Boy, the Indians must really think Lofgren is done if they're keeping five catchers and Andy Marte on the 40-man instead of him.

Jordan Brown? He's pretty much the quintessential AAAA 1B: high average, decent strikezone judgment, limited power. The Giants have a half dozen of these guys--I think Dan referred to them as the Dan Ortmeier cloud. And a ~750 OPS as a 24 year--old in AAA is not encouraging.

I'd be very surprised if any team took a flyer on him (if he had some positional versatility he might be useful, but he struggles to even handle the corner outfield). Heck, I'll be surprised if he winds up amassing more than 200 AB in the majors.*


*-Now bookmark this thread and watch him go on to win a few batting titles.

I like James Skelton. C Chris Gimenez could be a decent backup. IF Jeff Natale and Nate Spears are both high walk guys. Neal Frontz, JB Cox, Randor Bierd, and Chris Mason could all end up in someone's pen. Kevin Whelan could be a project. And I think Morlan will almost certainly be the first or second player taken. Can't believe he was unprotected, but I guess that speaks to the Rays' depth.

Is Florida's Sean West eligible? I can't believe they would leave someone that good unprotected if he was eligible.

The Mets never take anyone in the rule 5, and I doubt they're willing to waste a spot on the roster in 2009, but getting a free James Skelton would allow me to get over leaving Jesus Flores unprotected for no reason a few years ago.

I don't even really think the Mets should use a roster spot on him. I just wanted to complain about Flores.

Dan referred to them as the Dan Ortmeier cloud.

Ortmeier Cloud, simply to keep the dorky reference obvious.

Gimenez was protected by CLE (if he hadn't been - and I think he was a last minute decision - he'd likely make a good bench player from day one).

I liked Mason a lot more before this year (who didn't) - he looked awful in Durham, fatter and without the ability to locate I'd seen from him previously (Too bad, I keep hoping my alma mater will start producing players...). Lacks a dominant pitch.

Mayora: he's a possibility, but I'm not sure how you use him now. Not a base stealer, commits a lot of errors. Possibly a future 2B, but his build lacks projection and doesn't have quite enough patience. Poor man's Diory Hernandez, circa last year.

Natale can't play second in the bigs and doesn't hit enough for first. Should have a nice AA/AAA career, though.

Spears: did a nice getting on base in '08 (.394 for Tennessee), but doesn't have a history of being that great at it (in 4 prior full season seasons, top OBP was .358) - not speedy, or powerful, or anything special defensively. Tools are okay. Just don't see what he brings to the table in '09.

If people wanted Bierd, they could have claimed him on waivers (which would have been worth someone considering, IMO).

Sean West - I don't think he is (eligible).

Skelton: May have covered him in a different thread, but... here's another guy with a questionable build, though I think he's worth a peek with the right team. How well will his discipline hold up with his lack of power (it's not like his doesn't K often - he's just patient)? You would have to hide him this year, I think - his tactical use is questionable (though you could maybe use him elsewhere on the diamond in a pinch - he does seem pretty athletic).

I didn't dig Cox in college (insert ... joke here) and don't now - what does this guy do that well?

No opinion on Frontz.

Jordan Brown: I don't get it either - this guy isn't and won't be Wally Joyner.

EDIT: Dan, I loved the Ortmeier cloud joe, myself. And appreciate obviousness, also.

The Mets never take anyone in the rule 5, and I doubt they're willing to waste a spot on the roster in 2009, but getting a free James Skelton

looking at Skelton's minor league numbers suggests to me that he could be a newer version of this guy... whom I'm sure all met fans of a certain age recall fondly (or not so fondly)

I see this writer/site offers scouty reports (rather than scouting reports), by I don't see anything on that site about where they get their information on players. They link to a number of other prospect-oriented sites; if those are their source materials, shouldn't the writer be crediting them appropriately?

I've seen Igawa's name come up as a guy who's available. He's pitched well in AAA (just looking at his minor stats real quick, so I could be wrong here) and has 3/$12 left on his contract. I think some NL team could pick him up and find a reasonable bargain on a lefty swingman.

Hey Keith,

Nice to see some folks checking us out. I think one thing you strike on that is an important question is basically identifying the background and methodology sites use. New sites spring up every day and it seems a great number of them plagiarize from more established entities, which is in rather poor form. We do not do that. The thoughts are our own unless otherwise noted. We do not see ourselves as a conduit site, rather we see ourselves as synthesizing new discussion and analysis.

I (Jon Shepherd) am more or less a simple numbers guy. My baseball entries, which I use extensive citations when appropriate on this current site and the old Camden Depot site, focuses on relative worth and some thought experiments with batted ball data and pitch f/x, which probably borrows from some aspects of ecosystem modeling among other things. As my graduate research picks up, I have been a bit invisible on the site. Baseball background has been on the analytical side since I blew my arm out as a teenager. So, if you want salty baseball truths . . . I'm not sure I can provide them. I do more of the . . . oh, that is weird . . . what does this mean? . . . sort of articles. Numbers are never the end all, but they sometimes help characterize future performance and describe past events.

