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Monday, October 12, 2009

Lackey: Houston Street and Ryan Howard Illustrate the Closer Fallacy

The answer, of course, is that Street is Colorado’s “closer.” The Rockies were winning 4-2, so Street had to be on the mound. It was Tracy that made the unfortunate decision tonight to not bring Joe Beimel (the only remaining lefty in the Rockies’ bullpen) in to face Howard, but I’m willing to bet you could count on one hand (or maybe even no hands) the managers in baseball that would’ve made that move.

Watching the post-game coverage tonight, not on-air analyst or reporter is questioning Tracy’s decision to stick with Street. He probably won’t take much heat for the move in the Denver papers tomorrow. That’s all because sticking with your “closer” is what’s done in baseball. Now flip the situation around; imagine that Tracy had brought Beimel in to face Howard. Beimel’s a decent but not great reliever with a slight platoon split. If he had given up the hit to Howard, everyone would be frothing at the mouth over Tracy’s decision without even mentioning Howard’s platoon split. In fact, people would probably be questioning the move even if Beimel had gotten Howard out, because that’s how out of place the move would’ve seemed.

Maybe using Beimel against Howard wouldn’t have been a great idea given the history between the two (Howard is 3/10 with a double, a triple, and a homer), but Howard’s platoon split is still about as big as they get and I think it’s telling that no one has even mentioned the thought of pulling Street for a lefty against Howard. It’s not even part of the discussion. Closers are an ingrained part of baseball, but three of the division series ended with closers blowing saves. Why is it so crazy to rethink this model a little bit?

Thanks to Mickliver.

Repoz Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:55 PM | 35 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Colorado, Philadelphia

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1. Tripon Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:07 PM (#3350583)

Going to be interesting, since Torre is likely going to use Broxton vs. Howard if Kuo and Sherrill are already burned.

2. BaseballDIY Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:07 PM (#3350584)

Nice work, Fanhuse.

3. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:08 PM (#3350586)

John Lackey may look like a dumb dead sturgeon tacked up on somebody's wood-paneled wall, but I've got to agree with him here.

4. stanmvp48 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:21 PM (#3350592)

Wasn't first base open when Werth got the game winning single and wasn't the pitcher's spot next?

5. Tripon Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:23 PM (#3350593)

Except Werth was a right hander. You'd think Street would be able to get Werth out if only for same handiness.

6. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:26 PM (#3350596)

Except Werth was a right hander. You'd think Street would be able to get Werth out if only for same handiness.

Miguel Cairo hit next. That's a bigger dropoff than Howard to Werth.

7. scareduck Posted: October 12, 2009 at 11:44 PM (#3350636)

You keep Sherrill dry until the eighth, at least.

This was a total disaster call by Tracy, and it was freaking obvious.

8. MM1f Posted: October 12, 2009 at 11:45 PM (#3350637)

I generally agree with the logic of playing for matchups rather than "closers" but not when JOE BEIMEL is the guy you would bring in.
I understand that he has had a bit of a resurgence, somehow, but he is still not a guy that could inspire confidence in any manager if the matchup was him vs. Howard with your season on the line.

If you have a real lights out LHP back there that is one thing, but if my season is on the line I'm going Huston Street over Joe Biemel anyday.

9. puck Posted: October 12, 2009 at 11:54 PM (#3350642)

How much do you weight Howard's splits vs. the pitchers'? Street's splits vs. lefties are better than Beimel's (62 pts of OPS when comparing career #'s).

It does seem pretty clear, though, that Street was Tracy's man. During the season he'd been matchup guy with pretty much everyone else, including Betancourt.

10. Dale Sams

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:10 AM (#3350647)

I agree some kind of situational look at the model is in order. Example:

Papelbon has Aybar 0-2. Does he throw his out pitch, the eye level heat? One in the dirt? Nope, throws one in the strike zone. Now with Abreu on deck he walks Chone Figgins. You don't walk Chone Figgins with Abreu on deck, you throw it down the middle of the plate if you have too. Now that Figgins has been walked it should be immensly clear that something is horribly wrong and you bring in Okajima. What? Okajima wasn't warm enough? Well WTF not? This is an elimination game.

