you thought he'd advance quickly, at which point you could move him for some in-prime talent, such as Alex Rios? Glad you're certain- not sure how you can be.


Howard, nothing has changed in his motion since college - not a damn thing. He has NEVER missed a start at any level and never had any arm injury. Nonetheless, if his motion scares the bejesus out of you, why would you spend your highest pick in a decade on him and give him a club-record bonus? You don't draft that high with the intent to trade - you draft that high to get relatively cheap high end talent. All the press feedback, including from the Giants FO, has been that they recognize his motion is different and let him do it - Rags lets him work his own way. Where is the sudden evidence of a breakdown coming from?
   25. JPWF13 Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2637485)
You don't draft that high with the intent to trade - you draft that high to get relatively cheap high end talent.


This is Sabean we're talking about.
SF Farm guys are seen first and foremost as trade bait and potential Giants second.

If MLB teams could trade picks I doubt the Giants would have held onto a single 1st round pick his entire regime- in fact he's deliberately signed borderline type A FAs before the arb deadline just so he could lose his 1st round pick because he didn't want to pay bonus money to unproven amateur players.
   26. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:52 PM (#2637490)
Sabean is like the opposite of a Sixties hippie: "Never trust anyone under 30."
   27. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2637493)
This is Sabean we're talking about.
SF Farm guys are seen first and foremost as trade bait and potential Giants second.

If MLB teams could trade picks I doubt the Giants would have held onto a single 1st round pick his entire regime- in fact he's deliberately signed borderline type A FAs before the arb deadline just so he could lose his 1st round pick because he didn't want to pay bonus money to unproven amateur players.


Trust me, the Michael Tucker fiasco lives on in my memory with far more anger.

My point isn't the Giants don't trade young for old - sadly, that is their modus operandi, because Sabean is an idiot. Rather, I'm suggesting that the idea that this deal makes sense because Lincecum is a greater risk is what is illogical - he is no greater risk than when they drafted him. They want to deal him because they don't understand talent and think RBI's are still an optimal way of measuring offensive success - not some new and heightened injury risk.
   28. wcw Posted: December 06, 2007 at 06:57 PM (#2637497)
The Artist, he went through a bit of a dead-arm period this year. Check out the GD2 data. Of course, with Lincecum that meant his fastball was coming in at 92 instead of 96, but it lasted a start or so and the Giants gave him some extra rest starting around then until the end of the season.

Now, that doesn't strike me as a worry -- 92mph is no dead arm, and a lot of young pitchers have dead-arm periods as they adjust the the workload -- but his arm isn't bionic. He's very, very good, but human.

Since he is a pitcher, and since pitchers do blow up, I'd listen to an overwhelming offer.

Rios just isn't overwhelming.
   29. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2637501)

The Artist, he went through a bit of a dead-arm period this year. Check out the GD2 data. Of course, with Lincecum that meant his fastball was coming in at 92 instead of 96, but it lasted a start or so and the Giants gave him some extra rest starting around then until the end of the season.

Now, that doesn't strike me as a worry -- 92mph is no dead arm, and a lot of young pitchers have dead-arm periods as they adjust the the workload -- but his arm isn't bionic. He's very, very good, but human.

Since he is a pitcher, and since pitchers do blow up, I'd listen to an overwhelming offer.

Rios just isn't overwhelming.


Lincecum and Cain are pretty much the only reason I'm watching/caring about the Giants, so I'd be pissed. But if you're going to make a deal, why not Delmon Young instead of Alexis Rios? This smacks of stupidity to me.
   30. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2637503)
They want to deal him because they don't understand talent and think RBI's are still an optimal way of measuring offensive success - not some new and heightened injury risk.

In that case, Sabean should trade Linecum for Hideki Matsui, who has hit 100+ RBI in four of his five MLB seasons. Rios, meanwhile, has never hit 100 RBIs in any season. Heck, last year Jimmy Rollins had more RBI than Rios, and Rollins is a leadoff hitter!
   31. JPWF13 Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2637506)
My point isn't the Giants don't trade young for old... because Sabean is an idiot.


I think they do it because early in Sabean's regime it seemed to work and made some sense in those teams' situation (possessing an unbelievable roided up monster).

