"You tell Derek that the first 3,000 are easy.”

Also tell Derek to enjoy his Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

Wow, there's a keystone combo WORSE defensively than Jeff Kent and Angel Berroa?

Could someone tell me where you can find the 2008 plus/minus numbers?

He said: “You tell Derek that the first 3,000 are easy.”

The next 850 are damned hard ...

the last 400 or so require a manager dumb enough to play a 1B who can't hit.

In fairness to Rose ... he was a tough SOB and, even chasing the hit record, the man still took his walks. And for ages 43-44, he put up as good or better an OPS+ (99) than the 2008 versions of Millar, Konerko, Garko, Gload, Kotchman, Broussard, Shelton, Barton, Sexson, Tracy, Helton, Bowker, and Aurilia.

Good lord the AL 1B have sucked. Add in DH or DH-related playing time for guys like Gomes, Stewart, Monroe, Hafner, Sheffield, Butler, Guillen, Anderson, Rivera, Matthews and Vidro and that 43-44 year-old Pete Rose would still be starting somewhere in the 2008 AL.

I'd imagine getting the first hit is the hardest.

I wish I’d had a camera at that moment because the look of pure disgust on Pete’s face was beyond priceless, it was worth more words than every blog post I’ve ever written. He said, “Come on.”

....Ummm...

nope, not enough, still can't root for Jeter...

Jeter ... Rose ... Lobotomy ... Castration ..

Life's theoretical choices are worse than its actual ones.

Yankee fans have come to accept Jeter's lack of range. What is frustrating is Cano's defensive struggles this season. Last year, he played second base so well that some predicted he would win a Gold Glove within the next year or two. So it's not just his hitting that has regressed this year, but also his defense. The Yankees have many objectives for next season, including the finding of a new first baseman, a new center fielder, and more pitching. Straightening out Cano should be near the top of that list.

Could someone tell me where you can find the 2008 plus/minus numbers?

I pay money ($9 for three months) for them at Bill James Online.

Jeter is already in pretty select company - one of only three shortstops with more than 2500 hits and a .300 career average. Add a requirement of at least 200 career HRs and he stands alone. Can he pass Rose's hit total? No, and it's likely a team will never again play as weak-hitting a 1st baseman as Rose was while collecting his last 480 hits. Jeter's best case scenario is more likely in the range of 2nd (Tris Speaker - 3514), 3rd (Carl Yastrzemski - 3419) or 4th (Paul Molitor - 3319) in American League history.

it's likely a team will never again play as weak-hitting a 1st baseman as Rose was while collecting his last 480 hits.

Why do I bother to write? :-) At ages 43-44, Rose put up a 99 OPS+. This season, there have been 13 players receiving substantial playing time at 1B who were that bad or worse plus another 11 guys receiving substantial time at DH. The average AL 1B this year is at about 108; the average DH about 106.

For a while Yount was ahead of Rose's pace into his 30's.

Then the shoulder finally gave, he couldn't turn on a good fastball and his offense cratered.

Ya'know, Alex is so good and keeps himself in such fantastic shape he could be playing when he's 45.

Projection?

Jeter's 34 and having his worst season offensively since his rookie year. He has just over 2500 hits. I'd be a thousand times more worried about him getting to 3000 than I would be about him getting to 4000.

Ya'know, Alex is so good and keeps himself in such fantastic shape he could be playing when he's 45.

I have often wanted him to play until through his age-45 season (2021), since doing so would mean he would break the record for "seasons played" (assuming he doesn't miss an entire season at some point due to injury). I think it is entirely plausible too--his current contract takes him up through his age-41 season, and if he is still producing at a reasonable level then, I can see him snaggling another multiyear deal. And then if he is close to Rose's record, I can see someone signing him for the PR boost.

Projection-wise, he will be around 2400 hits at the end of this season, his age-32 one (essentially tying him with Yount, who had 2407). So getting nearly 1900 hits in 13 years would require about 145 hits per season. Since becoming a regular in 1996, he has averaged around 180 per year with a low of 143.

If only AROD loved baseball as much as Pedroia.

Pedroia should end up with about 4700 hits by my reckoning.

His Rodness will retire at age 41 after playing 1b due to immobility issues and with a line of .241/.307/.389. He will have 3667 hits. That is all.

Jeter's 34 and having his worst season offensively since his rookie year. He has just over 2500 hits. I'd be a thousand times more worried about him getting to 3000 than I would be about him getting to 4000.

It doesn't matter how much he sucks going forward, barring injury he is going to get to 3000 hits. He may be having his worst season, but he still has 159 hits and is on pace for 183. He is hitting .294 and can still hit for decent average. Even if he just averages 150 hits a year for the next 3 years, he's basically there. If he get gets hurt and starts missing some time, but is within 100 hits of 3000 heading into 2012, he's going to play, even if just part time, until he gets there.

It would take a catastrophic career ending injury for Jeter not reach 3000 hits.

.... Even if he just averages 150 hits a year for the next 3 years, he's basically there. If he get gets hurt and starts missing some time, but is within 100 hits of 3000 heading into 2012, he's going to play, even if just part time, until he gets there.

It would take a catastrophic career ending injury for Jeter not reach 3000 hits.

My problem with this is that 150 a year for the next three years is nowhere near a given, even without catastrophic injury. While I understand that the BBRef comps aren't the greatest things since grilled cheese, it's very interesting that of the 8 retired guys most like Jeter, ONE got more than 315 hits from his age 35 season on. We're talking some terrific ballplayers, too: Roberto Alomar, Frisch, Trammell...

A career grinding to a halt between 34 and 37 isn't an oddity, it's the norm. It's life and it's baseball. Jeter's old, he's clearly in decline, and his glove surely isn't going to save him. A .270/.310/.330 line isn't going to keep him in the league, and after SS he has no position. I think it's more likely than not he'll limp to the end of his contract. maybe get a one year deal from some club like the Pirates who pray he can turn it around, he'll hit around .200 for half a year, then retire with his 2,887 hits to Scarlett Johannsen.

A .270/.310/.330 line isn't going to keep him in the league, and after SS he has no position.

He would play as a regular for 2-3 seasons doing that just off his name alone. I'd put the over/under on his career hits at about 3,500. And I'd take the over. Barring injury the rest of his career is going to look a lot like Craig Biggio's last seven or eight seasons, only better.

then retire with his 2,887 hits to Scarlett Johannsen.

Why would ScarJo want a washed up retiree? He'll have to settle for being #2 to A-Rod... with Cindy Lauper.

.306/.369/.419 174 Hits

Maybe he's not quite ready to just go hit .270