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Thanks for checking. Every one of those teams looks to be scrapping 'til the bitter end. And even if the Cubs clinch early their pitching/talent level is so superior to the Reds it is hard to believe Cincy can win more than a game.
And those who don't follow the NL Central need to know the following lines by Reds starters over the past month (as in what they have surrendered as pitchers):
Volquez .341/.394/.636
Cueto .293/.362/.491
Bailey .452/.489/.560 (4 starts)
Fogg .361/.426/.602 (4 starts)
Do I need to continue?
Arroyo is the only one getting folks out. But I continue to maintain he's using smoke and mirrors. His fastball is now topping out at 84 and in his last few starts he's throwing a Tiant-like 66 mph curveball. Eventually the league will catch up to his act though I give him credit for being creative.
Harang just got back from the DL so who knows what he will do over the last six weeks.
The bullpen ERAs look good but in reality they walk WAY too many guys. Cordero alone has walked 31 in fifty odd innings. The only guy really getting people out is Lincoln.
This has the makings to be a catastrophe. If somebody said "10 wins" for the rest of the season I wouldn't call them crazy......
I have higher expectations, though there's obviously plenty of time left for this to go either way.
Because Ned Colletti is at the helm?
agree - and agree arroyo is using smoke and mirrors. he looked tired. and harang looked hurt.
acdtually, bill bray looked decent and so did affeldt.
wonder what the reds are gonna do next year. don't guess dusty is gonna be refusing to uswe young players...
Leading off Patterson can't be the entire reason...can it?
Why do I think somehow that Dusty was behind this, to get rid of Dunn?
Well, he's definitely the slow-moving, walk-drawing, non-defensively versatile sort of player Dusty doesn't care for. As a fan of one of the Reds' division rivals, I consider Baker the gift that keeps on giving.
All indications are that his hands are tied. He may not even have the ability to make waiver claims if any added payroll is a disaster (as indicated in the Manny trade) for ownership.
You and I (and probably even Ned) understand there is no chance the Reds walk away from Dunn's contract but ownership might be far more concerned with the small risk of added payroll.
Is it a bad bullpen? Lack of depth? I just don't see how they could suck with that group.
Both of those things plus a few guys who are very defensively stretched at their positions. And, as Harvey shows, their good young pitchers are hitting the wall.
All that is left is a few good youngish and young players. Jocketty in STL was good at pulling off big trades for veteran first-tier and second-tier stars, and filling holes at the margins with guys that TLR could get max value out of.
This setup--starting over, long history of failure, Baker and Jocketty--seems like a bad match.
They probably think no one knows who Adam Dunn is. Never mind that it's their own marketing bias that helps bring such lack of knowledge about.
To me Dunn is a guy you keep. If a bad bullpen plus lack of depth and young pitcher inconsistency is the problem, the Reds really aren't that far from contending. Bullpens are fungible, and a bench is relatively easily put together. By someone competent, anyway.
I'm inclined to agree with you.
Guys like Encarnacion, Bruce and Mark Prior-killer Keppinger at premium defensive spots are part of their struggles at the moment actually, not a reason they win games.
Krivsky did leave Jocketty a bunch of young guys to trade away. But his MO in St. Louis was to be on the opposite side of this kind of trade, with the JD Drew trade the only thing particularly close.
And Dusty Baker is firable.
Except Dallas Buck and two (currently unknown) players..
Buck is a B- prospect, at best, and even that's probably being overly generous. And so far the list of likely PTBNL's is a bunch of C level prospects. In other words, nothing much of value.
Buck is as much a B- as any given 22nd overall pick.
And I fail to see how "even [B-] is being generous".
And most picks in the supplemental round are worse bets to be solid MLBers than the list of second-tier guys that the PTBNLs could be.
Plus you'd have to pay those guys, on average, 1 mil each, if not a little more, and trading for minor leaguers gives you a more immediate return without sacrificing upside.
Edwin is bad. Keppinger has limited range. Votto is rough.
Bruce is ok at a corner.
And a fair amount of the perceived power is GAB.
Too bad it wasn't Cincy's decision. Dunn's a free agent after this season, and after being kicked around by the Cincy media and probably not being one of Dusty's faves, I'm sure he was more than ready to leave.
"And I fail to see how "even [B-] is being generous"."
Complain to Sickles, who gave him a C back in January.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/5/14110/39616
What's your evidence that he is something special?
