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Sunday, December 06, 2009

Marchman: Murphy and Francoeur, pillars of success

“Many will pass through and knowledge will be the greater”

image

...or so we thought.

There’s no one so optimistic as a Mets fan presented with a vaguely young player who’s given some sign that he might possibly be capable of playing well, so after seeing ZiPS projections for the 2010 Mets I thought it might be good to present three batting lines in the interest of perspective. The top two are projected lines for Jeff Francoeur and Daniel Murphy and the bottom is what the average National League team got from its shortstops in 2009. (The runs and runs batted in obviously don’t count for much but they’re pretty funny.

Let me gently suggest two things: Even David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes can’t make up for this sort of thing, and even the Mets should be able to find a first baseman and right fielder who can hit better than the average shortstop.

Repoz Posted: December 06, 2009 at 12:02 AM | 44 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjectionsZIPSNY Mets

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   1. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:16 AM (#3404725)
Even David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes can’t make up for this sort of thing, and even the Mets should be able to find a first baseman and right fielder who can hit better than the average shortstop.

I really hope that Marchman doesn't become a bitter sportswriter. It's good to be objective, it's good to be critical of management who deserve it, but when a guy starts giving shots like this, I worry that he is on his way to becoming CHB.
   2. Raskolnikov  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:24 AM (#3404728)
At least Murphy is cheap and pretty good defensively. He would make a useful jack-of-all trades utility guy and backup 1Bman. He can still contribute.

I liked what I saw of Francoeur last year. I wouldn't mind giving him another year as long as the Mets are willing to pull the plug if he regresses.
   3. Lassus  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:25 AM (#3404729)
Geez, Murphy had a sucky year? Who knew?

The thing about Frenchie's numbers are that they were AWFUL with the Braves, just truly truly awful, which pulls down the figure Marchman provides considerably. He might be emo enough to replicate his Mets numbers all year, but WTF knows?
   4. Voxter has been stripped of his spark.  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:28 AM (#3404731)
I wish the Mets were good. They're on the radio a lot around here.
   5. The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:41 AM (#3404738)
I had no idea that you could substitute other interrogative pronouns in WTF? Like, "WTF are you going?" "WTF knows?" And, "WTF are you asking me?" Or, "WTF are we going?" Brilliant.
   6. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:56 AM (#3404746)
He would make a useful jack-of-all trades utility guy and backup 1Bman.

Except that he really can't play anything but first base.
   7. The District Attorney  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3404752)
WTF art thou Romeo?
   8. billyshears  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:31 AM (#3404761)
I still think that Murphy can be useful, even as a 1b. He was only 24 last year and improved in the second half. He doesn't strike out much. His power, which was a primary knock on him before the season, was decent. I'm hopeful that with some experience, he can make the necessary adjustments to improve his BA and that he can develop additional power with age.
   9. Ignatius J. Reilly  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:41 AM (#3404762)
Around May 15 or so, I'll pop in to a Mets chatter and give y'all my list of ways to deal with Francoeur-related stress without breaking things or destroying relationships.
   10. Nolan Giesbrecht  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:42 AM (#3404764)
WTF art thou Romeo?


Primey
   11. Dale Sams  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:48 AM (#3404766)
The Mets should trade Samson to the Yankees. He'd be useless there.
   12. Walt Davis  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3404767)
ha-ha.

Except that 5 teams, non-Mets teams, got an OPS below Murphy's projected 734. Four teams did worse than Francoeur's projected 735 and another 4 were under 760 (the Mets were one of those). Seven teams had LFs worse than that and another 5 below 760.

Yes, you'd think the Mets could afford better solutions but the notion that having a 1B/RF who hits this poorly is beyond the pale of reason isn't true. The ones with lousy RF included San Fran, Atlanta and St. Louis who were competitive. The crappy 1B teams included San Fran and Texas. The crappy LF teams only included Atlanta, Cubs and Seattle.

Obviously being crappy at 2 of the 3 is gonna cramp your style (though having Lincecum helps) and the Mets clearly are at risk of being crappy at all three.

