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Friday, September 05, 2008

Mellinger: What does sweeping the A’s mean?

Not much...but if Frank Thomas ends up tied with Ted Williams and Willie McCovey at 521 HR it will screw up my 45-year old notebook of leaders list!

But here is today’s question: if we lived in a world where impossible hypotheticals were not only realistic but encouraged, would you trade organizations with the A’s?

OK, that would make you the proud rooter of the only American League offense worse than the Royals, and of a big league team that is now oh-for-the-last-six against the Royals.

But you’d also get an organization with a leadership group that’s had enough time to build a firm identity.

The A’s know what they are. They are pitching, they are defense, and they are OBP. Their offense is a traveshamockery this year, on pace to complete the triple crown of last in average, slugging, AND on-base percentage.

But consider that their pitchers are third in the AL in ERA, and as the best blogger on The Star’s payroll points out, third in all of baseball in defensive efficiency.

The Royals, meanwhile, are a team that doesn’t hit for much average ... or power ... or take many walks ... or steal many bases.

Repoz Posted: September 05, 2008 at 09:26 AM | 35 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralKansas CityOakland

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   1. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 10:04 AM (#2929771)
Considering the two minor league systems, yes, I would take the A's in a heartbeat.
   2. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 10:12 AM (#2929784)
Is it time to re-evaluate the Harden trade? And where is Murton?

ADDED:

I don't know enough about the Royals to answer the question. But the A's future does look promising. They are pretty set everywhere, assuming Barton hits again, but they really need a third baseman... a right-handed slugging third baseman, preferably. Someone like Adrian Beltre.
   3. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 05, 2008 at 10:18 AM (#2929792)
Seeing this on the sidebar, I thought this was a lot more complicated than it actually is. I thought there was some new statement, "sweeping the A's," and neither I nor the headline writer knew what it meant.
   4. flournoy Posted: September 05, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2929799)
The A’s know what they are. They are OBP.

Their offense is last in on-base percentage.


Therefore, the A's are by definition not OBP. Just because some dude wrote a book six years ago highlighting the way the A's targeted high OBP players doesn't make that some sort of permanent organizational philosophy.

Christ, this gets old. Beane really never should have written that book.
   5. Ben Grieve -automatic dp Posted: September 05, 2008 at 12:31 PM (#2929950)
Ummmm, does this mean that Beane is not going to win any executive of the year awards this year?
   6. Danny Posted: September 05, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2929963)
And where is Murton?

He's in Sacramento, where they're sporting a pretty unfair roster for the PCL playoffs. The OFers are Buck, Murton, Denorfia, and CarGo. They had Sean Gallagher start last night, with Brett Anderson relieving. The rest of the roster is filled out with AAAA guys like Donnie Murphy, Brooks Conrad, and Wes Bankston.

Meanwhile, Dan Johnson put up a .980 OPS for Durham this year; good thing the A's held onto Mike Sweeney instead.
   7. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: September 05, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2929983)
Yeah, well, gaining the platoon advantage with the backup 1B/DH was of more urgent concern than which player was "better" or "younger" or had "less service time and could remain under organizational control far beyond the current season, which they're of a mind to tank anyway."
   8. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 01:00 PM (#2929989)
Based on the A's farm now, you would take them over the Royals. However, I really feel that in this first iteration of dumping everyone through trade the team can claim to be gearing up for a run at a title rather than remain mediocre for five years and that makes sense. But what I really think is happening is that they have decided to go the way of the Marlins and sit back and take revenue sharing money and the hell with everything else. That's not all bad, because just like the Marlins, they will have some good young players and may be pretty exciting and/or interesting. But those guys are gonna get dealt even faster than they have in the past, because I don't think they intend to get the payroll above 50% of what it had been previously.

They do need some of those interesting young players to be hitters with some power though, because the team has been dreadful to watch for a couple years now even though everyone seems to be noticing it this year.

But most of all I need to move away so I can watch games on Extra Innings or MLB.tv and not always have to deal with Glen Kuiper and Ray Fosse.
   9. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: September 05, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2929998)
Dude, say that after you've sat through a hundred hours of Physioc, Hudler, Lewin and the Dave Sims Fake Enthusiasm-a-Palooza. You'll be longing for bland mediocrity. Or for the team to piss you off so much that you're free to abandon ship and spend lots of quality time listening to Len Kasper.
   10. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2930019)
When I was a kid, Physioc did more stuff in the Bay Area (maybe even for the Giants?), and I liked him alot. Mostly because I thought Physioc was a sweet name. So even though he is not good on Angels games, I get nostalgic when I hear him. So I kinda don't mind him, but I don't watch much Angels anyway.

