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Eight regulars? In the American League? Nice fact checking. It is true that Boston's nine regulars hit 142 home runs. They got 24 more off of their bench. But the 2007 Red Sox were not built on the home run.
That team had unusually good pitching. Save the 2005 White Sox, a team that also won the World Series, the '07 Boston team had the best pitching staff ERA+ (123) of the last 10 years.
Also, the 2007 Red Sox had a lot of doubles hitters. The club hit 352 doubles, tied for Detroit with the most in the majors that year.
. ZiPS CHONE Marcel James
HR AB HR PA HR PA HR PA
Markakis 22 620 19 640 18 625 21 640
Roberts 12 584 12 651 12 629 12 708
Scott 22 432 21 489 22 507 24 519
Jones 23 507 18 482 15 511 22 611
Wieters 15 496 15 488 10 392 20 608
Reimold 16 432 18 462 14 406 29 606
Izturis 2 352 2 392 4 451 1 409
Atkins 16 472 16 556 14 466 14 478
Tejada ? ? 14 603 14 603 18 654
Total 128+? 135 133 161
Outlook mixed, check back later.
The Orioles were tied for 7th in the majors last year in doubles, and they added Tejada, who led the NL in that category last year.
They now have the #1 (Roberts), #5 (Tejada), and #7 (Markakis) doubles hitters in the majors last season.
The Orioles have a good offensive lineup, and their team defense should also be good. Their fate over the next couple years is very heavily tied up in the performance of their young arms (Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken, Arrieta, Patton, Erbe, Britton, Mickolio, Lebron).
Figure improvement at C, hopefully a bounceback from Markakis, and ideally Snyder comes along to replace Atkins by the ASB.
Assume Guthrie recovers, Millwood goes about 7-14 with an ERA of 4.5 (and lousy run support), 4th is in sight with serious contributions from Matusz and Bergesen.
. ZiPS CHONE Marcel JamesHR AB HR PA HR PA HR PA
...
Wieters 15 496 15 488 10 392 20 608
Heh, a year ago there would have been lots of cokes owed because 10 people would have posted immediately about how you left the trailing 0 off Wieters' HR projections.
Combine whatever input error produced the Weiters projection in the first place with a tendancy to be optimistic with young players and a tendancy to give about 900 PAs for the elites and ...
No. On multiple levels. No.
Never a good way to start a sentence.
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