Don't think these expectations/projections are reasonable for a guy who has not started an MLB game. Chamberlain displayed obvious talent in his capacity as a set up man, but the mindset and physical approach is totally different from that of a starter. Let's see him go a second/third time through a batting order. Let's give him a chance to develop (or redevelop)the requisite third pitch he'll need. He's probably going to be terrific, but comparing to the best in the game and one of the best ever is ludicrous and incredibly unfair at this point. As talented as Chamberlain is, is he really anymore so than Felix Hernandez??? I think Chamberlain will experince some growing pains, similar to what Felix (who I see as being great this year)went through.

No.

At least they didn't compare him with Chief Bender.

This guy makes a number of basic mistakes in his article.
1) He gives R-squared numbers for pitcher statistics without giving what correlation is being talked about. Is it between a component stat and next year's stat? Is it between a component stat and this year's ERA? Next year's ERA? The author doesn't seem to understand that R-squared describes a relationship between two variables, not a single variable.
2) He compares Joba's relief stats versus other starting pitchers' numbers and concludes that Joba is better. Of course a reliever will put up better rate numbers than if he were a starter.

The only thing we can conclude from this article is that the author read about sabermetrics and understand most, but not all of it.

one major difference is physique at the same age. clemens was almost svelte, and chamberlain is hefty sized.

Is Joba Chamberlain poised to become the best pitcher of all time? Uh, maybe so, but I'd say the odds are agin' it.

I'm most interested in the comparison of Joba to Paplebon. While I think Joba is better according to scouting reports (throws harder, better breaking ball), I think the transition to starting will have him facing very similar hurdles, especially as he tries to do it against major leaguers.

I think his slider is the key. If he can throw it for strikes he should be fine as a fastball-slider type (obviously a third pitch, ideally a change, would help him reach his potential as an ace), but if he can't throw his slider for strikes and keep hitters honest I can see them laying off and waiting for a FB that even if they can't square it up they can foul off and take him into deep counts to get him out of the game earlier. Then a 3rd pitch would become absolutely necessary.

TINSTAAPP?

Ah, but

TISATAAP

As talented as Chamberlain is, is he really anymore so than Felix Hernandez???

I'll defer to the Emeighs and Laws of the world on this, but I would say Hernandez pretty easily has more talent and stuff than Joba.

Shouldn't we give Joba a couple of seasons in the majors before making comparisons? Give the kid a chance to load up on B-12 and lidocaine.

I think his slider is the key. If he can throw it for strikes he should be fine as a fastball-slider type (obviously a third pitch, ideally a change, would help him reach his potential as an ace), but if he can't throw his slider for strikes and keep hitters honest I can see them laying off and waiting for a FB that even if they can't square it up they can foul off and take him into deep counts to get him out of the game earlier. Then a 3rd pitch would become absolutely necessary.

and

I would say Hernandez pretty easily has more talent and stuff than Joba.

From BA's Yankee Top 10:

Scouts chuckle with delight discussing Chamberlain's raw stuff, and several give him 70 or 80 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale for three different pitches...commands two breaking balls--a mid-80s slider with depth and a nasty power curveball in the low 80s. Both are strikeout pitches...

OMG STERIODSES

I would say Hernandez pretty easily has more talent and stuff than Joba.

He might have better stuff, but it's not "easily".

I would say Hernandez pretty easily has more talent and stuff than Joba.

He might have better stuff, but it's not "easily".

Not to mention that he's already broken down once in his young career, and in his last two years he's been back and forth and very inconsistent. If "talent" and "stuff" were all it took, the HoF would be filled with Vida Blues and Mark Fidryches.

At this point all you can say about either Hernandez or Chamberlain is this if they can stay healthy, they've each got a shot at greatness. So did Mike Norris.

Congress should get in early and have him testify now rather than waiting 20 years.

Not to mention that he's already broken down once in his young career, and in his last two years he's been back and forth and very inconsistent.

I assumed that was the point being made -- he doesn't have greater potential (or "easily" less potential according to the poster) than Hernandez ... and he hasn't become the next Pedro. (It's against baseball rules to compare a Latin player with Clemens of course) If it can happen to King Felix, it can happen to anyone.

And Joba ain't got more stuff than Kerry Wood -- lord, that slider was nasty.

The author doesn't seem to understand that R-squared describes a relationship between two variables, not a single variable.

Haven't read the article yet, but R-squared is usually used to describe a relationship between one variable and a whole group of other variables, as in a linear regression. It can be used to describe the relationship between just two variables but it's redundant with the (Pearson) correlation (r ... which folks seem more comfortable with for some reason) in that case.

OK, I checked the article now. You're right, the author clearly has a limited understanding of what that table means. And the table isn't very useful. I looked at the BPro article cited and it's year-to-year correlations (or r-square) on those particular measures. The author of the Joba article says these are correlations "projecting a pitcher's career" when all they're doing is looking at their next season. And it leaves unspecified how Joba's K-rate being consistent next year leads to "success". (Granted, I didn't read all of Click's article and he probably talks about some of that stuff later on ... but the link between Joba's rate stats to date and his future success aren't made in this article.)

There's also the problem that Click's sample was restricted to pitchers with at least 50 IP (in each season I assume) while Joba had only 24 (or 27.2 if you include the playoffs) so it's naughty to treat Click's results as applying to him.

Nevertheless, a "properly" done analysis looking at the future success of, say, pitchers with those kinds of component stats in their first 20-30 MLB IP probably would predict a bright future for Joba. It would probably also turn up a lot of guys who got hurt and guys who disappointed.

But this may be a groundbreaking article -- it's on the sabermetrics of card collecting. Using sabermetrics to identify market inefficiencies in rookie cards. :-) There's got to be a market for this sort of thing. Seriously ... using MLEs, etc. to project future card worth ... somebody will buy it.

Also, if Randy Johnson could be the best pitcher in baseball year-in and year-out with a strong fastball and a slider waaaay out of the zone, I'm pretty sure Joba could at least be decent with that combo.

Whoever starts claiming that Chamberlain will surpass Clemens better hire himself a helluva good lawyer.

Also, if Randy Johnson could be the best pitcher in baseball year-in and year-out with a strong fastball and a slider waaaay out of the zone, I'm pretty sure Joba could at least be decent with that combo.

I'm pretty sure Randy Johnson's career does not say that about Joba. Or anything of substance, for that matter.

Joba Chamberlain pitched 1/3 of a Hall of Fame worthy season in relief. But it's only 24 innings, people. Here's a list:

Joba Chamberlain, 2007 (R, 21)
Brian Bruney, 2006 (24)
Matt Smith, 2006 (R, 27)
Paul Kilgus, 1993 (31)
Joel Johnston, 1991 (R, 24)
Bob Milacki, 1988 (R, 23)
Bruce Howard, 1964 (R, 21)
John Tsitouris, 1962 (26)
Foster Edwards, 1926 (R, 22)
George Sisler, 1916 (23)
Cliff Markle, 1915 (R, 21)
Earl Moore, 1908 (28)
Harry Coveleski, 1907 (R, 21)
Bob Spade, 1907 (R, 30)
Martin Glendon, 1903 (R, 26)

20-30 IP, ERA <= 1.00, (R[ookie], Age). There are a lot of reasons to prefer Joba Chamberlain's season to most of these guys' (K rate, K/BB ratio), but the only one in the Hall of Fame hit .340 over 15 seasons.

Anybody got a scouting report on the young Harry Coveleski? Cliff Markle had some rockin' minor league stats. I heard Paul Kilgus is thinking about a comeback.