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Thursday, January 18, 2007

MBB: Interview with Insight Man—Part I: Tampa Bay’s Joe Maddon Balances Data & Human Factors

INSIGHT MAN: Suddenly he could see through clothes, flesh… and Moneyball!

JM: When you get back to the people who are into Moneyball, they’re going to talk about not stealing bases, and not bunting, and the other tactics…when you don’t do those things, the pitcher has and the defense has a chance to relax a little, and just focus on the hitter; you don’t have to worry about the possibility of those things possibly happening. Just by having to worry about these possibly happening can create better pitches for the hitter, the pitcher burning more energy, missing a part of the zone than he would otherwise hit because if he could just focus on that one spot…there are all of these different issues and sometimes I just want to giggle when some people want to just reduce it to such a basic set of factors.

If that was the case, everybody could do that, everybody would be successful, and the team that’s been most prominent talking about it…Oakland…is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. The confusion out there is that they have basically done what they have through great pitching, and great scouting of pitching, and great concepts within their pitching staff. But most of the attention has been given to these particular players who get on base well.

If they did not have the pitchers that they had, that would not matter.

Repoz Posted: January 18, 2007 at 06:26 PM | 19 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsTampa Bay

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   1. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2282798)
He had me until he started talking about the A's.
   2. ValueArbitrageur  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2282806)
The A's were 9th in the AL in scoring last year. The Angels were 11th. I guess the A's would have been as good as the Angels if they developed a running game around Frank Thomas?
   3. mgl  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2282817)
A little knowledge can sometimes be just as non or counter-productive as no knowledge and occasionally worse, as evidenced by some of the things that Maddon says.

As well, "intelligence" (however that may be defined) is NOT necessarily a substitute or proxy for having or acquiring knowledge and using it productively, also as evidenced by what Maddon says. For example, lawyers and doctors are typically the worst players in a poker game (not that lawyers are all that smart).

Finally, who the heck is Steve Boros (I know who he is from B-R), how did Angus come up with that name, why is Angus so enamored with Maddon (when virtually everything he said about strategy/Moneyball was incorrect), and LaRussa is THE most anti-stats, stat guy there ever was in baseball (or something like that)...
   4. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2282833)
Steve Boros was said in his day to be the first manager to use computers in planning his strategies. This may be entirely factoidal, but it's the one thing I know about Steve Boros, so it's stuck.
   5. TOLAXOR  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 07:37 PM (#2282837)
ONCE, JOE MADDON AND I WENT HUNTING EXOTIC AMAZONIAN REPTILES TOGETHER.... WE HAD A PLAN TO TRAVEL UP THE RIO TAPICHE IN SEARCH OF THE ELUSIVE EMPEROR SNAKE, THE KING SNAKE'S REALLY LARGE AND GROUCHY COUSIN!!! THIS WAS ALL WELL AND GOOD, AS JOE'S MAN-SERVANT HAD SPENT HIS FORMATIVE YEARS IN AND AROUND THE AREA!!!

SO WE GET INTO OUR BOAT, AND TRAVEL UPSTREAM ABOUT 40 KM WHEN JOE STARTS FREAKING OUT!!! HE'S FOAMING AT THE MOUTH, WIDE EYED AND OBVIOUSLY AGITATED, SCREAMING INTO THE JUNGLE ABOUT GNOMES WITH LARGE SIDEBURNS!!! NOW OBVIOUSLY, THIS DISTRESSED MYSELF, HIS MAN-SERVANT KEVIN, AND HIS YOUNG DAUGHTER JOLENE... AND ALL OF A SUDDEN JOE IS TAKING OFF HIS BANANA REPUBLIC SHIRT AND WAVING HIS ARMS FRANTICALLY LIKE STEVE BALLMER SHOUTING AT A WALL STREET ANALYST!!! KEVIN TRIED TO SNEAK UP BEHIND HIM TO RESTRAIN HIM BUT WAS TOO LATE, JOE JUMPS INTO THE WATER AND IMMEDIATELY SWIMS TO THE SOUTH SHORE - KEVIN, JOLENE AND I HAVE TO SWING THE BOAT AROUND AFTER HIM, BUT BY THE TIME WE FIND SOMEWHERE TO DEBARK - JOE'S LONG GONE!!! ONLY THE SCENT OF OLD SPICE, JOLENE'S KEEN SENSE OF SMELL AND THE FAINT SOUND OF JOE SINGING ANNE MURRAY AT THE TOP OF HIS LUNGS MILES AND MILES OFF KEPT US ON THE TRAIL FOR DAYS AND DAYS!!!

