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Or, maybe he just thought it really was the correct move. I have seen Robbie Alomar and Carlos Beltran (two players oft lauded for their instincts/intelligence) sac bunt of their own accord in ridiculous situations.
Reading a self-conscious myth-building exercise into that one move seems a little crass. And also seems to be playing to comfortably into the stathead anti-Jeter snarkoskeptic stereotype, for a good writer, that is.
agreed. what a bunch of nothing. only comment i've read attributed to Jeter is, basically, 'all me, and it was dumb'. the bunt sign was ON prior to strike two - chalk it up to a mental fart.
"I could be wrong, but Jeter seemed to have a really self-satisfied smirk on his face, even after strike three. I got the sense he was very proud of being willing to bunt there."
you're probably wrong there, Tom
Either that, or "Jesus, you can't even lay down a goddam bunt???!!!!" Jeter's problem here was simple overconfidence in his bunting ability.
My gripe with bunting is twofold. The statistical one is known to everyone, at least here on BTF. But the other problem is that so few players are any good at it. They don't keep counts on this, but I'd bet anything that at most, one out of three bunt attempts succeed.
If a manager wants to make the bunt a part of his team's repertory, he should at least drill his players to the point where they can put it down at least two thirds of the time. Instead, what you often get is two pitiful foul balls and a hitter who's now facing a two strike count---and check out the percentages on that.
Doesn't sound like he's being too hard on himself there. He seems to think the only thing he did wrong was not get the bunt down fair.
Whatever he chose to do in that situation, Jeter-fellating would have occurred because the myth already exists.
I don't think it's a case of self-conscious myth-making. I think it's a case of Derek Jeter hearing for years that he plays the game the right way, and eventually starting to believe that whatever Derek Jeter does, that must constitute playing the game the right way.
Maybe he was just trying to make up for his failure in getting the down when it was actually called by his manager - the "trying too hard" defense. But in doing so he turned failure into double-failure. He took a risk and it didn't work out. It would have been interesting to see the reaction had he succeeded - would McCarver continue to say it was a bad play; would Giraldi or any of his teammates call him out publicly for taking that chance even with a fairly benign "he is lucky it worked out" jibe.
For a good bunter, it is probably higher than that, at least with the infield playing back.
Dave Cameron, as noted in the article, argues that it was not that bad a move, because it increased the chance of scoring one extra run, and with Mariano on the mound, a 3 run lead is pretty much a lock.
For a good bunter, it is probably higher than that, at least with the infield playing back.
Which is why I don't think that it was all that bad a move for Jeter, even with two strikes. But most players aren't Derek Jeter, and the great majority of bunt attempts I've seen result in foul balls, which do nothing but work the count in reverse.
I'll bet he was thinking "get the bunt down"
And, agreed, that Jeter play was a cockup. There's a big, fat, three-mile-wide line between attempting to bunt runners over with a 2 run lead and zero out, and trying it with two strikes! (when you have the kind of Hall of Fame talent Jeter wields in his bat.)
In the first situation, it's about 99% a bad use of a plate appearance (but there's always 1% in every crowd, you can make the case if you take a really deep breath.)
With two strikes, it's worse than wearing white after labor day.
I've only seen a detailed report on this once (in one of the old Stats Scoreboards). You're not quite right Andy -- the best bunters were getting the bunt in play just under half the time. The was one huge outlier. Tony Gwynn got his bunts down just over 75% of the time.
As in all things relating to making contact Gwynn is of no particular value in evaluating other players.
No idea where Jeter fits in, but I'd guess he puts it in play 40-45% of the time. And I know he beats out a lot of them. Or at least he used to.
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