Actually only 2 GMs of recent vintage strike me as unredeemable idiots, Littlefield and Phillips (and it took Phillips' ESPN work to fully convince me*- afterall one of his teams went to the WS, how dumb could he be I used to think).

Sabean is more like someone who has fulfilled his purpose and really really really needs to go.

*About three years ago I met 2 guys who used to work for the Mets, being a huge Met follower I began going off on a few things- and so did they... they assured me that Jim Duquette was really a good guy and a victim of circumstances... McIlvaine was a bright guy, but Phillips was dumber than a box of rocks- the Wilpons liked him and that was that, he worked hard (or seemed to anyway) and was good at blowing smoke up the Wilpon's nether regions... They also told me that most guys working for MLB clubs were no smarter or dumber than many fans, sad but true, the ex-jock MLBers wondering around in MLB employ were no smarter or dumber than the ex-Jocks running HS Phys-Ed classes...
   32. wcw Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2637515)
Since he is a pitcher, and since pitchers do blow up, I'd listen to an overwhelming offer.
Lincecum and Cain are pretty much the only reason I'm watching/caring about the Giants, so I'd be pissed.


Well, sure, they're about the only things the team fields worth watching. But if someone offers you a can't-miss hitting prospects, an above-average CF, an adequate starter who's cheap next year you can flip at the trade deadline and maybe some long-shot high-ceiling hitter in the low minors, you have to listen. Of course, that's like saying 'bring me a Santana trade' -- which is just what I'm saying.

You don't trade guys who might be Cy candidates, but have low trade value because they haven't performed yet.

You do what the Twinkies are doing. You know -- fleecing Sabean of Liriano as a throwin, and trading Santana for peak value.
   33. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2637519)
Heck, last year Jimmy Rollins had more RBI than Rios, and Rollins is a leadoff hitter!

Plus, being in the NL, Jimmy Rollins was most often hitting behind Jamie Moyer in the lineup. Whereas Rios had the benefit of batting behind...oh wait, John McDonald. Never mind.
   34. SuperGrover Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:35 PM (#2637530)
Can Rios play CF? If so it changes his value considerably.
   35. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:44 PM (#2637537)
The "artist"?

Hey pal, he's no Zicasso!
   36. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2637544)
The "artist"?

Hey pal, he's no Zicasso!


Heh - I used my name here initially (6-7 years ago), and then transition to "the artist formerly known as [NAme]", and finally ended up at artist. Most of the people who were around then aren't around anymore, so it works. ;) I need something better,.
   37. Textbook Editor Posted: December 06, 2007 at 07:58 PM (#2637545)
I'd do Ellsbury + maybe Masterson for Lincecum. Heck, do they want JD Drew? I'd deal Drew for Lincecum & slide Ellsbury over to RF for a couple of years until Coco leaves.

I mean, someone, somewhere has to be able to offer something better than Rios for Lincecum, right?
   38. mgl Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:08 PM (#2637557)
A comparison of the two is interesting. Of course, comparing players starts with their value and ends with their contract/status. IOW, you don't trade players, you trade their equities. One way of establishing "equity" is to compare each player to FA value using some $ amount per marginal win above replacement. It doesn't matter what method you use, as long as you use the same for both players and somehow get a replacement or average players in there as a baseline, since we know exactly how much to pay a replacement player (around 500,000) or an average player (probably varies with position, but around 8-9 mm per year).

Rios has a crapload of equity (as compared to his FA value). He is a super two, I think, signed in 08 for 2.something mil. He is around a 2.5 WAR player going into 08 in his year 27 season. That means he is worth, as a FA, around 12 mil a year. So he has around 10 mil in equity in 07 alone. That is a lot.

In 08-10 (his last 3 years before FA) he'll probably earn a combined 15 mil in 08 dollars, so he'll have around another 20 mil in equity, or around 30 mil in equity from 07 through 2010.

