PWN3D!

The Nats have a press release on it.

I'm torn on it. I really enjoyed watching Livan, and he's been close to his old self over the last month and a half or so. The Nats need pitching and $7 million seems to be the going rate for a league average guy. But yet they need the prospects, and Mike Rizzo certainly would know who to pilfer from the system.

What does this mean for keeping Soriano? Sure, it gives them more money, but they'd need to replace Livan anyway.

Trader Jim pulls off another steal. Count down to angry levski rant. 3, 2, 1...

ESPN is reporting the same.

Milb.com has these guys on the HBurg Sens already.

Chico in particular looks pretty interesting.

But he knows a thing or two about pennant races, having helped the Florida Marlins win the 1997 World Series, earning MVP honors for the NLCS along the way. He also was a member of the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation when they reached the 2002 World Series before losing to the Angels.

You would think that after the 2002 WS, this whole "Livan is a big-game pitcher" thing would have died.

Unfortunately, it has not.

This isn't as bad as it looks at first glance, actually. The D'backs have a surplus of arms in the system, and Mock and Chico were the most expendable. Both are decent, but not elite, prospects.

-- MWE

Genius Josh strikes again! Pile up that veteran leadership, Josh!

What's Livan's contract for next year?

Levski better show up SOON to take his beating. This is going to be fun.

How did he pass through waivers up to the D-Backs? There are plenty of contenders only a few games behind them. He's really returned to form the last month or month and a half and the 2003-2005 version of Livan is a bargain at his salary. You just have to claim him, you don't have to give up the prospects to get him to prevent him from going elsewhere.

I read somewhere this morning that he was put on waivers and claimed - perhaps by the Diamondbacks.

The only way this trade makes ANY sense for AZ is if the Nats are sending A LOT (and I mean bolus) of cash back along with Livan... enough cash to cover his salary this year and next year. Otherwise this is fn retarded.

Of the two pitchers traded, I like Chico more. I think he's got a lot of potential but he's really AT least a couple of years away from contributing in a meaningful way. Ditto for Mock, really. So that's why they are gone.

Rizzo knows the Dbacks system, that's for sure.

At this point of time, I hate this trade... If AZ is getting a lot of cash back, it will make the trade slightly more palatable. But Livan better pitch like RJ version 1998 in Houston to make this trade remotely fair...

***

And courtesy of Shoewizard

Chico was 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 81 IP at Tennessee. 21/63 B/K ratio 6 HRA

Mock was 4-9 with a 4.95 ERA in 131 IP at Tennessee. 50//117 BB/k 14 HRA


***

The other thing to consider is that the Dbacks indeed have quite a few arms in the system. I think they soured on Mock quite a bit, and Chico had his ups and downs, but this seems to be a lot to give up for Livan unless WAS is paying for Livan's salary. I agree with Emeigh that they are decent, but not elite prospects. Still, even decent isn't bad...

I'll reserve further judgment until I see if AZ is getting cash along with Livan, and how much. And the Dbacks better make the playoffs this year, or else...

***

Even if Livan is healthy, he couldn't possibly be less suited Chase. Certainly not with the outfield the team is going to play for the rest of the year - and who knows about next year.

#### this.

$7 million just gone next year, too. For a team that refuses to DFA Green.

#### this.

El Flunque is better and cheaper.

As much as I loved Byrnes' off-season moves, his in-season moves have raised a bunch of questions.

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

Karma's a #####.

First Omar pwn3s Josh in the Jorge Julio trade and now this business with Bowden. Dumb, dumber, dumbest. We have a winner.

Levski better show up SOON to take his beating. This is going to be fun.

He's busy...spoke to him on the phone. Obviously he is not happy and thinks it's a mistake, unless the Nats are paying almost all of Livan's salary, and then it's still a mistake. He knows he is in for it on this board though.....LOL...paybacks a #####.

This is what I posted to the kiddies over at the MLB.com board:

=================================

This is what I have been trying to explain to people who have been clamoring for a trade for a starting pitcher. If a broken down old warhorse like Livan is worth 2 young guys with promise and 9 million bucks, than what would a really good young starter that the team can actually keep for a few years cost? Think about that.

On to the trade analysis

WHAT WE GAVE UP:

23 yr old lefty Chico was 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 81 IP at Tennessee. 21/63 B/K ratio 6 HRA

23 yr old righty Mock was 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 131 IP at Tennessee. 50/117 BB/k 14 HRA

Mock was having a disappointing season, but I liked both these guys and feel that within a couple of years they would have been up here and contributing. Giving up BOTH of these guys, from an organization THIN at pitching is a very very very large price to pay.

