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Saturday, December 12, 2009

Joe Posnanski Blog: Royals Projected Lineup By OPS+

Bzzzz! I haven’t seen so much sub-100…since Heyward got the band back together!

Leading off and playing left field: 106 (David DeJesus).
Batting second and playing second: 74 (Chris Getz … I just have a bad feeling about them hitting him second).
Batting third and playing first base: 124 (Billy Butler).
Hitting cleanup and DHing: 80 (Jose Guillen … he could be in RF too).
Batting fifth and playing third: 86 (Alex Gordon … you hope he will improve on this).
Batting sixth and playing center field: 76 (Willie Bloomquist … the Royals don’t have an actual center fielder at the moment. You could put Mitch Maier’s 78 here. I suspect the Royals will get someone).
Batting seventh and catching: 72 (Jason Kendall).
Batting eighth and playing DH/OF: 68 Josh Fields (I’m cheating a little bit here here … this could be Alberto Callaspo’s 114. But I’m pretty certain Callaspo will not be with the Royals in 2010 … and Fields will get at-bats).
Batting ninth and playing shortstop: 68 (Yuniesky Betancourt).

Looking like another pennant in the American City of Avenues and Fountains.

Repoz Posted: December 12, 2009 at 01:16 PM | 19 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Projections, Kansas City

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1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 12, 2009 at 01:58 PM (#3410701)

I know times are different, with free agency, more money, more teasm, blah, blah. But, in their third year of existance, the Royals were 85-76, finished 2nd in their division, and had the following lineup:

C - Jerry May, OPS+ of 92
1B - Gail Hopkins, 126
2B - Cookie Rojas, 117
3B - Paul Schaal, 128
SS - Freddie Patek, 97
LF - Lou Pinella, 93
CF - Amos Otis, 124
RF - Joe Keough, 83

Their top five starting pitchers were all under 30 years of age, made 120 combined starts, and had ERA+ of 115, 127, 128, 100, and 93. Their top three relievers had ERA+ of 134, 119, and 198.

This was as a third-year frnachise, with very few of their players being from their still-growing farm system at the time.

The current Royals have finished above .500 once since 1993. They have finished higher than 4th exactly three times since 1994 - and their win total in those three seasons was 70-74, 72-89, and 83-79.

What did they know in 1971 that they can't even begin to approximate in in 2010?

2. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 12, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3410705)

Why won't Callaspo be with the Royals? Is it because he plays for the minimum and was arguably their best position player in 2009?

3. Downtown Bookie

Posted: December 12, 2009 at 03:11 PM (#3410717)

What did they know in 1971 that they can't even begin to approximate in in 2010?

How to rip-off other teams in trades?

They got Amos Otis (and Bob Johnson) from the Mets for Joe Foy.

They got Freddie Patek, Jerry May and Bruce Dal Canton from the Pirates for the above mentioned Bob Johnson, Jim Campanis and Jackie Hernandez.

They got Lou Piniella from the Seattle Pilots for for John Gelnar and Steve Whitaker.

They got Cookie Rojas from the Cardinals for Fred Rico.

If you want to jump forward a couple of years, at the end of the 1972 season the Royals would get Hal McRae and Wayne Simpson from the Reds for Roger Nelson and Richie Scheinblum.

So it seems to me that the main thing the Royals of that period had going for them was that they had mastered the art of being on the right side of a lopsided trade.

Of course, all good things must come to an end: at the end of the 1973 season the Royals traded Lou Piniella and Ken Wright to the New York Yankees for Lindy McDaniel. You can't win 'em all.

DB

4. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: December 12, 2009 at 03:36 PM (#3410729)

I remember when people were optimistic about Dayton Moore. An up-and-comer from the Braves oranization!

Sigh.

5. jwb Posted: December 12, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3410739)

Somewhere in the western suburbs of Chicago, a dermatologist reads this and sheds another tear.

6. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 12, 2009 at 04:19 PM (#3410745)

Jesus christ. It's not fair to the fine barbecuing people of Kansas City.

7. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:06 PM (#3410765)

Why won't Callaspo be with the Royals? Is it because he plays for the minimum and was arguably their best position player in 2009?

