There are a lot of ways to prove this with complicated math, but there really isn’t any need. Chamberlain has a career ERA of 3.12 as a starter, and 1.53 as a reliever.

I'm indifferent to whether Joba starts or relieves, but I don't think the statistical case is as clear cut as this article claims. Joba's peripherals as a reliever are a lot closer to justifying his ERA than his peripherals as a starter. His career FIP as a starter is 3.76, and this year, where he's "showing every sign of developing into a wonderful starter", his FIP is 4.81. His career FIP as a reliever is 2.03.

In 180 innings as a starter, Chamberlain would be worth about 50 runs above replacement. In 80 innings as a reliever, he’d be worth about 35. Fifty is more than 35.

Plus his career FIP numbers into this equation, and he's worth 36 RARP as a starter and 29 RARP as a reliever. Plug his 2009 FIP in, and he's worth 15 RARP as a starter. This debate isn't over because it shouldn't be.

You can't just say his "career FIP as a reliever is 2.03" and assert that's his true talent level. He had a ridiculous run, but that's very unlikely to be sustainable.

You're basically projecting him to be better than Mariano Rivera, which is an absolutley absurd projection for anyone at anytime.

The debate is over, unless he can't physically handle starting. If he has a series of physical breakdowns, moving to the pen makes sense. Otherwise, it's pretty clear the Yankees will keep him as a SP.

This debate isn't over because it shouldn't be.

The debate is over among the people who really matter. Unless he gets injured or has a major collapse, he's never going back to the bullpen again.

If Chamberlain is hurt, or if the Yankees obtain access to a time machine and learn that he really is much better than Mariano Rivera, they should by all means listen to the outraged minority and consign to the bullpen a 23-year-old with every chance at being the best pitcher they've developed since Whitey Ford

Ok, but if we're speculating, couldn't Joba be the best pitcher developed since Walter Johnson?

I say that because the Yanks would be darn happy if Joba turned out as good as Guidry or Pettitte.

Also

Paychecks don't lie.

I thought hips didn't lie.

Or perhaps the point is that hips don't lie when they have some sort of involvement with paychecks.

but I don't think the statistical case is as clear cut as this article claims. Joba's peripherals as a reliever are a lot closer to justifying his ERA than his peripherals as a starter.

He's a lot more like to put up a 3.12 ERA in 180 ip as a starter than he is to put up a 1.53 ERA as a reliever in any given season.
Joba is not the only guy out there who has strung up a 1.53 ERA in a 59 ip stretch.

edit, or what #2 said

The debate is over, unless he can't physically handle starting.

It's not a binary thing, though. The issue is better articulated, I think, in terms of whether the degree to which Joba may be a less effective pitcher as a starter, and the degree to which Joba may be less likely to physically withstand a starter's workload, make him a better bet to provide long-term and short-term value pitching as a reliever. I definitely don't know the answer to that question.

The analysis of Marchman and similar arguments are important - they set the baseline, the generalized claims we can all agree to before proceeding to consider the particular issues of one particular pitcher. I don't like it when people refuse to listen to simple arguments like Marchman's which provide lots of useful information for this discussion, but I also don't like it when people incorrectly claim that generalized knowledge about pitchers and projections ends the debate about any particular player.

The debate is not over, nor will it ever be over, as long as editors and writers decide that they have to fill-up space/don't have a better topic to write about than Joba bullpen or rotation.

Some of this is just contrived; some, like the insane ranting of New York City radio host Mike Francesca, is just comical. A lot of it, though, is sincere

Insane ranting begets contrived begets sincere.

Two things right now are combining to prolong this "debate": The impatience of the New York media, and the on/off performances of Wang, Hughes, and Pettitte, which to an extent have made the last four positions in the rotation into a game of musical chairs.

All things being equal, I'd stick Wang in the bullpen and make him work his way up, and give Hughes the work he's going to need to develop his confidence. I say that because IMO Hughes's upside is quite a bit greater than Wang's---at his best he dominates hitters in a way that Wang almost never does. If Pettitte gets hurt, then perhaps let Wang fill in. But Wang's got to get that command back before risking him in any more starts---that was painful to watch yesterday, and it happened with almost no notice.