WHAT WE GOT:

Livan's numbers...(The ones that matter)

GB/FB Ratio

03-1.48
04-1.29
05-1.07
06-0.89

K/9

03-6.87
04-6.57
05-5.37
06-5.46

k/bb

03-3.12
04-2.24
05-1.75
06-1.71

HR/Per IP
03-.116
04-.102
05-.101
06-.150

He may only be 31 years old, but that is an OLD 31. He has logged 200 innings or more in 8 straight seasons....is ALWAYS at the top of the PAP lists (pitcher abuse points) over at BP, and has been allowed to run up insane pitch counts by Frank Robby.

OK....here is the ONLY justification:

Prior to injuring his knee last year, he was doing very well. He was 12-3 with a 3.48 ERA at the all star break. But fell to 3-7 with a 4.58 after the all star break and pretty much fell off a cliff.

For all of this year, save his last 3-4 starts, he has been horrible. So somewhere, somehow, they must feel that he is "over" his knee injury and ready to regain his form of pre-all star break 05. But from what I hear, he topped out at 85 MPH yesterday and was getting it done with smoke and mirrors. Will that work here?

Oh well.....this sure smells like the bad old days. But make no mistake about it, this was Josh Byrnes deal all the way. This is not ownership forcing him to make a move. While I support most of what JB has done, I don't think he is infallible. (Grimsley and Mulholland are good examples of his fallibility).

And I think this is a mistake. WAY WAY WAY too high a price to pay with BOTH those two 23 year old pitchers PLUS owing Livan about 9+ million between now and the end of next year.

We'll have to wait and see if the D backs get some money back in the deal. Hopefully they did, and it is alot. Otherwise they just shot their budget to aquire another starting pitcher next year. And that may end up being the biggest price of all.

Anyway, the potential for an ugly list to get uglier and longer has just been increased

Penny
Capuano
Patterson
????
????

Well, geez, Levski. That took all the fun out of it. After taunting us for weeks about how Omar was going to be an idiot and trade prospects for a bum like Livan, how can you be all consistent about it and rip your GM for being an idiot and trading prospects for a bum like Livan?

Sheesh. You're supposed to do an about face and suddenly see the light, recognizing the wonderfulness that is Livan, and how the Snakes having been missing a Hernandez ever since the El Duque deal, and then we make fun of you for your hypocrisy, and pull up thread after thread to remind you of it . . . .

Oh, never mind.

<Takes ball and goes home.>

He's a HR-happy neutral pitcher who doesn't K many batters.

They've re-acquired Russ Ortiz.

The other thing to consider is that the Dbacks indeed have quite a few arms in the system. I think they soured on Mock quite a bit, and Chico had his ups and downs, but this seems to be a lot to give up for Livan unless WAS is paying for Livan's salary. I agree with Emeigh that they are decent, but not elite prospects. Still, even decent isn't bad...


Well...yeah...the roster spots that are supposed to go to pitchers are all filled...so I guess by that standard, they have alot of arms. They also have alot of projects and gamble guys, and the odds of any of them actually working out are not that good. The guys putting up good numbers in Tennessee getting promoted to Tucson move up and get rocked, and the guys putting up good numbers in Tucson get promoted to majors and get rocked.

This team still does not have even one starter on the horizon that looks like a real good bet to make a serious contribution within the next 12 months at the major league level. To my way of thinking, Chico and Mock may have limited upside, but at this point, you this organization is THIN at pitching, and you don't trade from an already thin talent base.

Robert...FYI, we are all posting at AZ central site while Bullpen is down

Nice trade for the Nats, even if they're paying for Livan's freight. Two solid arms.

Oh, and also: very classy, Rob.

The Mets are/were a lot less desperate to trade for a bum like Livan than the Dbacks apparently are/were. That's the bottom line.

OTOH, the Dbacks rotation is sh!t right now, and has been for a while. Byrnes did the right thing to get rid of El Duque, and Julio was a very good return for him. No complaints about that trade.

But the reality is also that the Dbacks are 1 game back of Cinci for the WC, 2 games back for the NL west, and they have no chance to do anything this year without another starting pitcher. Is Livan it? I really doubt it.

At this point, this looks like a pretty bad trade for AZ...

The more I think about it, the more I think the organization made the wrong choice between Rizzo and Byrnes.

Oh, and also: very classy, Rob.

Thanks!

And, just to recap: PWN3D!!!!

Trachsel for Justin Upton.

This is a great deal for AZ, btw. They get an ace, someone who can replace Webb, for not only the strech run and the playoffs, but also opening day and ALL of next year for some pitching prospects that will never pan out. Byrnes' fetish for Hispanic ballplayers continues to pay off. I hope he's been working on his street Spanish coz he's going to need it.

Webb is going to look very good in the orange and blue.

Why would Minaya be that dumb to trade Trax for Upton? That's sheer stupidity; Omar is much smarter than that.

