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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, November 17, 2008Leitch: Yankees Pick Up Nick Swisher, Who Is HorribleBah! Bill Walton was more of a banker...not a swisher.
Repoz
Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:37 PM | 27 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, NY Yankees |
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Yup, I wouldn't have known that if those sharp guys hadn't shared that revelation with me.
No wait, you don't.
You can make the argument- you'd be wrong, but you can still make the argument- it's a free country afterall.
Short list, "regular" players indisputably worse than Swish in 2008:
Willy Taveras
Michael Bourn
Jeff Francoeur
Freddy Sanchez
Bobby Crosby
Daric Barton
Mark Teahen
Adam Jones
Kevin Millar
Jose Guillen
If Swisher plays first and hits at his 2008 level ... well the Mariners got a 68 OPS+ from their pile of clowns and the Giants got a 69.
You can do worse than Swisher 2008 at first and some team will be sure to remind us of this.
506? What happened to 502? And it's "plate appearances".
Jack Hannahan had 503 PA and hit .218, so he wins the title.
I suppose you could also add hits to someone with fewer than 502 PA to see if they could win.
Jones was "indisputably worse" than Swisher? How do you figure?
But Swisher isn't expected to fill Betemit's role (guy who hardly plays), he's expected to fill Giambi's role (guy with a 128 OPS+). That's reachable, but it's doubtful he'll surpass that, and while it's a good *trade*, it's not necessarily an improvement for the team.
If you start from the assumption that they could have signed Teixeira if they had pursued him, then the Swisher trade (which apparently indicates they won't be pursuing Teixeira), represents a potential, and likely, loss of value (on-field, not dollar value).
Frankly, this team needs to add a bat -- if they go into 2009 with the roster they have, they'll need Posada and Cano to both bounce back just to avoid having a below-average lineup. There is very little chance that they'll have a *great* lineup in 2009, even if almost everything goes right.
I'll be really shocked if the Swisher acquisition leads the team to consider 1b "locked down". He hit .220 last year.
Right. He was indisputably worse only if you ignore position and defense.
Anyway though, as other's have pointed out, if they make this move with the hope that Swisher is the everyday 1B in 09, then that's probably bad. if their plan is to use him in a OF corner and back up 1B just in case they miss out on Teix, then it's good.
I think Larry your underestimating the Yankee lineup a bit though, they were right in the middle of the pack in 08, a the loss of Posada was a drop off of gigantic porportion. (SG estimate it to be about 50 runs! which would have shot up the team to 3rd in the AL) given the normal projection the Yanks look like their probably something like 3-5 in the AL right now. so it's above average. but still. their risk of something going wrong is pretty high.
I expect Swisher and Cano to bounce back. I expect Posada to not be as good as he used to be. I expect A-Rod to be about the same as last season (though he apparently is on a odd-year-awesome even-year-good cycle lately...).
I expect Damon, Nady and Jeter to drop off. I don't expect them to get impressive production out of the DH/3rd outfielder. I think it's more likely they'll be an average offense than a top-3 offense.
I think the Yanks went into this season thinking "we've got a hole at 1B, a hole in CF, and half-a-hole in RF." Swisher fills one of those and provides sufficient flexibility that they can choose later on which of them to fill with the next acquisition.
But I think it does signal that they won't be major players for Teixeira. I suspect their preference is to find a real CF. A Teixeira signing will push either Swisher or Damon to CF which I think they'd like to avoid.
Still a team with a lot of question marks (due to age and injury mostly). Granted, if even half those questions get answered yes, it could be an awesome offense. But those questions as I see them (not necessarily in priority order?):
1. Is Posada healthy and effective enough to play 120 games at C; if not, can he still hit enough to play 1B/DH on a fairly regular basis.
1A. Who plays C if Posada doesn't?
2. Will Matsui be healthy and productive enough to take at least 120 games at DH?
3. Will Cano bounce back?
4. Will Swisher bounce back?
5. Will Jeter bounce back?
6. Can we find enough talent to move Nady into a 400 PA 1B/LF/RF/DH super-sub role?
7. Is Swisher really an adequate CF?
8. Hey, how come nobody told me we've got holes in the rotation too?
The nice thing about the Swisher trade is they (potentially) filled a hole for a few years without giving up anything they really wanted or needed. When you've got that many holes/questions, that's a nice thing to pull off.
Except if it keeps them from signing Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira
I thought that was due to self-imposed austerity more than anything. They're going to have a cash cow in this new park, even in this economy.
That never happens, though. Bill James once pointed out in an Abstract that you it's better to be a team that has mostly positive questions rather than a team that has mostly negative questions - with positive questions being things like "Is Wade Davis ready to take over in the starting rotation?" while negative questions are things like Walt's list above.
-- MWE
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