OMG! This is worse than Prophetess Baba O’Riley Vanga’s 2010 prediction of a nuclear and chemical wasteland for more than just pimply teens!
Point is, the Mets’ across-the-board optimism for 2010 is a dangerous antidote to their current pandemic; it’s what got them in trouble in the first place. Minaya placed too much faith in his upper-tier players; he assumed everyone would stay and have career years.
The miscalculation was devastating. You see the result every night. In one sense Manuel is lucky: his team is so pathetic, no one assumes the Mets will ever win another game. If they do, it’s a pleasant surprise.
Manuel’s players are taking full advantage of this late-September vacation, if not the manager himself. He keeps urging the Mets to focus, finish out strong, cling to the fundamentals that got them to the majors. But more and more, Manuel’s oratory is as substantive as vapor. He has the impact of Jeff Torborg, circa 1993.
...That sorry attitude is born, in part, by the lopsided balance of power in New York. The gulf between the Mets and Yankees hasn’t been this wide since the late Seventies. The difference is these Mets are expensive. They came into the season with the National League’s biggest payroll, which earns them the dubious title of the worst team (more) money could buy.
Watching $140 million disappear in the post-Madoff era must be an unbearable shock for the Wilpons. But it shouldn’t stop them from facing an ugly truth: 2010 won’t be fixed just with crossed fingers.
Repoz
Posted: September 18, 2009 at 12:05 PM |
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Yeah, but this team is 5 stars and nothing else. They need all 5 to be elite just to have a chance. If it's only 3.5-4 elite seasons out of the 5, they're screwed.
The Mets badly need to add average to above MLB talent in RF, C, 1B and the rotation. And they need to do this with little money to spend.
My initial reaction is "who can?" I don't think it's prudent for any GM to simply assume that his team will improve.
But, as I think about it, the Mets have a more difficult evaluation task than most teams. When you have had that many key players on the DL for that long, how do you know what to expect when they return next season, one year older?
I know 2007 seems long ago now, but in that year they had no Santana and Delgado put up a 103 OPS+. Reyes also put up a 103 OPS+; obviously he is a SS so he had a lot more value than Delgado, but I don't think that was probably an elite season. Either way, they were obviously in the race until the final day of the season. That's probably 2.5 elite seasons at best.
Big difference that year of course was they got solid pitching from the middle guys in their rotation. It's probably not realistic to think Perez, Maine, and Pelfrey will all be as bad/injured as they were this year.
Who the hell is optimistic about the Mets going forward?
Well, I don't want to punt another one of the Wright/Reyes/Santana/Beltran years and no one else is available this offseason. If they could trade for a #2, that would be better, but everyone they have to offer is at the nadir of value except maybe Ike Davis and he's not bringing in a good return.
Mind you, if the Yankees could magically be done with AJ Burnett and take Lackey, that would be outstanding. But he's probably peaked, and it seems like a deal that go very bad very quick.
Big difference that year of course was they got solid pitching from the middle guys in their rotation. It's probably not realistic to think Perez, Maine, and Pelfrey will all be as bad/injured as they were this year.
Just using Fangraphs, that team got elite seasons from Wright (8.4 WAR), Reyes (5.1) and Beltran (4.9). Plus, they had no black holes. Only one starting position player (LoDuca) below a 96 OPS+ and 4 major reserves above 100 OPS+, 4 SPs average or above (Glavine worst at 96 ERA+) and 4 RPs with a 123 ERA+ or better.
The 2010 team faces gaping holes at C, 1B, RF, and LF, and has 1 reliable SP who is coming off surgery.
If they can get those 4 positions and 3 SPs to be average or better, and 3 RPs (other than KRod) to be very good, sure they can make do with 3 elite seasons.
What are the odds of all that happening, given that they have no prospects to trade, or who can fill those roles, and no money to spend?
Perez threw 66 IP with a 6.82 ERA. He was worse than he was with the Pirates. I can't imagine he'll be that bad next year. (Maybe I shouldn't dare him though)
The scary thing is his FIP was 6.39; usually when a guy has an ERA that high, you'd think he got more unlucky than Ollie did. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit, but I think he's more likely to have his ERA in the 4.5 range next year. He's also been relatively durable, and the injury was to his knee.
Pelfrey has an ERA over 5 and a FIP of 4.36. I think he can be expected to do better next year. Maine I am more iffy on because his arm has been troubling him for over a year now. That being said, those three have given the Mets 295 IP and allowed 185 runs this year; that's 5.6 runs per 9. The legitimate best case scenario is all 3 of those guys are somewhere in the 110 ERA+ range and throw 180 IP or so. I'm not suggesting that's going to happen; but I'm hopeful they can add maybe 100-120 IP next year and combine for an ERA closer to 4.50 or so.