Wouldn't we already know if the Nats were sending a truck full of cash to the desert? I mean, all transactions that include more than $1 million must be approved, no? Since this trade is official and not pending approval, can't we assume that the Nats are not paying freight on this one?

how can you be all consistent about it and rip your GM for being an idiot and trading prospects for a bum like Livan?


What was it that Emerson said about consistency being the hobgoblin of foolish minds?

I like this trade for the Dbacks - don't know who their no.5 is, but I suspect that Livan gives them a better chance than their current no.5.

<iByrnes' fetish for Hispanic ballplayers continues to pay off. I hope he's been working on his street Spanish coz he's going to need it.
></i>

I'm figuring that Levski won't be cracking any more mariachi jokes for a while.

You're probably right, McNally. Good trade for Mike Rizzo.

You're probably right, McNally.

Someone archive this page. Stat!

How do you figure, 'skoli? Word is all playoff teams need to bring at least mariachi player to the playoffs, and with Omar having rounded up half of Peru on his team, the Dbacks had to take desperate measures to get someone for the clay flute...

Wouldn't we already know if the Nats were sending a truck full of cash to the desert? I mean, all transactions that include more than $1 million must be approved, no?

I believe that the commissioner's approval is only required on cash payments that do not pay down a salary.

That is, if the money changing hands simply pays for Livan's salary, or some part of it, the commissioner isn't involved.

If Bowden tried to pay $5M for Chico and Mock, then Selig would have to rule on the trade.

I'll be in the minority. I like this trade for the Dbacks... I think Livan is mucho underrated and will be a big addition.

Y'all have to take it easier on Josh Byrnes. First of all, when you're in a race the return on marginal wins is stratospheric, so taking a risk on a veteran in this circumstance is eminently defensible.

As to whether this is the right veteran pitcher, note that some of Livan's lackluster stats are a simple result of "abuse hangover," or the well-documented tendency to have a bad start after an abusive outing.

1) On June 15, F Robby left him in for 138 pitches against the Rox. In his next outing at Fenway, Livan got rocked for 6 runs in 1.2 IP.

2) On July 1, Livan threw 131 pitches in a win against Tampa, but gave up 7 runs in 1.2 IP in his next outing against the Fish.

3) Since then, however, he has posted 5 consecutive quality starts (though in yesterday's F Robby again pushed him, to 120 pitches).

Another reason I like this move is that Livan has previously shown an ability to help other pitchers (notably Javier Vazquez), and the D-Backs have a few young Latino hurlers to whom he might become a mentor. In any case, it's not our money Byrnes is risking, is it?

i'd hestitate a bit before complaining. chico and mock are decent arms, it's probably a good deal for the nats no matter what cash they kick in... but i bet they do kick in some cash, several million at least.

livan has been counted out before. i think he's still got something left.

of course, i'd be horrified if the braves traded for him at this point, but the dbacks are in much better shape both for this postseason and going forward than are the braves; we can't afford to give up anything of value or make any salary mistakes any more.

I think Livan is mucho underrated and will be a big addition.

Haven't watched him pitch this year have you?

I like to believe you, MHS. I do know the Dbacks need starting pitching badly. Really badly. I also know that neither Chico nor Mock were in AZ's plans for the next couple of years; the Dbacks do have quite a few live arms to step up in the near future, and they can give up Chico and Moss and not suffer much down the road. That's the benefit of having a deep farm system, unlike, say, the Mets.

This trade will really hinge on Livan's knee. He has looked a lot better lately, btw. If that's a sign that his knee is healthy now, and he can give 7 innings consistently down the road, then this trade will work out for both parties. The other factor here is salary; I still don't know how much, if any, of Livan's salary is covered by the Nats. Also, Livan is signed through next year at a reasonable rate, especially if the Nats are pitcing in cash.

Thanks!

And, just to recap: PWN3D!!!!

Look, you spelled the word 'owned' with a P and 3, thereby making it funny. Thanks for stopping by.

------------------------------------------

Doesn't look so good for the D'Backs, but if Livan gives them a 4.00 down the stretch and they sneak into the playoffs, then it isn't such a bad move (if you don't mind evaluating trades with hindsight, what is).

He's the right-handed latin model of Randy Jones.

On the subject of "abuse hangover," BTW, see this brief article.

In any case, it's not our money Byrnes is risking, is it?

I couldn't possibly care less about the money in any real sense, but I'm well-aware the team is on a budget the next couple of years, at least. Until I hear otherwise, they've just given 10% of that for '07 to a guy who sucks, is going to suck harder in Chase, and will be made to suck harder than that because the candy-ass GM refuses to put his best players in the outfield.

The prospects involved make this insulting.

I fully expect to see Roger Dorn at third tonight.

Robert, your opinions of anyone over the age of 26 on the Dbacks roster are well known.

Now relax a little bit, OK?