WE FINALLY FIND OURSELVES IN DEEP IN THE PACAYA-SAMIRIA NATIONAL RESERVE - WHERE KNOWN CANNIBALS AND THE WILD THREE-TUSK BOARS OF THE AMAZON HAVE EACH BEEN KNOWN TO SKEWER VISITORS IN THEIR RESPECTIVELY GRUESOME WAYS!!! NOW I'M NO COWARD, BUT IN THE DEEP JUNGLE AS WE WERE, I WAS VERY, VERY AFRAID!!! ABOUT AS PALE AS A LARGE BLACK MONOLITH CAN GET!!!

ABOUT OUR 17TH NIGHT TRACKING JOE MADDON DOWN, LIVING OFF GRUBS, THE OCCASIONAL GECKO AND WHAT STRANGE AMAZONIAN RODENTS KEVIN COULD TRAP - DRINKING RAINWATER COLLECTED IN THE LEAVES OF THE GIANT BUMACOMA TREE, WE SUDDENLY HEAR SOME CHANTING AND DRUMS IN THE DISTANCE ( AND I SWORE I HEARD "WINTERY FEELLING SUNG IN PORTUGESE)... WE OF COURSE FEAR THE WORSE, THAT JOE MADDON HAS BEEN FOUND BY CANNIBALS AND THEY'RE BUSY COOKING HIM FOR STEW...

WE MAKE FOR THE SOUND OF THE DRUMS, AND LOW AND BEHOLD COME TO A CLEARING - A CRICKET GROUND POPULATED BY HALF NAKED AMAZONIAN WARRIORS AND VIKING LOOKING PEOPLES COMPLETE WITH HORNS AND BLONDE PONY TAILS (BUT WITH LESS FUR AND MORE SKIN SHOWING, IT WAS, AFTER ALL, THE AMAZON)!!!

THERE, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRICKET FIELD, IS JOE MADDON HIMSELF, DRESSED ONLY IN LOINCLOTH WITH A CRICKET BAT - GLARING INTENTLY AT A VIKING THAT WAS ABOUT TO DELIVER A PITCH!!!

"JOE, WE EXCLAIMED!!!" WELL, MADDON GLARES AT US AND SAYS "I DON'T KNOW ANY JOE - I'M LORD WALLABEE THE 7TH EARL OF CRIGHTON - MISSIONARY TO THE GREAT UMA-LOMA TRIBE OF THE AMAZON AND FRIEND OF THE NORSE-PEOPLES"! WITH THAT, WE START TO GET REALLY MENACING LOOKS FROM THE UMA-LOMA AND THE VIKINGS - THE DISTINCT FEELING THAT WE'RE NOT WELCOME HANGS IN THE AIR LIKE THE THICK SULFUR OF ONE OF JOE'S BAD CHILI-DOG PONGS!!!

NOW FOR AS LONG AS I'VE KNOWN HIM, JOE HAS DRIVEN A SAAB, BUT IF YOU ASK ME, THAT HARDLY QUALIFIES HIM AS "FRIEND OF THE NORSE", YOU KNOW???!!!

SO KEVIN, JOLENE AND I STAND THERE SPEECHLESS - IT'S DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH A MAN IN LOINCLOTH HOLDING A CRICKET BAT.... WHEN SUDDENLY, I GET AN IDEA!!! TURNS OUT, I ALWAYS STASH A BLUEBERRY HOSTESS FRUIT PIE FOR EMERGENCIES!!! YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN YOU MIGHT NEED A FRUIT-PIE AND IT'S NOT LIKE THEY GO BAD OR ANYTHING....

KEVIN TELLS JOE MADDON/LORD WALLABEE THAT WE'RE AWFULLY SORRY, AND THERE MUST HAVE BEEN SOME SORT OF MIX UP, AND THEN ASKS IF THE CRICKETERS WOULD LIKE TO HEAR A SONG!!! AT WHICH POINT, JOLENE PULLS OUT HER HARDANGER FIDDLE AND BEGINS TO PLAY A VERSION OF "A TENDER LIE"...

