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The Top 100 list is visible along the right-hand side of the page if you aren't an Insider, but I couldn't click on any of the scouting reports, Top 25 or otherwise.
Taylor, Drabek, Freeman, Leake, Montgomery - too low
Pedro Alvarez at #35 is flat out ridiculous. I get the concern over his streakiness, defense and K rates, but c'mon, the guy was one of the best power hitters in the minors last year and had a terrific college career.
The same could be said at Chris Carter at #33. Just a notch above Eric Hosmer? Really? Is there anyone that would trade Alvarez or Carter for Hosmer?
18. Casey Kelly, A-ball pitcher with excellent results, stuff probably not ace-quality
32. Ryan Westmoreland, toolsy HS OF with a good summer in short-season A, ranked ahead of Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter
53. Anthony Rizzo, wait, he's a prospect?
56. Lars Anderson, this is justifiable, I guess, the tools are still there, hope Law's right
86. Ryan Kalish
91. Jose Iglesias
98. Junichi Tazawa
I sure hope Law's right about everything. I wouldn't have been in any way surprised if all of Rizzo, Anderson, Kalish, Iglesias, and Tazawa missed the list.
EDIT: perhaps, based on #2, it's Alvarez's and Carter's rankings that are oddly low. #32 is still a good 20-30 spots higher than I would have guessed WMD would land, though.
He's a toolbox. During the game he just opens up the box and pulls them out</John Hart>
All of whom added by trade in the past 6 months or so. At this rate the Jays will have 10 in the top 100 by May!
Meow!
So Hudson's ceiling is a four or five -- keeping in mind that the league average four and five starters put up ERAs 5.50 -- despite the fact that CHONE and ZiPS have him, as a 23 year old, pitching anywhere from slightly-below-league-average to better-than-league-average respectively? That's harsh.
Well, he's a right-hander who doesn't have overpowering stuff. Those guys tend not to project well.
If he turns into a serviceable MLB 4th starter, I'll be happy.
It's certainly not overpowering but it's not like he's a soft-tosser, either. Fangraphs has his average fastball velocity at just a tick under 94 MPH and IIRC from the minor league reports this year, most readings had him in the 91-93 range. I don't recall overpowering breaking stuff, either, but this is a guy who struck out over ten batters per nine innings last year.
I don't know... am I really being unreasonable/fanboyish in thinking Hudson not being in the top 100 is harsh? This is a guy that ZiPS is projecting to pitch 150 innings of a 107 ERA+. Even if league average-ness is his ceiling, I'd have to say his probability of reaching it is a lot higher than many guys on the list and as such his expected value should be reasonably high (although this likely isn't the formula KL is going by).
Yup. FTFA.
Flores is a 17 (now 18) year old who held his own at full season ball with a low strikeout rate. If he was able to stay at SS (or even 2B), he'd probably be in the top 25.
It's hard to live in that 91-93 range unless you have incredible movement and secondary pitches. Does Hudson have that?
Ahem.
He was one of the best power hitters in the minors, once he reached AA.
Now, wrist injuries to hitters take time to heal so it could be that his wrist was healthier later in the year than earlier but it is still puzzling that a guy like that could hit .247 in high-A.
It is just as concerning as his AA stint is encouraging.
That was my reaction too. The kid's a great story and has done well so far but nothing I've read about him is even remotely close to that high. It seems that in general the take is he's somewhere around 6-8 in the Sox' system.
They're four spots apart. That's probably within the margin of error.
I can't find this, can someone post a link?
From Law's writeup:
the worst part of the HOF debates, writers (and posters) have to #### all over very good or great players careers based their our own personal standards.
This year and last year's Top 100 lists have been some of the worst in some time. Either there's a dip in the incoming talent or scouting reports are just getting a lot less exciting.
As a Jays fan I've been spending the last couple months trying to convince myself that I'd rather have Wallace. So far unsuccessfully, but I might get there eventually.
23 - Jenrry Mejia
41 - Wilmer Flores
61 - Ike Davis
73 - F-Mart
I can't say I'd take Flores or Davis before F-Mart even with all his injury concerns.
He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant
Wouldn't that also be a shot at those statistical blockheads at the Hall of Merit?
Keith seems like a nice enough fellow when he posts here, but I don't understand the need to take these types of shots. The comment in Post 12 seems like it could just as easily be found in the collected works of Richard Griffin, whose darts at JP tend to be received rather frostily around these parts.
Fastball and changeup, yes. Seems like he should have more life on his slider than he does. If he can make that reliable, he's a good middle-of-the-rotation candidate.
I don't mind that part of Law's opinion. This is a head-scratcher:
He pitched 67 excellent innings at A-ball. He pitched 80 excellent innings at Double-A and Triple-A. And then he more than survived in 24 big-league innings at the end of his first pro season.
I'm sorry (and I have the feeling Law isn't sorry at all), but disregarding four of six months is a pretty unconvincing argument.
If they're statistically ignorant, yes. Most of the HoM voters aren't statistically ignorant, though.
So if you vote for Dawson for the Hall of Merit, you're a deep-thinking stathead who understands that Hawk's time in Montreal as a damn good hitter who patrolled a mean centerfield. But if you vote him for the Hall of Fame, you're an idiot who voted for a guy with a .323 lifetime OBP. Got it.
As for me, if the HoM guys deemed Dawson (barely) worthy of eternal recognition, then I'm going to give the HoF guys a pass for thinking likewise.
That said, Law is on target too; he's still a guy whose BABIP at AA was preposterous, who can't hit lefthanded pitching and who strikes out a million times, and he still has quite a lot of work to do to become a good major league hitter. But his projection of Bobby Bonilla Clone (minus the switch hitting) still looks pretty accurate and reasonably likely to me.
In other Legendary Superstars of the Altoona Curve news, Jose Tabata is not really a prospect. No power, has to play in a corner and won't be a useful major league player unless he can hit .310. The Pirates rushing him to AAA last year puzzled me more than their rushing Alvarez to AA.
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