Well, there is no doubt that the Diamondbacks are looking for a different type upgrade than the Mets would be. They're looking for an in-season upgrade, which can mean anywhere in the rotation. The Mets were looking for a post-season upgrade, which really means someone who can be good enough to be a # 3 starter and be a difference maker against really good line-ups. Livan is far more likely to be able to make a difference of the type the Snakes are looking for than he would have been apt to help the Mets, who plainly have at least four starters better than Livan.

That said, I find it very hard to believe Livan Hernandez is going to be any good as a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark. A few good starts do not convince me he's "back," and even decent pitching prospects are too high a price to pay for the not-great likelihood he'll give them anything valuable.

But you know what? As OFF said, karma IS a ####. So I'm going to lay off. If we beat up too much on this deal, you know what's going to happen, don't you? The Diamondbacks are going to win either the West or the wild card, and the Mets are going to see them, and Livan, in the post-season. And I don't want karma coming after us.

...is going to suck harder in Chase...

Well, it's only 16 IP, but Livan's ERA in that park over '03-'05 is 2.25, with 1 HRA.

And if he does suck in that park, at least he's a useful pinch-hitter. ;-)

Well, it's only 16 IP, but Livan's ERA in that park over '03-'05 is 2.25, with 1 HRA.

Take a look at the offenses (pun intended) the D-backs ran out those years.

Livan over his last 6 or 7 starts or so is a different pitcher than during his first 2 months.

Just fire up mlb.tv from early in the season and yesterday, and you'll see he's a different pitcher. For whatever reason, he was hanging his slider. It had no movement and just sort of rolled into the zone about 3/4 of the time he threw it. Since the ASB, he's got the command of it back, and that's made all the difference.

Don't worry next year Omar will be taking him off your hands for Heath Bell

What was it that Emerson said about consistency being the hobgoblin of foolish minds?

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

Dang, I wanted to see Nippert in the rotation. The Dodgers can kiss their playoff spot good bye. :-(

Word is that the Nats are sending $2m in the deal.

Robert, your opinions of anyone over the age of 26 on the Dbacks roster are well known.

Now relax a little bit, OK?

I would if the GM would reacquire his balls, rather than keep half-assing it like Garagiola.

Want to go for it this year? Fine, but be sure to put your best team on the field: Platoon Gonzo, DFA/bench Green, play Q everyday, etc.

Want to go for it next year? Fine, get Young up here, play Q everyday, etc.

Placateball doesn't work.

I actually think that this trade makes good sense for both teams. Washington can use the payroll flexibility to help retain Soriano or sign another impact player over the winter. The get some marginal pitching prospects in the process.

For a nominal price (in terms of talent given up) the Dbacks get an innings eater at the back end of rotation, which has a good deal of utility for a team whose rotation has struggled to go deep into games. Hernandez's contract is fair at $7-8MM/yr for the remainder of 2006 and 2007.

The Dbacks have a shot at winning the NL West in 2006 and this move improves their chances a big. Hernandez will also have his uses next year, or they can try to flip him in the off-season/ST if he appears to be superfluous (assuming his health holds up). Neither of the arms figure to be impact players.

A modest upgrade for a nominal cost is exactly the type of move that Byrnes should be making at this point. I don't see a lot to complain about.

My emoticon got caught in the middle of a line break. >:o. Anyway, I think we should be able to agree that Livan > Nippert. Also, Livan seems to be benefiting recently from the plexi-glass principle.

What was it that Emerson said about consistency being the hobgoblin of foolish minds?

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

PWN3D?!

This deal was only made because Texas beat Arizona in the Kip Wells sweepstakes.

The Diamondbacks could have gotten Kip Wells for just one of these prospects and wouldn't haven to be on the hook for Livian next year too.

Need to be pretty slow at the switch to have DL make a move before you're ready to do so.

Except that Wells is toast. I'd take Livan over Wells, clay flute and all...

If the D'backs made the playoffs, then this was a good move for them. If they don't then it wasn't.

But you know what? As OFF said, karma IS a ####. So I'm going to lay off. If we beat up too much on this deal, you know what's going to happen, don't you? The Diamondbacks are going to win either the West or the wild card, and the Mets are going to see them, and Livan, in the post-season. And I don't want karma coming after us.


Something to root for. Levski and I will be at that game if it happens at Shea.

Don't forget that his hitting is worth almost 2 tenths of a run in ERA. Seriously. Unless of course, a manager sac bunts the guy all the time.

Chico is the kid I really wanted the Royals to pick in the Rule 5. Good trade for BODES!

Platoon Gonzo, DFA/bench Green, play Q everyday, etc.

Do you really think these moves would produce any significant impact? I don't. Gonzo is playing well and Q hardly figures to outproduce Green over the remainder of the season. I personally have no problems with how Melvin has been handling the Gonzo/Green/Quentin troika.