NOW THE UMA-LOMA ARE SUCKERS FOR DOLLY PARTON (THEIR SHAMAN MAKE REGULAR TRIPS TO DOLLYWOOD, THEY BELIEVE THAT THE PUNGENT WATER OF TIMBER CANYON'S BEAVER CREEK GRANTS THEM LONGEVITY AND FERTILITY) AND THEY BEGIN TO CRY LIKE BABIES- THUS DISARMED!!! I IMMEDIATELY THROW MY FRUIT PIE AT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF VIKINGS (VIKINGS ARE DEATHLY AFRAID OF THE FRUIT PIE MAGICIAN CHARACTER, AND SIMPLY TOUCHING THE WRAPPER OF A HOSTESS TREAT IS BELIEVED TO KEEP BUT THE BRAVEST SOULS FROM VALAHALLA) WHILE KEVIN GRABS JOE MADDON!!!

A COUPLE OF FORCED SIPS OF BAT-69 AND JOE COMES BACK TO HIS SENSES, AND INSISTS ON BRINGING BACK ONE OF THE UMA-LOMA TRIBESMEN WITH US... A YOUNG WARRIOR WITH STRANGELY CAUCASIAN FEATURES!!! NOW I FIGURE THIS IS JUST CROSS-BREADING BETWEEN THE VIKINGS AND THE UMA-LOMA, BUT IT TURNS OUT THAT AFTER DROPPING OUT OF BASEBALL DAVID NIED FELL IN LOVE WITH AN UMA-LOMA WOMAN WHILE VISITING DOLLYWOOD, AND THIS YOUNG MAN WAS THEIR LOVE-CHILD!!!

"YOU SHOULD SEE HIS KNUCKLE-CURVE" JOE EXCLAIMS!!! "HE HAD A 12-6 BREAK WITH A CRICKET BALL!!!" NOW JOE'S A SUCKER FOR LEFTIES WITH A KNUCKLE CURVE, BUT IT'S TOO LATE... WE DRUG HIM KICKING AND SCREAMING ABOUT GROUND BALL TENDENCIES ALL THE WAY BACK TO OUR BOAT, AND HEADED HOME - NEVER ONCE CATCHING ANY REPTILE WORTH A TROPHY!!!

TO THIS DAY, JOE BLAMES ME FOR NOT BRINING BACK THE UMA-LOMA/DAVID NIED CHILD...



BUT I STILL GET CHRISTMAS CARDS AND SOME HARRY AND DAVIDS FROM HIM AND HIS MAN SERVANT KEVIN!!!
   6. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 07:40 PM (#2282838)
TOLAXOR said what I was just about to say.
   7. Al Kaline Trio  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2282848)
I ALWAYS STASH A BLUEBERRY HOSTESS FRUIT PIE FOR EMERGENCIES!!! YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN YOU MIGHT NEED A FRUIT-PIE AND IT'S NOT LIKE THEY GO BAD OR ANYTHING....

I've seen mold on them at 7-11, but I'dve eaten it in the Amazon before I'd eat grubs and man-servant flesh.
   8. Jim Wisinski is waiting till next year  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2282864)
Maddon isn't thought of all that highly in the area, though a lot of people dislike him for things that I consider silly and trivial. He gets criticized for not being fiery enough, for not showing enough anger or yelling at times people think he should be yelling, for always being optimistic, for some of the stuff he says. I could care less that he's mellow and endlessly optimistic, I doubt that's negatively effecting the team.

What I don't like is his liking for small ball, his overuse of bench players, inability to settle on a consistent lineup, and use of worthless stats (like the 2 out/RISP situation mentioned in the article) to make decisions. It seems to me that he makes sure he has all this great information at his disposal then usually fails to make proper use of it or makes bad decisions based on it.
   9. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2282868)
MGL, y'all should send Maddon a copy of The Book. He does seem like the kinda guy who would be open to it. He appears to be interested in the analytical stuff, but doesn't seem to have really discovered the cutting-edge material.
   10. mgl  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2282876)
I'd be happy to. I'll suggest it to Tango. It is amazing to me how often intelligent people, even very intelligent ones, think they know things that they clearly don't. In fact, among all people in general (not just the intelligent ones), thinking that one knows things that they don't is pandemic and one of the major reasons for many of the problems that people have in their lives and we have in this world. Most sucessful people have one thing in common (among many) - they know what they don't know and they make it their business to find out what they need to know (or delegate to someone who does). Maddon does not appear to fall into that category. One, as we discuss in The Book (and his been written about elsewhere), the distraction to the batter of a "running game" is at least as great as the distraction to the pitcher and defense combined, and two, "micro" splits like batting w/RIPS, is worthless information as far as strategy is concerned. My guess is that Maddon uses batter/pitcher matchups, as most "stat-oriented" managers think that that is one of the cornerstones of a productive use of statistics, LaRussa being the most notable of that ilk. And of course, that is (practically) worthless (one could use it as a tiebreaker I suppose) as well (regardless of the number of AB/PA - again, see The Book).
   11. scareduck  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2282883)
What I don't like is his liking for small ball, his overuse of bench players,

