that was silly of the Cubs.

But, the Cubs are pretty much stuck. With arb salaries, Grabow, etc. they are already at last year's payroll as near as I can tell. They aren't gonna add a big name FA unless they can clear payroll space.

And what pitcher is there to add?

Not Billy Wagner - he's going to Atlanta (per mlbtraderumors <--- robothal)

I don't understand why Harden finished the 2009 season as a Cub.

That's a great point, Pops. If the Cubs had no desire to resign him or even bother offering arb (and quite frankly, they had to know by the end of August considering they shut him down shortly thereafter), why not make that deal with the Twins (or anyone else)?

I don't like how Marshall is being pigeon-holed as a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type" already. He should be starting on this team, no matter who they sign.

I don't like how Marshall is being pigeon-holed as a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type" already. He should be starting on this team, no matter who they sign.

I love Marshall's curveball, but I'd much rather see the Cubs flip him this season. I think he IS a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type". Maybe he's still got room to improve, but I doubt it.

So this is a third place team with fourth place possibilities, right?

4. Moses Taylor is as angry as Warren Moon in 1995 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 10:06 AM (#3401064)

I told you, no one gets that reference.

"Harden's Price Too Stiff For Cubs"

"Harden won't let Cubs give him the shaft"

"Harden To Follow Indians' Wood?"

"Phallic Puns Entertain Fans Desperate for Offseason News"

Stupid.

Just Stupid.

First - I cannot imagine Harden accepting arbitration. He's only a type B, so no one need give up a pick to sign him. It's basically a free sandwich pick.

Second - even if the bottom completely falls out of the market (sure, it might... but I look at the deal Brian Schneider signed and don't think it will) and Harden DOES opt to accept arbitration, he's certainly not going to get a huge raise from what was a reasonable salary.

OK - maybe the Cubs cannot even afford a small raise from the 7 mil he made last year... Fine... Are you honestly telling me there is no trade market for Rich Harden on a one year deal under 10 million? Nonsense.

This was just a dumb, asinine, stupid, moronic, #######, organizational move. The Cubs could have had an additional top 60 pick in next year's draft and they say "no thanks"?

I hate stupid moves fringe moves like this.

"Breaking News: Members of Male-dominated Sports Blog Get Rise out of Penis Puns"

Seriously, knowing Theo Epstein's love of lost-cost, high-ceiling rehab pitchers, how many minutes do you think it took the Red Sox to contact Harden's agent once this news broke?

I told you, no one gets that reference.

Is it a wife-beating reference?

It still boggles my mind that there's a couple out there with the last name "harden" and the parents thought, "Let's name our son Richard!"

"Breaking News: Members of Male-dominated Sports Blog Get Rise out of Penis Puns"

"BBTF Comments Resemble Circle Jerk"

So this is a third place team with fourth place possibilities, right?

No, they're a 1st place team with 3rd place aspirations. I don't know what the Cards are going to do this offseason, but potentially losing Holliday, Piniero and DeRosa could be a lot to replace, although they always manage to pull productive players out of LaRussa's ass. I still think there's more talent on the Cubs than the Brewers, Reds, Astros or Pirates. So, anything is possible, although I'm, for once, not very optimistic.

I love Marshall's curveball, but I'd much rather see the Cubs flip him this season. I think he IS a "back end of the rotation/long reliever type". Maybe he's still got room to improve, but I doubt it.

You know, I used to think this, and was one of his biggest detractors here, but at some point I've come around on him. Maybe it's seeing the Gorz and the Samardz listed as options along with him, while knowing he's clearly better than both of them.

I hate stupid moves fringe moves like this.

This is exactly what I said in the lounge yesterday when we talked about this. Hendry's biggest failing, by far, is the fringe stuff. From all accounts, all the Cubs have to work with this year is around the fringes. So this move, along with the Grabow and the inevitable next signing of a utility guy, were sadly predictable. And is the reason I fail to be optimistic.

Maybe it's seeing the Gorz and the Samardz listed as options along with him, while knowing he's clearly better than both of them.

I don't know... I still like the Gorz's K rate. All accounts have him as a real meathead, but sometimes meatheads with good arms become good pitchers. I think Marshall is more likely to be a relatively consistent, low ceiling #5 that you don't need to worry about imploding, but I could see something clicking with Gorz, and him developing into a top half of the rotation option. BPJ - well, we've had our fun with him... keep him, trade him, let him apply for the ND coaching job... doesn't matter to me.

Ive asked this before on BBTF, so sorry in advance I missed the answer or if this is common knowledge, but does arbitration automatically mean a raise? Why couldn't the Cubs submit a figure below $7m and the arbitrator rule in their favor?

