We’re not an improving team anymore.

That's a little blunt, but a frank admission. Won't stop me from believing in Gordon & Butler.

Someone should send the link to this article to Josh Byrnes

It's nice that Dayton's slamming his fist on the desk, but he's been in Kansas City for all of 2 1/2 years and he's already tired of rebuilding? How long did he think it would take to turn around one of the most pathetic franchises in the game?

My affection for the Royals is entirely Posnanski (and a little Neyer) based, but I sure do hope for them that this doesn't mean that Moore is going to go out and sign Burnett or Dunn or Burrell or something this summer.

CFBF Is Now "Prince Longbody." Posted: October 05, 2008 at 01:54 AM (#2968952)
It's nice that Dayton's slamming his fist on the desk, but he's been in Kansas City for all of 2 1/2 years and he's already tired of rebuilding? How long did he think it would take to turn around one of the most pathetic franchises in the game?

From the FA,

He has seen the Royals’ big-league club make steady improvement, from the second half of another 100-loss season (their fourth in five years), to a 93-loss season, to this year when the Royals went 75-87. He is confident that the Royals have made huge strides in the lower realms of the minor leagues and, especially, in Latin America. He’s reasonably proud of the incremental improvement. He knew this would not be an overnight project.

Still, Moore crossed a line this season. In Kansas City — because the payroll’s lower than most and the team has not been especially good in years — it’s easy to get stuck on the “Hey, we’re getting better” treadmill. They pick up a few new players, pray for a couple of young guys to emerge, and say, “Hey we’re getting better.”

Why shouldn't they sign Burnett or Dunn or Burrell? Adding a good player is a good idea if they don't let it hamstring them in the future. Dunn would actually be a good choice for them, I think.

If Dayton values OBP so much, why they didn't give Ka'aihue and his .456 OBP more of a look in September? The dude drew 104 walks in the minors and hit a homer every 11 ABs, and was given just 21 ABs the final month.

This is just Dayton being Dayton. Get used to it.

Moore’s main point is this: Things are going to change around here. He’s had enough.

Yeah, KC was almost as bad as the Tigers this year. Almost.

Not sure if it's in the article, but the latest BA issue reports that the Royals re-assigned longtime scouting director Deric Ladnier and replaced him with JJ Picollo as part the "things are going to change" process.

Ladnier's first draft was the Colt Giffen/Roscoe Crosby boondoggle in 2001. The Royals have hit pretty well on some more recent 1sts, but the overall lack of depth of prospects generated was cited as an important reason for the change.

Picollo came to the Royals from the Braves with Moore. Ironically, Ladnier is an ex-Brave as well although he arrived several years before Moore. Perhaps a Schuerholz recommendation to his old team?

Schuerholz left the Royals in tatters, didn't he?

Ownership since Mr. K passed has been in tatters, Schuerholz just saw it coming.

so

dayton moore has "had enough"

fascinating

and remembering that HE is the one who signed jose guillen for 12 mill a year - and having almost no money coming from glass he plans to do like WHAT now?

Ka'aihue didn't get more September at bats because they were trying to figure out if Ryan Shealy could hit major league pitching, and he ended up with a .301/.354/.603 line. Ka'aihue was up mostly as a reward for his minor league season.

I am a little concerned with the ability to change the team's OBP without changing the personnel. Some of these guys are going to need to shift to utility roles or get traded away


John Buck 370 AB .304 OBP
Joey Gathright 279 AB .311 OBP
Mark Teahen 511 AB .313 OBP
Jose Guillen 598 AB .300 OBP
Billy Butler 443 AB .324 OBP
Miguel Olivo 306 AB .278 OBP
Tony Pena 225 AB .189 OBP
Esteban German 216 AB .303 OBP


I don't recall if Olivo is still under contract. Ideally, I think you'd like to

Sign:
Slugging outfielder
OBP oriented catcher
second baseman(? depends on whether Callaspo can hold down the job)

Trade:
Guillen
Gathright
Olivo (if under contract)
one of Shealy/Ka'aihue

Demote:
Teahen
Buck

Release:
Pena
German

Promote:
Callaspo (to starter at second base)
Shealy/Ka'aihue

Wait for improvement from:
Gordon
Butler

Thank God for:
Aviles

He's still young, I know, and his minor league numbers are excellent, but Butler was SO bad this year. Bad at defense, bad at running, bad at hitting. He had to be one of the worst players in the league to get as many plate appearances as he did.