Kasper is the man. I'm always happy when I know the Cubs are gonna be in HD on WGN and I can also be home at the same time.
   11. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: September 05, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2930034)
You know what, I miss Bill King.
   12. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2930077)
Yep, Bill was the man. I'll never forgive Greg Papa for going on KNBR the morning his passing was announced and when asked to talk about some of the things that made him great, all Greg could say was that he didn't care what anyone else thought, that he was one of the most prolific in-flight flatulators of all time, because he just didn't care.

Papa is such a putz. He really has no clue. I'm glad his brother is enjoying so much success now, he actually knows what he's doing.
   13. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: September 05, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2930085)
Jeez, I didn't know Papa did that. Personally, Bill King's flatulence never hindered my enjoyment of one of his broadcasts. And if the faltulence scared Ray Fosse out of the booth, it actually enhanced my pleasure.
   14. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 02:38 PM (#2930122)
But why is Matt Murton in Sacramento and Emil Brown in Oakland? Jesus I hope Murton takes Brown's spot on next year's team.

With respect to the A's radio guys, I loathe listening to Vince Contronio. That highly polished, "professional" voice comes off as smarmy to me, and the things he says I usually disgree with completely. Ugh.
   15. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2930129)
Therefore, the A's are by definition not OBP.

Well the A's are last in the league in OBP because they are last (dead last... with a bullet) in BA, not because they don't draw walks. They are 5th in walks and they are 5th in isolated OBP (OBP-BA).

ADDED: They are last in the league (tied with KC) in isolated slugging, however.
   16. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: September 05, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2930143)
A pet peeve of mine. I hate the isoOBP/Patience calculations.
If you just want a quick snapshot, BB% coupled with BB/K works better.
   17. rfloh Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2930150)
But why is Matt Murton in Sacramento and Emil Brown in Oakland? Jesus I hope Murton takes Brown's spot on next year's team.


The only reason I can think of is that they are hoping that Brown ends up as a type B. But, if that is the case, it makes no sense not to play him everyday, which they are not doing.

Having him on the roster is stupid.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:01 PM (#2930153)
But why is Matt Murton in Sacramento and Emil Brown in Oakland?

Because Murton hasn't hit a lick in 3 years? Murton's got a whopping 768 OPS at Sacramento after posting a 777 at Iowa this year. In the majors this year, he's sporting a swank 18 OPS+ after jaw-dropping years of 100 and 104. In about 400 AB this year spread across AAA and the majors, Murton has 2 HR. If this is the way the A's stack the AAA roster for the playoffs, I don't think the rest of the PCL has that much to worry about.

I know, Emil Brown stinks. It's possible he's worse than Murton, though at this point I've got my doubts. But he's also under contract and Murton has options left. And Murton's just not good.

The proper question is why did Beane want Murton in the trade. At least Eric Patterson can hit AAA pitching.
   19. iamawesomer Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2930198)
But why is Matt Murton in Sacramento and Emil Brown in Oakland?


The same reason I think they trot Dan Meyer out there every 5th start, to try and lose ballgames and get a better draft pick without making it blatantly obvious.
   20. Ben Grieve -automatic dp Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#2930202)
I miss Bill King alot. Especially when you used to go on tangents at random like the time he was complaining about the music that was playing between innings at the Coliseum during one game. I am sure it was "Light my Fire" during the long instrument solo and the time he ripped Jeff Russell and his wife for some reason. Ah good times!
   21. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2930224)
Aside from his classic calls like the Holy Roller play and Hatteberg's homer to extend the 20 game winning streak (which I had on a bottle opener that I seem to have lost, grrr), my favorite was a time that he got all over Joe West* for squeezing some young pitcher on the A's. Man, he was pissed! And he just tore apart West's entire career for an inning or two.

*May not have been Joe West, but they all suck, so it's not like he would deserve an apology if I'm wrong.
   22. Danny Posted: September 05, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2930243)
At least Eric Patterson can hit AAA pitching.


Career AAA line:

Murton: .306/.389/.457, 506 AB
Patterson: .311/.366/.484, 895 AB

Of course, that's a big difference if Patterson can play a credible 2B.
   23. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2930292)
But why is Matt Murton in Sacramento and Emil Brown in Oakland?

Because Murton hasn't hit a lick in 3 years?


Murton has been a better hitter than Brown in the past, and almost certainly will be a better hitter than Brown in the future, based on their ages. (Brown is 33, Murton is 26.)* The only thing Brown has over Murton is defense, but we're talking about left field. I want the better hitter.

*ADDED: Unless there's something "wrong" with Murton I don't know about... Walt?
   24. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2930298)
I don't want Murton or Brown! Give me CarGo, Cunningham and Buck next year. And if Buck still stinks, find something outside the org. I'm happy with Sweeney and Denorfia as the 4th and 5th guys.
   25. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2930311)
And if the faltulence scared Ray Fosse out of the booth, it actually enhanced my pleasure.