In fact, I have no problems with the moves Byrnes has made on offense. Pitching is where he's been hand-cuffed, but that is also due to the fact the Dbacks had no depth in the minors in terms of pitching, due to the fact previous GM dumped guys like JPatt and Capuano, for example.

***

I'm still in the camp that this is a fairly bad trade for AZ, but I'm guilty of being a big AZ fanboy and I really like Matt Chico; I think he's got very good stuff and great personality. I am certainly aware that these two prospects aren't anywhere close to being elite.

It's nice to know AZ is getting some cash back, but I was hoping for more than $2m. Something like $2m/year would've been a lot nicer. And I am willing to give Livan credit for his recent starts; I actually didn't know he had a knee surgery and he's been recovering from that.

A healthy Livan can certainly help AZ this year and in 2007 A LOT more than Chico and Mock would; in fact, I don't think Chico or Mock would see the majors until 2008. The last two drafts of the Dbacks were pitching heavy; there are a lot of arms in the system and the Dbacks will start facing tough choices on them in the next couple of years. Chico and Mock were the ones who were sent out for immediate help, if we can call Livan help.

***

I think Byrnes had to deal with quite a bit of discontent in the clubhouse right after the trade deadline, when it became apparent that AZ tried to acquire Westbrook or Zito but couldn't. I'm also guessing that the cost of acquiring Zito or Westbrook would've been a lot higher before July 31 than Livan. While Zito and Westbrook may arguably be better pitchers than Livan, they would've cost too much, and probably weren't worth it. At least now Byrnes can add a starter to the rotation for the stretch run, and give a reason to the veterans to shut up and put up.

***

Btw, has anyone noticed that Gonzo has been playing like a man possessed since the All star?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/4576/splits

The only way this trade makes ANY sense for AZ is if the Nats are sending A LOT (and I mean bolus) of cash back along with Livan... enough cash to cover his salary this year and next year. Otherwise this is fn retarded.

Or D'backs prospects are just generally overrated (see Jackson, Conor).

Shoe, Lev, Robert, et al. . .

Not sure I understand the outrage. Don't get me wrong, i was all set on seeing Chico or Mock emerge as a real contributor in Phoenix at some point. But as has been noted, neither is a premier prospect. Moreover, aren't both past three years, requiring that they be added to the 40-man next year, despite neither being close to MLB-ready? (THAT is what I believe is meant by those mentioning Arizona's "surplus" of arms - they have more they will have to 'roster-protect' than they have upcoming roster spaces.)

Chico in particular really only succeeded at high-A and AA after failing at both levels the first time around. At 21 (A+) and 22 (AA), he wasn't exactly "too young" for either level. That both 23-year-olds are having varying levels of success at AA this year just doesn't inspire termendous amounts of confidence.

Livan, on the other hand, looks to be healthy again and can do something no one not named "Webb" has been able to do in the Zonie rotation all year - eat innings. The bullpen is getting shredded. Enrique Gonzalez is about to pile up more IPs than he has ever thrown in his career by several orders of magnitude. BoMel is ALREADY starting to pull a 'Villarreal' on the pitcher formerly known as Adriano. SOMEone needs to put a stop to this and there CLEARLY is no answer in Tucson.

Frankly, I don't care if Livan goes 0-10 the rest of this season with a 6-handle ERA. Just knowing you can count on him to pitch his innings is enough for me. Knowing this might save the careers of Pena and EnGon is worth two middling, minor league arms.

That Livan's contract is NOT unreasonable and, as a bonus, it appears the Nationals will pay some of that, makes this all the more palatable.

To be clear, I am in no way suggesting Byrnesy worked Rizzo over. But I just can't develop much outrage. I see this as a fairly even trade for both sides. But as a huge believer in Pena and someone with an optomistic view of EnGon, I am relieved to see some help on the way.

Gonzo is playing well and Q hardly figures to outproduce Green over the remainder of the season. I personally have no problems with how Melvin has been handling the Gonzo/Green/Quentin troika.

Surely, playing Quentin would improve their defense, at least?

Hi kevin,

Photos of Dustin Pedroia at Playgirl.com. Head on over; you can contribute better over there.

Well, Bowden has looked pretty good for the last month or so.

If Livan can leave his struggles behind and eat innings at a 105-110 ERA+ rate, then I like this deal for both sides. If those insane workloads have finally caught up with him, watch out!

I don't think this is a bad move for the D-Backs.

1) Those pitching prospects look pretty mediocre to me. I hadn't heard of either of them and they're both 23 and not exactly dominating the minors.

2) The D-Backs are 2 games out of the west and just need to upgrade their #5 to get value out of this (as stated above, this is unlike the Mets who would have at the very least needed to upgrad their #4 to get value).

3) According to Cot's contracts the D-Backs are getting $2M from the Nats meaning they have to pay about $2.5M for the rest of '06 and $5M (of the $7M) for '07.