Ka'aihue didn't get more September at bats because they were trying to figure out if Ryan Shealy could hit major league pitching, and he ended up with a .301/.354/.603 line

They should know the answer to that question already. Shealy will be 29 next year, an old 29 at that. In his 500 ML ABs, he's got a career 96 OPS+. He's had some good years at AAA (those stats need a PCL adjustment) but hasn't hit over 284 the last 3 years there. Sure, better than Gload and he could probably give you an average-ish year for a 1B. So a fine placeholder to give Ka'aihue half of a season or more at AAA.

I think it's premature to talk about trading Soria or Greinke in the abstract. The objective in the offseason should be to improve the offense. Maybe particular ways of improving the offense will require trading those guys, maybe they won't. Maybe someone will bowl you over with an offer next week. But the emphasis should be getting what the Royals want. The worst case scenario is something like the Santana trade, where nothing could go forward for the Twins until they knew what they were getting for Santana. Focus on getting what you want, not trading particular players.

I don't know what trading or releasing guys like Pena, Gathright, Olivo and German would do. They are all minimum wage players who can contribute in certain limited ways.
The problem of course is that the Royals suck and these guys are being asked to be primary contributors.
Getting rid of them wouldn't help the team out at all. You'd just be replacing them with some crappier player.

They should know the answer to that question already. Shealy will be 29 next year, an old 29 at that. In his 500 ML ABs, he's got a career 96 OPS+. He's had some good years at AAA (those stats need a PCL adjustment) but hasn't hit over 284 the last 3 years there. Sure, better than Gload and he could probably give you an average-ish year for a 1B. So a fine placeholder to give Ka'aihue half of a season or more at AAA.

Despite this great year it doesn't seem like Kaaihue is a great bet to be much, if any, better than Shealy.

Why would it be a good idea to sign Dunn, an old-player skills guy about to enter his decline phase, in a year when tons of big money teams will be throwing tons of money around and your team completely sucks and isn't likely to be successful for several years? More to the point, I guess, it not that they shouldn't go after those specific players (though they shouldn't), but that Moore already has a pretty bad history of overpaying for players that don't get the team any closer to the playoffs--even Meche was an iffy decision, not because he hasn't been worth the money in the abstract, but I'm not sure that he's worth it to the Royals (though he might be). Therefore, if I'm a Royals fan, I really don't want to hear that Moore is tired of rebuilding.

Demote:
Teahen

I don't really know if that's really neccessary. He really had some bad luck on balls in play this year. If that evens out next year, he'll at least put a league-average OBP. I do think that someone needs to work with him on generating more loft. He obviously has some pop, but he's averaging about a 50% groundball rate for his career. That's just way too high for a guy that doesn't have Ichiro! type speed. It's actually kind of suprising he managed to hit 15 homeruns putting so few balls into the air.

I question his value to this team however. I think he could do very well, as he is now, being used the same way Hinske was this year. Kind of an everyday utility guy; can play every corner position and can play center in a pinch. If another team sees him the same way, then it would probably make sense to trade him. Otherwise, keep him around and see if his swing can be adjusted to get the ball in the air a bit more and see if that turns him into an acceptable everyday corner outfielder.

This fascination with on-base percentage must be new, because I am relatively certain Moore threw $36 million at Jose Guillen last winter.

But seriously, I think (potentially) whiffing on top-2 picks in the draft in back to back years really set this franchise back. I know the jury is still out on Gordon, but it's already clear he's not going to stick at 3rd and no doubt it was a mistake for him to skip AAA. Hochevar's performance has been singularly uninspiring since he was drafted. Hindsight is 20/20, but I have a feeling that Dayton would be in better spirits if he had Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun as cornerstones.

