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Monday, February 18, 2008

K.C. Star: Posnanski: Bill James has made the sports world a better place

Joe Posnanski and Bill James, does it get any sweeter!  Ok, ok...so the Cutter Buck Eeeewing shirt has to go.

He wrote about baseball, but in a different way. He was an outsider, and he embraced that role. He wrote sacrilegious things, wrote batting average was no way to measure a hitter, wrote that ballparks could make a break or a player’s numbers, wrote that counting errors was a pretty pointless way to measure a guy’s defense. At the time the stuff was so different from what was in the papers and on television that many people took to mocking Bill James. That was OK. He mocked back. He was better at it.

Over time, of course, people began to realize that most of what Bill was saying was true — or at least a lot more true than the conventional wisdom. Batting average is, in fact, a ridiculously flawed statistic because it doesn’t bother to count walks. Ballparks, as anyone who watched Neifi Perez hit .321 at Coors Field, do have huge effects on ballplayers’ numbers. And you cannot judge a fielder by his errors anymore than you can judge a pitcher by his wild pitches.

...This is the age of questions, and Bill had a lot to do with that. Bill is 58, and he hasn’t stopped asking questions either or writing about what interests him. He has a new book called The Bill James Gold Mine 2008 with a bunch of statistics and essays and stuff. He has a Web site ( www.billjamesonline.net) with a lot of great stuff. And every so often — quite often — he will just send an e-mail to a friend asking whether the 1999 Kansas City Royals had the best young outfield ever.

Repoz Posted: February 18, 2008 at 01:23 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralHistorySabermetricsKansas CityProducts

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   1. The District Attorney Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#2693532)
Huh, Bill's shirt there makes the Neyer flannel look good.
   2. The Milton Bradley Effect (Voxter) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:42 AM (#2693538)
Who is this guy kidding? We all know Bill James ruined baseball on purpose.
   3. Run Joe Run (Illonardo) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 06:15 AM (#2693555)
Huh, Bill's shirt there makes the Neyer flannel look good.

As much as we all like to rib Rob Neyer, he does hold an extremely important place in sports writing. Rob was one of the first (maybe the first) sabermetric guys who wrote for the mainstream media. And not any mainstream media - ESPN! He took James' theories (and others) and landed them in a column read by millions. His simple writing style made these theories accessible for many. For the first time OPS was talked about everyday.

It's too bad his work is now PPV - I miss his column.
   4. Moscow Hiding In The Shadows Posted: February 18, 2008 at 07:55 AM (#2693565)
He has a Web site ( www.billjamesonline.net) with a lot of great stuff.

Actually James has a web site that isn't launched yet and promises to charge $3.00 a month. Nothing wrong with that, but Poz might have mentioned it.
   5. Justin Zeth Posted: February 18, 2008 at 07:59 AM (#2693567)
Rob Neyer mentioned that site too, a week or so ago. I wonder where there isn't stuff there that only James' inner circle is able to see right now, and the $3/month public-access thing is somewhere between "an idea being bandied about" and "somebody's still working on implementing it with no bugs" on the development curve.
   6. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 09:14 AM (#2693579)
We all know Bill James ruined baseball on purpose.

I hate it when people like Bill James and Albert Belle ruin baseball on purpose
   7. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 12:32 PM (#2693720)
The best ones as far as I'm concerned were Cobb+Crawford+McIntyre on the Tigers and Speaker+Hooper+Lewis on the Red Sox.
   8. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 12:40 PM (#2693730)
Since there's no Dugout, I'll ask here, is there a way I can find stats by position at BBREF PI? I want to find out who has hit the most home runs, say at the shortstop position. All I can see is home runs by shortstops that have played a certain number of games at that position, but it includes stats from when that player played other positions as well.
   9. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2693740)
The best ones as far as I'm concerned were Cobb+Crawford+McIntyre on the Tigers and Speaker+Hooper+Lewis on the Red Sox.