Ive asked this before on BBTF, so sorry in advance I missed the answer or if this is common knowledge, but does arbitration automatically mean a raise? Why couldn't the Cubs submit a figure below $7m and the arbitrator rule in their favor?

No - but I believe the maximum paycut a player could get through arbitration is somewhere in the 20% range, but there's no ceiling to the raise, SFAIK.

Seriously, knowing Theo Epstein's love of lost-cost, high-ceiling rehab pitchers, how many minutes do you think it took the Red Sox to contact Harden's agent once this news broke?

Since Harden's a "B" FA that wouldn't cost a team a pick anyways, I doubt the Red Sox care whether the Cubs offered him arb.

No - but I believe the maximum paycut a player could get through arbitration is somewhere in the 20% range, but there's no ceiling to the raise, SFAIK.

The maximum reduction rule is only for pre-FA players; it's not applicable to FAs who accept arbitration.

You know, I used to think this, and was one of his biggest detractors here, but at some point I've come around on him.

One of the most pleasant evolutions I've ever seen on the part of a BBTFer.

Ive asked this before on BBTF, so sorry in advance I missed the answer or if this is common knowledge, but does arbitration automatically mean a raise?

It doesn't, but it's very rare that players don't receive a raise. For players who have yet to hit free agent status, a team can offer up to a 20% cut from the previous year's salary. For players who have enough service time for free agency, however, a team can offer any cut - they're not restricted to the 20% limit.

As to why you almost never see a player take less in arb, I'm not sure. I'd guess it's mostly a matter of teams not offering arb to players who have underperformed so badly that they could conceivably be forced to take a cut. It could also just be a matter of the free agent pay rate for most players being high enough that teams just don't want to take the gamble of getting stuck - a guy like Harden can point to all sorts of bad free agent contracts to show that, even with his missed time, he's worth at least his $7M on a one year deal, whereas the Cubs might have a rough time finding pitchers comparable to Harden who were forced to sign for less than that number.

Since Harden's a "B" FA that wouldn't cost a team a pick anyways, I doubt the Red Sox care whether the Cubs offered him arb.

The A's offered Duke--also a type B--arbitration to put this move by the Cubs in perspective. It's weird to see teams like the Cubs and Dodgers freeze up like this.

One of the most pleasant evolutions I've ever seen on the part of a BBTFer.

Whatever, old man.

It still boggles my mind that there's a couple out there with the last name "harden" and the parents thought, "Let's name our son Richard!"

they could have named him "mike" or "Willy", but really he should just be glad he doesn't have the nickname "Tiny".

Whatever, old man.

You should be flattered. "Most pleasant evolutions I've ever seen" covers a whole ####-load of time.

EDIT: I'm disappointed you forgot my birthday last weekend, Moses. You, of all people!

Ive asked this before on BBTF, so sorry in advance I missed the answer or if this is common knowledge, but does arbitration automatically mean a raise? Why couldn't the Cubs submit a figure below $7m and the arbitrator rule in their favor?

I read somewhere on here today that it has been decades since a player took a paycut in arb.

I read somewhere on here today that it has been decades since a player took a paycut in arb.

It was posted elsewhere as 1993. I'm not sure if that's right, as I remember Juan Guzman being forced to take a 20% cut after the 1995 season, but I can't remember if that was decided by an arbitrator, or just agreed to in advance, to avoid the embarassment of having an arbitrator tell him he sucked enough (4-14, 75 ERA+) to deserve that 20% cut.

Either way, it looks like it has been roughly 15 years since a player was last forced to take a cut in arb.

It doesn't, but it's very rare that players don't receive a raise.

Erik Hanson, 1993. He led the league in losses, saw his ERA balloon by 1.40 above his career to date, and was paid about the same as teammate Randy Johnson. He got a 7% pay cut. Hasn't happened since.

Edit: He asked for a 70% increase. This probably made it an easy choice for the arbitrator.

thanks guys. It seems like it could happen for some player after the last year of a huge long contract who is obviously not a superstar anymore. But I guess in those cases teams just dont offer arb because they assume raise or dont want to risk it.

The Braves weren't even confident enough to go to arbitration asking for the same salary for Maddux in 2003.

It still boggles my mind that there's a couple out there with the last name "harden" and the parents thought, "Let's name our son Richard!"

James Richard Harden.

James Richard Harden

This makes perfect sense to me. If your last name lends itself to a joke or porn name, bury it as a middle name. Use it if you want and you'll rarely have to tell anybody what it is if you don't.

