The Mets will come back to earth because they’re old, vulnerable and emotionally weak at some key positions, notably shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran. The Phillies know that with their superior character, a third reliable starter (to join Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer) can put them over the top.

This will be fun!

Wait - they don’t have any fans to begin with. Maybe 10,000 die-hards, tops.

We are few, but we are proud.

The prosecution will now speak.

"The Mets will come back to earth because they’re old, vulnerable and emotionally weak at some key positions, notably shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran."

** Explain, please?

"It has been proven that emotional weakness at SS and CF are killers to a team"

** Evidence for this proof?

"I just said so. And everybody knows it's true"

** The defense rests.

"The Mets are going overboard on the wonders of new manager Jerry Manuel..."

Are y'all gonna be positive, or is Jerry gonna have to cut a #####?

notably shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran.

ROFPML. lulz.

Seriously, Reyes and Beltran have to be becoming some of the more underrated players in baseball, despite the media market.

It's amazing how people can just throw filth onto paper and make a living off it.

The comments on Reyes and Beltran must have come from an emotionally weak writer. It takes one to know one.

The Mets will come back to earth because they’re old, vulnerable and emotionally weak non-white at some key positions, notably shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran.

Fixed, for what Jenkins really wanted to say.

The Phillies know that with their superior character, a third reliable starter (to join Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer) can put them over the top.

OK, they have "superior character." Me, I'd rather have more reliable starters. The way I see it, Blanton is an upgrade for the Phillies, but he is going to the worst possible environment for a flyball pitcher and he is not exactly having a banner season. In the long run, it makes me happy that the Phillies have an even worse minor league system than the Mets, and they have now drained it even more dry of talent than the Mets, for a guy who may help them only marginally in 2008.

Right now, I'd rather have the Mets' chances in 2008 (take the team with the better pitching staff), and going forward. It's kind of remarkable that the Mets have a better farm system than somebody, but it's a good thing it happens to be their chief rival in the division.

The Phillies know that with their superior character

tell that to Mrs. Myers

tell that to Mrs. Myers

Seriously.

This article is absurd. The Mets dropped 4 in 9th last night to completely battle back and win after their ace got shelled. That is not the sign of an emotionally weak team.

emotionally weak at some key positions,

??

If you're going take this Mets hijack in an anti-Phillies direction now, I see your Brett Myers and raise you a Ramon Castro.

If you're going take this Mets hijack in an anti-Phillies direction now, I see your Brett Myers and raise you a Ramon Castro.

ha! relax CA, we're just funin' around with the idea that either team is going to be better based on "character." If we were really going to rag on the Phillies, we would bring up the time Shane Victorino killed a hooker then paid off some New Jersey cops to cover it up.

Castro does bad things to other women, not his wife. that's emotionally weaker. plus, he's not white

The way I see it, Blanton is an upgrade for the Phillies, but he is going to the worst possible environment for a flyball pitcher and he is not exactly having a banner season.

Is Blanton really a FB pitcher? He has a 1.34 GB:FB ratio this year, career 1.29. I think league average is like 1.1 or something, so if anything he is a ground ball pitcher.

Blanton will probably benefit from changing leagues. The Phillies got better, but probably not a whole lot.

The way I see it, Blanton is an upgrade for the Phillies, but he is going to the worst possible environment for a flyball pitcher and he is not exactly having a banner season.

Just nitpicking, but Cupcakes isn't really a flyballer. League average GB rate in the AL is at 44% this season. In the NL also 44%. Cupcakes over his career:

40.9, in 8 innings
45.7
43.1
46.9
46.2

Feh.

Just like last year, the Mets and the Phillies are:

a) about even
b) not that good, but pretty good

They just take their fans on rollercoaster rides to get there. The Mets getting back into the lead is not surprising, given their core of stars. It will go down to the last few days.

Point taken re. Blanton not being a flyball pitcher unduly prone to the ugly that is CBP. If you assume he is a true-talent 100 ERA+ pitcher, or something pretty close to that, he certainly should be an improvement for the Phillies.

From the Fun With Numbers Dep't:

Between the Mets and Phillies, one of the two teams has scored 5.2 runs/game on the road so far this year; the other has scored 5.15 runs/game. I bet you can guess which has actually been the more productive neutral-field offense.

OTOH, the Phillies have been the much better road pitching staff so far this year. The Mets' pitchers have an ugly 4.63 ERA on the road, 10th in the NL, while the Phillies are a spiffy 4.03, third in the NL. Go figure.

A's have improved their team for the second half. They have about a gazillion pitchers in their system who are better than Joe.