Nick will probably come up at some point today and discuss his methods. He wrote the Rule 5 piece. Nick does the bulk of the prospect work. I basically help with top tier guys, rating system criteria, and metric development. I know the Orioles system quite well, but others I am hazy on once I get past the top five guys or so. Nick keeps up to date with them and will gladly expand upon his practices.

Anyway, thanks for the interest. Perhaps, we should write up an about us page or something. If anyone has any questions about our techniques or just comments in general . . . you can always email us (camdendepot at gmail) because we do not always see these posts up here. We enjoy questions as it helps direct content. Sometimes what we focus on is not always something most people are interested in and if no one cares . . . there is no conversation. That is why we spend time on this . . . we enjoy the conversation.

Regards,
Jon

Igawa: 3/$12M doesn't sound like a bargain, nor is that a move to improve a club in some future season. He's decentish, merits another looksee, but not at that price.

Keith: What do you suggest for best practices - cite and don't overquote, make sure you don't divulge 'premium' content?
Also, would you mind discussing the mechanics behind Scarpetta's addition?

cite and don't overquote, make sure you don't divulge 'premium' content?

That seems like a good philosophy. And always link when you cite.

Anybody know anything about Ernesto Mejia? His power at Myrtle last year is intriguing to me, though obviously there are some flaws in his profile.

Apart from the lack of defense, speed, or plate discipline - what flaws? Let's just say he's no Jamie Romak.

"Apart from the lack of defense, speed, or plate discipline - what flaws? Let's just say he's no Jamie Romak."

Yeah, like I said, there are some holes. But he had 73 extra-base hits in a not-so-great power park in what was basically his first season as an everyday player (age-appropriate for the level, too). You don't see that every day, y'know?

Boy, the Indians must really think Lofgren is done if they're keeping five catchers and Andy Marte on the 40-man instead of him.

No, the real problem and its been that way for about 5 years now is that the Indians have been one of the best organizations at acquiring minor league depth. Shapiro hasn't done the best job since the Hafner trade at finding top of the line prospects until this year, but we seem to be always loaded in the B-/C+/C variety. Obviously, its hit or miss with those and that's why you see guys like Brian Barton, Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie(slightly different cases) leave the organization and do well. I'm a big Lofgren fan and while his last year or so has been awful, I think he's a good turnaround candidate with his stuff and the fact that from all accounts a few personal issues with family members played a part in his struggles.

I'd take Skelton in a heartbeat. His minor league numbers portend to me that he'd be an above-average backup catcher right now in the majors. Backup Cs probably hit .240/.300/.330 as a group (or worse) so what's the harm in giving that PT to a prospect? Skelton could also be used at 2B and in the OF, maybe even CF.

age 22 last year
A+ 212 AB .307/.468/.406
AA _85 AB .294/.425/.388

Skelton sure looks like a 2B, doesn't he?

I have a hard time believing the Cubs will leave Veal unprotected. Everything I've read leads me to believe the organization is very high on him.

James's stats for Veal out of the stretch are are eye-popping. The Cubs could probably use him as a left handed reliever in MLB right now.

EDIT: which is a comment on the left handed relief situation in Chicago more than anything else.

Anyone know Lorenzo Cain's signing date? It was sometime in April, but I can't tell whether it was before or after his b-day, which would swing his eligibility.

Keith,

Thanks for your observation/question (though curiously not submitted to our site, but rather posted publicly) and for raising this issue, as I'll make some changes to the site as a result.

My full-time job prevents extensive scouting trips, so I'm limited in what I can see live. The last live event I scouted was the Under Armor All-American game at Wrigley -- I was in town conducting interviews for my law firm that Monday. When I post scouting reports (complete with grading and a breakdown of the player's mechanics) I try to include the date on and medium through which the player was viewed (e.g. Gordon Beckham - March 2, 2008 at Oregon State (Film); Tim Beckham - Film). When possible I try to post the film itself, though I obviously cannot do so if it was a televised game I have recorded. The last two scouting reports I published were for Tazawa and Uehara, in each case posting accompanying videos that were used for my report.