4) Claudio Vargas is a bad pitcher.

Now, if Livan is done this is still a waste and a poor move. Presumable the AZ scouts (if they have scouts, Byrnes might just be a spreadsheet guy for all I know) have suggested that he's not completey toast. Not saying it's a good move but I wouldn't bother getting too upset about it if I was an AZ fan.

Sam, Chris Dial's numbers indicate that Gonzo is above average in LF; Green's a bit below average in RF, over the first half of the season. I personally would play Q over Green in RF for defense, but I doubt the overall projected contribution of Q over Green for the rest of the season is that great so that AZ should DFA Green. Green has value.

Or D'backs prospects are just generally overrated (see Jackson, Conor).

Jackson should be a pretty good player, though I'm not sure what exactly the D-Back fans expected of him.

My MLE on him (linked on this site back in Sept 2005) had him at 273/356/408

Right now he's at 274/361/422. Probably will turn into at least a 290/380/450 type of hitter. If that's not good enough I'd trade Casey Kotchman for him.

Levski, aren't you ticked that Byrnes didn't try to get Russ Ortiz?

Surely, playing Quentin would improve their defense, at least?

Sam - in general, I would agree. But I have developed some scepticism over the last week or two with regard to Q's defense. I was at yesterday's game and again was aghast at the clumsy route he took on Ensberg's line drive. Granted, the guy made an athletic diving catch and was able to hang on to the 'snow cone.' But my read from behind the plate was that he should have been able to catch the ball without the tumbling dive that jarred the ball into its 'snow cone' position and put him at risk.

If this were an isolated instance, I wouldn't be giving it a second thought. But it seems to be happening with some regularity and it is disturbing to me for BABIP and injury reasons. (and I am a huge fan of Quentin)

ARM, Jackson has been as good as I expected him to be this year. No one claimed that he'd outhomer Prince Fielder or be the second coming of Albert Pujols. Long term, Jackson is about as solid of a prospect as they come.

Levski, aren't you ticked that Byrnes didn't try to get Russ Ortiz?

No. He's ticked that the D'backs coudn't include the Red Sox in a three-way that would have sent Callaspo to Boston for Pedroia.

Surely, playing Quentin would improve their defense, at least?

Yes, quite a bit, as Green is a total butcher in RF.

A healthy Livan can certainly help AZ this year and in 2007 A LOT more than Chico and Mock would; in fact, I don't think Chico or Mock would see the majors until 2008. The last two drafts of the Dbacks were pitching heavy; there are a lot of arms in the system and the Dbacks will start facing tough choices on them in the next couple of years. Chico and Mock were the ones who were sent out for immediate help, if we can call Livan help.

Would you give Livan a one-year $7 million contract? This trade is PR, plain and simple.

Livan, on the other hand, looks to be healthy again and can do something no one not named "Webb" has been able to do in the Zonie rotation all year - eat innings. The bullpen is getting shredded. Enrique Gonzalez is about to pile up more IPs than he has ever thrown in his career by several orders of magnitude. BoMel is ALREADY starting to pull a 'Villarreal' on the pitcher formerly known as Adriano. SOMEone needs to put a stop to this and there CLEARLY is no answer in Tucson.

The 'pen is getting shredded because Byrnes and Melvin won't ever hang a starter out to dry, and haven't had a long man for any length of time since Grimsley. They could've used Ortiz for garbage innings to save the bullpen or could use Edgar, but they don't. If Livan sucks, he won't have the opportunity to eat innings.

Levski, aren't you ticked that Byrnes didn't try to get Russ Ortiz?

I heard Theo called him up and told him to lay off Russ; he's got Red Sox written all over him, the moment the Sox manage to get a second catering company to provide a long enough buffet for David Wells, Curt Schilling AND Russ Ortiz in the same clubhous.

due to the fact the Dbacks had no depth in the minors in terms of pitching

there are a lot of arms in the system and the Dbacks will start facing tough choices on them in the next couple of years

These were in the same post. For clarification sake, did the first phrase refer to major league-ready help in the minors and the second phrase refer to minor league pitching in general?


By the way, is it a coincidence that this trade happened so soon after the Nippert poor outing?

Sam, Chris Dial's numbers indicate that Gonzo is above average in LF; Green's a bit below average in RF, over the first half of the season.

That's not what they show about Green. They show him as better than only Jason Lane and Jeromy Burnitz among NL right fielders -- and worse than Xavier Nady.

I know Xavier Nady. Xavier Nady was a right fielder of mine. And Shawn Green, if you're no Xavier Nady, then you suck.

I'm not saying they should DFA Green. But I sure think they ought to play Quentin ahead of him. Unless, as SPB suggests, there is enough reason to think Quentin is even worse. And if that's true, then you may just have a longer-term problem on your hand. Because you really shouldn't have a young OFer who is worse defensively than Shawn Green.

