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Thursday, December 13, 2007

LoHud: Abraham: The great debate on Chien-Ming Wang continues

Ok...Who’s the wiseass that switched the Michael Kay Mailbag on me?

Here is an e-mail I just received. It was, of course, anonymous:

“Wang doesn’t strike anyone out and depends on the ridiculous number of groundballs he’s able to create being turned into outs. This is not a reliable strategy that will produce consistent results over a career. It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out in the past, no pitcher with a K/9 below the league average has gone on to have a meaningful career. He’s in no way in the same class as someone like Beckett and is most definitely not an ace. Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts. He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.

So, the 417.1 innings Wang has pitched the last two seasons are a short-term mirage. His going 38-13 is a sign of not having a reliable strategy. But the 5.2 poor innings he had in the playoffs, those are a sign that he can’t be counted on.

I think I got my first Bill James report in 1988 and I just received his 2008 Handbook in the mail. His approach is endlessly fascinating. But when the statheads like my anonymous friend leave no room for humanity is where they lose me.

Repoz Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:53 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsNY Yankees

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   1. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!)  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 07:21 AM (#2643503)
As Bill himself would say:

Pass.
   2. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates)  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 07:43 AM (#2643507)
Actually, the subsequent two paragraphs of Abraham's entry are also important, and should have been included in the preview:

"Wang has made only 80 starts in his career, most with two pitches. I’ve stood there and watched him work on other pitches in the bullpen. I’ve talked to him at length about it. He knows people sit on his sinker. Did you know that his slider was his best pitch in college but the Yankees had him dump it when he had shoulder issues? Now he’s healthy and he’s working on it again. He also is doing a lot of work on a changeup.

This guy shows up every five days, he pitches deep into games and he has handled almost every big-game assignment with aplomb. Why people insist on running him down remains a mystery to me."
   3. The Essex Snead  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:32 AM (#2643522)
But when the statheads like my anonymous friend leave no room for humanity is where they lose me.

Will someone please think of the humanity!?!?!?
   4. Matt Garza smells it deep (Mr. Tapeworm)  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:36 AM (#2643524)
It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out in the past, no pitcher with a K/9 below the league average has gone on to have a meaningful career.

I doubt Bill James would have actually pointed this out, because he must have been aware of Tommy John, he of the career 4.3 K/9. Unless 288 wins isn't "meaningful."
   5. El Hijo del Ron Santo (Alan Keiper)  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:48 AM (#2643532)
It was actually half the league average.
   6. John DiFool2  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:06 AM (#2643547)
James was most certainly aware of Tommy John, and mentioned him in the article I read in the NBJHA. 4.3/9 had much more mileage in John's day than it does today (4.5/9 for Wang in '07).

That said, Wang has a very reasonable chance to develop a strikeout pitch and drive both his value and expected career length significantly upwards.
   7. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:16 AM (#2643558)
there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts. He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.

I'll admit that my senility is advancing by the day, but I seem to recall a bunch of walks, homers and loud line drives in those two bad playoff starts. I think he'd have gotten bombed even if the ground balls didn't get through.
   8. Dan The Mediocre  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:20 AM (#2643564)
Unless 288 wins isn't "meaningful."


That's what the BBWAA said, and that's good enough for me!
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:24 AM (#2643572)
"Will someone please think of the humanity!?!?!?"

Oh, the...
   10. JPWF13  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:51 AM (#2643606)
I doubt Bill James would have actually pointed this out, because he must have been aware of Tommy John, he of the career 4.3 K/9. Unless 288 wins isn't "meaningful."


Actually James discussed John at great length, to paraphrase, whenever he told people that you need a high K rate (or at least start out with one), people would always argue with him and invariably say:
"What about all those pitchers Tommy John"? and he'd answer:

1: What pitchers? There is only one Tommy John.
2: Tommy John is not really Tommy John, most of his career he was right at and sometimes over league average k/9.

His claim was that John was the dividing line, you could be successful fro a long time by suppressing HRs and walks, so long as you could keep your K-rate at about the Tommy John level (relative to league)- any lower and you were doomed.
   11. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 09:58 AM (#2643620)
kev, that's no coincidence. The procedure was named after him because he was the first guy to receive it.
   12. Cowboy Popup  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:16 AM (#2643638)
Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts.

I missed the study that shows high K pitchers never have bad starts.

Did you know that his slider was his best pitch in college but the Yankees had him dump it when he had shoulder issues?

When his slider is on, like it was against the Mets last year, he's capable of striking out 8 or 9 batters a game. If he's able to throw it consistently, or even more then he did last year, then he's going to take the next step up.

What really hurts Wang isn't so much that he's a groundball pitcher but rather he has a cheese grater for a shortstop playing behind him.

Yeah, that's killed him so far in his career. Great point.
   13. aleskel  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:21 AM (#2643645)
we've gone over Wang and the strikeout issue ad nauseum, but it has to be said every time: Wang doesn't get many Ks, but he absolutely keeps the ball in the ballpark. As long as he keeps doing that, he can probably still be a quality pitcher.
   14. Jack Flynn  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:23 AM (#2643646)
Wang is the only Taiwanese pitcher in MLB, correct? Could his low strikeout totals be seen in a cultural context, in the sense that strikeouts were not made a "priority" for him in the way they are for American pitchers?