But Chamberlain should be in the rotation as long as he's not wearing himself out. Putting him back in the bullpen makes no sense at all.

Unless he gets injured or has a major collapse, he's never going back to the bullpen again.

Totally wrong, IMO. If Rivera gets hurt, Joba will be the closer immediately.

You can't just say his "career FIP as a reliever is 2.03" and assert that's his true talent level. He had a ridiculous run, but that's very unlikely to be sustainable.

You're basically projecting him to be better than Mariano Rivera, which is an absolutley absurd projection for anyone at anytime.

I'm not asserting that's his talent level, I'm just mimicing the exact same argument as the author with a slightly more predictive metric.

Personally, I don't think Joba is a 2.00 ERA reliever, and I have doubts that he's a sub-4.00 ERA talent as a starter.

I absolutely think the Yankees should continue to try him as a starter because his value will be higher there IF he succeeds, but I think a lot of people are underestimating his chances of failing as a starter while others are declaring that he's succeeded as a starter when the jury is definitely still out.

Two things right now are combining to prolong this "debate": The impatience of the New York media, and the on/off performances of Wang, Hughes, and Pettitte, which to an extent have made the last four positions in the rotation into a game of musical chairs.

I think it has more to do with the press (and fans) being used to the pattern from the Torre years - the front office had to spend money to cover up Torre's biggest weakness (bullpen managment) and bring in guys he could "trust" (Karsay, Quantrill, Gordon, Farnsworth). Sometime in 2006-07 they realized that this was a waste of time and money, considering Torre just ground those guys down, and switched to a more typical bullpen strategy - find some re-treads and AAA types, throw them against the wall and see if they stick. Switching Joba to the bullpen in 2007 was both a desperate measure to make the playoffs and the last concession to Torre. Now everyone still thinks they need to have a guarunteed setup guy, whereas the Yankees made the smart move and just changed managers.

Totally wrong, IMO. If Rivera gets hurt, Joba will be the closer immediately.

Not clear at all. It would depend on how long Rivera was out for, where the Yankees were in the standings, how the other starters and relievers were doing etc.

If Wang or Hughes pitch themselves out of the rotation, and Bruney or Marte is back throwing well, I doubt they'd move Joba.

Now everyone still thinks they need to have a guarunteed setup guy, whereas the Yankees made the smart move and just changed managers.

Yes, people are morons that way.

Somehow, they think it's worse the lose a game b/c you give up two runs in the 8th or 9th than because your starter went 3 IP and gave up 5.

Give me a solid rotation and a rag-tag bullpen anyday over a weak rotation and 3 or 4 shutdown relivers. It's so obvious when you look at the salaries of starters vs. relievers and the fact that no one will trade a #1, 2 or 3 type starter for a closer, even a really good one.

Hell, Oliver Perez got basically the same contract as KRod.

Since there's no Dugout today, a Yankees-related thread seems the appropriate place for this.

Run Fairy Released

"Rojos de Aguila de Veracruz dio de alta y active en el roster al dominicano Jailen Peguero, ocupando el lugar de dominicano Felix Heredia quien fue dado de baja, asimismo active en el roster a Juan Jesus Martez, desactivando a Francisco Villegas"

The Veracruz Rojos de Aguila activated the Dominican Jailen Peguero, taking the place of Felix Heredia who was killed. Also activated was Juan Jesus Martez, Francisco Villegas was put on the disabled list.

Or maybe he really was killed. I couldn't find a story in any of the Veracruz newspapers. The link for the Imagen de Veracruz sent me to a small town newspaper in Connecticut, which was as amusing to me as it was useless.

The Run Fairy is still the greatest nickname in Primer history.

Not clear at all. It would depend on how long Rivera was out for, where the Yankees were in the standings, how the other starters and relievers were doing etc.

I just can't see the Yankees tolerating not having a great closer and living with Bruney closing for a month.