Lincecum is essentially a first year player. He is around a 3 WAR pitcher and might get better in the next few years if he stays healthy. So his equity next year (08) is around 14 mil. After that he has 5 more years under control of whoever has him. That is a valuable commodity for such a good pitcher. However, even good pitchers are not projected to pitch that many innings each subsequent year (either they become bad, get hurt, or both, quite often. For a pitcher with almost no track record, even a good one, they lose, on the average, 15-20% in IP per year. Lincecum, literally will be projected for like 80 IP in his last year of arb. Anyway, he has a projection of a total of around 12 WAR for 09-13. That is worth 50-60 mm. This is all in 08 dollars. He'll make around 20 mil for his first 6 years one way or another (either with arb or if he signs a long-term before FA or before arb). So his total FA value in those 6 years, 08-13, is around 70, and will be paid, 20 mil, for a total equity of around 50 mil.

So Lincecum has equity of 50 mil (in today's dollars) over the next 6 years, and Rios has 30 mil in equity over the next 4 years. The projections and calculations for Rios are more certain. And if Lincecum is indeed a larger-than-average injury risk, then we can reduce his equity somewhat.

Looks like having Lincecum is the much better deal, but it might be closer than it looks (20 mil edge to Lincecum).

Do teams like the Giants or most other teams do this kind of analysis?
   39. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:10 PM (#2637559)

I'd do Ellsbury + maybe Masterson for Lincecum. Heck, do they want JD Drew? I'd deal Drew for Lincecum & slide Ellsbury over to RF for a couple of years until Coco leaves.

I mean, someone, somewhere has to be able to offer something better than Rios for Lincecum, right?


Thanks, no thanks. I apply the Delmon Young test - would I trade any of these guys for Young, a 21 year old potential superstar? If not - pass.

Pretty much the only 1 on 1 deals I'd do for Lincecum are Jay Bruce and Justin Upton - neither of whose teams would do the deal (I think).
   40. The Artist Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2637560)

Do teams like the Giants or most other teams do this kind of analysis?


Honestly? I'd bet no. The Giants literally have never shown any signs that they are anything other than an "old-school" organization.
   41. Textbook Editor Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2637566)
mgl, I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty the Phillies do not do analysis like that of any kind. They just run trades by Dallas Green and he tells them whether to do it or not. (I'm only half kidding.)

And now that Ed Wade's running the show in Houston, I would guess Houston does not either.
   42. Textbook Editor Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2637571)
Artist, it doesn't have to be 1-for-1, or even any of those players (I was throwing out 2 OF just because if they want an OF in return... well here's 2 possibilities! And JD Drew's over 30!).

I'm just saying there surely are better deals out there for Lincecum than Rios. I don't get this deal at all. I sort of get why the Blue Jays might be hesitant to do it because of the offensive gap it would create, but I just don't see why you'd do this if you're the Giants.
   43. wcw Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2637577)
Looks like having Lincecum is the much better deal, but it might be closer than it looks (20 mil edge to Lincecum).


That sounds about right. Me, I don't see a 70% inequity on one side of an exchange as 'close', but then I haven't run the numbers on, say, the Santana offers. How much more present value does the latest mooted Red Sox package carry than Santana himself?

Much as I like it, this style of analysis breaks down a couple ways, one of which explains why the Red Sox are going to take a loss on the acquisition. For a team that's good and can win, especially one of the big-market teams, the chances of another Series win is more likely and has a much higher marginal value for them than for a mediocre team who doesn't sniff the playoffs or for a good team who can't monetize a Series win nearly as well. The Sox are good, could well win again, and can turn that win or even getting close into a lot of money. The present value of the entire trade for them, including the increased probability of a playoff appearance and series win and its attendant revenues may well be positive, while the equity swap is negative.
   44. HowardMegdal Posted: December 06, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2637583)
Lincecum and Cain are pretty much the only reason I'm watching/caring about the Giants, so I'd be pissed. But if you're going to make a deal, why not Delmon Young instead of Alexis Rios? This smacks of stupidity to me.

i can say that if Lincecum played for my favorite team, I'd be devastated to see him go anywhere. He was the most enjoyable pitcher to watch of any I saw last year.
   45. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 06, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2637589)
When comparing pitchers and position players, are runs-above whatever figure strictly comparable? Put another way, does the different distributions between the runs that a pitcher prevents and runs that a batter contribute have a greater or smaller effect on winning?
   46. Greg K Posted: December 06, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2637601)
I think the feeling in Toronto (management and fans) is that Rios is a CF who happens to be on the same team as Vernon Wells

Before the Wells was extended the general plan was to trade him if a nice package came up, since we had a CF in the wings anyway.

