This year, that has changed, most of the time, and especially in the past two months.

First Griffin and now this. A.J. Burnett's having a lousy season, possibly the worst of his career and the two months this season when the most balls were put in play, April and August, are the months with ERAs of 6.07 and 6.11.

Its quite remarkable he's squeezed 15 wins out of that crappy Jays offense, Jack Morris would be proud. Given Toronto's wealth of options for starting pitching (Janssen should be in the rotation in 2009 too), I would probably encourage him to opt out of his contract. Maybe J.P. will make a comment about his mother or something to piss him off. Does anyone know if Toronto would get the two picks if he left?

You think they'd offer him arb? I don't.

Well, to answer the question, yes, Toronto would get two picks if Burnett opted out and declined arbitration. I'm not sure why Vlad thinks they wouldn't offer, since I'd be shocked if he didn't get a contract offer or three that exceed his worth. He's got fifteen wins, baby!

FWIW, he's averaged 6.1 IP with an ERA of 3.24 in those 15 wins. He's really gotten torched in his losses and no-decisions. That inconsistency probably makes him more valuable than a consistently mediocre starter would be. OTOH, his last three starts have been six inning, four run wins, which isn't all that impressive by any measure except being the winning pitcher.

The Blue Jays have talked about offering Burnett more money for the next two years of his deal to get him to stay. So yes, they would certainly offer him arbitration.

"I'm not sure why Vlad thinks they wouldn't offer"

If you operate under the premise that they would prefer to have him leave, they'd rather not get stuck paying him a huge-ass arb award. And there was almost no interest in him as a deadline acquisition, supposedly because teams didn't want to have to count on him for more than one season.

Under those circumstances, I could see him pulling a Maddux and trying to shoot the moon on a one-year arb deal, re-entering the market next season. Which is something that JP would want to avoid (if JP really wants to get rid of him).

FWIW, he's averaged 6.1 IP with an ERA of 3.24 in those 15 wins.

That doesn't seem all that special, though. MLB ERA based on game outcome for pitchers is 2.13 in a win, 8.23 for a loss, 3.95 for a no-decision. BR doesn't have a break down for starters and relievers. However, looking at starters with 10 wins and an ERA+ below 100 (winERA/lossERA):

Pettitte: 1.42/8.23
Hernandez: 2.84/11.09
Perkins: 2.97/7.31
Garland: 3.33/7.89
Weaver: 2.77/7.25
Padilla: 2.79/11.39
Kendrick: 3.09/9.10
Oswalt: 2.62/6.42
Arroyo: 2.66/11.19

It actually turns out that Burnett is actually a good deal more consistent!

If you operate under the premise that they would prefer to have him leave,

Why would you operate under that premise?

"Why would you operate under that premise?"

For the last several months, it seems like JP has been doing the media groundwork necessary to run him out of town, just like he did with Glaus and Thomas and such. From what I can tell, JP tends to fall out of love with anyone he signs to a long-term deal well before the contract's over.

He may very well want to keep Burnett, but when he criticizes him in the press and then shops him aggressively at the deadline, he's acting like a guy who's looking for an out.

Maybe J.P. will make a comment about his mother or something to piss him off.

tug at his nipple rings

I haven't heard many comments from JP trying to run AJ out of town. If anything, it seems like he's being nicer this year than last year.

Pettitte: 1.42/8.23
Hernandez: 2.84/11.09
Perkins: 2.97/7.31
Garland: 3.33/7.89
Weaver: 2.77/7.25
Padilla: 2.79/11.39
Kendrick: 3.09/9.10
Oswalt: 2.62/6.42
Arroyo: 2.66/11.19

It actually turns out that Burnett is actually a good deal more consistent!

Here is my favorite.

Johan Santana: 2.50 ERA in wins, 3.35 in losses.

Well, maybe my favorite was Pedro from 2000, who had a .85 ERA in wins, and 2.44 in losses.

So what's the over/under on Burnett's contract, and where does he land?

I'm guessing 4/$60 and he lands in Detroit.

No!

Given Toronto's wealth of options for starting pitching (Janssen should be in the rotation in 2009 too), I would probably encourage him to opt out of his contract.

The team's depth in starting pitching isn't quite what it used to be. Janssen is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum and is no guarantee to be back at full strength next year. McGowan's long-term prognosis also unclear due to his rotator cuff issues. If Burnett leaves, it wouldn't surprise me if the Blue Jays tried to acquire another starting pitcher.

I'm guessing 4/$60 and he lands in Detroit.

Not to rain on your parade, but it's tough to predict where he'll end up because something like, what, 29 other teams would be interested in him, depending on the money. Not that he's a top 10 pitcher, or anything, but he's better than most team's #2 or #3. I could see all of the 10 or 15 biggest markets at least kicking the tires on him.

Not to rain on your parade, but it's tough to predict where he'll end up

Exactly... that's what makes it fun/pointless.

Exactly... that's what makes it fun/pointless.

Fair enough. How about Texas, then? They're supposedly ready to spend money on pitching, and I'm assuming CC won't sign there. So Burnett will probably be Plan C for a handful of teams.

Exactly... that's what makes it fun/pointless.

5/$72m with the fith year being a $16m mutual option $3m buyout.

For the last several months, it seems like JP has been doing the media groundwork necessary to run him out of town, just like he did with Glaus...

Wait, what? The story I heard was that Troy quietly asked JP to trade him, and JP obliged. I certainly don't remember any anti-Glaus stories in Toronto, although I don't read Rich Griffin so I might've missed it.

For the last several months, it seems like JP has been doing the media groundwork necessary to run him out of town, just like he did with Glaus...

Wait, what? The story I heard was that Troy quietly asked JP to trade him, and JP obliged. I certainly don't remember any anti-Glaus stories in Toronto, although I don't read Rich Griffin so I might've missed it.

Exactly. J.P. has a history of bashing players he has no intention of moving (i.e. Burnett last year)...but he generally doesn't go after guys right before or after moving them. In fact, J.P. has been praising Burnett all year (no doubt to be in a better position come the trade deadline).

From what I can tell, JP tends to fall out of love with anyone he signs to a long-term deal well before the contract's over.

In J.P.'s defence, his long-term deals tend to be terrible. Who can blame him for cursing Wells, Rios, Thomas, Burnett, Hinske or Koskie? I know the Toronto fans sure hate these deals.

That said, he really is a terrible GM.

In J.P.'s defence, his long-term deals tend to be terrible. Who can blame him for cursing Wells, Rios, Thomas, Burnett, Hinske or Koskie? I know the Toronto fans sure hate these deals.

The Rios deal isn't a mistake(though it a couple years it may be), and the only mistake with Thomas was releasing him. Burnett is a mediocre deal. Hinske and Koskie flamed out spectacularly. And remember kids, only 6 more years of Vernon Wells.