For summaries (such as the Top Prospects List or Rule 5 piece) I simply don't have the time to do a full scouting report for each player -- this is a hobby, not a full-time gig for me. If that's "scouty", so be it, but I think it is a more conducive medium for facilitating discusion given my time restraints. I have a draft database and a prospect database (each using Access), each of which is consistently updated with notes from games I see. I never use another sources analysis of a player -- the floor, ceiling, projection labels are through my own analysis based on first hand knowledge, inference from statistics or "common knowledge" (e.g. Skelton's frame/size raises durability questions; Veal struggled to command his fastball). "Common knowledge" notes in the database come from various public sources, including free articles, free scouting reports and even site "chats". Common knowledge is only limited to facts about a player that are considered to be basic knowledge for writers/analysts in the field. A source's analysis of a player is never considered common knowledge (including likelihood to overcome obstacles, projection, etc.). I'll re-write this and post a page on the site laying this out and will include the link on any applicable article -- thanks for raising the issue.

With regards specifically to minor league prospects I see as many games as I can on MiLB.TV, as well as anything I can set to record on cable, and get out to MiL games in person when I can. I obviously read various internet and print sources, as well. With regards to the draft, last year's coverage was all via video or recorded game (as indicated in the various player scouting reports). This year I have two week-long scouting trips planned for the Spring and I attended the UA game (as mentioned above). That coverage won't start in earnest until January.

If you take issue with any of this or feel I should be doing things differently, please feel free to contact the site and let me know as much. I am a published author (dating back to my law school days) so I am certainly sensitive to issues surrounding properly crediting one's original work. I hope I have explained our process adequately.

As an aside, if you have indeed visited the site (and it sounds like you have) you'll note there are no adds or any other means of profit for Jon and I -- this is simply a hobby. We do, however, encourage our readers (AND EVERYONE PARTAKING IN THIS BBTF THREAD) to purchase bracelets to support Brian Roberts's "Brian's Bracelets" charity for the benefit of the University of Maryland's Children's Hospital. We do not profit from this in any way (other than being fortunate enough to interview Brian this past summer regarding the charity).

Happy holidays all; if you're traveling, travel safe.

Best,
-NJ

The deadline has already passed, Pops. Bruce Miles says the Cubs feel he won't last an entire season on another team's roster, IIRC.

Crap, I thought the deadline was early December.

I think the Cubs are wrong about that one, Colin.

This is especially disappointing because there are 4 open spots on the 40 man roster and any trades involving the Cubs are almost certain to involve a larger number of players outbound than inbound.

Is Florida's Sean West eligible?

No.

Some interesting adds:

San Diego added P Matt Bush (yes, him).
Houston added OF Brian Bogusevic (yes, him too) and SS Tommy Manzella.
Tampa Bay added P Dale Thayer, a veteran minor-league closer who would have been a six-year minor league FA.
Colorado added SS Chris Nelson, a former #1 pick who has had a checkered minor league career, and P Shane Lindsay, an Aussie who throws hard but who hasn't had consistent results and who was bumped back to low-A this year after an off-the-field fight in which he broke a hand.
Milwaukee added P Mark Rogers, another former first-rounder who hasn't pitched since 2006.

-- MWE

But he had 73 extra-base hits in a not-so-great power park

I didn't make it to Myrtle Beach this year, but it looks like something might have changed there; the Pelicans hit 153 HRs as a team, by far the most in the league, and had eight guys in double-digits.

-- MWE

Scholarship does not have "premium content."

Does sabermetrics want to be scholarship?

(Edit: it was unclear that my angle isn't to get sued, but rather to ignore "premium content." If scholarship isn't open source, it can't be taken seriously as scholarship.)

MWE,

Chris Nelson had a hamate fracture earlier this year, but hit very well in the AFL. I would have been very surprised if the Rockies hadn't added him.

Does sabermetrics want to be scholarship?

I don't think that it does (I don't see anyone clamoring for it), and subjectively, I don't see why it would. Besides, I would think, though there are certainly many people much more learned than me on this (yourself included), that the two are not mutually exclusive. "Respecting premium content" doesn't mean that you don't analyze the results of others, which is what I presume you mean when referencing scholarship, but it does mean that you don't quote long paragraphs, etc. Open source for the purposes of reproducibility and testability doesn't butt heads with recognizing that what you are rebutting was produced in a commercial environment that brings along some restrictions.

I'd take Skelton in a heartbeat. His minor league numbers portend to me that he'd be an above-average backup catcher right now in the majors.

ZiPS disagrees - plus that's not many PA above A ball.

Maas Haas of brewerfan.net says Cain isn't eligible.

Chris Nelson had a hamate fracture earlier this year, but hit very well in the AFL.

A lot of guys hit well in Arizona. I know that Nelson had a hamate fracture earlier, but he wasn't hitting well before it and his final numbers in the AFL were inflated by one game in which he was 4-5 with a triple and 2 HR; beyond that he was OK, but nothing special. I'm not surprised he was protected, but I don't see him as being a likely candidate for a major league career.

-- MWE

Maas Haas of brewerfan.net says Cain isn't eligible.

