The Mets are in a weird place this offseason. They could have a great offseason and still lose. They could have a mediocre offseason and win,

Don't h8, appreciate.

The obvious answer for the Mets to sign Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson before Dec. 1st so they can give the Dodgers free draft picks.

"We're gonna need a bigger boat."

Is Klapisch always this phenomenally stupid? For the same payroll as last year (at least, as listed by Cot's) of $149,373,987 the Mets can assemble a team that at least on paper is as good as if not superior to the Phillies. Two good, durable starters, average or better regulars at two of 1b, 2b and c, and a terrific OFer (even Holliday) can be added with that money.

Two good, durable starters, average or better regulars at two of 1b, 2b and c, and a terrific OFer (even Holliday) can be added with that money.

Who? Where are these starters going to come from? The free agent class of this year is remarkably weak, and contains a lot of old, hurt, flawed, or old, hurt and flawed players. Here's the list. See who you can find, and what you think it'll actually cost to land them.

The MLB Network aired the 1982 All-Star Game from Montreal the other day. The Expos had four starters, and filled the time with frontline talent like Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Steve Rogers (who started the game and won the ERA title that year), and Al Oliver (who won the batting title that year).

Of course, that team never made it further than one measly LCS, in part because they would do things like field a double play combo of Doug Flynn and Chris Speier - both on the dark side of 30 - and have a bench heavily relying on players like Brad Mills, Dan Norman and Jerry White, people who basically weren't good at anything.

Wait, what were we talking about?

Will the Mets (or any team, for that matter) go anywhere upwards with Minaya in charge after a couple years? Colour me sceptical - and an OxEngDict speller.

Are we sure that Amaro is a better GM than Minaya is? They're both swung deals getting elite starting pitching with Santana and Lee, but Amaro hasn't been able to convince Lee to sign an extension yet, and Minaya has. They both couldn't figure out that their bullpen was a mess until it was too late, and they both like old, washed up players(Sheffield, Alou, Moyer, Stairs, etc.)

They're both swung deals getting elite starting pitching with Santana and Lee, but Amaro hasn't been able to convince Lee to sign an extension yet, and Minaya has.

I'm sure Lee would listen if you offered him 6 years, $137M.

Who? Where are these starters going to come from? The free agent class of this year is remarkably weak, and contains a lot of old, hurt, flawed, or old, hurt and flawed players. Here's the list. See who you can find, and what you think it'll actually cost to land them.

Here's one that fits those parameters, from AmazinAvenue's AAOP Contest. There are many others:

"INTRODUCTION:

My overall plan is straightforward and uses the muscle of our $150 million budget to build the deepest rotation in the majors along with the potential to be above average at every position. We'll add through free agency the best position player available, add two extremely reliable, above average starting pitchers, then trade or nontender below average starters or significant crash candidates and replace them with steady regulars so that unlike 2007 and 2008 positions such as C, 2B, LF and RF don't drag down the core. 2006, 2007, and 2008 proved the Mets core forms the nucleus of a playoff caliber team. That core is maintained and enhanced in my plan. It also allows our minor leaguers another year to develop, puts our young players in the best position to succeed, and adds a core player to get us through the possibility that Beltran and Reyes leave or simply aren't worth resigning after 2011. After 2010 salaries I give each players projected WAR for 2010 which I typically calculate on a 3-2-1 scale, adjusting for time lost to injury.

By the way, I'm going to spend the maximum allowed in this contest because the Wilpons did not get hurt in Madoff's scheme, they DID get a present from the taxpayers of a 600 million dollar ballpark, and the Mets, our team, is currently a joke. In a purely business sense that's very bad form and can be overcome in part by making the playoffs in 2010. If the Mets, the largest market team in the NL, decide to play second fiddle to the Phillies by going cheap next year they'll take a short term hit and may well take a long term hit in revenues and in the fan base.