Phillies, not so much. Obviously 2B is blocked in Philly for awhile, not sure if Cardenas can move to 3rd or something, but this trade is going to look real lopsided in about 2 years even if Outman and Spencer never do anything.

I still think there's like a 5% chance Beane takes some of all this extra stuff we have now, puts like a Henry Rodriguez cherry on top, and goes "Voila! Matt Holliday!" just for kicks.

And I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the true number of A's die-hards out there really was around 10,000. What we lack in numbers, we make up for with internet presence, though.

They have about a gazillion pitchers in their system who are better than Joe.

If that's true, then why wasn't one of those gazillion pitchers in the starting rotation all season long?

I still think there's like a 5% chance Beane takes some of all this extra stuff we have now, puts like a Henry Rodriguez cherry on top, and goes "Voila! Matt Holliday!" just for kicks.

Though we are few, at least we can make each other laugh.

If that's true, then why wasn't one of those gazillion pitchers in the starting rotation all season long?

My guess would be because those other pitchers didn't carry as much potential value in trade, and also didn't have multi-million dollar guaranteed contracts? It's hard to get value back for a guy making $6M a year when you've got him on the bench.

My guess would be because those other pitchers didn't carry as much potential value in trade, and also didn't have multi-million dollar guaranteed contracts? It's hard to get value back for a guy making $6M a year when you've got him on the bench.

It might also have something to do with Blanton finishing 2nd in the AL in IP and 6th in FIP last year, and that only one of their top pitching prospects (Gio) has reached AAA.

Blanton didn't have a longterm contract, did he? He's not as cheap as he was though, it's arbitration for the next 2 years (still cheaper than going free *Eaton* agent.

Sounds like you really miss Blanton, Danny. What he did last year is only relevant in how he projects going forward. He wasn't that good in 2006, and his strikeout rate is weak. I'm comfortable making one prediction:

1) Whoever replaces Blanton (gets most starts in his spot) will have a better ERA from here to the end of the season than Joe will in Philadelphia.

a better ERA

Not a better ERA+?

Speaking of emotionally weak, how is Blanton going to be able to handle playing in Philly if he keeps pitching the way he has done for most of this year?

Speaking of emotionally weak,

I thought you were going for a Joey B. joke.

Goodbye, Fat Joe!

How soon till the Gio era begins?

Just nitpicking, but Cupcakes isn't really a flyballer.

Was waiting for someone to point this out. Now, how long will I be waiting until someone points out that, this year, the Phils and their opponents are averaging 28.07 AB/HR at CBP and 29.2 AB/HR elsewhere? (And, similar to the Holliday discussion, keep in mind how skewed "elsewhere" is because Shea, Pro Player, and Washington are flyball graveyards.)

There are definitely some cheapies that go out to left, but let's not go overboard. Coors, pre-humidor, it ain't.

I thought you were going for a Joey B. joke.

Nah, I don't know him that well. However, I bet you could hide a six-pack of Budwieser in Blanton's skull. He looks like he could give Bochy a run for the money cap-size wise.

Sounds like you really miss Blanton, Danny. What he did last year is only relevant in how he projects going forward. He wasn't that good in 2006, and his strikeout rate is weak.

When you said the A's had a bazillion pitchers better than Cupcakes, I assumed you meant going forward.

Anyway, here are Blanton's FIP for the past few years (according to THT):

2005: 4.40 (29th in AL)
2006: 4.21 (17th in AL)
2007: 3.59 (6th in AL)
2008: 4.11 (26th in AL)

The average FIP in the AL this year is 4.12, which would put Blanton a bit better than an average starter. I'm not sure how Oakland's park affects that, though I think most of its run suppression is based on limiting BABIP.

To me, that looks like a starting pitcher who's a bit above average in preventing runs and who can eat innings. I'm not sure the A's have anyone currently at that level in the minors, though they may next year.

On edit: And, as rfloh says, that's not much of a bold bet without using ERA+. A 100 ERA+ is a 3.83 ERA for an Oakland pitcher this year, while it's 4.43 for the Phillies.

I thought you were going for a Joey B. joke.

Hmmm, your mother certainly seemed to think that I was emotionally (not to mention physically) strong enough the other night.

Hmmm, your mother certainly seemed to think that I was emotionally (not to mention physically) strong enough the other night.

What's your wife say about that, Mr. Family Man?

LOL...that was either brilliant or pathetic. I need some time to figure out which.

What's your wife say about that, Mr. Family Man?

"I really need the green card, but peeing on you makes me really uncomfortable."

On edit: And, as rfloh says, that's not much of a bold bet without using ERA+. A 100 ERA+ is a 3.83 ERA for an Oakland pitcher this year, while it's 4.43 for the Phillies.