From the article:
(young meaning 25 years old or younger)

McIntyre and Crawford were 26 when Cobb came up. Speaker-Hooper-Lewis would qualify however.
   10. BaseballDIY Posted: February 18, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2693864)
Also since there's no dugout: Is there a way to determine who the most "common" player in baseball history is? That is, maybe the guy who's listed as a comp for the most players?
   11. Dag Nabbit Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#2693871)
I actually went to billjamesonline once or twice and saw stuff -- but other times just the Coming Soon / $3 month thing. It was weird - it wasn't like it got pulled and taken off, it was like I typed in the url a little differently and saw the man behind the curtain. I really didn't look at it that much. And I really don't understand the point of making it a monthly subscription - wouldn't a yearly one be hella lot more convenient?

#10 - there was a post a b-ref's Stat of the Day blog a few weeks ago about the most PA for a player with an OPS+ from 99-101. From memory, Bill Buckner was the winner. WOuld that make him teh most common?
   12. Justin Zeth Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2693877)
I wouldn't think so, because Buckner's longevity, on a historical scale, is extremely uncommon. What you'd want is the player sitting on the median number of PAs--or maybe the mean, actually, since players with 220 career PAs are much more common than those with 2200 or 4400--and an OPS+ of 99-101. Or actually, even better would be to find the mean PA guy with each of the semi-imaginary stats of AVG+, OBP+ and SLG+ sitting from 99-101. (There are probably only a handful of such guys in history.)
   13. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2693879)
#10 - there was a post a b-ref's Stat of the Day blog a few weeks ago about the most PA for a player with an OPS+ from 99-101. From memory, Bill Buckner was the winner.

your memory is correct

1 Bill Buckner 10033 99
2 Pee Wee Reese 9470 99
3 Tony Fernandez 8793 101
4 Jay Bell 8525 101
5 Lloyd Waner 8326 99
6 Willie McGee 8188 100
7 Charlie Jamieson 7488 101
8 Bret Boone 7432 101
9 Gee Walker 7211 99
10 Tommy Harper 7164 101

WOuld that make him teh most common?

it would certainly make him the most averagest
   14. Robert Machemer Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:35 PM (#2693892)
That's unfair. Pee Wee Reese would have passed Buckner in PA if he hadn't gone off to war (as was typical -- or dare we say "average" -- of the warm-blooded American male during those years).

What would he have had to hit in those seasons to raise his career OPS+ above 101?
   15. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2693898)
I agree--wartime credit would make PeeWee more averager than Billy Bucks
   16. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2693904)
Being a few inches closer to the ground than Buckner, Pee Wee Reese also would have caught Mookie's roller.
   17. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 18, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2693914)
WOuld that make him teh most common?

I think not, because most players who lasted as long as him would be much better.

...checking...

Indeed, Buckner's most similar player is Mickey Vernon at only 880, so I doubt he shows up on many others' comp lists.
   18. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:09 PM (#2693924)
Or actually, even better would be to find the mean PA guy with each of the semi-imaginary stats of AVG+, OBP+ and SLG+ sitting from 99-101.

Better would be someone near the historical means of AVG, OBP, and SLG.

You can't have someone with too short a career. Even if he has a lot of close comps, say above 950, slight differences in stats will make bigger differences in the sim score, so he's not necessarily the among the closest comp to all of them.

Long career players tend to differentiate themselves, so they don't have as many close comps.

Maybe someone like John Lowenstein, with 4000 career PA, .253/.337/.403, 116 HR, 441 RBI, and top 10 sim scores ranging from 951 to 931.

But how do you determine how many comp lists Lowenstein himself is on? No easy way to do it except going through possibilities one-by-one, as far as I know. I don't have time for that now, but surely someone does.
   19. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2693929)
Looking at my own sim scores, which are park and era adjusted (but still use James' formula for calculating sim scores), this guy is the number 1 score for the most people (7). Hank Blalock is actually tied for number 2 with 6, although obviously his career is only partial.
   20. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2693943)
He's close to my model. A little shorter career than Lowenstein.