But all that is secondary: we're fans. We want to win, we want to have fun winning, and we want to root for players who have been brought up through our system. My plan gives us an excellent chance of winning 95 games, going deep into the postseason, and retains every single one of our good minor leaguers.



POSITION PLAYERS

1B: Lyle Overbay I do the rumored threeway Overbay deal, taking on his $7 million in salary for 2010 while getting rid of Castillo's $6 million salary for 2010 and 2011. This accomplishes five things: By limiting Overbay to facing exclusively RHP (.284/. 380/ .467/ .847 lifetime) I get a short term deal on an above average platoon player, let Nick Evans do what Nick Evans does best: mash a left-handed pitcher as the other side of the 1B platoon (.320/ .382/ .490/ .872 lifetime), don't rush Ike Davis, get rid of a collapse candidate in Castillo, and give Daniel Murphy a low pressure year and 350 ABs at the corners and as a ph to find out whether he can become a major league hitter--and if he isn't he still gets added experience towards being a fine bench player.

Salary: $7 million WAR: 2.0



2B: Placido Polanco With Castillo gone I sign Placido Polanco to a one year, 4.6 million dollar deal. Polanco's been making 4.6 million every year for years now, and while his bat is fading (OPS+'s of 121, 102, 88) he picked up the Gold Glove and earned it, meaning that unlike Castillo he's no collapse candidate even as his glove will go a long way towards turning Mike Pelfrey and his 1.7 ground ball to fly ball ratio back into a top starter.

Salary: $4.6 million WAR: 3.5



SS: Jose Reyes Jose's goin' nowhere.

Salary: $9.375 million WAR: 5.0



3B: David Wright Wright stays.

Salary: $10.25 million WAR: 6.5



C: Greg Zaun In a budget cutting move the Rays declined their 2 million option on Zaun. To give Thole another year to develop, to relegate Santos to backup--where he's an asset rather than a liability--and to all but guarantee average or better production behind the plate I'll offer Zaun what the Rays would not.

Salary: $2 million WAR: 1.5



LF: Matt Holliday Holliday is an authentic star, and Scott Boras notwithstanding neither the Red Sox or the Yankees are going to push the bidding into Teixeira territory. I'll go with the reasonable 6/102 figure that appears in various publications. In picking up Holliday I'm going after a ballplayer that improves our defense, solidifies our lineup by giving us four excellent hitters, and becomes part of the core lasting past the end of Beltran's and Reyes's contracts in 2011. No well run, large market team should ever go through a signifcant rebuilding phase, and maintaining a core of four or five excellent players means that with the right complementary players the playoffs are within reach every year.

Salary: $17 million WAR: 6.5



CF: Carlos Beltran Trade Carlos? No way!

Salary: $20.07 million WAR: 4.8



RF: Angel Pagan

Pagan proved last year he has what it takes to start, is a CFer playing RF in spacious CitiField, and can slide over to CF when Beltran needs a day off, giving our lineup flexibility. Pagan's development in 2009 gives us a great opportunity to get average or above production for the position from a ML RFer for around the ML minimum. 2009 was Angel's first arbitration year, and he avoided arb by agreeing to 575,000 plus minor incentives. I don't know what to expect here, but 1 million seems reasonable.

Salary: $1 million. WAR: 2.0



With the above moves I've eliminated 2009's below average production at 1B, 2B, LF, and RF, traded or nontendered collapse candidates Castillo and Francoeur, and put Nick Evans, Daniel Murphy, and Omir Santos into roles in which they're likely to succeed rather than be overtaxed and fail.

Since we already have four backups in place that suit our needs and they're all inexpensive, I'll stay with Evans, Murphy, Santos, and with Wilson Valdez's glove up the middle. Evans platoons with Overbay at 1b, and both Evans and Murphy are capable fill-ins at the corners. Pagan can slide over to CF when Beltran's out and Holliday can play CF in a pinch, but I'll keep a good CF glove in AAA just in case. That allows me to keep Fernando Tatis on the 25-man roster. A supersub with an above average ML bat is hard to come by. Tatis took 1.7 million last year, and since it was a down year compared to 2008 I think he'll accept the same again.



