I can admit that Wade hasn't done anywhere near as poor as a job as I thought he'd do. I was petrified Pittsburgh was going to hire him.

Justice is technically right: they have a better record than they did last year. But it does not seem like they are any closer to contending for a championship. Tejada, Valverde, Matsui, and Wigginton are not going to be around for a WS in Houston, and the group came at a cost of some prospects, even if they weren't superb ones. Does anyone expect Scuffy Moehler to be a #2 starter going forward? Or Wigginton to hit .369/.566 ever again? Getting Berkman to increase his OPS+ by 40 points doesn't make Wade a good GM.

Point taken, though, SuperBaes, he hasn't traded Hunter Pence for a middle reliever, which is commendable.

What's remarkable about this team is how many things have gone wrong (in some cases horribly wrong), and yet they are sitting with about the same record as the Cardinals, for whom many things have gone remarkably right. Moehler and Wigginton (though really only for one really big month) have performed above expectations, but most of the individuals on the team have underperformed, and many have drastically underperformed in a worst-case-scenario type of disastrous way.

Carlos Lee's season ended in early August, Roy Oswalt has had his worst season, JR Towles hit .143, Michael Bourne can't break .230, Hunter Pence has been chasing everything and looking pretty lost, Miguel Tejada has continued a sharp offensive decline, Matsui can't stay healthy, Mark Loretta has had an off year, Blum and Erstad have had to play a lot as have Brad Ausmus and Humberto Quintero, Brandon Backe has been awful, Shawn Chacon had to be released, Chris Sampson had to be dropped from the rotation... a lot of things have gone wrong for them, and yet they are a winning team. At the beginning of the season, most of us thought just about everything would have to go right for the team to be in this position, and if we saw that kind of a list of disasters for them, a lot of people would have been thinking 95-100 losses.

Any perceived overachievement by this team is really more about overly pessimistic preseason expectations that any good job done by Wade. I don't think Wade has done a good job (I didn't like how he unloaded anything close to a prospect before the season and I didn't like his draft), but what he assmebled for this season probably had more potential for contention at the beginning of the year than people thought. Most people would have said that 84 wins (their current pace) was just about their ceiling at the beginning of the year, but the team has had a lot more go wrong than right this year, and yet here they are. We probably should have seen them as an 80-85-win team with a chance at 90+ at the beginning of the year, rather than a 75-win team with a chance for 85.

The problem is that unless you're the Cardinals a couple of years ago, you don't get anyhing for 84 wins, and they are not well-positioned to take significant steps forward from where they are. A core of Berkman and Lee (or Wigginton hitting like Lee) can drag an offense to respectability, but they have nothing coming to help in the way of young players (not enough anyway, even if you believe Pence will be decent, which I don't) to make it great. Roy Oswalt and a decent bullpen can keep the pitching staff mediocre, too. They have just enough starpower to stay around .500 without much support, but they need some young and cheap talent to come up and help them make the next step, and they don't have that coming at all.

Yeah, remember all the rebuilding the minor league system that Wade did this year? There was… and then… or maybe… what did he do to the minor league system again? Oh, right, gutted it and left it to die.

To take the Wade side of that, he'd argue that while not many (maybe none?) prospects were acquired for veterans so that the player talent isn't much better, he largely overhauled the scouting department including hiring one of Jack Zduriencik's crosscheckers, Bobby Heck, as the new scouting director. There also were new scouts hired into the international markets as well.

Those aren't the kinds of things that will rocket an organization up the farm system rankings, but when a team is at rock bottom they are necessary steps. And if Wade hired the right people - who knows - then those people will get the system headed in the right direction and that will represent significant rebuilding of the farm.

Mark Loretta has had an off year

This is Loretta's fourth straight "off year." He lost over 40 points in his OPS+ after 2004 and it ain't coming back.

To take the Wade side of that, he'd argue that while not many (maybe none?) prospects were acquired for veterans

The only move which made the Astros younger than I can think of is the Lidge/Bourn trade and nobody will argue that was a successful deal for Houston.

I don't pay much attention to the Astros, here's what I can think of that Wade has done...got rid of Scott and Lidge. Brought in Tejada, Bourne, Erstad, Matsui, Chacon, and Valverde.

What else? Because I'm not impressed so far.

There's also the Wheeler-Wigginton trade! That made the team...two months older. But Wigginton is having a great season right now, they wouldn't be slightly above .500 and within single digits of the wild card without him.

This is Loretta's fourth straight "off year." He lost over 40 points in his OPS+ after 2004 and it ain't coming back.

I remember Kevin Towers saying before the 2006 season that Loretta had suffered a wrist injury and lost a ton of bat speed that they thought was gone for good. It doesn't look like it's returning, either.

And let's not forget about Randy Wolf, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brian Moehler. You say stopgap, I say bridge to the future.

There's also the Wheeler-Wigginton trade!

That was last year.