Lowenstein is on 6 of his comps' lists, so he has at least 6. But I would think the most common guy would be on more of his own comps' lists.
   21. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:30 PM (#2693949)
Lowenstein is on 6 of his comps' lists, so he has at least 6. But I would think the most common guy would be on more of his own comps' lists.


Altman's got the most top spots in my lists. He may not be the most common. It'll take a little bit longer to find the most common across all 10 spots.
   22. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#2693966)
Oh, I had misread you before. I thought 7 seemed kind of low.
   23. The District Attorney Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#2693988)
As much as we all like to rib Rob Neyer, he does hold an extremely important place in sports writing. Rob was one of the first (maybe the first) sabermetric guys who wrote for the mainstream media. And not any mainstream media - ESPN! He took James' theories (and others) and landed them in a column read by millions. His simple writing style made these theories accessible for many. For the first time OPS was talked about everyday.
Sure, but he had a funny shirt.
   24. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: February 18, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2694022)
Here's a list of some pretty nondescript hitters. They are actually fairly diverse players, for being so nondescript as hitters, but their top ten sim scores tend to range from 960 down to 930 or so.
   25. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: February 18, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#2694029)
#24's list has some interesting players.

Shanty Hogan's #3 comp is Benjie Molina. Perfect! Makes total sense!

But then, Shanty Hogan's #9 comp is Marlon Anderson. Not exactly so comparable.
   26. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: February 18, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2694040)
Ok, looking at top 10 scores for all players, the player who shows up on the most lists is....

Jackie Brandt on 38 lists

Other high scorers are:

Kevin McReynolds, 31

George Altman and Frankie Gustine, 29
   27. BaseballDIY Posted: February 18, 2008 at 05:45 PM (#2694043)
Thanks, Dan!
   28. CWS Keith Posted: February 18, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#2694056)
When Pos/James asks about "best young outfield ever", are they taking that to mean that specific year, or is it taking into account what those guys became (or could become)? If it's the latter, the 2007 D-Rays have to be in the ballpark with Crawford, Young and Dukes. There are some issues with this, of course -- Crawford turned 26 on August 5th. I think it's okay to count him because he played a majority of the season as a 25-year-old. There's also the issue of Dukes -- he only got a third of a season's worth of at-bats.

Are there any other (relatively) current teams who could make a case for best young outfield? I can only think of Arizona -- if they'd kept Quentin, a left-to-right of Quentin, Young and Upton would be pretty ####### tough to beat.
   29. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 18, 2008 at 06:27 PM (#2694069)
Crawford turned 26 on August 5th. I think it's okay to count him because he played a majority of the season as a 25-year-old.

His baseball age for the year was 25, so I think you can call him 25.
   30. Voros Posted: February 18, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2694102)
Bell, Barfield and Moseby were all very good in 1985.
   31. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 18, 2008 at 07:08 PM (#2694109)
Interesting. McReynolds is a little better than the type of player I was thinking of. Jackie Brandt fits well, and in fact he is #7 on Lowenstein's list on B-R. Brandt shows up on 9 of his top 10 comps' lists on B-R.

How many does Lowenstein show up on in your database, Dan?

We still need someone to go through every single page on B-R to find out who is the most common player there. No one's taken up this challenge yet? It's a holiday, people!
   32. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: February 18, 2008 at 07:23 PM (#2694119)
McReynolds is a little better than the type of player I was thinking of.


Remember, it's largely counting stats based (even when adjusted for park/era) - so someone with a better career rate-wise, like McReynolds, can look comparable to a lesser hitter with a longer career.

How many does Lowenstein show up on in your database, Dan?


Surprisingly, only 8.

I think my system generates a lot more cross-era comparisons than BR's, so I include a lot larger range of players.

Oh, and this was only for hitters. I'm pretty comfortable with my numbers there, but no so much on the pitchers side.
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