Anyway, part of this is that the average SS hits pretty good these days (although only 10 did better than the Murphy/Francoeur projections), part is injuries, etc. causing bench players to get a lot more player than lots of folks realize, and part is that average players are harder to find than a lot of folks realize.
   13. PreservedFish  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:51 AM (#3404769)
Murphy is bad, but he isn't so bad that no team in baseball has any business allowing him on the roster.

For me the question is not about Murphy, it's about the Mets. If they have real playoff aspirations, then Murphy at first is ridiculous. But if they are in a transition or "retooling" year, he deserves some more ABs. He was a very good hitter in the minors and if you are generous with his BABIP his 2009 line doesn't look quite so ugly: it resembles his career numbers which are disappointing but really OK.
   14. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:51 AM (#3404770)
Around May 15 or so, I'll pop in to a Mets chatter and give y'all my list of ways to deal with Francoeur-related stress without breaking things or destroying relationships.

Cool. We'll do the same when Wagner's inevitable injuries leaves the bullpen in a shambles during the stretch run.
   15. PreservedFish  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 02:54 AM (#3404772)
Russlan, don't try to compare Francoeur with Wagner. Wagner is good at sports.
   16. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 03:09 AM (#3404774)
Russlan, don't try to compare Francoeur with Wagner. Wagner is good at sports.

First, I didn't hate on Wagner's ability, I hated on his durability. More importantly, how ya gonna do another Met BTFer like that? Ya gotta have my back when I am in a snarkfest with a Brave BTFer, homey.
   17. The District Attorney  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 03:11 AM (#3404775)
don't try to compare Francoeur with Wagner. Wagner is good at sports.
Francoeur was good at football...
   18. Howie Menckel  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 03:49 AM (#3404781)
To be fair, Wagner was good at baseball...
   19. AJM  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 08:34 AM (#3404796)
I wish Francoeur would get lost. Literally. Like not be able to find NY.
   20. billyshears  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:14 AM (#3404800)
Francoeur has been good for the Mets his entire career. I don't know why people expect that to change.
   21. Organizational Projectability (1k5v3L)  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:16 AM (#3404802)
What's the opening over/under line on Murphy's OPS next year? 0.875?
   22. Leroy Kincaid  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:28 AM (#3404807)
What's the opening over/under line on Murphy's OPS next year? 0.875?


You forgot the "+".
   23. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 10:53 AM (#3404838)
I had no idea that you could substitute other interrogative pronouns in WTF? Like, "WTF are you going?" "WTF knows?" And, "WTF are you asking me?" Or, "WTF are we going?" Brilliant.

I would advise against starting your cover letter with "To WTF It May Concern".
   24. Lassus  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 10:59 AM (#3404840)
Frenchie is primed to be hated, but if Mets fans are going to hate on him while he puts up the same numbers this coming season as he did for us last season, they're turning into Phillies' fans. (The bad ones)
   25. BringBackTimTeufel  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 11:55 AM (#3404865)
I wish Francoeur would get lost. Literally. Like not be able to find NY.


Luckily, Delta will pick him up, because those swell guys sure know how to take care of a boy like Jeff on his way to the big city!
   26. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 12:00 PM (#3404869)
they're turning into Phillies' fans. (The bad ones)
In the World According to Lassus, are there any other kinds? :)
Francoeur is certainly one of the early season interest story. Looking at his line on BRef, he's very schizo-Babippity, isn't he? When he's done OK to well, his BABIP is .336 or .337; when not, between .274 and .284.
   27. Bob Dernier Espoir  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 12:01 PM (#3404870)
I'm going to title my next academic essay "WTF Literary Studies in English?"
   28. snapper  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:12 PM (#3404894)
Looking at his line on BRef, he's very schizo-Babippity, isn't he? When he's done OK to well, his BABIP is .336 or .337; when not, between .274 and .284.

Yes, he's extremely streaky, so he'll look decent/horrendous for several months. But, I think we have enough sample to conclude his "true-talent" is a merely crappy 95 OPS+ with his career avg. .300 BABIP.

He'll have to make some major adjustment to his approach to do much better than that. He doesn't have the power or speed to sustain .330-340 BABIP, and his 5% BB-rate and 20% K-rate make it impossible to sustain a decent OBP w/o a high BA.
   29. Lassus  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3404912)
In the World According to Lassus, are there any other kinds? :)

Sure. Um. Well... Crispix?