"dado de baja"

I guess means sent down, not killed - maybe it literally translates as "put down"... my spanish is a little iffy?

Google translate gives it as "derecognised"

Hmmm... slightly off topic:

Jonathan Sanchez - convert back to reliever? He cannot seem to get out of the 5th as a starter, although he has <joemorgan>consistantly electric stuff </joemorgan>

I just can't see the Yankees tolerating not having a great closer and living with Bruney closing for a month.

I can. Girardi/Cashman/Hal are much more patient and balanced than you give them credit.

With the ascendance of Hal and the eclipse of George, the Yankees no longer have to manage for this week. I believe Cashman and Hal are really focused on building a new dynasty, and the know that starts with CC, Joba, and Hughes at the top of the rotation.

I just can't see the Yankees tolerating not having a great closer and living with Bruney closing for a month.

During Rivera's past injury troubles they've used Mike Stanton and Steve Karsay. They could live with Bruney.

The Run Fairy is still the greatest nickname in Primer history.

Agree wholeheartedly. Captain Tightpants a distant second. What is it about bad Yankees relievers?

Captain Tightpants a distant second. What is it about bad Yankees relievers?

I think Cap'n Tightpants was a Cubs fanboy invention. IIRC the Yankees fans here mostly called him "The Professor" (and signaled his entrance to games with "good news, everyone!" in the chats)

Not that I really care much about this debate, but also missing from Marchman's math (at least in the quoted bit) is leverage. Joba the (excellent) starter might save 50 runs but a good chunk of those 50 runs saved won't really matter. Joba the (otherworldly) reliever may save only 35 but most of them will matter quite a bit. I suspect Joba the starter still comes out ahead but if his true talent relief ERA was in the 1.5-2 range, he'd probably need to be a top 15-20 starter to be worth substantially more as a starter.

The debate is more about where his true talents lie. Of course there's no way that he's a true 1.5-2 reliever. The question becomes whether there are any good reasons to think he would get a bigger (or smaller) boost from moving to the pen than other pitchers. There's also the question of the injury and whether he's still the same pitcher he was when he came up.

The Run Fairy is still the greatest nickname in Primer history.

Agree wholeheartedly. Captain Tightpants a distant second.

I'm a "Lord Haw-Haw" man.

Not that I really care much about this debate, but also missing from Marchman's math (at least in the quoted bit) is leverage. Joba the (excellent) starter might save 50 runs but a good chunk of those 50 runs saved won't really matter. Joba the (otherworldly) reliever may save only 35 but most of them will matter quite a bit. I suspect Joba the starter still comes out ahead but if his true talent relief ERA was in the 1.5-2 range, he'd probably need to be a top 15-20 starter to be worth substantially more as a starter.

You have to consider the effect of chaining also, which brings the number back down from RARP*leverage.

captain tightpants isnt even his best nick name for him, ############ wins hands down

Besides leverage, also missing is value in the postseason - which matters more for the highest budget team in MLB than for anybody else.

If he's an elite starter, obviously he's more valuable there. What if his true talent level is that of a somewhat above average starter, while being a top 5 closer? Top relievers are more valuable in the playoffs, thanks to days off, than they are in the regular season. They can pitch a higher percentage of innings. To a team like the Yankees, it may make sense to give up a little bit of regular season value (that can be replaced by outspending other teams for a starting pitcher) to put them in a better position to win an extra World Series.

I'm not saying that Joba definitely would be enough better as a reliever to have it make sense to put him back there - just that the case isn't as simple as Marchman would have it.

If the Yankees get to the postseason and Pettitte, Burnett and Wang are all healthy and pitching reasonably well, and Joba has passed his magical 150 innings limit ... what are they going to do with him?

If the Yankees get to the postseason and Pettitte, Burnett and Wang are all healthy and pitching reasonably well, and Joba has passed his magical 150 innings limit ... what are they going to do with him?

If CC, Burnett, Wang and Pettitte are all pitching well--better than Joba--and he's up to 150 innings, they'll stick him in the bullpen for the playoffs.