Nick Evans: Salary: $0.403 million WAR 0.8

Daniel Murphy: Salary: $0.450 million WAR 0.7

Omir Santos: Salary: $0.400 million WAR 0.4

Wilson Valdez: Salary: $0.400 WAR: 0.4

Fernando Tatis: Salary: $1.7 million WAR 1.5
Position Players: Total Salary: $72.865 million WAR: 36.0


PITCHING - STARTERS

The problem with signing John Lackey at something like 5/85 is that picking him up precludes any other significant move, and we need to be entirely ready to part company with Oliver Perez if Perez doesn't quickly improve on his dismal performance of last year. With a thoroughly unreliable rotation after Santana and Pelfrey (whom I like very much as a rebound candidate, especially with our improved defense), it's essential to add two durable starters who are both very good bets to be above average.

I believe too many AAOPlans have gambled unnecessarily on the starting rotation. The Mets, when solid players surround the core, are an extremely good ballclub. Two durable starters will turn the rotation from a weakness to a strength, and with our large market budget there's no need to take risks. Fortunately for us Cincinnati is looking to get rid of several of their high priced players, including Bronson Arroyo, who is among the most durable pitchers in the majors--he's thrown over 1000 innings during the last five years. His price tag is a little on the high side, but since it's for one year (with a valuable club option in 2011) there's very little downside. Since the Reds are looking to get rid of him in what is essentially a salary dump Arroyo will be available for at most two C prospects. In that vein I'm also adding the much maligned free agent Jason Marquis, who has practically thrown himself at the Mets this offseason, offering him 2/14. According to FanGraphs Marquis has been worth $32.2 million over the last three years. Even if his reverts to his more typical 2007-2008 level after his career year in 2009 Marquis will be well worth his contract.

Johan Santana: $21 million WAR: 4.2

Mike Pelfrey: $0.500 million (club option) WAR: 2.6

Bronson Arroyo: $11 million WAR: 2.4

Jason Marquis: $7 million WAR: 2.4

Oliver Perez: $12 million WAR: 1.5 (for our combination of 5th starters including Maine, Niese, Nieve, and Figueroa)
Starting Rotation: Salary: $51.5 million WAR: 13.1


PITCHING - BULLPEN

Another benefit of adding durability to the rotation is that it greatly improves the bullpen. Even if Perez flames out we still have three of Maine / Niese / Nieve / Figueroa to work out of the pen. Figgy's been a terrific fill in in the last starting slot over 2008 and 2009, so the possibilitiy of Maine, Niese, and Nieve in the pen turns a potential weakness into a real strength. All three of these guys have started, so I'm not concerned about an overtaxed pen undermining the club. I'm keeping Rodriguez, Feliciano, Niese, and Parnell from last year while stashing Stokes, Nieve, Green, and Misch in AAA. My one FA addition is Kiko Calero. He's wild, but consistently so, and not to the point where the walks destroy the value of the strikeouts. I want one more K guy in a setup role and Kiko's it, for 2/5.

Francisco Rodriguez: $12.17 million WAR: 1.6

Kiko Calero: $2.5 million WAR: 0.9

Pedro Feliciano: $2.5 million (arb raise) WAR: 0.6

John Maine: $2.6 (after last year I think he'll get the same again) WAR: 1.4

Jon Niese: $0.45 million WAR: 0.4

Bobby Parnell: $0.45 million WAR: 0.4

Nelson Figueroa: $0.50 WAR: 0.5 (as a reliever Figgy turns the average MLer into a weak-hitting MI. Lifetime OPS against in relief: .247/ .321/ .391/ .712)



Bullpen Salary: $21.17 million WAR: 5.8

Rotation Salary: $51.5 million WAR: 12.9

Position Players: $72.865 million WAR: 36.0
Total Salaries: $145.535 million Total WAR: 54.7

Adding our WAR to the replacement standard of 30% predicts
54.7 + 48.6 = 103.3 WINS in 2010

(continued from above):

CONCLUSION

With an extremely solid front four followed by *five* potentially respectable options after them our starting pitching goes from very shaky to being one of the best rotations in the majors, one that has a very good chance of being above average in every rotation spot.