As far as I can see, Cain should be eligible. He turned 19 on April 13, 2005.

-- MWE

I have that Cain signed 4/24 (BA) - which would make him eligible, but Haas is pretty good at this stuff, so I dunno.
EDIT: BA is late on some dates - if he signed prior to the 13th, then he's not eligible.
EDIT2: His agent (supposedly) posts on brewerfan - says Cain ineligible due to last CBA - must be a date discrepancy.

I still think Eduardo Morlan could be a sleeper, and a good pick for someone, FWIW.

Cody Haerther is rule 5 eligible, also. Haerther was hurt in 2007 and had an awful year in 2008, but has a bit of pop and bats lefty. I don't think he'll get picked, and I'm not sure he should, but I've always kind of liked him.

-- MWE

Cain is not eligible. I asked someone who has the list of eligible players who confirmed this.

I bet Haerther gets tabbed, but not in the big league phase...

I still think Eduardo Morlan could be a sleeper, and a good pick for someone, FWIW.

So does everybody else... :)

Here's the most definitive statement of the rule that I can find:

All players on reserve lists are eligible except players on the Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible lists shall be subject to Rule 5 draft selection in accordance with the following:

* If 18 years old or younger on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Draft following the effective season of the player's original contract;
* If 19 years old or older on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fourth Rule 5 Draft following the effective season of the player's original contract;
* If a player is released and re-signed by the same club within one year, that player's Rule 5 eligibility is based on his original contract with that club;
* Any player who has previously been subject to a Rule 5 Draft is subject to all subsequent Rule 5 drafts;
* A club may designate any player who would otherwise not be subject to these rules as eligible for any Rule 5 Draft.

MLB has said that

this period begins to run with the applicable season in which the Player signs his first Major League or Minor League Contract, as opposed to the first effective season of the Player’s first contract.

which doesn't matter in Cain's case, because the "applicable season" was 2005 either way. Cain was 18 on June 5, 2004, so he is exempt until 2009.

-- MWE

What is the deal with that last case? Why would a club randomly designate one of its players as eligible for R5?

JuanGone,

I see what you're saying and agree with most of it, but there are a couple of pretty bizarre decisions on the Tribe's 40-man.

I had this exact same discussion last year with someone, but I don't understand what they're doing keeping Toregas on the 40. Yes, he's apparently a wonderful defensive catcher and a nice guy who helps old ladies cross the street, but he's 25, can't hit, and they're keeping Gimenez too. And with Santana looking like he'll be in Akron next year, it's not like the Indians will be scrambling for catching depth if they really need it.

Marte also makes very little sense to me. What could he possibly do in spring training to show he's not the 56 OPS+ vortex of suck we've seen for the past three years? If Andy Marte starts the season as the everyday third baseman in Cleveland, the Indians are pretty clearly not serious about winning in 2009. And he's not worth a spot on the 25-man if he's not playing every day...what good is a backup third baseman who can't hit and can't play anywhere else on the field?

I'm not as optimistic about Lofgren as you are, but if they really wanted to keep him, there were some pretty painless ways to do so. That said, I hope the kid can turn it around. He's had a really rough time on and off the field for the past year or two.

Jordan Brown? Meh. A really poor man's Sean Casey. Ross Gload with some extra plate discipline.

Thanks for the clarification on Cain, guys.

What I want to know now is where I can score a copy of that list.

What were the predictions on Uggla a few years ago?

Some interesting adds:

San Diego added P Matt Bush (yes, him)

Didn't his arm fall off or some such thing?

If someone took Igawa, the Yankees would be doing cartwheels.

Didn't his arm fall off or some such thing?

Bush had TJ surgery in 2007 and didn't pitch last year. He threw in instructional league this fall, with good results from what I've read. He's expected to start in low-A next year.

-- MWE

What I want to know now is where I can score a copy of that list.

I need to go through some notes and links, which I haven't had time to do yet. I hope I'll have something up by Friday.

-- MWE

ZiPS disagrees - plus that's not many PA above A ball.

Eh, I don't know where to find ZiPS for Skelton. His projection is ____?
And the average backup catcher does ____?

Sorry, rather than ZiPS, I meant zMLEs: .250/.341/.322. (FWIW, BPro is more optimistic, but I don't trust DTs for low level players.) Granted, that's last year - not an '09 projection. On the other hand, the spike in walks he had for Lakeland was dramatic, and probaly not sustainable with his k rate and lack of power (and, as I understand it, iffy bat speed).

What's key to your point is that I don't know what backup catchers hit last year, though I bet it exceeds .240/.300/.330. It looks like Dan S. would categorize Skelton's line as 'FAIR' (again, notwithstanding defense - which he would be very likely below average at (though not dramatically so).

I'm not saying he's not worth selection - I like him - but calling him an above average backup from day one seems extreme.