If all five starters are healthy and productive, than the decision could be difficult.

They should have such problems.

But it seems fairly obvious that Chamberlain will be used as a reliever for half the season then make the transition to become a starter.

That doesn't seem obvious to me.

If all five starters are healthy and productive, than the decision could be difficult.

Rivera 96!

Especially given that there's a pretty good chance that the Yankees won't have any good 8th inning options besides Joba, I agree it's hardly certain that he'll move into the rotation, nor is it certain that's obviously the best thing to do this year.

It seems obvious that the Yankees will want to try to make Joba a starter at some point, but there's a good chance that in 2008, replacement level in the pen will be a good step lower than replacement level in the rotation (say, Horne or one of the AAAA brigade making a developmental step). And Joba's already a great relief pitcher, he probably isn't a particularly great starter yet. To what degree would it inhibit Chamberlain's future development to pitch a season, rather than a half season, in the bullpen? That seems pretty open, and of course, pretty unanswerable.

Certainly, if two of Ramirez, Hawkins, Farnsworth and Albaladejo step up, and Mussina's throwing 83 and Pettitte's elbow is balky, the decision will be easy. But I think there are quite a few 2007 scenarios where it'll be a tough judgment call for the Yankees, not just if all five starters are healthy and effective.

It could be a really interesting test for Girardi.

I doubt it would significantly impede his development to pitch a whole season as a reliever, but the longer he stays in the bullpen, the less likely he ever gets out. I think that if he doesn't move to the rotation this year, he never does, and the Yankees will be wasting an ace starter as a short reliever--which is even worse than wasting an average starter as a short reliever, something many teams are doing.

the Yankees will be wasting an ace starter as a short reliever

They might be, but they probably won't. It's highly unlikely that Joba Chamberlain will become an ace starter - and Joba Chamberlain is among the top five prospects in baseball most likely to become an ace starter. It's hugely overstating your case to claim that he's a great starting pitcher - that's precisely what's in doubt when young pitchers are moved to the bullpen.

Didn't the Twins stick Santana in the pen for a long while? Doesn't seem to have hurt him.

Cashman recently said that Joba will shift to the rotation at mid-season. Barring a serioius injury to Rivera, I see no reason to disbelieve him.

-It's really hard to project usage patterns a half-season out. I don't think Cashman is lying, but I think the plausible scenario of the Yankees not having a trustworthy #2 in the bullpen other than Chamberlain would create a significant decision point.

-There's also a debate as to whether it's the right thing to do. If the Yankees have been clear with Chamberlain that they will move him, that creates added pressure to put him in the rotation, becuase you always want to follow through on promises to young stars. But I don't know how either side exactly perceives things, so I think there's a pretty good chance that the Yankees will find themselves in a situation where they would be right to keep Chamberlain in high-lev relief all year.

They might be, but they probably won't. It's highly unlikely that Joba Chamberlain will become an ace starter - and Joba Chamberlain is among the top five prospects in baseball most likely to become an ace starter. It's hugely overstating your case to claim that he's a great starting pitcher - that's precisely what's in doubt when young pitchers are moved to the bullpen.


I think if Joba is experiencing extreme success in the pen, there's a very good chance that the Yankees will never move him, no matter what happens in the rotation.

I'm not sure that if they really cut him loose and he puts up a 2.00ish ERA with around a 1.00 WHIP in 100 innings that they'd be better served with 180-200 innings of 3.50 ERA.

I think that if he doesn't move to the rotation this year, he never does

Agreed.

and the Yankees will be wasting an ace starter as a short reliever

Disagree. If last year was a good indication of Joba's real talent as a reliever, and the Yanks can be confident that they'll have one of the very best relief pitchers in the majors for the next 5 (or 10 or 15) years, I don't think it's a waste to keep him in the bullpen. I wouldn't be quick to trade my ace reliever for a potential ace starter. Or, a bird in the hand beats two in the bush.

It's highly unlikely that Joba Chamberlain will become an ace starter - and Joba Chamberlain is among the top five prospects in baseball most likely to become an ace starter.

Don't misunderestimate the predictive value of an 1192 ERA+!

You can't keep a pitcher who may possess three, and maybe one day four, plus pitches in the pen.

I see no reason to disbelieve him.

You think that sometime in late June, the Yankees, (most likely) in playoff contention, pull (most likely) their best reliever out of the pen, and send him to AAA for a month to stretch him out as a starter?

