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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Joe Posnanski: This Year’s Gold Glove Ripoff

“I took one look at you
That’s all I meant to do”

Yes, with UZR, Torii AND Adam Jones scored negative numbers … again, you might call total bull on that. And I understand, I really do. You might simply know, in your heart, that Hunter is still as great as he ever was out there and that Adam Jones is a defensive dynamo. But now I’m going to show you the Dewan plus/minus and the UZR for another outfielder. You already know who this is: Franklin Gutierrez.

Dewan: +43
UZR: +29.1

Do me a favor, no matter how you may feel about defensive numbers: Just look at those again. Compare them. Please? Everyone here knows I love these stats, but even if you think they are irreparably flawed — could they be THAT WRONG? His plus minus is SIXTY THREE PLAYS better than Adam Jones. His UZR suggests he saved more than THIRTY RUNS more Torii Hunter. Could they be that wrong?

Well, obviously, I don’t think so. I spent some time watching these players … I ended up watching quite a few Seattle games last year. There is little doubt in my mind that Frankllin Gutierrez was every bit as good as the numbers suggest, and that he was a much, much, much, much better defensive player than any of the three, including Ichiro who I think had a terrific defensive year. That’s not a knock. Gutierrez had a monster defensive year. A near-legendary defensive year.

...I really feel like the Gutierrez snub is a huge blight on this year’s Gold Glove award. He had a defensive year for the ages. It seemed impossible to miss. But he’s a limited offensive player (not bad but limited), and he played out in Seattle (and maybe the voters didn’t want to choose TWO Mariners), and this was his first year in center field (he had been an utterly brilliant defensive right fielder in Cleveland). I appreciate that the Gold Glove is a flawed award and always has been, but it is for now THE award for defense, and I really wish they had gotten this one right. I think they should have gotten it right.

Repoz Posted: November 11, 2009 at 08:34 AM | 21 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsNY YankeesSeattle

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   1. Tricky Dick  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 09:03 AM (#3384768)
Hey, Adam Everett never won a Gold Glove. He had some "near legendary" defensive seasons, according to UZR and the Fielding Bible.
   2. Cyril Morong  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 09:03 AM (#3384769)
At least MARK BUEHRLE won. Here is what John Dewan said about him:

"Buerhle has defensive chops, but his ability to hold runners is legendary. In the last four years he's allowed a total of 15 stolen bases, picked off 14 baserunners, and thrown over to first—only to have the runner break for second and be thrown out—16 times."

Only 15 SBs with A.J. Pierzynski as his catcher?! In 4 years?! Yes, I am a White Sox fan but that has nothing to do with this post:)
   3. chisoxcollector (formerly Big Hurts So Good)  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 09:43 AM (#3384807)
Yeah, I was disappointed to see that Joe didn't even mention Buehrle in his post.
   4. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:19 AM (#3384909)
I could be misremembering, but this seems like one of the worst Gold Glove classes I can recall.
   5. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:21 AM (#3384915)
I could be misremembering, but this seems like one of the worst Gold Glove classes I can recall.

You're misremembering. This is not a particularly egregious group.
   6. Shooty Did Not Kill McGurk  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:22 AM (#3384917)
I could be misremembering, but this seems like one of the worst Gold Glove classes I can recall.

I've been thinking this, too. There aren't many guys who wow me with the glove right now. Does anyone else have this impression?
   7. sunnyday2  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:38 AM (#3384932)
Carlos Gomez says hi.
   8. Kiko Sakata  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:52 AM (#3384954)
I could be misremembering, but this seems like one of the worst Gold Glove classes I can recall.


Do you mean that the voters did a worse job than usual at identifying the best fielders by position? Because, if so, I'd agree with Dewey in #5. The results here are about par for the course. Somebody posted UZR for the AL winners and Polanco and Longoria deserved their awards. Teixeira's not a bad choice - UZR doesn't like him, but they have in the past and subjective impressions were that he was great, Ichiro's what he's always been, very good, albeit for a right fielder, Mauer probably deserved his. If you think holding on baserunners is part of "fielding" then Buerhle absolutely deserved his. Jeter didn't deserve his, but given that this is his 4th win, it's hard to see that as historically egregious. I definitely agree with Pos, et al. that Gutierrez is a big miss, but those happen (e.g., Chase Utley has never won a Gold Glove, Adam Everett never won a Gold Glove).