By adding Holliday and getting rid of weak spots in the lineup we have four true stars as position players, and at the other four spots can fully expect average or better production. Average to excellent production at every position is something very few teams can boast. As for our starting pitching, by adding two durable starters we give ourselves a terrific chance of winning more than 90 games. Earlier this offseason I had thought we would need to gamble with the rotation, but by eliminating weaknesses among the position players, a solid, deep rotation is more than sufficient to get us to the playoffs and take us deep into the postseason. And with as many as nine starting pitchers (who also give depth to the bullpen), and solidity throughout the lineup, we're in much, much better shape in 2010 to handle injuries.

Finally, it's time to for our Mets to again be the big dog in the National League. Many posters seem to have concluded that we're in desperate shape, can't go toe to toe with the Phillies, and need to gamble. That's just not the case. The Mets' 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons demonstrated what a strong core can accomplish even when weighed down by poor signings and outright mistakes on the roster. Bolstering the core and eliminating question marks make this version of the 2010 Mets monsters with the potential to dominate.

Finally, my plan leaves over $4 million for contingencies and negotiations. I won't cut it too fine so if that means we can take on salary in midseason, so much the better.

ROSTER RECAP

Reyes ss
Overbay 1b (.380 OBP v rhp)
Beltran cf
Wright 3b
Holliday lf
Pagan rf
Polanco 2b
Zaun c

Evans 1b, lf, rf
Murphy 1b, 3b, lf, rf
Valdez 2b, ss
Tatis 1b, 2b, ss, 3b, lf, rf
Santos c


Santana sp
Pelfrey sp
Arroyo sp
Marquis sp
Perez/Maine/Niese/Figueroa/Nieve sp

Rodriguez rp
Calero rp
Feliciano rp
Maine rp
Niese rp
Parnell rp
Figueroa rp

Jesus Christ, you didn't need to post all of that if its in the link.

Which is more conceivable to happen in 2010 -- the Nationals reaching 75 wins, or the Mets reaching 85 wins? And which of those teams would stand to benefit more by adding top members of this year's class of free agents?

Jesus Christ, you didn't need to post all of that if its in the link.

Oh, quitcher whinin', is your scroll button broken?

I like Polanco, and I like Overbay, but I hate Zaun. Hate hate hate. Also, adding up all that to 103 wins seems somewhat unrealistic.

103 is unrealistic, but if Omar gets this team to 87 wins, he'll look like a genius. I don't see us beating the Phillies next year. In a weak year, 87ish wins maaaaay be enough to eek out a WC, though probably not.

That roster does look pretty good, and much better than I imagined the Mets were capable of, but a lot of things have to break right for that to happen (even assuming the front office is smart enough to WANT to go in that direction). But wouldn't every team (or at least the big market teams) look great if you spent their money perfectly? What can you do with the Phillies spending their money efficiently?

2 world series appearances in 2 years?

It was Gillick's team last year, and this Phillies team is mostly composed from the same 08 team. Maintaining a team might be just as hard as rebuilding but to say that the 2009 was fully Amaro's team, that I can't agree with.

103 is unrealistic, but if Omar gets this team to 87 wins, he'll look like a genius.

It really depends. If Santana, Beltran, Wright, and Reyes all stay healthy and/or rebound to their 2008 levels and the Mets still only win 87 games, I don't think he'll get a ton of credit. It'll be different if those guys don't stay healthy though.