Or do they do the stretching out in the majors and have a starter on a very low pitch count for a month?
Or do they take a guy throwing one or two innings at a time and make him a 100 pitch starter right away (obviously not)?

Reliever to starter in season makes no sense unless the Yankees are completely out of playoff contention.

You can't keep a pitcher who may possess three, and maybe one day four, plus pitches in the pen.

Well, it's all on that probability. Is Joba's curve really that good? How good will his slider and fastball be if he has to throw 100 pitches instead of 15?

Obviously, if Joba Chamberlain is as good as you think he is, then he should be starting. I don't think that's a given.

You can't keep a pitcher who may possess three, and maybe one day four, plus pitches in the pen.

Especially not when you have a farm system loaded with power arms. Joba might be the best reliever out of the pitchers the Yanks have developed but there are an awful lot more in the system that may not be as good as he is, but can be more than serviceable.

I believe Humberto Sanchez is supposed to be the closer of the future.

Obviously, if Joba Chamberlain is as good as you think he is, then he should be starting. I don't think that's a given.

It's not a given, but why wouldn't you try?

It's not a given, but why wouldn't you try?

You should certainly try at some point. I said that above. I just don't think that the Yankees built a roster for 2008 that is particularly conducive to making the attempt. They are very shaky in late inning relief without Chamberlain, and they have solid depth in the rotation.

EDIT: It becomes clear that Rich (#13) might have been talking about the long run, and not just 2008 - in fact, that's probably the better reading of his post. In that case, I agree with him, basically.

They are very shaky in late inning relief without Chamberlain, and they have solid depth in the rotation.

Yeah, but depth in the rotation is the same thing as depth in the bullpen. No reason Horne can't come up and throw some innings out of the bullpen. Moose may gain the extra velocity he needs on his fastball if he pitches out of the bullpen. I really think that the best thing the Yanks can do is put the five best starters in the starting rotation. I think giving Moose an audition for a month or two is a good idea, but if it doesn't work out, you have to consider the rotation ahead of the bullpen. That will give them the best opportunity to win the most regular season games. When the playoffs start, then I might consider throwing Joba back in the pen.

Well, it's all on that probability. Is Joba's curve really that good? How good will his slider and fastball be if he has to throw 100 pitches instead of 15?

Well, here's what baseball america thought about joba's pitches in ranking the Yankees system:

Best Fastball Joba Chamberlain
Best Curveball Joba Chamberlain
Best Slider Joba Chamberlain

it was certainly a plus-plus/plus pitch when he threw it last year ...

I'm not sure that if they really cut him loose and he puts up a 2.00ish ERA with around a 1.00 WHIP in 100 innings that they'd be better served with 180-200 innings of 3.50 ERA.

But no one today puts up 100 IP in relief year in and year out. A top RP pitches 70 IP vs. 200-220 for a top starter.

Joba needs to start. As a Yankee fan I don't care one bit if it costs them a playoff appearance this year.

This whole exercise is about developing an ace starter for the next ten years.

If they wanted to use Joba as an RP, they should have traded him for Santana.

You build your pen out of guys not good enough to start.

"And Joba's already a great relief pitcher,"

I like to see 35 MLB IP first, but then I always was a traditionalist.

Good potential.

Reliever to starter in season makes no sense unless the Yankees are completely out of playoff contention.

This has been done lots throughout baseball history. The O's used to do this (Palmer, Alexander, to a certain extent Flanagan and Garland who managed 230+ innings in 25 starts and 13 relief appearances!). More recently, the Astros (Elarton 1999, Oswalt 2001 ... though he got moved into the rotation earlier than intended) and of course Santana. As long as they give Chamberlain a reasonable number of multi-inning outings as a reliever, he can make the transition to starter with minimal fuss.

I'd still have some form of Joba rules in effect. No more than 4 innings in a week, preferably with at least one 2 inning outing (preceded and followed by a day off).

I'm not sure that if they really cut him loose and he puts up a 2.00ish ERA with around a 1.00 WHIP in 100 innings that they'd be better served with 180-200 innings of 3.50 ERA.

There are probably few things riskier for a 22-year-old pitcher than 180-200 IP of starting ... but 100 IP of high-leverage relief is probably one of them.

There are probably few things riskier for a 22-year-old pitcher than 180-200 IP of starting ... but 100 IP of high-leverage relief is probably one of them.

Oscar Villarreal thinks you're crazy...