Edit: What do you think the odds are that Thole or Davis can help the team next year?
Slim. Both only reached AA this year. To go to being productive regulars is a huge jump. My guess you don't see either before August, barring another apocalypse.
Just to clarify, I am not sure what I would actually do with this team. Honestly, at this point I think I'd just flank Beltran with Pagan and Francoeur and try to fix everything else, because that in and of itself is going to be difficult enough (and I do think Pagan and Frenchy are not going to be among the very worst corner OF in baseball, although I certainly understand the arguments to the contrary.)
From my point of view at least, unless a C falls in your lap which is unlikely, you might as well start Thole. There is really not much to lose there. I'm not sold that he'll be all that great -- he never strikes out, so he should have a solid BA, but my fear is that it'll be an empty one. Still, it at least beats Santos' assurance of suck. I'd like to see Davis do something at AAA. He wasn't so good at AA that we can skip that, I think. And finding a decent 1B is a lot more plausible.
Sure. I'm not necessarily saying go into the season with those guys as your best after Santana. But part of the reason the pitching is such a mess is those 2, along with Pelfrey, have all disappointed this year.
re: Davis and Thole; I didn't mean to suggest they could both be ready from opening day next year. It sure would be nice if Thole could be part of a platoon from close to the get go, and maybe Davis gets a month or two in AAA and then he can help the team on say June 1 or so. Then you still need to patch first base until then, and it's no lock Ike would be ready then, so it's a tough spot, I know. I am pretty sure Thole will be on the team before next August.
I don't think you need to be relatively lucky to get that out of them. In 08 they combined for 334 IP at a 4.58. The year before it was 368 at 4.40. Maybe it's just semantics with relatively lucky. But I wouldn't be all that surprised if they combined for something close to the 07 or 08 production next year either. Either way, I think if the Mets got a starter to slide in behind Santana, it would be ok if you had Maine, Perez, and Jon Niese competing for the last 2 spots in the rotation.
That would be fine, as long as they also have 2 more guys who can be reasonably expected to be healthy and able to pitch to a 5 era or so. You really need 7 starters and not 5.
Sometimes you need a lot more than 7.
Sincerely,
- The Toronto Blue Jays
You have to account for the exchange rate. 10 Blue Jays starters are equivalent to 7 starters for a team in the US.
It's actually up to 9.4 US starters. We like to think of the 0.4 as Ollie Perez.
because he bears an odd resemblance to a snapping turtle?
Depends on your definition of "help"
Lets see, Met Cs 2009:
Santos: .261/.297/.398
Schnieder: .203/.279/.323
Ok Santos was hitting over his head (carer minor league line: .258/.304/.348) , and Schneider is not that bad (career .250/.322/.373)-
so if Thole can post an 80 OPS+ without tripping over his mask once an inning, then yes he could likely "help" starting in 2010
Primay Met 1B 2009: Dan Murphy: 24 hitting: .262/.312/.414
last year at age 23 hit .308/.374/.496 in AA Binghamton, and the year before .285/.338/.430 in A+ St Lucie
Ike Davis thsi year at age 22 hit .288/.376/.486 in St Lucie and .309/.386/.565 in Binghamton
So yes, I'd say he could "help" the Mets in 2010.
Of course matching or slightly improving 2009's 1b and C production isn't all that
DB
1) He's never healthy
2) He'll be 20
3) He's never dominated a minor league level
4) He was overmatched in MLB
Give the kid a chance, let him play in the minors for a full, good season, at least.
I do think -- due to lacking spendable money, free agents worth spending it on, or close-to-major-league-ready talent to trade -- that this is what we end up with. What I don't think is that it will be good enough.
Again, I don't have much of any better plan, other than trying to sign the one decently reliable free agent SP out there (which, obviously, is not much of a plan even to fill one SP slot, never mind two or three.) I guess I'd try to trade for some Homer Bailey types and hope they work. If Carlos Zambrano is on the block, maybe we can go for him? (Since our record with Zambranos is so great.) I don't know what we'd trade for Carlos, of course. I really have no idea how to proceed here.
If you see a barrel-sized fish in a fish-shaped barrel, and you just happen to be carrying your fish-shooting gun, can you really pass up the opportunity to shoot yourself some barrel fish?