That might be a good interview question for him (or for Dick Pound, Randy Johnson, etc.): with a name like yours, no doubt you've heard endless puns and bear numerous psychological scars from your childhood. That said: have you heard any good dick jokes?

The Braves weren't even confident enough to go to arbitration asking for the same salary for Maddux in 2003.

That's because they did that very thing the year before, and Boras ran them over with a car, thus leading to the Millwood/Estrada trade.

That's because they did that very thing the year before, and Boras ran them over with a car, thus leading to the Millwood/Estrada trade.

I think they were different situations. Millwood gained a lot in arbitration because he was a young player due for a raise. Maddux was an older player probably due for a pay cut (based only on performace), but the Braves figured that arbitration meant a de-facto raise even if technically it doesn't have to be so they agreed to a raise before going through with the arbitration.

"I still like the Gorz's K rate."

If you're going to like something about him, that's probably the right choice. Not much competition.

"All accounts have him as a real meathead..."

He's been one for a while. That's why he failed out of Kansas, and had to go to JC in order to play.

Erik Hanson, 1993. He led the league in losses, saw his ERA balloon by 1.40 above his career to date, and was paid about the same as teammate Randy Johnson. He got a 7% pay cut. Hasn't happened since.

Edit: He asked for a 70% increase. This probably made it an easy choice for the arbitrator.

My favorite "Dude, seriously?" moment in contract negotiations was when Carlos Quintana missed the entire 1992 season with injuries caused by a car crash, and then asked the Red Sox for a raise at the end of the season. The Red Sox politely told him to STFU and GBTW.

Of course, that was a non-arb situation, so it's a little different.

EDIT: I'm disappointed you forgot my birthday last weekend, Moses. You, of all people!

I'm surprised you remembered it!

It seems like it could happen for some player after the last year of a huge long contract who is obviously not a superstar anymore. But I guess in those cases teams just dont offer arb because they assume raise or dont want to risk it.

I would guess that in most of those cases, teams wouldn't even want to risk a paycut that wasn't big enough.

That's because they did that very thing the year before, and Boras ran them over with a car, thus leading to the Millwood/Estrada trade.

Really? Is that how you remember it? The Braves won that one:

Really? Is that how you remember it? The Braves won that one

Now I think, actually, he's referring to Maddux but in the same year that I was talking about. "Boras running them over with a car" was just them surprisingly accepting arbitration. And then, the Braves settled w/ Maddux before arbitration for a raise from his previous year, even though his performance did not still match the contract.

I might have this wrong.

Jimmy Dick Harden. Why not just name the kid Penis?

Any insight at all from the Cubs as to why they wouldn't offer arbitration? Other than, "Hey we're stupid beyond repair." Or "That's a lot of money." Or "The Royals were advising us."

My favorite "Dude, seriously?" moment in contract negotiations was when Carlos Quintana missed the entire 1992 season with injuries caused by a car crash, and then asked the Red Sox for a raise at the end of the season. The Red Sox politely told him to STFU and GBTW.

That did go to arbitration. The arbitrator, not surprisingly, agreed with the Red Sox:



How does an agent even make that case? A 150% ask is pretty low for an Arb 1 guy, but for one who spent the entire season on the DL with a non-baseball injury?

Edit: There have been two other no raise results since 1993: Willie Banks, 1996 and Jason Dickson, 2000:



They both missed the preceding seasons with injuries.

"Why not just name the kid Penis?"

Or Dong Dong?

jwb, I have to ask - where are you getting these arb numbers from? I'm curious, only because I'd love to root through these cases to laugh at some of the more ridiculous decisions by teams and players (and to see what Juan Guzman asked for after the 1995 season).

Or Dong Dong?

You know, this makes me wonder: How long before some kid is named just a sound. Like the guy that was once Prince. But with sound.

That was a quality thread, Vlad. Not as good as the million dollar ball to your nutsack thread, but not bad. Whatever happened to the poster who called us all hairy pigs or some such thing? I was hoping that guy would be a recurring BBTF character.

You know, this makes me wonder: How long before some kid is named just a sound. Like the guy that was once Prince. But with sound.

This is one of the many, many reasons I am not allowed to procreate.

Not as good as the million dollar ball to your nutsack thread, but not bad.

You mean this thread?

If you're ever looking for it, it's the first link found on a BTF search for the term "smashed dick."

This is one of the many, many reasons I am not allowed to procreate.

Please don't leave set-up lines like this lying around. Someone's likely to get hurt.

Now I think, actually, he's referring to Maddux but in the same year that I was talking about. "Boras running them over with a car" was just them surprisingly accepting arbitration. And then, the Braves settled w/ Maddux before arbitration for a raise from his previous year, even though his performance did not still match the contract.