I don't think you let the media and the manager dictate what players are on the roster. I guess it comes down to how much he'd be making next year (or the unwillingness of the Reds to go for a multi-year deal).
I didn't realize the Reds D was so bad. Re-up A-Gone?
No, but the player can let the media and manager dictate whether or not he'll be on the roster when he's a free agent, which Dunn is about to be.
If the Cincy FO had built a winning team with Dunn on it, ESPN would probably have promoted them more, and Dunn would be more famous.
MM1F gets the win - it's the Sabean draft (or lack thereof) strategy. Somewhere in Jocketty's front office, there's probably a spreadsheet showing that the draft picks aren't worth the bonus money. He may be right. [Or] he may be crazy.
You been paying attention lately? Sabean has been stockpiling some pretty impressive farm depth lately.
ColonelTom gets the loss, but really, the more this kind of stupidity is propagated around here, the more we all lose.
One can make a point without being incredibly rude. If a post is an error by all means provide accurate info.
But tossing out "stupidity"?
Unnecessary.
Second of all, you should probably read this article for a history lesson before you go lecturing anyone again.
Sabean's switched course in recent years - I'm perfectly well aware of that, thank you. But he is known for pioneering the "avoid the draft" strategy earlier in the decade, and Jocketty may be following that playbook.
BS. Maybe I'm in a cranky mood today, but the knee jerk response of using Sabean as a whipping boy for making a banal and wrongheaded point is as asinine as the Baker hate that is so preciously de rigeur here. If you'll note, Sabean (with what is apparently a new mandate by ownership) is building up a pretty impressive collection of minor league talent. Not to mention the pitchers that have kept the Giants interesting. But whatever, ColonelTom et al have their punchlines all queued up for the peanut gallery, so whatever, let's keep rolling those old chestnuts out for cheap giggles.
This site has dropped pretty far lately, mainly because snarksters mail in these kinds of stupid sentiments on a daily basis. I come here for news and insight, but now it's just an echochamber of snark and rote responses that I for one find distasteful.
I think anyone who wasn't deliberately trying to misinterpret what I wrote would find it clear that I did not mean comp picks were bad, and should be avoided, because you had to pay for draft picks. I was simply pointing out those 2 million dollars do matter and were one of many factors to consider when weighing the choice of offering arb and trying to land two picks at 16-30 or 47-61 overall and at 31-46 overall.
If you read my post with half a brain you can see that I was clearly saying that I found Buck+PTNBL+PTBNL potentially better (PTBNLs depending of course) than picks #(16-30 or 47-61) and (31-46). Even if you found the picks about equal in usefulness to the prospect package it is worth considering whether the picks are 2 million dollars better than the prospects. Paying your draft picks shouldn't be a reason to not have good picks but if the talent is equal why not go for free over a 2-mil pricetag. You're a fool if you don't acknowledge that paying for draftees is a major financial issue for MLB teams these days... and that goes for all of MLB, not just Brian Sabean.
This is especially important in a deal that was caused, partly, by the Reds desire to get out from under at least part of the few mil they owe Dunn from now 'til the end of the year.
Sorry everyone, carry on.
To clarify, I didn't accuse Sabean of previously having a "lack of draft strategy," which may be how both posters read my comment. I said it was a "draft (or lack thereof) strategy" - i.e., that his strategy, for a period of time, was *not* to draft, at least in the early rounds.
In other words, MM1F, I was *agreeing* with you - Jocketty's probably figuring the draft picks aren't worth the bonuses, compared to the PTBNLs. Obviously we won't know until the PTBNLs are identified. Thus my comment "He may be right. [Or] he may be crazy."
Is there something in the water here today?
It just may be a lunatic Cincy fans are looking for.
In all seriousness, I think that this Dunn deal is a huge win for the DBacks. Yes, they're going to whiff enough to power the southwest, provided the Dbacks install turbines to harness the wind. But, that comes with a ton of power in the lineup, and I think Young is a good enough OF to cover for Dunn's deficiencies. Dunn's obviously a rental, and whatever character issues may exist, I think that they will disappear the entirety of his time in AZ. Dunn's playing for a contract, and I expect him to play very hard and well. As an added bonus, Dunn remains in just the kind of park which benefits a power hitter like him.