That's about it.
   30. Tom Cervo, backup catcher  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 03:40 PM (#3404991)
Francoeur has been good for the Mets his entire career. I don't know why people expect that to change.


Probably because it doesn't make sense to ignore the 2600 bad PA in favor of the 300 where he hit well.
   31. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 03:48 PM (#3404996)
Probably because it doesn't make sense to ignore the 2600 bad PA in favor of the 300 where he hit well.

Your sarcasm detector is on the fritz.
   32. CW comes off assembly line for complete numbskulls  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 04:16 PM (#3404999)
Your sarcasm detector is on the fritz.


The thing is - there ARE some fans who really do think that way. It's hard to tell the jokes apart from the serious ones.
   33. not a STEAGLES in any real sense of the word  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3405002)

The thing is - there ARE some fans who really do think that way. It's hard to tell the jokes apart from the serious ones.
isn't there a razor named after this phenomena?
   34. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott)  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 08:14 PM (#3405102)
Ockham Razor Shines?
   35. Elvis  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:27 PM (#3405148)
I liked what I saw of Francoeur last year. I wouldn't mind giving him another year as long as the Mets are willing to pull the plug if he regresses.



Francoeur as a Met:
.311/.338/.498 for an .836 OPS in 308 PA and a .343 BABIP

Murphy in his final 266 PA
.294/.321/.504 for an .825 OPS with a .333 BABIP

Given that Francoeur will cost somewhere around 8-10 times as much as Murphy and also has 2000+ lousy ABs in the majors compared to 162 lousy ABs for Murphy, I don't understand why people are willing to give him another chance (without any caveats about a rebuilding year) and not extend the same courtesy to Murphy.
   36. Elvis  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:31 PM (#3405153)
Check that, Murphy's BABIP was .322
   37. HowardMegdal  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 09:46 PM (#3405161)
Part of it has to be that you are asking Murphy to play 1B, Francoeur RF.

Frankly, though, I'm not crazy about either of them as 2010 regulars. Still think a year for Murphy playing 2B at Triple-A is the way to go, since his bat doesn't profile well at 1B and he sure isn't a LF.
   38. snapper  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 10:27 PM (#3405183)
Still think a year for Murphy playing 2B at Triple-A is the way to go, since his bat doesn't profile well at 1B and he sure isn't a LF.

That makes a tremendous amount of sense.
   39. bobm  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 10:50 PM (#3405200)
So, with Murphy in the minors, do you resign Delgado, play Evans, make a trade or sign a FA to play 1B?
   40. Russlan thinks Jose Reyes pops up too much  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 10:59 PM (#3405206)
There's been some talk that the Mets are interested in Willingham.

I don't think you can sign Delgado without trading Castillo and getting a better defensive second baseman.
   41. snapper  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 11:02 PM (#3405209)
So, with Murphy in the minors, do you resign Delgado, play Evans, make a trade or sign a FA to play 1B?

I'd go after Branyan or Nick Johnson. But even a cheap signing like Eric Hinske would likely match Murphy's production.
   42. Tripon  Posted: December 06, 2009 at 11:47 PM (#3405264)
Murphy being a 2nd baseman is a dream.
   43. snapper  Posted: December 07, 2009 at 12:03 AM (#3405277)
Murphy being a 2nd baseman is a dream.

Probably, but why not give it a month or two?
   44. PreservedFish  Posted: December 07, 2009 at 12:10 AM (#3405284)
Given that Francoeur will cost somewhere around 8-10 times as much as Murphy and also has 2000+ lousy ABs in the majors compared to 162 lousy ABs for Murphy, I don't understand why people are willing to give him another chance (without any caveats about a rebuilding year) and not extend the same courtesy to Murphy.


I think that Francoeur's opening day start is guaranteed. To the point that we have all just realized that it is time to accept it as fact and hope for the best. This is scary. It impels the imagination to dwell on other topics.

Murphy's immediate future is still up in the air, so he will inspire more discussion.
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