If you mean what Shooty seems to suggest in #6, that fielders are worse than fielders of the past, I kind of get that sense, too. I think that's how Derek Jeter has managed to win 4 Gold Gloves, there's no Omar Vizquel or Mark Belanger or Ozzie Smith playing out there today, at least not with the reputation that those guys had.
   9. Shooty Did Not Kill McGurk  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:58 AM (#3384961)
If you mean what Shooty seems to suggest in #6, that fielders are worse than fielders of the past, I kind of get that sense, too. I think that's how Derek Jeter has managed to win 4 Gold Gloves, there's no Omar Vizquel or Mark Belanger or Ozzie Smith playing out there today, at leats not with the reputation that those guys had.

I don't mean that fielders are worse, just that it seems there are fewer great defenders, whatever I mean by that. Maybe it's because players are bigger today and so less mobile? Teams aren't willing to carry the all-field, no-hit guys if they can help it? I don't know. It's just an impression I have.
   10. Kiko Sakata  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 12:02 PM (#3384966)
I don't mean that fielders are worse, just that it seems there are fewer great defenders


That's what I meant too. Yeah, I share that assessment. I think it probably has to do with offensive levels. As you say, teams are less willing to carry all-field, no-hit guys. I wonder how much that cycles on itself, i.e., the extent to which the lack of elite defenders is part of WHY offensive levels are high. On the other hand, I also wonder how much of it is the emergence of new stats - back in the day, would we have just accepted that Torii Hunter was an elite defender because he keeps winning Gold Gloves and hence have viewed him as a "great defender"?
   11. Blackadder  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3385001)
Tango and others pointed out on his blog that Gutierrez also had amazing clutch numbers this year. If you like WPA, and buy his defensive numbers/reputation, he may have been more valuable than Mauer!
   12. Dave Spiwak  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 12:50 PM (#3385047)
Figgins had the #2 UZR among third basemen in the AL. Is he really that good? I watched maybe a dozen Halos games this year, and I don't know. Maybe it's just tough to tell because it's weird seeing a little guy play third base.
   13. Let the bears pay the bear tax, I pay the Homer ta  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 02:03 PM (#3385173)
One of my least favorite ideas ever is a quote I read ages ago (which is why the source escapes me). It went like this:

"If he hit better, he'd win a Gold Glove."

Gold Gloves are perhaps the most flawed, overrated award in sports.
   14. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 09:57 PM (#3385793)
Sorry, I meant that this class doesn't stand up to past winners. Maybe I mistakenly think players of the past were better than they were because we don't have all the data we do now, and those guys won a lot of their awards on reputation.
   15. Tom Nawrocki  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 10:07 PM (#3385799)
There's a saying that players start winning Gold Gloves a year after they deserve to, but they make up for it by getting one at the end of their career that they don't deserve. Franklin Gutierrez will probably be in good position to win one next year, since there's no dominant CF in the AL at this point. Tulowitzki ought to start winning them one of these years, too.
   16. villainx  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 10:37 PM (#3385810)
Is there an internet equivalent of what is done with MVP and HoF?
   17. Kiko Sakata  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 10:42 PM (#3385813)
Is there an internet equivalent of what is done with MVP and HoF?


The Fielding Bible does something. I think we had a thread on it. The thread was probably shorter than the Gold Glove ones because there's less to snark about.
   18. Matt Welch  Posted: November 11, 2009 at 11:17 PM (#3385820)
Figgins had the #2 UZR among third basemen in the AL. Is he really that good?

He was phenomenal this year. Made a few errors, but got to everything. And he's been pretty good (to the naked eye) for at least two years.
   19. Mister High Standards  Posted: November 12, 2009 at 12:27 AM (#3385838)

His plus minus is SIXTY THREE PLAYS better than Adam Jones.


This can pass the smell test. Both pitching staff were flyballers to the extreme with the same û. 39.7 and 39.6%.

Franklin played 153 games and had 445 putouts, which indicates that if Jones played CF in those 153 games he would have roughly 382? That isn't reasonable considering Jones had 345 putouts in 35 less games. It seems very likely that Franklin is a better defender, but those +43 and +29 just aren't reasonable.
   20. Yardape  Posted: November 12, 2009 at 12:41 AM (#3385843)
Gold Gloves are perhaps the most flawed, overrated award in sports.


Probably not as rated, since it's hockey, but the NHL's Selke Award (best defensive forward) is about as bad.
   21. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes  Posted: November 12, 2009 at 01:32 AM (#3385855)
If you think holding on baserunners is part of "fielding" then Buerhle absolutely deserved his.


Then Buerhle absolutely deserved his.
I hate it when pitchers throw over for no reason, but I love it when it's a play.
It's pretty much the only reason I miss Greg Smith in Oakland.
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