Cincy gets back a solid prospect in Braden. He's had TJ, so I'd be leery of him, but the numbers are solid and so is the scouting. It really depends on who else comes back to Cinci, and I'd be surprised if they didn't net at least one top tier prospect from the DBacks. If they didn't, then I don't see how you can call this anything other than a clear win for AZ.
He only lasted to round 3 because of the arm injury that lead to the TJ. If not for that he would have been drafted in round 1 or the supplemental round.
He seems to have now made a fine recovery from the TJ surgery.
He's 23 and has never pitched above Class A and only has thrown 150 IP professionally.
For a guy with legit stuff I don't really take him being 23 as a big negative. If he was some finesse artist mowing down teenage hitters because of sharp command and junkballing that would be one thing but I don't really think Buck being 23 right now is going to hinder his career at all.
And of course his throwing only 150 pro innings thus far is also a result of the TJ. His only throwing 150 IP up to this point doesn't make him any less likely to become an MLB pitcher. It might give armchair experts a few less numbers to look at but it doesn't decrease the chances of Buck doing anything.
The guy is a long shot to even make the majors, much less make any sort of an impact--more so than a late first round draft pick.
I don't see how you make the leap to this conclusion at all. A guy having TJ surgery and recovering and pitching well doesn't make him an MLB longshot.
As for Sickles, yeah. He gave him a C.
So what? He gave Tim Bascom and Brandon Hynick a B- also for no reason.
Thats no mark against Sickles, everyone is wrong sometimes, but it doesn't change the fact that mere C was a ridiculously low grade for a guy who had shown the stuff Buck had in the past and shown good performance in the Cal League since his return from TJ.
I mean, Sickles' put Hector Ambriz as a C+ and the system's 11th best prospect despite being older, less talented and putting up numbers that weren't any better than Buck's at the same level in the same year.
And anyway, Sickles' calling a guy a "C prospect" doesn't actually make the guy a "C prospect."
What's your evidence that he is something special?
I'm not even saying he is anything special. I'm just saying his career so far is pretty typical of a late first rounder. Great athlete, good arm, good college career, gets hurt, misses some time, comes back, pitches well but not super-duper.
Thats a pretty typical outcome for a pick in the comp range.
What, are Latin Americans giving their kids crazy names now too?
PsTBNL
Now that's just pedantic.
Do the words "Yuniesky", "Runelvys", and "Asdrubal" mean nothing to you?
Actually, no. They don't.
Already got one. Sittin in the dugout, chewin toothpicks.
I bet you say "RBIs"
Chris Dickerson is being called up to replace Dunn on the roster.
-- MWE
Player To Be Named Later
A transaction including a player to be named later must be completed within six months. The player may not be an active Major Leaguer player during the interval between the trade and the date the player is named. As a result, most players to be named later are minor leaguers.
At the time of a trade, clubs sometimes agree on a list of players from which the player to be named will be selected. They also may agree on an amount of money to be exchanged in lieu of a player.
Clubs may include a player to be named later in a trade if a player is not eligible to be traded. For example, once a draft pick signs a professional contract, he may not be traded until an entire year has elapsed (the Pete Incaviglia Rule). Additionally, a player on a minor-league reserve list may not be traded between November 20 and the Rule 5 draft in December, so trades during that window may include a PTBNL.
Plus, if I were running the Dbacks, it would still be worth it to get Dunn.
Learn something new everyday. That having been said, I still don't know what they mean. :/
Also : I happen to be in the minority on Dusty. I don't think he's crazy. A little misguided? Perhaps, but not crazy.
Either way, Owings isn't active, so he'd be eligible, according to post 150.
Btw, I recall the Reds were interested in Wilkin Castillo last fall. There was some speculation they were scouting him in the AFL, which led the Dbacks to add him to their 40 man roster. Given the Reds catching situation, he would make sense.
I get the impression that the only spreadsheet you'll find in the Reds office is when someone drops a stack of mimeograph paper.
The Reds should just move Micah to left field.
Dunn better produce....thats all I can say.
Is your declaration binding on the Reds? I don't want to look stupid when I show up there Monday.
Doesn't the "R" just stand for "Runs"? I think "RBI" is already plural. Unless you're talking about just one, in which case it's singular.
It doesn't matter. Acronyms are treated like regular words. So if the acronym is RBI, then the plural is RBIs. Just like POWs, MREs, etc.
If you're going to be pedantic, you should at least be correct.
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