I don't know how this situational awareness should apply to Huston Street because I don't know him or the Phillie hitters.

11. puck Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:17 AM (#3350663)

Howard has unusually drastic splits for a superstar/star:

Career:

vs RHP .307/.409/.661 in 2085 PA
vs LHP .226/.310/.444 in 1060 PA

12. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3350667)

How much do you weight Howard's splits vs. the pitchers'? Street's splits vs. lefties are better than Beimel's (62 pts of OPS when comparing career #'s).

It's an interesting question. In the case of a guy like Howard, I think I'd give more weight to the hitter's struggles than the pitchers' variance.

13. bumpis hound Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3350676)

Good god. Sometimes guys don't succeed against worthy opponents. Not unprecedented, in baseball history. Get off the guy's back.

14. God Posted: October 13, 2009 at 03:01 AM (#3350684)

Huston Street is the Rockies closer. Houston Street is the boundary of Soho.

15. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: October 13, 2009 at 06:49 AM (#3350710)

16. Adam B. Posted: October 13, 2009 at 07:37 AM (#3350728)

TMCM, at that point Stewart had already come in for Atkins at 3B. So, same theory, but shift Street to LF, and bring in Hawpe after Howard's AB.

17. Jeff K. Posted: October 13, 2009 at 08:59 AM (#3350792)

John Lackey may look like a dumb dead sturgeon tacked up on somebody's wood-paneled wall

I commented in Primer Playoff IRC the other night that my theory was that John Rocker gave up and quietly came back as John Lackey. Also, I forgot about this, from the logs that night:

[22:36] * JohnLackey (~chatzilla@xxxxxxxx.socal.res.rr.com) has joined #baseball_primer
[22:36] <JohnLackey> dur

18. Moses Taylor's bus bench has been Tom Sellecked Posted: October 13, 2009 at 09:17 AM (#3350815)

Would have taken MAJOR stones, but you could have moved Street to 3B for Howard, put in Beimel for Howard, had Street ready for Werth. I remember managers doing this years ago, haven't seen it in a long time.

Lou Piniella actually did something similar this year. He put Sean Marshall (his lefty reliever) in LF for one batter against the Cards. It worked.

19. Brad in DE Posted: October 13, 2009 at 11:28 AM (#3350919)

Interesting that Lidge's struggles this year now gives Manuel the freedom to start the 9th inning with Eyre instead of just immediately going to his closer with a 1-run lead.

Watching closers implode everywhere gives me a greater appreciation of Mariano Rivera (maybe that will jinx him against the Angels).

20. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 11:47 AM (#3350938)

Lackey went to school (briefly) at UT-Arlington. Needless to say, the baseball guys who appear as "Maverick" notables on our website are Hunter Pence and Trey Hillman. He's some pitcher (and by informal accounts not a bad student, either), but he's not going to entice many eyeballs to linger on our home page.

21. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:07 PM (#3350953)

The linked article is by Pat Lackey.

22. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Marching Through Georgia

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:20 PM (#3350965)

Huston Street may have his enemies, but I'll bet they all love him over at TBS. And so do I.

23. Russ Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:31 PM (#3350975)

How much do you weight Howard's splits vs. the pitchers'?

Strat says 50/50.

24. spycake Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:36 PM (#3350980)

Was Carlos Gonzales positioned properly in right field? I guess it was a liner more than a high fly, but with the tying runs on base and Howard at the plate, I thought he could have been playing deeper and closer to the line, so you wouldn't expect to see a ball bouncing off the right-field warning track like that.

I think it should be acceptable to remove closers after they walk a batter in a tight spot -- that seems to be a good indicator that they aren't on their game and the batters are too comfortable against him. Particularly with a guy like Street, or vintage Papelbon, who don't normally walk many hitters. Joe Nathan could have fallen under this rule too, but he grooved fastballs instead of just walking the hitter. And Ryan Franklin should've been on a shorter leash to begin with!

25. Edmundo is Super Average Man

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:55 PM (#3351004)

I guess it was a liner more than a high fly
It was a top spin special. If he had gotten backspin on that ball it would have been 20 rows deep into the bleachers, if it cleared the wall.

