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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Lookout Landing: More on Adam Dunn

Takes one to know one. Nah-nah.

Now, little to be known at the time, but the market completely crashed in the offseason and Dunn, despite our fears of getting between a 5Y/$75M and 6Y/$90M contract, ended up at two years and just $20 million. That short of contract effectively eliminated concerns about his decline phase. He was just 29 this year so a contract running his age 29 and 30 seasons seems like pure gold. It’s like getting the first two years of the Richie Sexson contract. That would be awesome. Well done, Nationals.

On the second point however… Keep in mind that this is not an isolated incident. Adam Dunn’s defense has been atrociously bad for years and the fact that it’s horrible is as unanimously agreed-upon as you’ll find a defensive statement in baseball. His UZRs the four years prior to 2009; -19, -15, -19, -28. That’s bad. But you know what they say, if you’re ugly, just find an uglier person to be your friend and you’ll look more attractive in comparison. So Adam Dunn went out and had 2009, a season in which he rotated through 1B (67 games), LF (62 games) and RF(22 games). Combined from the three, Adam Dunn tallied a -36.4 UZR.

-36.4.

Adam Dunn was the 20th best hitter in baseball this year according to StatCorner’s park-adjusted wOBA. FanGraphs equals pretty closely on his hitting value. He had a career year in batting average and nearly one in OBP and OPS as well. Because of his defense and position, he netted 1.1 WAR. Endy Chavez played 54 games in the outfield, had a sub-.700 OPS and managed 0.9 WAR.

-36.4 UZR. Unfathomable.

Repoz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:46 AM | 6 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsWashington

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   1. Chris Needham Posted: October 27, 2009 at 11:46 AM (#3367208)
Unfathomable is right.

I'm going to put my fingers in my ears, saying 'nah nah nah' over and over again.

Dunn was bad. But I refuse to believe that he was nearly 40 runs below average bad.
   2. Chris Needham Posted: October 27, 2009 at 11:49 AM (#3367210)
And just to add on...

Doesn't the fact that they're adding 3 partial seasons together scream "sample size" issue, especially given how he was regularly just "bad" before not "Hitler with a glove" as the numbers paint this season?
   3. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: October 27, 2009 at 11:50 AM (#3367211)
Numbers don't lie. Just move the Nats to the AL, put Dunn at DH and all your problems are solved.
   4. El Hijo del Ron Santo (Alan Keiper) Posted: October 27, 2009 at 11:52 AM (#3367212)
Plus/Minus rates Dunn at -27, with -18 coming at first base. Washington's defense was so universally bad that something had to be amiss defensively.
   5. zonk Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:02 PM (#3367217)
Numbers don't lie.


Defensive numbers do...

Not buying it.
   6. Chris Needham Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:02 PM (#3367218)
-27 I could believe. That's in line (approximately) with his career numbers. Although the -18 in half-a-season at first doesn't quite pass the smell test either.
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