Elston Gunn Posted: October 05, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#2969190)
Why would it be a good idea to sign Dunn, an old-player skills guy about to enter his decline phase, in a year when tons of big money teams will be throwing tons of money around and your team completely sucks and isn't likely to be successful for several years? More to the point, I guess, it not that they shouldn't go after those specific players (though they shouldn't), but that Moore already has a pretty bad history of overpaying for players that don't get the team any closer to the playoffs--even Meche was an iffy decision, not because he hasn't been worth the money in the abstract, but I'm not sure that he's worth it to the Royals (though he might be). Therefore, if I'm a Royals fan, I really don't want to hear that Moore is tired of rebuilding.

So, what's your solution then? DM should just sit on his hands, even if signing an FA wouldn't block anyone, even if the signing is worth the money, even if the owner is willing to spend the money?

Meche isn't worth it to the Royals? If Moore decides to trade him, the Royals are probably likely to get a good return. You think all those teams that need pitching wouldn't want Meche?

Should the Royals just throw their hands up, and lose >100 games every year, while waiting for the young players to develope?

and remembering that HE is the one who signed jose guillen for 12 mill a year - and having almost no money coming from glass he plans to do like WHAT now?

How did I miss this? 12 mil? Per? Really? BBRef doesn't have 2008 player salaries, at least not for Guillen. C'mon--no one could be that dumb. For how many years???

Hereis the best salary and service time site around. Guillen is signed for 2 more years at $12m each.

Thanks, and Yikes!!

Guillen was better than Emil Brown this year, though.

I know the jury is still out on Gordon, but it's already clear he's not going to stick at 3rd and no doubt it was a mistake for him to skip AAA.

Why is he not going to stick at third? He's never struck me as a poor defender, and it looks like he's ready to break out -- he OPS'd close to .900 in the second half and (subjectively speaking) looked a whole lot better at the plate.

Guillen was better than Emil Brown this year, though.

So was your mom.

Guillen's departure from Seattle is interesting, contractwise:

# 1 year/$5.5M (2007), plus 2008 option

* signed as a free agent 12/06
* $1M signing bonus
* 07:$4M, 08:$9M club option ($0.5M buyout)
* Seattle declined 2008 club option 11/2/07
* if club exercises 2008 option, Guillen may void & forfeit buyout
* if club does not exercise 2008 option, Guillen may exercise 2008 option for $5M, and club may void & pay buyout


Seattle paid him a $500k buyout in 12/06 to avoid paying him $8.5M to play for them for a year. But if they did that, Guillen had the option to void the contract but then not receive the option. So they could have weaseled out of the buyout if they were confident that HE would think he could top 1/$9 on the FA market and exercise the avoid.

KC then signs Guillen to 3/$36.

That is a large difference in evaluation. Is his seemingly hard to deal with personality the reason Seattle didn't re-sign him?

He's still young, I know, and his minor league numbers are excellent, but Butler was SO bad this year. Bad at defense, bad at running, bad at hitting. He had to be one of the worst players in the league to get as many plate appearances as he did.

He hit 817 in the 2nd half as a 22 year old. Not great, but something.

Why is he not going to stick at third? He's never struck me as a poor defender, and it looks like he's ready to break out -- he OPS'd close to .900 in the second half and (subjectively speaking) looked a whole lot better at the plate.

He rates out horribly in plus/minus, RZR, BP's FRRA, Dial's fielding metric and just about any other standard you might chose. There was also an article by Rany (and a thread about it here) where he speculates a move to an outfield corner for Gordon.

However you want to slice it, Gordon's first two seasons have been a major disappointment. His WARP1 has been 2.8 and 3.1 respectively. Maybe he will pan out eventually, but his stock has taken a nosedive in the last couple of years and the threshold for him to be a valuable hitter increases quite a bit if he's relegated to left or right field.

Meche isn't worth it to the Royals? If Moore decides to trade him, the Royals are probably likely to get a good return. You think all those teams that need pitching wouldn't want Meche?

Okay, I've thought about it some more, and I'll concede that Meche has been worth it. Whether I said it clearly or not, the thrust of my argument though is that bad teams don't rebuild through free agency or by trading young players for better-at-the-moment veterans, which are generally what I think you do when you're "tired of rebuilding." Are you really suggesting they make a big splash in free agency and go after a Dunn or a Burrell or a Burnett, or worse, a mediocre Guillen-type?