That said, I think Omar needs a playoff appearance to keep his job and I don't think that will happen.

all but guarantee average or better production behind the plate

Sure, he had a nice year this season, but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't call a 39-year-old Gregg Zaun almost guaranteed to be average or better.

Jesus Christ, you didn't need to post all of that if its in the link

You know perfectly well that only about 20% of people on here ever actually click links (and 73% of us make up statistics); posting something in the thread itself is the only way most readers will ever see it.

The Mets' 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons demonstrated what a strong core can accomplish even when weighed down by poor signings and outright mistakes on the roster. Bolstering the core and eliminating question marks make this version of the 2010 Mets monsters with the potential to dominate.

The Phillies have an excellent core especially if Hamels and Rollins rebound and there are a lot of questions surrounding the Mets' core. Santana is coming of surgery, Reyes basically missed an entire season, and who knows where Wright's power went in 2009. I don't think the Mets' potential to dominate is something the Phillies should be scared of.

a bench heavily relying on players like Brad Mills, Dan Norman and Jerry White, people who basically weren't good at anything.

Wait, what were we talking about?

The Mets, so we're on topic.

Bolstering the core and eliminating question marks make this version of the 2010 Mets monsters with the potential to dominate.

The Mets had no core in 2009 and I don't really expect it all to show up for 2010.

posting something in the thread itself is the only way most readers will ever see it.

And how many will scroll past it? I sure did. And when I look at it now, I see no one has objected to paying $11 million for Bronson Arroyo, which is a sure sign nobody has actually read the damn thing.

tol: if there's one pattern the Mets have shown over the decades, its that if they get a guy like Overbay he will play 150 games.

If Reyes and Wright are finished as championship quality players, then this is a major rebuilding process. Given that "you can't rebuild in New York", the process can be a very long one.

I hate Zaun. Hate hate hate.

Why? I'm hoping they sign him.

Or, you could have just condensed it into a readable format:

C: Zaun (free agent, $2M/1 yr)
1B: Overbay (traded for L. Castillo)
2B: Polanco (FA, $4.6M/1 yr)
3B: Wright
SS: Reyes
LF: Holliday (FA, $102M/6 yr)
CF: Beltran
RF: Pagan
Bench: N. Evans, Dan Murphy, O. Santos, W. Valdez, Tatis
SP: Johan, Pelfrey, Arroyo (traded for "at most two C prospects"), Marquis (FA, $14M/2 yr), Ol. Perez
RP: K-Rod, Calero (FA, $5M/2 yr), Feliciano, Maine, Niese, Parnell, Figueroa
Total salary: $145M

My main problem with this is that it places a huge emphasis on relying on players past their primes to repeat what they did last year. This has often backfired on teams, and the Mets' record in particular with such a strategy has been horrific.

I am not even that nuts about giving Holliday huge money, although it's not like I'd cry. I don't feel like he is quite a franchise player, even though I know there is an argument that he is.

I'm not sure Polanco is really appreciably better than Castillo, but I suppose that is not a key part of this plan, since signing Delgado would probably not be any more difficult than signing Polanco. Honestly, if we could trade Castillo for Milton Bradley, I dunno why we wouldn't then just keep Bradley, as opposed to trading him for Overbay. (And, in the Jays' position, I'd be a lot happier with Randy Ruiz and his salary as my DH than I would with Milton and his salary. I guess that's another story.)

All that said, I'd be ok with this. It's a coherent plan, which is probably the single most important thing, and it fills all the holes. But I don't think it's nearly as "safe" an approach as this author seems to think. And I still don't think this team beats the Phillies. I would tend to take the exact opposite approach, actually, and concentrate on players with high upsides (and downsides), rather than "reliable" types.

I hate Zaun. Hate hate hate.
Why? I'm hoping they sign him.

