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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Mariotti...still not fonda Wood.
But with the Kid K days in the distant past and Marmol ready and waiting as the possible next Frankie Rodriguez, the Wood project might be characterized as high-risk, questionable-reward. After 100 years of waiting, Cubdom doesn’t have patience to wait on another fairy tale, having been fed so many through the years. You saw the Red Sox unearth a young closer in Jonathan Papelbon, debate about whether to make him a starter, then return him to the role and watch him clamp down another World Series title last autumn. The lesson for Hendry and Piniella: When you have a kid pitcher with a healthy blowtorch, use him. Don’t take needless risks in a potential championship season, just because you’ve fallen in love with the Kerry Wood script. What possibly suggests the movie will have a happy ending, anyway?
...Yet the last time we saw Kerry Wood with a pennant in doubt, let’s just say it wasn’t pretty. Karma, among other reasons, is why you don’t dare do this.
Be ready, Carlos Marmol. Be ready.
Repoz
Posted: March 18, 2008 at 10:26 AM | 24 comment(s)
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Making roster decisions based on perceptions of karma isn't exactly the way to break a championship drought.
In any case, Wood as closer isn't really a bad idea; he seems to be a solid reliever, and should be better than Dempster. And it will probably result in Marmol pitching more high leverage innings anyway.
On what planet does a typical setup guy pitch higher leverage than a typical closer.... not earth.
My guess: whatever planet Marmol was on in the last two months of 2007.
Good thing I said more high leverage innings and not higher leverage innings then, huh?
As a setup guy, Marmol figures to have more 4+ out stints, and more appearances in tie games, extra innings, etc. than a pitcher shoehorned into a typical "closer's role." I guarantee you that if Wood stays closer all year, he'll end up with fewer innings than Marmol will get as a setup guy. And the vast majority of the innings that either will pitch easily qualify as high leverage.
The average leverage for a closer is normally higher than the average leverage for a typical setup guy, true. But the range of leverage can be much difference. Closers are often used in relatively low-leverage situations to finish out a game in a nn-save situation when the team is leading.
-- MWE
I think he means MORE (pause) "high leverage innings", emphasis on more.
So, if they're going to use the closer as a 9th inning only guy, he pitches 60-70 innings, many with a 2-3 run lead and no one on. So, maybe 40 of those IP are "high-leverage".
If Marmol is used for 80-85 IP, and brought in in the 6-8th innings w/men on, 60-70 of his IP could be "high-leverage".
Not to say that there isn't a case to be made for making Marmol the 9th inning guy, but Mariotti's the last guy I want to see offer a defense.
When I hear "Frankie Rodriguez" I still think of the non-K-Rod one, so I did a double-take here.
also, if this wasnt mariotti, people would be following over each other to agree that Marmol should be the closer.
so anytime a set-up guy is better than the closer, his innings are automatically higher leverage?
depends if it costs them any wins this year
Right; this entire issue -- however uninteresting it may be -- should be moot by about April 20th.
Wood has averaged 35 innings over the last three years, and 22 over the last two.
obviously not....and I did no research whatsoever to support the following, but I would be very suprised if my gut reaction in those specific cases wasn't accurate and those guys didn't pitch more in higher leverage situations....just sheer innings totals alone would probably give them the edge in terms of sheer value - i believe rivera threw something like 105 IP in '96....wetteland was probably closer to 70...
All of which argues for using him strictly as a ninth-inning guy who starts to warm up in the 8th inning of any game that the Cubs are leading when he hasn't pitched two days in a row and never pitches more than just the 9th inning.
Wood's not the guy you want to have get up when the other team starts threatening in the 7th inning who you have to then throw out there two batters later before the whole thing blows up. As such, he's not really a good choice as your top setup man. Plus, even if Wood doesn't get hurt (and let's be honest, that's pretty unlikely), I'd guess that Marmol will see 5-10 save situations where he's the closer du jour because Wood's not available because he pitched too often too recently.
This may seem an obvious thing for a manager to do but most managers lurch between the extremes. They either jerk guys in and out of roles with minimal data points or stick to their "plan" until the situation erupts in a ball of flame.
Lou takes the measured approach. I think this is due to his ability to tell a ballplayer from a cabbage. That's a rare gift among a good many managers.
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