26. JPWF13

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 12:57 PM (#3351009)

Watching closers implode everywhere gives me a greater appreciation of Mariano Rivera (maybe that will jinx him against the Angels).

There are years when someone else is a better closer, a Lidge, a Gagne, a Papelbon

but Mo is always there
The following chart shows Mariano's rank by OPS+ given up, 1996-2008:

1    Mariano    Rivera    1996
12    Mariano    Rivera    1997
10    Mariano    Rivera    1998
2    Mariano    Rivera    1999
4    Mariano    Rivera    2000
1    Mariano    Rivera    2001
7    Mariano    Rivera    2002
16    Mariano    Rivera    2003
14    Mariano    Rivera    2004
1    Mariano    Rivera    2005
8    Mariano    Rivera    2006
46    Mariano    Rivera    2007
2    Mariano    Rivera    2008

2009 I don't have OPS+, but MO is 5th in OPS

The worst he has ever done (As a reliever) is 2007, when he had an ERA of 3.15, a 74/12 k/bb ratio and opposing batters shelled him to the tune of : .248/.294/.350 (for his career he's given up a .211/.264/.292 line)

what happened in 2007? You guessed it, he gave up a career high .325 BABIP.

He's not human I tell you.

27. phredbird

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:04 PM (#3351020)

three of the division series ended with closers blowing saves. Why is it so crazy to rethink this model a little bit?

and in the fourth division series a closer turned into a pumpkin after his leftfielder dropped the last out in a crucial game.

28. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3351056)

What happens if Beimel walks Howard? Do you intentionally walk Werth? Who else would the Rockies have?

The problem with removing your best reliever is that you can then no longer use your best reliever. Suffering that in order to get Beimel in the game in that situation is not a great idea IMO.

29. Edmundo is Super Average Man

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:49 PM (#3351065)

The problem with removing your best reliever is that you can then no longer use your best reliever. Suffering that in order to get Beimel in the game in that situation is not a great idea IMO.

My take is that in this instance, with two outs, you go for the win. You need one out and you go for that one out.

30. SugarBear Blanks

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:54 PM (#3351072)

My take is that in this instance, with two outs, you go for the win. You need one out and you go for that one out.

This decision, as do most big decisions in the world of organizational commerce, comes down to the following:

Tracy pulls his closer and loses, he gets ripped by the press and the fans, and his bosses remember at job evaluation time.

Tracy keeps his closer in and loses, he played the percentages and things didn't bounce his way. We'll get 'em next year.

31. puck Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:56 PM (#3351078)

If Beimel failed and they needed another pitcher, next would probably be Matt Daley, a ROOGY-type. Contreras, Marquis, and Cook (the game 5 starter) were also available.

It's amazing they relied on Matt Belisle. Does anyone remember him from Cincy? He was horrible in his early season stint with the Rockies, and good but not great in AAA.

32. Edmundo is Super Average Man

Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3351091)

This decision, as do most big decisions in the world of organizational commerce, comes down to the following:

Tracy pulls his closer and loses, he gets ripped by the press and the fans, and his bosses remember at job evaluation time.

Tracy keeps his closer in and loses, he played the percentages and things didn't bounce his way. We'll get 'em next year.

A good manager engages his/her superiors before the shiite is ready to hit the fan. Tracy should get buy-in ahead of time -- "Listen, Dan*, if the game is on the line and Howard comes up, I'm putting Beimel in to face him. There is no way I let Howard hit off a righty." You pre-arrange your cover in an obvious situation like this.

*Is O'Dowd still the GM? He's the only one I can think of for the Rocks.

33. Petunia: Pursuing a Prurient Pastime, All the Time Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3351095)

Headline's fixed now. Pretty sad, I know Fanhouse is really trying to come off as a legit "mainstream"-ish site rather than an assortment of basement bloggers. But getting simple player names right should be easy.

34. puck Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3351096)

O'Dowd's contract is up, but he's expected to be re-signed.

35. Padraic Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3351105)

everyone would be frothing at the mouth over Tracy’s decision without even mentioning Howard’s platoon split.

This is silly. He may have taken a lot of heat, but people certainly would have mentioned the rationale behind the move and that Howard is a better hitter against RHP.

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Lackey: Houston Street and Ryan Howard Illustrate the Closer Fallacy

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