As soon as the Devil Rays stop providing them for starting roles, I'm sure he'll stop using them in those positions.
   12. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2282892)
I get the impression that while the old Earl Weaver trick of using index cards to see how Benny Ayala did in 10 at bats against Ed Vande Berg may have been an incorrect application of statistics, it may have been useful in that it gave his regulars some rest and took away some rust from his scrubs. Over the course of a long season, that may have been beneficial.

Diagram that one, LAW!!
   13. mgl  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 10:12 PM (#2282901)
One of LaRussa's strengths, I think, is giving his bench players plenty of playing time. If using those "index cards" facilitates that, all the more power! Of course, are we even sure that giving bench players "more than their share" of playing time is a good thing? And where is the proper line drawn (should Neifi Perez, assuming he is on your roster in the first place, get 100 AB's or 200?)? There are some strategic issues in baseball that are fairly cut and dried and there are others that are not.
   14. danup  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 10:52 PM (#2282909)
TOLAXOR have I told you lately that I loved you?
   15. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!)  Posted: January 18, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2282912)
Of course, are we even sure that giving bench players "more than their share" of playing time is a good thing?
Wouldn't, by definition, giving bench players "more than their share" of playing time, be a bad thing for a team? (And, of course, the reverse also being true.) Assuming that your bench players aren't as good as your starters--not always true, I'll grant you--shouldn't their ideal share of time be exactly the minimum needing to keep them non-rusty & useful and your starters fresh & useful?
   16. mgl  Posted: January 19, 2007 at 02:17 AM (#2282950)
Wouldn't, by definition, giving bench players "more than their share" of playing time, be a bad thing for a team? (And, of course, the reverse also being true.) Assuming that your bench players aren't as good as your starters--not always true, I'll grant you--shouldn't their ideal share of time be exactly the minimum needing to keep them non-rusty & useful and your starters fresh & useful?

That's it. I have no idea what the optimal amount time is, and I doubt anyone does. If "more than their share" means more than the average manager/team, that could be too much (if other teams are doing it optimally) or that could be better than the other teams are doing it. And of course, it depends on the difference between your bench and your starters, the age and experience of your players, how much you need to win now versus tomorrow, the personalities of the players, etc. Again, not nearly a cut and dried thing. I probably fell into the trap of being a parrot - just because LaRussa is "known" for being good with his bench players (in some circles), it must be true, when I have no idea if it is true or not.
   17. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!)  Posted: January 19, 2007 at 07:27 AM (#2282964)
If "more than their share" means more than the average manager/team, that could be too much (if other teams are doing it optimally) or that could be better than the other teams are doing it.
Good point. Of course, I think this is a case where there may not be a "one size fits all" answer in the sense that one's bench players should always play x games in a season, just because almost all teams have different situations. Teams with an older catcher might need to use their back-up more often, another team might use a defensive replacement somewhere, things like that. I suspect there's probably an absolute minimum that your bench players need to play (and your regulars need to rest) in order to keep everyone close to their best, but how far above that minimum is a team-by-team thing.
   18. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: January 19, 2007 at 08:58 AM (#2282976)
they know what they don't know and they make it their business to find out what they need to know

Well, I've got the first half of this down. It's that second part that always trips me up.

By the way, Mr. Maddon, your team was dead last in the league in runs last season. By a sh!tload.
   19. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: January 19, 2007 at 09:32 AM (#2283001)
NOW I FIGURE THIS IS JUST CROSS-BREADING BETWEEN THE VIKINGS AND THE UMA-LOMA

Mmmmmm...cross-breading...[garglegarglegarglegarglegarglegargle]...

Ramirez, who I respect the heck out of for his hitting…in the field, he’s worse than miserable. They played a game in Seattle last month where Beltre hit a hard shot off the top of the fence that rebounded hard between Ramirez and Coco Crisp. It landed about six feet from Ramirez and about 25 or 30 from Crisp and Ramirez just looked at Crisp and pointed to it. Crisp had to chase it down and Ramirez turned a probable double into an inside-the-park home run.

Well, thanks to Sal Baxamusa, I know that Crisp absolutely butchered that ball, but of course it's Manny's fault the run scored.
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