SPB Posted: August 07, 2006 at 04:00 PM (#2130482)

Shoe, Lev, Robert, et al. . .

Not sure I understand the outrage.

Maybe I just have a bad case of Russ Ortiz itis....too many similarities...fly ball pitcher, lousy OF defense, (I don't care what Dials numbers say) declining K-rate, loss in velocity. The only thing that gives any hope to me that Livan won't do a header off the upper deck in Chase Field like Ortiz did is that he has better control.

It's not that Chico and Mock are such great prospects, although I think they will be decent, it's that I think Livan will suck. And he is not cheap. The way I read the numbers, they get him for free this year, (big whoop), but owe him 7 million next year. So that means no chance to sign Jason Schmidt...which has been my sincerest best hope. (He is a paradise valley resident and wants to be close to home, so a hometown discount was a possibility)

If this were an isolated instance, I wouldn't be giving it a second thought. But it seems to be happening with some regularity and it is disturbing to me for BABIP and injury reasons. (and I am a huge fan of Quentin)

Kinda makes you wonder what Q would look like if the team started him more than every third or fourth game, doesn't it?

Levski tells me an 'elite' defender like Hudson gets months to adjust to the NL while playing everyday opposite above-average SS, doesn't Q get more than a couple weeks of spot starts?

To clarify what was pointed out in post 79, yes, the first part referred to major-league ready help. The Dbacks brought up everyone from AAA who could throw a ball without falling over, and only Enrique is still in the rotation. Nippert, Edgar didn't work out; Jarvis was horrible, as expected. Heck, there were even calls to bring up old Mets reject Bacsik to Phoenix. That is how bad the options were. Long term (looking at late 07, 08 and beyond) the Dbacks will have quite a few arms to look at, especially the products of the 05 and 06 drafts (Neighborgall, oh yeah!).

Maybe I just have a bad case of Russ Ortiz itis....too many similarities...fly ball pitcher, lousy OF defense, (I don't care what Dials numbers say) declining K-rate, loss in velocity. The only thing that gives any hope to me that Livan won't do a header off the upper deck in Chase Field like Ortiz did is that he has better control.


C'mon, Livan may be homer-prone. But he's not Russ Ortiz bad. He'll make a decent no. 5 starter. An expensive one, albeit, but one the D-backs had to jump on. And it'll keep them out of the way in the offseason pitcher bidding.

Where are these live arms that Levski and Emeigh refer to? They may be live but are they good? Their system looks extremely barren of pitching and this was before the trade. Dustin Nippert has taken major steps back but he could still be a quality starting pitcher, I guess. But after him, the best starting pitching prospects look like Russ Ohlendorf, Gregory Smith and Micah Owings and none of them project to be frontline starters. As far as positional prospects go, Arizona is undoubtedly in the top 3 but their ranking on the pitching side might be in the bottom 3.

To clarify what was pointed out in post 79, yes, the first part referred to major-league ready help. The Dbacks brought up everyone from AAA who could throw a ball without falling over, and only Enrique is still in the rotation. Nippert, Edgar didn't work out; Jarvis was horrible, as expected. Heck, there were even calls to bring up old Mets reject Bacsik to Phoenix. That is how bad the options were. Long term (looking at late 07, 08 and beyond) the Dbacks will have quite a few arms to look at, especially the products of the 05 and 06 drafts (Neighborgall, oh yeah!).


Trachsel and Dial to the Dbacks for prospects - Neighborgall sounds good.

Edgar didn't work out

Edgar, who is 23 years old, was given one start, and 18 innings of work total in the majors this year. 1 walk, 15 k's and 2 homers allowed.

He has thrown all of 83 major league innings, 65 of which came before the age of 22. He is out of options after this season. Yet this organization can't see it's way to give him 5-6 starts with the assurance that he won' be yanked from the rotation if he has a couple of bad starts.

Career minor league numbers pitching in all HITTERS ballparks.

702.2 IP 55 Homers, 163 walks 501 K's

Doesn't scream Cy Young material, obviously, but it says he should be an effective major leaguer if they would stop screwing around with him.

Defensively, Q should be a (much) better defender than Green in RF long term. All the scouting reports I've read on him suggest that he's very good there. I won't be surprised if some of his fielding adventures in the OF are due to simply adjusting to major league ballparks.

And Robert, I'm all for giving Q more than a couple of weeks of spot starts. But you have to be realistic about the Green situation. Just DFAing him isn't the answer, and you know it. And I'd like to see him off the roster, with Q roaming in RF, as much as anyone, including you.

Kevin, why would AZ downgrade their 2B position long term by trading Callaspo for Pedroia? They acquired one chubby kid in Livan already; getting Pedroia would've broken the Dbacks clubhouse buffet budget.

Green has value.

Not at the positions he can play with his contract.