That's the way I remember it, too. The Braves made a "Let's offer him arb and take the picks" offer and Maddux's response was "I accept" and they agreed on 12% before the hearing (or at least before the results were announced). Keep this in mind whenever somebody says "They should just offer arb and take the picks." As we saw yesterday, teams are wising up about this questionable strategy.

As for Harden, I've read a lot of rumors about interested teams, but any which have had any details have been for one year incentive heavy deals. The one year and $9M or so he'd get in arbitration, guaranteed (assuming he won't be bad enough to release in spring training), might work out better for him than a larger contract with lots of the money in roster and performance bonuses. My guess is the Cubs didn't want to assume that risk, either. He's got a tear in his shoulder which is going to blow up sooner or later.

jwb, I have to ask - where are you getting these arb numbers from?

Ryan Jones, Most of it is from bizofbaseball.com, but I've added some previous salaries and maybe other stuff. Maury's site ain't workin' so good today so I can't say exactly which link it is off his main page and how much I have added. I've got it in Excel 2007 format. I can e-mail it to you. If Excel 2007 doesn't work for you, all that would be lost is some rather unattractive shading in the Ask% Bid% Res% columns. Now that I look at it again, it's actually in Excel 1997-2003 format.

Edit: Oh, and I'm missing most Previous Salaries between 1978 and 1982.

jwb, if you got email it to me, I would be extremely grateful. I'll send you a message through BTF mail a bit later today, so that you have my address.

That was a quality thread, Vlad.

I just re-read. I was having a really bad day, I think.

"I was having a really bad day, I think."

Happens to all of us, once in a while.

On the bright side, if you hadn't been having a bad day, I never would've ended up rapping in the style of a trampolinist.

I'm curious, only because I'd love to root through these cases to laugh at some of the more ridiculous decisions by teams and players (and to see what Juan Guzman asked for after the 1995 season).

Ridiculous maybe, but only outside of context. Guzman went 10-3 with a 143 ERA+ in 1991. He got a $142,000 raise. He then went 16-5 with a 156 ERA+, was an all star, and went 2-0 with an ERA below 2 in the post season in 1992. He then got a $258,000 raise. The next year he went 14-3 with a more pedestrian 109 ERA+, was stellar again in the post season, and got some CYA support. He got a $500,000 raise, bringing him up all the way to $1,000,000.

That's the way the system works. If a guy can get paid barely above the minimum for 3 outstanding seasons merely because of lack of service time, it's not ridiculous for him to expect a lot more than minimum for less than stellar performance once he has accumulated the necessary service time. Or to put it another way, asking for a raise was not ridiculous because he was asking for a raise from an artificially low salary level to begin with.

Todd Stottlemeyer was his teammate in 1992-93. In 1992, Todd went 12-11 with a 91 ERA+. He made 1.2 million. He then got a raise to 2.3 million, went 11-12 with a 90 ERA+, and got a raise to 2.4 million. Stottlemeyer had never been as good as Guzman was in 1991-92, was making far more than Guzman, pitching far worse, and getting raises. Because that's how the system is set up.

"Harden, in Surprise Move, Put in Two-Hole"

You know, this makes me wonder: How long before some kid is named just a sound. Like the guy that was once Prince. But with sound.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNSf-KQORRk (NSFW after around the 1:30 mark - or in the comments)

Ridiculous maybe, but only outside of context. Guzman went 10-3 with a 143 ERA+ in 1991. He got a $142,000 raise. He then went 16-5 with a 156 ERA+, was an all star, and went 2-0 with an ERA below 2 in the post season in 1992. He then got a $258,000 raise. The next year he went 14-3 with a more pedestrian 109 ERA+, was stellar again in the post season, and got some CYA support. He got a $500,000 raise, bringing him up all the way to $1,000,000.

He then went 12-11, with a 85 ERA+, and got a raise to $2,800,000. He then went 4-14, with a 75 ERA+, at which point he had to eat a 20% cut. As someone who watched the Jays all those years, I'm quite familiar with the context in which the numbers were put up, and the associated service time issues.

As to what you quoted, my point wasn't about laughing at Guzman's offer to the Jays in arb (by my phrasing, however, I could see why you might think that it was), but actual curiosity as to what number his agent put forward - I would think it would be interesting to see how his agent would try to spin the value of a season that was that terrible.

I'll reserve my actual laughter for things like Arizona beating a catcher in arb, and then immediately turning around and signing him to a contract worth more than the arbitration award that the team just won (Fabergas!).