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Monday, February 01, 2010

MASN: Melewski: To bop or not to bop, that is the question

The Bop That Never Stopped…for a real rockin’ Oriole.

The bigger point remains, with dozens of examples during the history of this great game - teams can win games and championships without a huge home run hitter.

Jim Hunter pointed out recently in an excellent article that balance is also key for any lineup. It can be huge to have several 20-homer types to offset one player hitting 40.

He cited the 1998 Yankees, a team that won 114 games and the World Series. Tino Martinez led that club with 28 homers. That team scored 965 runs, that is 50 more than last year’s Bronx Mashers. (Last year’s Yankees had four players hit 28 or more homers.)

The 2007 Red Sox won 96 games and the World Series with one player hitting more than 21 homers. But their team scored 867 runs. The eight regulars in that lineup hit a combined 142 homers and I’d take a lunch bet that the 2010 O’s eight projected regulars hit more than that.

It’s about scoring runs, no matter how that happens.

...Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against adding a 40-homer type, it is certainly not a bad thing. But there are many ways for a team to score over 800 runs.

The O’s could lead the league in 20-homer players this year.

Repoz Posted: February 01, 2010 at 04:21 AM | 14 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Rich Rifkin Posted: February 01, 2010 at 05:37 AM (#3451378)
The 2007 Red Sox won 96 games and the World Series with one player hitting more than 21 homers. But their team scored 867 runs. The eight regulars in that lineup hit a combined 142 homers and I’d take a lunch bet that the 2010 O’s eight projected regulars hit more than that.

Eight regulars? In the American League? Nice fact checking. It is true that Boston's nine regulars hit 142 home runs. They got 24 more off of their bench.
C Jason Varitek 17
1B Kevin Youkilis 16
2B Dustin Pedroia 8
SS Julio Lugo 8
3B Mike Lowell 21
LF Manny Ramirez 20
CF Coco Crisp 6
RF J.D. Drew 11
DH David Ortiz 35
But the 2007 Red Sox were not built on the home run.

That team had unusually good pitching. Save the 2005 White Sox, a team that also won the World Series, the '07 Boston team had the best pitching staff ERA+ (123) of the last 10 years.

Also, the 2007 Red Sox had a lot of doubles hitters. The club hit 352 doubles, tied for Detroit with the most in the majors that year.
   2. OCF Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:31 AM (#3451395)
You could fill a team with medium-power guys and hit a lot of home runs. But if they're all guys like Joe Carter, Mel Hall, Cory Snyder, and so on, you're not going to be happy with the results. Which is to say that OBP matters. The author of this probably even knows that, but he didn't say it here.
   3. rlc Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:36 AM (#3451396)
I’d take a lunch bet that the 2010 O’s eight[sic] projected regulars hit more than [142]

.          ZiPS      CHONE      Marcel     James
         HR    AB   HR   PA    HR   PA    HR   PA
Markakis 22   620   19  640    18  625    21  640
Roberts  12   584   12  651    12  629    12  708    
Scott    22   432   21  489    22  507    24  519
Jones    23   507   18  482    15  511    22  611
Wieters  15   496   15  488    10  392    20  608
Reimold  16   432   18  462    14  406    29  606    
Izturis   2   352    2  392     4  451     1  409
Atkins   16   472   16  556    14  466    14  478
Tejada    
?    ?    14  603    14  603    18  654

Total   128
+?      135        133        161 

Outlook mixed, check back later.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:41 AM (#3451397)
Yep, that Red Sox team had the 2nd highest OBP, 3rd highest SLG and 2nd highest OPS though just the 3rd highest runs. The 98 Yanks were 1st in OBP, 4th in SLG, 1st in OPS, 1st in runs. I don't know how the 2010 O's project but the 2009 variety were below league average in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and runs. It's true they don't necessarily need a big bopper -- but they do need to score more runs (or pitch like crazy!).
   5. Nuclear Dish Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:31 AM (#3451404)
Also, the 2007 Red Sox had a lot of doubles hitters. The club hit 352 doubles, tied for Detroit with the most in the majors that year.


The Orioles were tied for 7th in the majors last year in doubles, and they added Tejada, who led the NL in that category last year.

They now have the #1 (Roberts), #5 (Tejada), and #7 (Markakis) doubles hitters in the majors last season.

The Orioles have a good offensive lineup, and their team defense should also be good. Their fate over the next couple years is very heavily tied up in the performance of their young arms (Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken, Arrieta, Patton, Erbe, Britton, Mickolio, Lebron).
   6. Will Shave Off My Listach for an O's Win Posted: February 01, 2010 at 10:26 AM (#3451405)
O's had to have been league-worst (or close to league-worst) in OPS+ at the corners last year--Mora, Wigginton, Huff, et al. It's unclear how much Atkins improves them, though I guess Tejada projects to be league-average (was it 109?) at 3b.

Figure improvement at C, hopefully a bounceback from Markakis, and ideally Snyder comes along to replace Atkins by the ASB.

Assume Guthrie recovers, Millwood goes about 7-14 with an ERA of 4.5 (and lousy run support), 4th is in sight with serious contributions from Matusz and Bergesen.
   7. JH (in DC) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:52 PM (#3451421)
She bop, he bop, we bop. I bop, you bop, they bop.
   8. Lassus: Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:09 PM (#3451426)
Ohhhhhhh I missed it by 15 minutes. I'm shocked it took until post #7.
   9. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:09 PM (#3451440)
.          ZiPS      CHONE      Marcel     James
         HR    AB   HR   PA    HR   PA    HR   PA
...
Wieters  15   496   15  488    10  392    20  608 


Heh, a year ago there would have been lots of cokes owed because 10 people would have posted immediately about how you left the trailing 0 off Wieters' HR projections.
   10. Ron Johnson Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:19 PM (#3451444)
#9, One of the endearing features of Vlad -- Gary Huckabay's projection system -- is that it kept trying to give extra AB to the off the charts hitters. And it was designed to be optimistic (because Gary's interest was breakout seasons).

Combine whatever input error produced the Weiters projection in the first place with a tendancy to be optimistic with young players and a tendancy to give about 900 PAs for the elites and ...
   11. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:31 PM (#3451451)
Ron, I just sent you some email to your above BTF account.
   12. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3451477)
With that young staff, a trade with Atlanta for Tommy Hanson would have fit right in, so they could mmmbop.
   13. flournoy Posted: February 01, 2010 at 04:29 PM (#3451543)
With that young staff, a trade with Atlanta for Tommy Hanson would have fit right in, so they could mmmbop.


No. On multiple levels. No.
   14. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 04:35 PM (#3451546)
Jim Hunter pointed out recently


Never a good way to start a sentence.
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