I thought that was the most interesting part of Joe's post. He's convinced Callaspo won't play for the Royals next year. I'd be interested to see him expand on that point. I know the front office hated Callaspo's defense last year, and not for no reason, but trading or releasing him still strikes me as remarkably foolish, even for the Royals.

8. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:10 PM (#3410769)

They've been shopping Callaspo most of the offseason. I suppose the easy answer is that they ain't contending this year and he has the most value to a team willing to give prospects.

9. ValueArbitrageur Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:12 PM (#3410771)

Defense and pitching wins championships. I think the 2010 Royals should refuse to hit and just stay in the field to make that point.

10. Steve Treder Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:16 PM (#3410773)

How to rip-off other teams in trades?

Well, yeah. They had Cedric Tallis pulling off perhaps the greatest run of trading wins ever achieved. Tallis was a completely brilliant GM.

11. Sam M. Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3410792)

They got Amos Otis (and Bob Johnson) from the Mets for Joe Foy.

Oh, just shut up, will you? I'm trying to grade exams here, and you mention Joe Foy. Next thing up is going to be Jim Fregosi, then Dan Norman, and I'll just be handing out D's left and right.

12. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: December 12, 2009 at 05:57 PM (#3410794)

Oh, just shut up, will you? I'm trying to grade exams here, and you mention Joe Foy. Next thing up is going to be Jim Fregosi, then Dan Norman, and I'll just be handing out D's left and right.

Boy, all those kids who were expecting playoff clinching endorphin-fueled midterm A's in 2007 must have been really pissed when grades came back.

13. Downtown Bookie

Posted: December 12, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3410798)

They got Amos Otis (and Bob Johnson) from the Mets for Joe Foy.

Oh, just shut up, will you? I'm trying to grade exams here, and you mention Joe Foy. Next thing up is going to be Jim Fregosi, then Dan Norman, and I'll just be handing out D's left and right.

The most incredible thing, in my mind, about the Amos Otis for Joe Foy trade, is that one year earlier, prior to the 1969 season, the Mets could have gotten Joe Torre from the Braves, but Otis would have been part of the package that the Mets would have given up, and Mets GM Johnny Murphy declared that Amos Otis was untouchable (which led one local New York sportswriter to remark: "If the Mets have so many untouchables, how come they always finish in the second division?")

DB

14. Bob Tufts Posted: December 12, 2009 at 07:45 PM (#3410868)

It pains me as someone who briely played in KC....If someone ran a local Wal-Mart store in this manner, David Glass would have removed the franchise's right to operate.

15. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: December 12, 2009 at 08:24 PM (#3410894)

someone who briely played in KC

You'll always be able to say that you were traded for Atlee Hammaker. :)

16. A One-Shoed Craig K Posted: December 12, 2009 at 08:29 PM (#3410898)

Oh, just shut up, will you? I'm trying to grade exams here, and you mention Joe Foy. Next thing up is going to be Jim Fregosi, then Dan Norman, and I'll just be handing out D's left and right.

Ooh, you're messing around on the internet when you should be grading!

Just kidding. Which brings up something interesting I've noticed about myself: if I decide that I have to write a paper due in a day or two, no more screwing around, don't even OPEN firefox, then nothing's getting done and I'm staring at a half a page of an introduction and little else after a while. I have to keep something open to glance at to keep my mind going and think. Guess I'm not the only one like that.

17. Bob Tufts Posted: December 12, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3410914)

and Leibrandt....

18. Something Other Posted: December 12, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3410927)

Mets GM Johnny Murphy declared that Amos Otis was untouchable (which led one local New York sportswriter to remark: "If the Mets have so many untouchables, how come they always finish in the second division?")

What Murphy really meant was that there were a number of players on the Mets that a proper Hindu would not associate with. Hence the widespread confusion.

Things got tricky in the dugout after a home run.

19. ColonelTom Posted: December 12, 2009 at 09:50 PM (#3410945)

Well, former Brave Kelly Johnson was just non-tendered - odds that he ends up in KC as their starting left fielder, with DeJesus moving to CF? The scary thing is that would be a major upgrade.

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Joe Posnanski Blog: Royals Projected Lineup By OPS+

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