Puh-leeze. The horse is dead. Kindly stop beating it.
Hindsight is 20/20 but Omar did build a team that a lot of people thought had a very good chance of making the playoffs. Heck, a lot of projection systems had them winning the NL East and SI had them winning the WS. Depending on how much they can spend, they should have a pretty god shot of making the playoffs next season despite this miserable season. They are hardly a "stinking carcass".
Moreover, I think it's time to stop blaming Omar for the Nats problems. He's been GM of the Mets for 5 years. The statute of limitations has expired.
Especially since he was able to keep the Expos competetive for far longer than anyone expected them to be in those final seasons. Besides, what was his motivation then to play for the future - both he and the local fans knew there was no future, at least for Montreal, or for him with that organization.
Maybe it's just because I'm having a bad week, but this bit was legitimately funny.
I would be surprised if Thole doesn't break camp with the Mets next spring.
With average luck and a solid offseason, I'd only put the Mets chances of making the playoffs next season at 25%.
I agree. The Mets have other holes, the options on the free agent market are not enticing, and Thole has a three year track record of hitting in the minors.
Thirded.
Fourthed!
That's a bad plan. He's a fine plan B, but I think they need serious upgrades at C, 1B and RF. Pagan could be a decent bet in LF.
They're probably not going to have enough money to fix the rotation, so they're going to have to go with reclamation proects to fill in there. They should concentrate whatever resources they do have on getting league average at C, 1B and RF (no Francoeur ain't it).
I think Murphy can be league average at firstbase next year.
His offense was horrible this year in May and June while he was learning the new position. Just my opinion, of course, but I think Murphy has shown enough improvement in the second half of this season to be optimistic about his prospects for 2010, especially if we're setting the bar at just league average.
DB
In my opinion, acquiring a frontline pitcher is the priority because if the Mets go into next season thinking they can compete with Mike Pelfrey as their #@ starter, they are sadly mistaken. Pelfrey's better than he has pitched this year but he's third or fourth starter. Niese, Maine, Nieve, and Perez can fill in the back end but they need someone to slot in behind Santana. Lackey would be ideal.
The Mets have some position players in the minors and guys like Tatis, Murphy, and Evans are fine as complementary players. A guy like LaRoche or Nady is all they need IMHO.
Crazy Idea: How about signing Pedro again?
Murphy has had 10 good games. Before that, his OPS was under .700 which is what it has been for most of the year. I'd rather start the season with Davis then give Murphy the everyday job again.
Pedro has become my favorite Phillies in just a few short weeks. Well, him and Jayson Werth.
I think Murphy can be league average at firstbase next year.
League average is probably 2 full WAR better than he's been this year, I don't see him doing that.
In my opinion, acquiring a frontline pitcher is the priority because if the Mets go into next season thinking they can compete with Mike Pelfrey as their #@ starter, they are sadly mistaken. Pelfrey's better than he has pitched this year but he's third or fourth starter. Niese, Maine, Nieve, and Perez can fill in the back end but they need someone to slot in behind Santana. Lackey would be ideal.
The Mets have some position players in the minors and guys like Tatis, Murphy, and Evans are fine as complementary players. A guy like LaRoche or Nady is all they need IMHO.
Crazy Idea: How about signing Pedro again?
I think given what we seen from guys like Lohse, Pineiro, and Marquis, you're much more likely to pull a good SP off the scrap heap than a good hitter.
For the $18M or so Lackey will cost, I think you're better off getting Nick Johnson or Russell Branyan, and Bobby Abreu. They probably cost $14-16M combined. Then use the rest towards a C.
I think Pedro's a fine idea, if he only costs a couple of million. I think they need to trot in 4-5 additional SP possibilities and hope some work out. Though, if Rich Harden can be had for <$8M per, I'd look seriously at him.
Given all the uncertainty already, and the potential lack of payroll, I think the Mets need to go with a high beta strategy. Seek out risk, don't shun it.
The Mets already have Pelfrey, Niese, Maine, Perez, and Nieve. They already have enough "possibilities". What they need is some stability.
I just don't think they can afford stability. Stability cost $10M+ per year.
If the Mets can't spend 20-25 million to the 2010 payroll this offseason, they aren't making the playoffs.
True.
The question is, if you can only spend $20M, do you blow $18M of it on Lackey? I don't think you do.
No. At least not if it leaves you with notable holes at 3 other positions.
That's my point. You can probably fill 1B (Johnson, Branyon) and 2 OF spots (Abreu, Dye, Nady, Hinske) for about the same as Lackey will cost.
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