Sorry, I thought Ed Wade was in charge last year. It seems like an eternity already.

If he's only been in charge less than a year it's ridiculous for Justice to claim anyone needs to apologize to anyone. Nobody knows what effect he's had on the farm system yet. All we know is the major league team has actually gotten older except for the retirement of Craig Biggio.

Hey, Wade's team is playing well...in Philadelphia.

Yeah. Wade's taken a team that was 73-89 last year and made them into a team that'll go, what, 82-80 (from BP's Playoff Odds Report)? 84-78?

Wade's put the Astros right at the sweet spot of mediocrity where you're not so good as to actually be in contention for anything (unless you're in the NL West, which the Astros are not) but not so poor as to be at risk of collecting a few high draft picks, like the Rays did in order to set up the miracle season they're having.

Sure, he hasn't made any astonishingly bad moves, like Kazmir for Zambrano or anything. Most of what he's done as GM for them has been uninspiring but not actually wrong in and of itself.

But it's hard to argue that the Astros are closer to winning a World Series than they were when Wade came onboard. They're really in a holding pattern right now.

Wade's put the Astros right at the sweet spot of mediocrity where you're not so good as to actually be in contention for anything (unless you're in the NL West, which the Astros are not) but not so poor as to be at risk of collecting a few high draft picks

Or, as those of us in Toronto like to call it, the Ricciardi zone.

Hey, Wade's team is playing well...in Philadelphia.

Losing 6-1 to the Nationals, at the moment.

I thought this was an "Onion" story. I was waiting for the profanity-drenched tirade from "Ed Wade" and was bitterly disappointed when it didn't occur.

Seriously, I salute the fightin' Wades for their magical run to 85-77, and I'll be even happier this offseason when Houston decides that this collection of mediocrity is just one or two pieces away from a championship.

/feeling snarky because the Astros have been irritating the crap out of my team all season

Seriously, I salute the fightin' Wades for their magical run to 85-77

85-77 won the NL Central last year. I don't think it was too outrageous to believe that's all it would take again this year--if memory serves correct, Baseball Prospectus was predicting the Cubs to win the Central with 89 wins.

Wade's offseason moves were done to make the Astros an 81-86 win team, a record that would make them at least competitive in a mediocre division. His mistake was in failing to predict that both Milwaukee and Chicago would win 95+--a mistake he shares with everyone on this site.

His mistake was in failing to predict that both Milwaukee and Chicago would win 95+--a mistake he shares with everyone on this site

4 teams in the NL Central are doing better than predicted, while most of the teams in the NL West along with the Braves are doing worse than expected. At least some of those unexpected wins for each of the 4 NL Central teams has to come from weaker than expected competition, so it's not as if Wade's decisions made this team this good. Rather, it was probably a team close to .500 that got a boost from the crappy NL West and the Braves tanking.

Expecting 86 wins to take the Central this season would be the dumbest of Wade's long line of dumb decisions.

Actually, JP has shown over time to correct some mistakes (for example drafting patterns). He actually dealt Eckstein and Stairs this year. Normally, he would have played out the string with them.

The Reds have been a lot worse than expected this year. And I think more people expected the Cubs to be the class of the NL than expected any other team to be the class of the NL.

Have the Phillies traded away anyone that would be considered a very good prospect? Trading Lidge was a mistake but signing and trading for the rest of these guys seems to cost the Astros mostly money which they have to spend. There's only so much damage a GM can do to a really bad farm system. As long as they are spending money on the draft and international signings, I don't see how spending money on the big league club hurts. It's not like Tejada et al. are blocking anyone.

Have the Phillies traded away anyone that would be considered a very good prospect?

You mean the Astros?

They traded Matt Albers away in the Tejada deal. He'd been in the majors for most of 2007, but his failure to be any good in the majors in 2007 means he was still a prospect at the time. (similar to if the Mets had traded Mike Pelfrey)

Expecting 86 wins to take the Central this season would be the dumbest of Wade's long line of dumb decisions.

Perhaps. But expecting an 86-win team to play meaningful September games in the Central this season certainly wasn't.

Are they even an 86 win talent team? 65-72 pythag heading into today.

Some people owe Ed Wade an apology. For instance, you.

So's your mom.

Trading Lidge was a mistake but signing and trading for the rest of these guys seems to cost the Astros mostly money which they have to spend.

Tejada cost them Luke Scott (who is younger and under the team's control for longer), Albers, Patton, Sarfate, & Costanzo.

Patton became the Orioles #2 prospect according to Sickels - though he injured himself this season and Costanzo made the list as well. So, yes, the Astros got older and worse by acquiring Tejada.

Are they even an 86 win talent team? 65-72 pythag heading into today.

But outside of Berkman, 3 months of Lee, and a month of Wigginton, this season has been a disaster on almost every front in terms of individual performances. If things went a little better, they certainly could have expected a mid-to-high-80s-win season.