I'm not sure if this is an accurate assessment of his abilities, but I think most people associated with the Jays would have been perfectly happy seeing Rios in CF in 2007 had Wells been traded
   47. mgl Posted: December 06, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2637604)
#45, yes on two accounts. One, the way I and most people calculate wins above average (or replacement) for pitchers is not to just take runs and convert to wins, by dividing by 10 or 11. We actually assume x amount of runs per game and then turn that into a win percentage using some kind of pythag formula. So, say an offense contributes an extra .5 runs in a 4.7 rpg environment. Now, we have 5.2 rs and 4.7 ra. That would yield a slightly different wp than if a defense allowed 4.2 rpg and scored 4.7 (also a half run per game difference). And that is how we calculate WAA or WAR for a pitcher or for a batter. And of course there is another difference for batters and pitchers as opposed to teams. A pitcher like Lincecum allows a half run per 9 less than an average starter, but a batter like Rios adds .07 runs more per game, so we have to figure 4.77 and 4.7 multiplied by how many games he plays (150 or so). For Lincecum, we do 4.2 rpg for 6 or 7 ip per game, etc.

Two, although technically a run saved is a little better than a run added, because it lowers the run environment and hence the win value of a run, the difference ain't worth getting excited about.
   48. Jeff K. Posted: December 06, 2007 at 11:07 PM (#2637636)
Heh - I used my name here initially (6-7 years ago), and then transition to "the artist formerly known as [NAme]", and finally ended up at artist. Most of the people who were around then aren't around anymore, so it works. ;) I need something better,.

That was your real name? I didn't know that. What's the etymology or whatever?
   49. Squash Posted: December 06, 2007 at 11:26 PM (#2637638)
If this trade is actually going down I bet it has much more to do with Rios being a "proven veteran hitter" (or at least an almost veteran) than any real concerns about Lincecum being injury prone. Either way it's dumb. You can find a lot more Rios's than Lincecums.
   50. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 06, 2007 at 11:27 PM (#2637640)
I seriously doubt that he is a good defensive CF.

Well, if you doubt it than it must not be true.

Seriously, Rios can play CF. He is a plus defensive corner outfielder with a strong arm and good range. As has been said above, Jays fans were more than willing to have him play CF if Wells left. I see little reason to doubt he'd be a good defensive CF and there's no evidence he'd be any worse than average.
   51. Danny Posted: December 06, 2007 at 11:32 PM (#2637641)
MGL on Swisher's defense:

Swisher was +6 runs overall in RF and -3 in CF (these are total runs and not per 150 games), both in limited time of course. I don't know if he can "handle" CF or not, but when moving from a corner to CF, you are going to lose several runs (I forgot how many, off the top of my head), maybe 6-8. Buck was +3 runs overall in RF and LF and a few games in CF. Last year, Swisher was +5 runs overall in around 100 games in RF and LF, and in 05, he was a stellar +12 runs in 90 games in RF. He appears from the numbers to be a well-above average corner OF, which should make him at least an average CF'er, again, at least according to the numbers.

Swisher didn't look good in CF, but he's very efficient in the corners. He may look like Jeremy Giambi, but he certainly doesn't play defense like him.
   52. TravisBedard Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:02 AM (#2637663)
Ellsbury and Masterson?
Sabean would never do it.

I would be happy to package Wakefield and Timlin though...
   53. wcw Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2637695)
Current rumor: I have a secret...

I am deeply skeptical, but who knows.
   54. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2637727)
The thinking fans hate it for the Giants, and the ignorant ones will too. Lincecum was the bright spot for them down the stretch this season. There was a buzz on days he was going to pitch. Maybe 25% of those people have even heard of Rios.

Considering what Andruw got from the Dodgers, the Giants should have been after him if they want to add a hitter. At least make Colletti commit more resources to him. But Andruw plus Lincecum minus $20M is better than Rios.