Trachsel and Dial to the Dbacks for prospects - Neighborgall sounds good

I heard that Dial's pen is mightier than his sword bat.

Oh, shoewiz, you should take some of your Edgar love and throw it Livan's way.

I meant Edgar didn't work out in the few starts the Dbacks gave him this year. It's a thin line between leaving Edgar in the rotation a la 2004, and sending him back down so he can work on his development under less pressure.

Edgar is young, he'll be out of options next year, and I hope he shows enough to stick in the rotation in 07. He just wasn't an answer to AZ's questions this year.

And Robert, I'm all for giving Q more than a couple of weeks of spot starts. But you have to be realistic about the Green situation. Just DFAing him isn't the answer, and you know it. And I'd like to see him off the roster, with Q roaming in RF, as much as anyone, including you.

I'm fine with them benching him, or DFA'ing Clark and giving Green the back-up 1B/shitty PH job. Byrnes won't do it. He isn't making any unpopular moves during the season, regardless of how much baseball sense they make. That's what is pissing me off. He isn't leveraging his assets in any direction other than the appeasement of an indifferent fanbase.

And Robert, I'm all for giving Q more than a couple of weeks of spot starts. But you have to be realistic about the Green situation. Just DFAing him isn't the answer, and you know it. And I'd like to see him off the roster, with Q roaming in RF, as much as anyone, including you.

So when do they bite the bullet on that situation? If I understand his contract correctly, he's due $9.5M next year, plus a $2M buy-out if they don't exercise his option for 2008 (which obviously they won't). That's a pretty damned untradeable deal, even if he could be traded, which I guess he can't without his permission.

If they let Gonzo go to make room for Quentin, that's all well and good, but then they're left with the lesser of the two old guys (Green instead of Gonzo) in the bargain. Oy.

I would LOVE to see Neighborgall pitch in the majors. Hell i'd love to see him pitch in the minors. When he is warming up in the bullpen, does he injure passing spectators, or is it only when he comes into games that he forgets how to throw the ball anywhere near the plate?

here's his line for this year:

15 G, 10.2 IP, 8 H, 19 R, 19 ER, 1 HR, 33 BB, 12 K

plus a sh**load of wild pitches and HBP that aren't showing up.

Here are his last 5 appearances:

Date IP ER BB
8/06 0.0 1 3
8/03 0.2 4 6
8/01 0.0 2 2
7/29 1.0 1 2
7/25 0.0 0 3</pre>
Pretty damn impressive IMHO... 8 ER in 1.2 IP with 16 BB

Sam,

Byrnes managed to move two sh!tty contracts last offseason (Glaus, Vazquez); I trust he'll find a way to move Green. Byrnes does know when to bite the bullet and release a player what that player is worthless; the DFAed Russ Ortiz, instead of hanging onto him to "get his veteran mojo back"; he DFAed guys like Mullholland, Choate, Koplove, as they were useless. Byrnes knows that Green has value, and he knows that he'll have more options to move him in the offseason, rather than middle of August. His track record in these situation is good enough for me...

Byrnes managed to move two sh!tty contracts last offseason (Glaus, Vazquez); I trust he'll find a way to move Green.

Those were difficult, but doable. To move Green would be a feat worthy of one of the all-time greats. Glaus was a third baseman still in his 20s coming off a pretty damned productive year in Phoenix (125 OPS+). Vazquez was a starting pitcher, also still in his 20s, coming off an average season (ERA+: 99) -- there's always a market for those.

Green, OTOH, is a corner outfielder now entering his mid-30s whose power has been on the wane for years, who doesn't play good defense, and who is massively overpaid. Where's the market for THAT? To deal that away, Byrnes will have to (a) pair Green with someone who has value, whom Byrnes does NOT want to lose, and/or (b) take back some other bad contract in exchange, and/or (c) play the P.T. Barnum card, and get Dave Littlefield or Jim Duquette on the phone.

And then he has to get Green to agree to the deal, assuming he can strike one. I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as you think.

I'd say B) is the most likely scenario.

I can see Shawn Green spearheading the youth movement in San Fran, btw, once Bonds and Alou are gone. Green single handedly would lower the roster age by a factor of 10...

There was also a certain soon-to-be Nationals executive still in the fold when the Glaus and Vazquez deals were made . . . I wonder what he's been up to as of late?

But after him, the best starting pitching prospects look like Russ Ohlendorf, Gregory Smith and Micah Owings and none of them project to be frontline starters.

Owings does, and Smith and Ohlendorf look like middle-of-the-rotation guys. Steven Jackson, who missed some time with an injury, has taken a big step forward this year as well, and don't count out Eddie Baeza, who handled himself well at South Bend although he's finding the sledding a bit tougher at Lancaster.

-- MWE

Don't forget Owings is a good hitter too...I hear thats worth 0.20 off his ERA