There's something to be said for the notion that, if you can consistently get outs by making batters hit ground balls to your fielders, an out can be accomplished in 1 to 2 pitches instead of the 4 or 5 it'll typically take to get a strikeout (factoring in balls and foul balls). Fewer pitchers = greater efficiency and the ability to pitch deeper into ballgames. The American fetishization of the strikeout would make it very hard for someone growing up here to buy into that notion - perhaps it's actually part of Wang's gameplan.

Of course, I remember an episode of The Baseball Bunch over 20 years ago when Dan Quisenberry was the guest star. He talked about a pitch he called the "at 'em ball" - which basically meant that when he threw it, he wanted to the batter to hit it "at 'em" (his fielders). Quiz had a very low K/9 rate as well - 3.27 for his career - but was obviously a very successful reliever.

Is Chien Ming Wang simply a descendent of Dan Quisenberry, minus the submarine style and the walrus mustache?
   15. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:29 AM (#2643657)
Wang is the only Taiwanese pitcher in MLB, correct?

Mr. Kuo
10.2 K/9

General Tsao
6.1 K/9
   16. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:32 AM (#2643660)
The hitters catch up to every pitcher eventually. As long as they haven't caught up yet, the best plan is to keep running the pitcher out there and not to worry about his leading indicators.
   17. GregD  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:34 AM (#2643665)
The issue is predictions. Wang's 2006-2007 performance is what it is and his K rate doesn't discount it. I wouldn't use K rate too heavily in Cy Young votes. But I'd sure use it in signing pitchers to long-term contracts.

As a rule, pitchers strike out fewer and fewer batters as they age. There's some variation of course, but K rates often are the highest in their first or second full seasons and then start to fall. If two pitchers each lose, say, 0.3 K per 9 innings per year, the pitcher who starts at 4.5 is going to enter some unknown territory within 3-5 years, while a pitcher who starts at 7.5 has a lot more margin for error. How many pitchers can survive at 6.0? Lots. How many starters can survive at 3.0? None. So a high-K pitcher likely has more years of future success than a low-K pitcher with similar results.

Maybe Wang won't decline. Maybe he's a unique type. You'd have to say it's possible. But is it likely? There have been a lot of low-K pitchers in MLB over the years, and almost all of them had shorter careers than you'd expect. Wang being the exception isn't impossible but is unlikely.

The other issue is whether the K rate should be taken as absolute or relative. Relative to the league, Wang's K rate is far lower than John's. He had a league average K rate most of his career. Is that distinction meaningful? Or is the hard number the key factor?

James said that it seems to be different for relievers.
   18. I am the Can  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:37 AM (#2643668)
Two thoughts on Wang, who I've watched intently:

Statistical evaluations like James's about strikeout pitchers are interesting as descriptive, not so much as predictive. Wang is not Tommy John, nor is he Fidrych. He's a sinkerball pitcher who throws extremely hard and has outstanding control. You couldn't find a half-dozen guys like him in the last hundred years (and of course, I know as soon as I say that, someone is going to pop up a list of fourteen guys in this category).

Right now, Wang's liability is his fastball, not guys sitting on the sinker. There's a hell of a big difference between a good 92-mph sinker and a meat 95-mph fastball, but the line is thin. The problem seems to be when he pitches from the stretch. It's then when the sinker doesn't drop. Cleveland saw a whole lot of those sinkers-that-don't-sink this October. So yeah, I think long-term, he's got to add at least the slider to open up the fastball.
   19. IronChef Chris Wok  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:42 AM (#2643681)
Wang is the only Taiwanese pitcher in MLB, correct?

Well, he's the only one I enjoy seeing fail.
   20. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:44 AM (#2643685)
If you became a fan of an NL West team you could hope for two Taiwanese pitchers to fail at once in every game against the Dodgers.
   21. IronChef Chris Wok  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:46 AM (#2643691)
If you became a fan of an NL West team you could hope for two Taiwanese pitchers to fail at once in every game against the Dodgers.

Btw, when i said Hu was going to be the next Tejada, I didn't mean that he was goign to get named in about 3 hours.
   22. Reno  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:51 AM (#2643706)
I'm the one who sent the "anonymous" e-mail (it was from my Gmail account, so not sure why it was anonymous) to Abraham, and he conveniently edited out the main reason for my e-mail. In his previous post, he argued that Wang compared favorably to Beckett because their ERA and W-L were similar last year. The first sentence in my e-mail, which he removed, was that he would be better off using K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. when comparing two pitchers. The rest was just to show why I didn't think they were comparable.
   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:58 AM (#2643722)
   24. Repoz  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:58 AM (#2643723)
and he conveniently edited out the main reason for my e-mail.

Which is why, as a tribute...I sipped off "subsequent two paragraphs of Abraham's entry are also important, and should have been included in the preview"

HA!
   25. Ron Johnson  Posted: December 13, 2007 at 11:58 AM (#2643906)
kev, that's no coincidence. The procedure was named after him because he was the first guy to receive it.


Actually I think John was merely the first guy that the surgery was successful on. I'm pretty sure that Steve Hargan had the procedure done on him before John and I'd bet there were others.
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