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Sunday, March 21, 2010

Lopez will play 3B, Figgins 2B to start season

Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu has let both Jose Lopez and Chone Figgins know that he’s pleased with the progress they’ve made at their respective positions at that they will open the season at third and second base respectively…

There had been some plans to move the two back to their original positions on an infrequent basis starting this weekend, but that has apparently been scrapped since Lopez is at third today and Figgins at second.

The District Attorney Posted: March 21, 2010 at 06:51 PM | 20 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSeattle

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   1. Tripon Posted: March 21, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3483290)
Why switch them?
   2. Matt Welch Posted: March 21, 2010 at 09:45 PM (#3483310)
Put the better defender at the more important position?
   3. Tripon Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:02 PM (#3483321)
But they're both equally important according to positional adjustments.

Tom Tango has developed the most commonly accepted set of positional adjustments out there right now, based on historical data of how players perform when they move from one position to another. His scale is as follows:

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/position-adjustments/
   4. Rough Carrigan Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3483326)
Checking at baseballreference.com I find that Figgins has played all or part of 113 games at second in his career. But not more than a handful of games a year since 2005. I know Figgins is a terrific third baseman but was he a terrific second baseman? I thought his fielding was pretty erratic earlier in his career, when he was playing second more often.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:16 PM (#3483331)
I'll post the same thing I did at USSMariner:

If the defensive stats are to be believed (e.g. UZR has Figgins as a +15 R/150 over the last 2 years, and Lopez as basically average at 2B) I seriously doubt this will improve the Mariners defense.

The odds of 2 guys becoming on average +7.5 defenders at positions they basically haven’t played in MLB, or haven’t played in 5 years, would seem to be vanishingly small.

Maybe this makes the team better in 2011, maybe, but I doubt it helps for 2010.
   6. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3483332)
It seems to me that speed would be more of a component at 2nd base than 3rd base (going after pop flies, cut off plays, that sort of thing) so Figgins might be more useful at 2nd than Lopez.
   7. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:20 PM (#3483333)
That's what I was going to say. Just because they adjust the same doesn't mean the same players will play them well. Third is about reaction time, second about range. The Mariners evidently believe that they'll get more range out of Figgins than Lopez.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:26 PM (#3483340)
That's what I was going to say. Just because they adjust the same doesn't mean the same players will play them well. Third is about reaction time, second about range. The Mariners evidently believe that they'll get more range out of Figgins than Lopez.

Yes, but Figgins was never a good 2B. He put up a -8.5/150 UZR (only 86 GS, so SSS) when he was 5+ years younger. And, Figgins has become a fantastic 3B (+8 UZR/150 career, +15 the last 2 years).

It seems very, very stupid to me to move an elite defender off his position at age 32, especially to a position where players don't tend to do well in their 30's.
   9. ...even Chuck Norris was afraid of Jim Rice Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:34 PM (#3483345)
If you believe that Jose Lopez is a solid defender at 2nd base, then this move doesn't make a lot of sense. My guess is that the team's proprietary metrics show that Lopez is a below average defender, who's likely to get worse given his size (6', 205) and athleticism (pretty average). There's also the fact that Lopez isn't really a very good hitter and is unlikely to be with the team as long as Figgins will. So, if you are going to have to move Chone up the defensive spectrum eventually, best to do it now.

Again, that's the only logic I can see. Chone is a long-term piece; Lopez is not. Move Chone to the most difficult position he is capable of playing (highest and best use), deal with 3rd base later.
   10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: March 21, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3483354)
Can Ackley play 3B?
   11. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: March 21, 2010 at 11:33 PM (#3483375)
The Mariners have been trying to move Lopez off 2B for, seemingly, the last three years. Apparently JZ doesn't believe UZR when it comes to J-Lo.
   12. tl; dr (Voxter) Posted: March 21, 2010 at 11:38 PM (#3483376)
Can Ackley play 3B?


I dunno, can he fly?
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 22, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3483390)
Can Ackley play 3B?

That adds to the confusion; I thought they were working out Ackley at 2B.

Ackley had TJ surgery, which forced him from CF to 1B in college. I doubt he has the arm for 3B, given that.
   14. Matt Welch Posted: March 22, 2010 at 01:56 AM (#3483436)
If you give Figgins a position & tell him he'll stay there, he usually plays it pretty well. I think he could/should have become a decent CFer....
   15. David Cameron Posted: March 22, 2010 at 02:41 AM (#3483454)
Ackley is still being groomed for second base. When he's ready, Figgins will go back to third. That likely will happen next spring, but there's a chance Ackley could force his way onto the team in the second half of the year.

I'm not a huge fan of this move. To me, the marginal gain in range at second is mostly offset by the loss of experience on things like turning the double play, charging bunts, etc... I have a feeling the M's won't really see a net gain from this at all. This appears to be one of those "it looks right" decisions, since Figgins looks like a 2B and Lopez looks like a 3B.
   16. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: March 22, 2010 at 03:21 AM (#3483475)
I don't see the gain either. High risk for low reward, at best. It's really the first inexplicable move the new regime in Seattle has made.
   17. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: March 22, 2010 at 01:11 PM (#3483640)
This seems like a bad idea. It's not going to kill the Mariners or anything, but what's the point? I could kinda, sorta see moving Figgins to CF or even SS if the Mariners were desperate, but moving an elite defender from 3b to 2b so that a mediocre defender can do the reverse seems silly.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 22, 2010 at 01:16 PM (#3483646)
To me, the marginal gain in range at second is mostly offset by the loss of experience on things like turning the double play, charging bunts, etc...

Agree. It seems like they're totally ignoring the experience/comfort factor of having played a position regularly at the MLB level.

Ackley is still being groomed for second base. When he's ready, Figgins will go back to third. That likely will happen next spring, but there's a chance Ackley could force his way onto the team in the second half of the year.

This makes it really inexplicable. If you were going to put up with the transition pains b/c you expected to reap the benefits for 3 years, well that's one thing. But to take the adjustment costs to get the supposed benefits for <1 season makes very little sense to me.
   19. John M. Perkins Posted: March 22, 2010 at 01:20 PM (#3483649)
This a variation of ARod and Jeter at SS.
ARod > Jeter at SS does not mean ARod should have been the SS, because
ARod >> Jeter at 3B.
[This ignores Jeter > Williams at CF.]
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 22, 2010 at 01:31 PM (#3483655)
This a variation of ARod and Jeter at SS.

It's actually worse. It's like doing the ARod/Jeter swap now; after ARod hadn't played SS for 5 years. Assuming ARod hadn't had the injury that sapped his defense.
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