I spoke a bit wrongly - I hate the CONCEPT of Zaun, the theory of paying for an old catcher - not Zaun himself. And as half-crappy as he's been he's getting older, and the thought of him being a black hole in the lineup when we have younger options is to me, personally very very irritating. This has been gone over endlessly, but I'm only in favor of an old catcher if he literally plays no more than 50% of the games. I want Thole to be up and playing regularly. Yes, the opponents think he's not ready and it will destroy him. I disagree. But if we get someone else to catch, I'd like it to be someone not so close to his eminent decline. (Hell, I'd trade some good people for Montero, even, but that's never going to happen.)

Honestly, if we could trade Castillo for Milton Bradley, I dunno why we wouldn't then just keep Bradley, as opposed to trading him for Overbay.

Cohen complaining about Bradley would make me want to stab myself. And truth be told, Bradley seems to wear out his welcome quickly and it has happened in more than one spot. New York doesn't seem like a good fit. With all that said, he is a talented guy and I can't say I'd hate it.

Realistically, I don't think the Mets acquire an outfielder this offseason. It's going to be Pagan and Frenchy in the corners.

That proposal (# 11) would seriously make me give up a lifetime of being a Mets' fan. Fortunately, it's not going to happen.

First of all, the most credible reports after that Overbay rumor were that the Jays had no interest in Bradley. The notion that the Mets could somehow turn Castillo's bad contract into a reasonably productive, at least stop-gap first base solution is pretty preposterous. Almost as preposterous as the notion of actually taking Milton Bradley off the Cubs' hands and actually keeping him. The guy cannot play the outfield full-time at this point, and God knows he can't handle a big-media atmosphere like New York. If there is a place for him, it's on a small-market team in the DH league, in an organization that has proved adept at handling problem cases. Which is to say, the Anti-Mets.

Second, I would much rather bring in one really good pitcher than two of Arroyo and Marquis. Marquis is exactly the kind of pitcher the Mets need to get the hell away from: he doesn't throw strikes (at least 70 walks in every full season he's ever pitched except one, and in that season he threw 69), and he doesn't strike out nearly enough to justify as many batters as he walks. In his last three seasons, the most Lackey has issued has been 52. I don't care what else the Mets do when it comes to the staff nearly as much as I care about one priority: get guys on that mound who pound the strike zone. Arroyo is somewhere in between, and I wouldn't hate that move depending on who they'd have to give up. They need at least one starter who is both highly dependable and really outstanding. Spending money on mediocrity is wasting money, if it gets in the way of acquiring that guy.

The bullpen suggestion is pretty silly. John Maine is too expensive to be a reliever, and it is doubtful at best that his arm could hold up to everyday use. He is also much too erratic to be reliable in that role. If you don't want to depend on him in the rotation -- and I tend to agree that we shouldn't (especially not with Perez already being so undependable and with an untradeable contract) -- then you really have to let him go. And Niese is too valuable as a potential starter, unless the idea is to use the bullpen to groom him for that role, which frankly I don't trust Manuel and Warthen to be able to execute competently.

Sam, I know you're off duty, but I'd be interested in your views on the discussion in the Willets Point thread. Presumably your views are that I have butchered constitutional law beyond all repair.

Thole is doing extremely well down in the VWL. The Mets shouldn't focus too much resources or time commitment at C. I'm actually pretty happy with letting Thole, Davis, and Havens/Tejada develop and taking those positions.

I'd still roll with Maine for 1 more year. Ollie would have to earn a spot. I think the back end of the rotation is alright since Maine, Ollie, Niese, and Figgy should be able to fill in those last 2 slots.

Agree with Sam on Marquis. Only if he's willing to sign a 1 or 2 year commitment for 5 million or less per year. Otherwise, pass. Not a fan of Arroyo. If there is a Reds starting pitcher that I'd pursue, it'd be Harang who would look great in the Mets rotation.

I'm not sure Polanco is really appreciably better than Castillo,

It's Castillo's defense that hurts.