One of the Giants beat guys was on KNBR on the drive home and said ownership has told him they are going to tell the fans they intend to contend in 2008. Sounds like they haven't learned.
   55. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2637740)
If the Giants trade a starting pitcher, Sabean said they would look to fill the vacancy internally, and he expected Jonathan Sanchez would be given a chance.

Honestly, I'm surprised nobody has commented on this zinger.

Sanchez instead of Lincecum would be like passing up on Tejada and giving the SS job to Neifi Perez. Oh wait...
   56. Norcan Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:48 AM (#2637833)
If the Giants really are willing to deal Lincecum for position players to balance their team--WTF--then I'd hope the Red Sox get involved. I think he might be a player the Red Sox would be willing to deal Ellsbury and Lester in the same package for, not to say that this would be a mindblowing offer or anything but it nevertheless has its attractive points. Keeping those two off-limits together for Johan I can sorta of understand, given how expensive Johan is going to be but in Lincecum, you have the potential to get a pitcher who could end up being a cheap no.1 for you several years from now. That'd be value I think the Red Sox would take a gamble on.

In Lester, at least the Giants would be making up somewhat for the loss of Lincecum on the pitching side, though not nearly enough and Ellsbury would give them an exciting position player. I get the sense though that they're looking for established hitters in the hopes of being competitive next year so maybe Ellsbury and Lester wouldn't be all that attractive. I hope not.
   57. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:11 AM (#2637836)
Brian Sabean might just be dumb enough to take Coco, Lester, and Tavarez
   58. rfloh Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:46 AM (#2637846)
Well, if you doubt it than it must not be true.

Seriously, Rios can play CF. He is a plus defensive corner outfielder with a strong arm and good range. As has been said above, Jays fans were more than willing to have him play CF if Wells left. I see little reason to doubt he'd be a good defensive CF and there's no evidence he'd be any worse than average.


Going by UZR, RZR, ZR, he has good range, not exceptional range. Swisher is also a plus defensive corner OF. Rios is no better than Swisher, range wise.

But, if the Jays fans are hoping to get Lincecum for him, it must be true that he can be good defensive CF.
   59. JPWF13 Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:07 PM (#2638074)
One of the Giants beat guys was on KNBR on the drive home and said ownership has told him they are going to tell the fans they intend to contend in 2008. Sounds like they haven't learned.


Team ERA+ of 106 Check
Team OPS+ of 89- hmmm have a problem.

Only 2 regulars had OPS+s better than 100 in 2007- Bonds at 170 and Winn at 105.
No more Bonds
The Giants avoided finishing in last in runs scored by 10.

If they could reach an OPS+ of 100 without losing pitching, they could contend.

Hmmm
OF
Winn
Lewis
Ortmeier
Schierholtz

You *could* get league average production out of that group (you could also get a collective OPS+ of 92, and I don't see a real upside).
You can't trade pitching (well you can- but its' pointless, you can't detract from that 106 ERA+ and contend)

FAs? Mike Cameron?

C: Molina- keep, they're not likely to get an upgrade
1B
2B
SS
3B
Yikes, yikes, yikes, and yikes
calling all Ken Phelps all stars!
   60. wcw Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:17 PM (#2638155)
If the Giants really are willing to deal Lincecum for position players to balance their team--WTF... I get the sense though that they're looking for established hitters in the hopes of being competitive next year so maybe Ellsbury and Lester wouldn't be all that attractive. I hope not.


Viz MLB.com details on Cabrera:
Previously, the Giants showed interest in Cabrera, but they weren't willing to part with frontline starting pitchers Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain. They, instead, were offering Noah Lowry.


The only explanation here is that, yes, Virginia, Brian Sabean is an idiot.

They should fire him and promote Dick Tidrow. For that matter, they could promote one of the retirees the team uses as ballboys and do better.
   61. Who is Karim Garcia? Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:38 PM (#2638181)
Quick, Mark Shapiro, jump in: Gutierrez and Lee for Lincecum! :) Really, if Lincecum's available, any and every GM should be on the horn.
   62. kwarren Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2638284)
. rfloh Posted: December 06, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2637468)

I seriously doubt that Rios is a good defensive CF.


This is a ridiculously uninformed comment. Do some research. Or at least read what others have posted.
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