That doesn't account for the difference in quality between the leagues. But ERA+ is fine. One of this group:

DiNardo
Gonzalez
Saarloos
Simmons
Mazzaro
Cahill
Anderson

will get the majority of the starts that would have gone to Blanton, and have a better ERA+ than Joe for the rest of the year. Counting the difference in leagues, this means the selected pitcher will be vastly better than Blanton the rest of the year.

I don't like it but it's so absolutely, annoyingly, obvious.

"Blanton didn't have a longterm contract, did he?"

Yes, he did not have a long-term contract. He is arbitration eligible in 2009 and 2010 and is making $3.7 million, this year.

Reason 1,532,431 baseball is hilarious and projections can tell you only so much:

Carlos Delgado has a higher OPS+ than Ryan Howard.

The Mets will come back to earth because they’re old, vulnerable and (cross-out)emotionally weak(/un-cross out) non-white at some key positions, notably shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran.

Fixed, for what Jenkins really wanted to say.

As pathetic a writer as Jenkins is -- this will probably go down as one of the 2-3 better columns of the year, sadly -- that is probably not what he wanted to say. He's a colossal ######### -- not quite a Mariotti or Plaschke, more like Paige on quaaludes -- but he doesn't need to be fitted for a hood.

Seriously, Reyes and Beltran have to be becoming some of the more underrated players in baseball, despite the media market.

I don't think this is possible for Reyes because you still hear the occasional announcer say he is the best player on the Mets (which obviously isn't true). I've heard that at least twice this month, once from the Phillies' and once from the Angels' broadcasting crew.

Beltran is probably underrated though.

I'm with Rally. Blanton's HR/fly has been under 10% each of the last 3 years. That is about to change. Combine that with a poor K rate, and you have a recipe for a mediocre pitcher.

Cardenas is a very nice return for that. Chase Utley might be the best player in the NL, but the Phils have traded two very fine players for not much on his account (Polanco and Cardenas). Compare that with the Twins handling of the Mauer/Pierzynski situation, and it is easy to see how the AL has established its dominance.

but the Phils have traded two very fine players for not much on his account (Polanco

Nobody forced them to play David Bell at 3b instead of Polanco. Also, saying that the Phillies traded Cardenas on the account of Utley is ridonkulous. That Cardenas is blocked doesn't mean he has to be traded for crap. He's a 20 year old at A+. It's going to be some time before he blocked in reality.

I agree. My point is that the Phillies have handled an organization positional surplus badly. No one forced them to do so.

That Cardenas is blocked doesn't mean he has to be traded for crap.

I wouldn't go so far as to call Blanton crap, but I don't think 2.5 years of him is worth 6 years of Cardenas. As Mike said, Phillies handled a surplus poorly. Pedro Feliz is an OK stopgap thanks to his glove - but I wonder if Cardenas could have moved over there.

Upside for Cardenas is another Utley, though probably about a 1% shot of him being that good. I think it's very likely that he winds up as an Adam Kennedy or better type.

I don't think this is possible for Reyes because you still hear the occasional announcer say he is the best player on the Mets (which obviously isn't true).

Agreed that it's not true, but he does lead the team in VORP this year so far. It's not a completely ridiculous claim.

I wouldn't go so far as to call Blanton crap, but I don't think 2.5 years of him is worth 6 years of Cardenas. As Mike said, Phillies handled a surplus poorly.

Poorly expressed on my part. I should have said that Cardenas doesn't have to be traded for what some view as crap. I actually think Cupcakes is going to do OK in Philly.

Upside for Cardenas is another Utley, though probably about a 1% shot of him being that good.

Huh? What? Over the last 3.5 seasons, Utley's averaged about 135 OPS+. That would be better than every HoF 2B since Hornsby and even with a reasonably decline phase, will probably be better than Sandberg, Biggio or Alomar (without the career length). His run is right up there with the best of Biggio and Sandberg ... and that's just on offense.

Chase Utley is as good a 2B as baseball has seen since Morgan was at his peak. Nobody has a 1% chance of becoming Utley.

If the kid has a 1% chance of being Dan Uggla with better defense, A's fans should dance in the aisles. :-)

Agreed that it's not true, but he does lead the team in VORP this year so far. It's not a completely ridiculous claim.

What I meant to say is that the occasional announcer will say he's the best player in the league and that's obviously not true.

I don't think this is possible for Reyes because you still hear the occasional announcer say he is the best player on the Mets (which obviously isn't true).