I don't know what the answer is. Unless they develop some good young players, the Royals are going to be bad for a very long time no matter what, but if their goal is to win a championship or make the playoffs, dipping into the free agent market, where the players are 27-29 and almost always overpriced is not the way to get there. Does anyone disagree with this? If so, can you please explain? Are they just trying to sign players that will be useful trade bait?

Gordon
Soria
Greinke

I feel the Brewers are going to be making some moves of their own.

Weeks
JJ Hardy (one of these 2)
Hall
Hart
Prince

I can see anyone of these players being dealt. Quite possibly 2 of them. I already know Melvin/Ash have stated a desire to acquire a younger starting pitcher, the assumption is Milwaukee would deal Weeks/Hardy for one. But it is clear weeks has lost that kind of trade pop. Hardy had an excellent offensive season, I don't think Milwaukee can afford to trade him and keep Weeks around. Escobar might be ready for SS soon, but 3b is a real problem for Milwaukee. Hardy can move there, perhaps. Hall is near untradable and Hart is puzzling. The Brewers are actually very shallow in OF talent.

Royals fans, thoughts on Prince/Hardy/prospect for Soria/Gordon? OR Grienke/Gordon for Prince/Hardy/prospect

That's a lot of the future to be tied up in two players without a position in Prince and Butler, but, at this point, you can't assume you're going to get what you thought you were from Butler, and a great closer just isn't all that valuable to them. I think they'd almost have to do the Soria incarnation of that deal, but not the Grienke one.

A Moustakas-Aviles-Hardy-Prince IF would look pretty nice someday soon, but they would have to be pretty confident that Hosmer can handle RF, which KLaw seemed to think he could. Or if Butler continues to suck, Moustakas-Aviles-Hardy-Hosmer with Prince as DH. Not that I'm convinced that Aviles or Moustakas are sure things (or Hosmer for that matter), but it would give them upside for the first time in a while, more than I think Gordon/Soria offer them.

Prince needs to be in the AL now.

Royals fans, thoughts on Prince/Hardy/prospect for Soria/Gordon? OR Grienke/Gordon for Prince/Hardy/prospect

HW or NTNGod could comment better than I, but I think Brewers fans would be up in arms about either of these trades. I sense Fielder is very popular and he's only starting to get expensive. Now Prince/Hardy/Weeks and 1-2 prospects for Greinke, Soria and Gordon ... maybe. Still puts Milwaukee in a bit of a bind counting on Gordon, Escobar and Gamel to all develop right quick (before Greinke and Soria are gone).

Also the LaPorta trade makes me think the Brewers are planning to hold onto Prince for at least 1-2 more years, barring a meteoric rise from Gamel. I assume they will trade Prince eventually -- otherwise they would have bought out his arb years already.

I'm not a big fan of it from the Royals standpoint either.

The Royals may not be THAT far from respectability. They had a 101 ERA+ this year despite lousy years from Bannister and Hochevar. The offense was putrid but digging up something close to league-average for CF, RF and 1B and not starting Tony Pena half a year gets you close to average. This is a team that desperately needs to find a Carlos Pena type. Unfortunately, judging from Moore's track record, they're more likely to offer Nady 4/60.

Whether I said it clearly or not, the thrust of my argument though is that bad teams don't rebuild through free agency or by trading young players for better-at-the-moment veterans, which are generally what I think you do when you're "tired of rebuilding." Are you really suggesting they make a big splash in free agency and go after a Dunn or a Burrell or a Burnett, or worse, a mediocre Guillen-type?

Why can't they try to draft and develope well, while signing an FA or 2 here and there, provided he won't block anyone, and is worth the contract? The Guillen signing was obviously stupid.

Let's assume they sign Burnett, for what he is "worth". He won't really be blocking anyone. Greinke and Meche are good. It would be stupid not to give Hochevar every chance to succeed, given the pick they used on him. Davies and Bannister are filler type pitchers.