. As long as they are spending money on the draft and international signings,

Are they? Picking Jason Castro over Justin Smoak doesn't make it seem as if they are spending money liberally on the draft.

His mistake was in failing to predict that both Milwaukee and Chicago would win 95+--a mistake he shares with everyone on this site

Nonsense. I thought for sure Milwaukee would win around 95 games this year. They should have won 95 games last year but had a historic ruen of blowing 3 run leads. I didn't expect the Cubs to get to 100 but I did expect them to win around 90+ games. I figured the Cards to be above .500 this year again and that was a pick that would get you scorn on this site, but really figuring this division needed less then 90 wins to take it all this year would have been folly before the season.

But outside of Berkman, 3 months of Lee, and a month of Wigginton, this season has been a disaster on almost every front in terms of individual performances. If things went a little better, they certainly could have expected a mid-to-high-80s-win season.

The rallying cry of mediocrity - if we'd caught a few more breaks we'd be a decent team. The problem with building a marginal contender is that you have no options if things don't go exactly to plan, and no team survives a 162 game season without SOME things going wrong. Look at the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers lost Gallardo early on in the season, spent $10 million on a closer with a 6.81 ERA, had Bill Hall utterly crater at third base, had Braun miss time due to injury, ... and they're looking like a 93 win team right now. The Cubs lost Rich Hill to God only knows what, had Soriano and Zambrano spend time on the DL, had their big free agent signing fall short of expectations... and they're looking like a 98-win team right now.

All teams have adversity; good, deep teams have the resources to overcome it. When you trade away everything you have for a handful of pieces, you lose all of your depth. That's why it's real difficult to do the sort of things the Astros did last offseason and try to become a contender.

BBTF Can do no wrong, despite evidence to the contrary-Billy Beane

BBTF Can do no right, despite evidence to the contrary-Bud Selig; Ed Wade

BBTF Can do no right, despite evidence to the contrary-Bud Selig; Ed Wade

Don't forget to add JP Ricciardi, who is currently running a team with a pythagorean record of 76 and 60, with an active thread speculating how soon it'll be before he's fired.

The rallying cry of mediocrity - if we'd caught a few more breaks we'd be a decent team.

They ARE a "decent" team, even with hardly any breaks. I'm not saying that they are well-constructed, though, only that they were in better position to contend with just a couple of breaks than they were given credit for at the beginning of the season. Most people thought their current performance was their ceiling, and, given how the season has gone, they certainly have nothing close to their best possible scenario going here.

People have just been so anxious to pile dirt on the Astros the last few years that they are constantly ahead of the curve. They are a mediocre, .500-ish team, about the level of teams like the Blue Jays or the Rangers or the Cardinals. But they are discussed like they are the Orioles or Mariners. They are not. They might be soon, but right now, they are average, not terrible, not good, average. And with a few breaks they could have been in the thick of things this year. That's not necessarily a good place to be, because it might make you think you're closer than you are, but it's not the worst place, either.

They are a mediocre, .500-ish team, about the level of teams like the Blue Jays or the Rangers or the Cardinals. But they are discussed like they are the Orioles or Mariners.

The Orioles and Astros essentially have the same Pythag record, the Orioles are in the best division in baseball.

And with a few breaks they could have been in the thick of things this year.
4 breaks that have gone their way:
Wandy -- 113 ERA+
Matsui -- 101 OPS+
Wiggy -- 141 OPS+
Geoff Geary -- 171 ERA+

Minor breaks going their way:
Berkman having best year, Moehler having a nice year.

They have had both good breaks and bad breaks. Obviously the final chapter on Ed Wade can't be written yet but it looks like a longshot that it will turn out great.

Baseball Prospectus was predicting the Cubs to win the Central with 89 wins.

91 actually

The Reds have been a lot worse than expected this year.

I can't imagine any reason why they've been frustrating underachievers...

Don't forget to add JP Ricciardi, who is currently running a team with a pythagorean record of 76 and 60, with an active thread speculating how soon it'll be before he's fired

So JP has run a team for 7 seasons, and the best he can do is create a roster than is 16 imaginary games over .500?

If anyone ran a franchise for 7 years and managed to create teams that have finished 13, 10, 15, 33.5, 15, 25.5 games out of first place with another 15+ pending, there would be talk of his getting fired, and rightly so. This is the tiebreaker season that has (barring a minor collapse) pushed JP into the territory of having more teams over .500 than under.

That's not a record that makes you go "Oh good, this guy is running my team."

I only follow the JP Ricciardi stuff with mild interest, but anyone who has to compete in a division with the free-spending champions yankees and Red Sox (and that extra money is not just for player payroll; lots of other benefits all the cash brings) has my sympathy.

The Rays success? Someone else said it best on the Rays...you want to recreate the Rays success? Okay, first finish with among the worst 3 records in baseball, for 7 out of 10 years... If that is the Rays way, no thanks.