If he wasn't having a bad year defensively, and was playing defense at his usual levels, he probably is the best player on the Mets. Including D, Beltran is probably the best. Offensively, from BPro,
EQA:
Wright, 305,
Reyes, 298
Beltran, 297

but, Runs Above Position:
Reyes, 25.1
Wright, 18.3
Beltran, 16.3

Chase Utley is as good a 2B as baseball has seen since Morgan was at his peak. Nobody has a 1% chance of becoming Utley.

Walt,

It was an off the cuff remark, and one that I didn't think was a big deal. After doing some research, I fully stand by it.

I'm making an assumption that Cardenas is at least good enough to play everyday at some point in the majors. Of course he could top out at AAA and get nothing more than a cup of coffee in the bigs, but I think he's a real good prospect and this is unlikely.

In the history of baseball there have been fewer than 500 players to play 100 or more 2B games in any season in the big leagues. I count 473 through 2005 (the version of the Lahman I have on the computer I'm typing on). So pick the top 1% of that group, who I'm going out on a limb and saying Cardenas will belong to, and you get the top 5 2B ever - Hornsby, Morgan, Collins, Biggio, Sandberg, Whitaker, Utley, or whoever your list is.

Cardenas is 20 years old and hitting 309/374/444 in the Florida State league. Utley did not have impressive minor league stats until age 24 in AAA, when he hit 323/381/517. The year before in the same league he hit only 263/329/461. If you think Cardenas has no chance to be UTLEY, then you probably would have thought that Utley, in 2004, had no shot to become UTLEY. But somehow, he did.

I'm not saying Cardenas will be that good, it is very unlikely and that's why I put the 1% figure out there. But he's got a chance.

And yeah, the chance that a strong prospect like Cardenas becomes a superstar is a good reason why you shouldn't trade them for 2 years of a slightly bargain priced back of the rotation innings eater.

So the Brewers are rumored to be interested in Street. What areas are considered holes that the A's want to fill in the next couple of years? Assuming that the Big 3 of Escobar, Gamel and Jeffress are untouchable, is there a combination of Brewer prospects that would work? And if the Brewers threw in Weeks and got Ellis back, what kind of deal would look good there?

#54

I'm not sure taking Rickie in exchange for Ellis makes sense for the A's. Ellis was a type B at the end of 2007. Of the players who were Bs, he had the 2nd highest rating, behind Casey Blake. Guys who were As: Michael Young, Miguel Tejada, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Mike Lowell, Alex Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Guillen, Troy Glaus, Melvin Mora. There are some guys behind Ellis who are having good seasons, like Kinsler, Huff. Still, Ellis has a decent shot of ending up as a Type A. Even if he doesn't, the A's still net a supplemental first round pick if they offer arb and he walks.

Rickie will already have 3 years of service time by the end of this year. His offense isn't anything special, and his D is poor. If the A's need a stopgap until either Cardenas or Jemile Weeks is ready, and they don't trust Eric Patterson, they could always sign a stopgap like Grudzielanek.

The A's biggest holes are at 3b and SS.

Street to the Brewers?

So the Brewers are rumored to be interested in Street.

Hardricourt is speculating (although it could be, and probably is, nothing at all, certainly):

I just got a call from a contact in Brevard County who told me that word was circulating there that outfielder Darren Ford had been involved in a trade for Oakland closer Huston Street.

Then, Ford was pulled from Brevard's lineup before its game against Clearwater. Players often are pulled from the lineup when they've been put into a trade. The Brewers did the same thing with Matt LaPorta in Huntsville before trading him to Cleveland in the CC Sabathia deal.

The fact that Ford was pulled from the lineup makes me believe something could be up. He has no injury that I know of.

GM Doug Melvin is here with the club, so I'll go ask him if it's true and get back to you.

Obviously Ford alone wouldn't do it.

Chase Utley is as good a 2B as baseball has seen since Morgan was at his peak. Nobody has a 1% chance of becoming Utley.

Saying that a good second base prospect has a 1% chance of becoming an elite player hardly seems controversial.

Doesn't seem to be Street.

The Brewers definitely have some kind of trade in the works but I was just told by a club source that it is not for Oakland closer Huston Street (who is pitching badly by the way).

More of a minor move:

Whatever deal the Brewers are working on, I'm told there is no plan to announce it before tomorrow. And I'm now getting word that it might be with the Giants.

If Class A Brevard County centerfielder Darren Ford is the only player involved, it would be a minor deal for either a bench player (Ray Durham?) or a relief pitcher (Jack Taschner?).
...
I'll follow up later today if I hear anything but this might not break until tomorrow. And it might turn out to be a minor deal. Oakland closer Huston Street blew another save today in New York and I heard the Brewers' scouting reports on him are not good.