Yeah, Fosse bugs me too. He wishes aloud for certain specific things to happen, like: "It would be great if Suzuki hit one in the gap right here, to score Ellis from first and send us all home." No kidding Fosse, that would be great, but don't wish for it out loud.
   26. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#2930313)
Even better, Shooty. I'd love to see Buck back, playing like he did last season. He was great.
   27. Backlasher Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2930317)
Well the A's are last in the league in OBP because they are last (dead last... with a bullet) in BA, not because they don't draw walks. They are 5th in walks and they are 5th in isolated OBP (OBP-BA).

Which goes to show why building strategies around "taking a walk" rather than "getting on base" are distinguishable.
   28. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's! Posted: September 05, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2930334)
Even better, Shooty. I'd love to see Buck back, playing like he did last season. He was great.

For aesthetic reasons I would love an outfield of Cunningham, CarGo and a healthy Buck. They would just be fun to watch.
   29. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2930398)
Which goes to show why building strategies around "taking a walk" rather than "getting on base" are distinguishable.

It's hard to say to what extent the A's atrociously low team batting average is attributable to them "looking for walks". How does everyone on the team (except Suzuki and Sweeney) manage to hit .230? Is it their approach? Are they taking hittable pitches? I've seen a good number of their games this year, but I'm not really sure.
   30. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 05:18 PM (#2930401)
For aesthetic reasons I would love an outfield of Cunningham, CarGo and a healthy Buck. They would just be fun to watch.

I find Ryan Sweeney aesthetically pleasing as well. Actually, I really like Rajai's style too. He. Just. Can't. Hit.
   31. Halofan Posted: September 05, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2930422)
Billy's bait and switch still fools some of the people all of the time.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: September 05, 2008 at 06:37 PM (#2930455)
Murton has been a better hitter than Brown in the past, and almost certainly will be a better hitter than Brown in the future, based on their ages. (Brown is 33, Murton is 26.)*

probably true ... but it's not like Murton can hit.

Look, I believe Matt Murton could have been somebody. I believe if the Cubs had just put him out there everyday, he'd have developed into an average or better hitter for a corner. But they didn't and he didn't develop right (or maybe they were right not to have faith in him) and it's time we realized that.

In 2006, he spent the whole season in the majors, got 508 PAs and put up an OPS+ of 104. In 2007, he did crush in 170 AAA ABs and put up a 100 OPS+ in 261 ML PAs. This year he's got a 775 OPS in about 350 AAA PA and a 18 OPS+ in 70 ML PA. In the last 3 seasons, he has 170 excellent AAA PAs to his name and a lot of below position-average hitting. And, as I mentioned, in over 400 PA in AAA and MLB this year, he has 2 HR. No, you can't live with that in a corner in the majors.

And Murton will be 27 next season -- there's little reason to think he'll get substantially better than he is. Sure, he might have a 2004 Craig Monroe season or 2005-06 Emil Brown seasons in him ... but he is Monroe or Brown, not Kevin McReynolds.

The Patteson-Murton comment was basically a joke (i.e. Murton can't outhit Patterson ... who can't hit) but not only are Patterson's numbers compiled at 2B he's also been a year younger than Murton for most of his AAA time.

Sorry, it's just one of my pet peeves about my saber fellow-travelers. We (rightly) champion the Matt Murtons and the Ken Phelps All-Stars as cost-effective alternatives ... but there comes a point where you have to let go, especially if they're starting to no longer perform in the minors. There might have been a time when Murton was undervalued -- I believe there was -- but that time is gone. Sure, he might be a better 4th OF option than Monroe or certainly a better DH option than Vidro, but that's pretty much his upside right now.

The Rich Harden trade is starting to look reminiscent of the Pirates trading Ramirez and Lofton to the Cubs. Not that bad, but of a similar shape. In that trade, the Cubs were desparate for a 3B and a CF (given Patterson had recently gotten hurt). Now Lofton was old and ARam had not been particularly good to that point in his career (average hitter, poor defender) so one could argue (and I have) that the Pirates shouldn't expect much in trade. But the strange thing was they traded for Jose Hernandez (purely a short-term placeholder), Bobby Hill ... who they promptly buried ... and Matt Bruback ... who they promptly lost on waivers when they tried to remove from the 40-man roster.

It's one thing to trade for a prospect who doesn't pan out but they traded Ramirez and Lofton for 3 guys they clearly didn't want (probably the single best piece of evidence in favor of Justin Z's Pirates hypothesis). Now the A's do seem to want Gallagher but if they actually believe that Murton and Patterson can be quality ML players, they're not showing it. Maybe they did before they got a look at them and quickly changed their minds or the A's were satisfied with Gallagher as the return and M&P;were acquired purely as extra AAAA pieces. But I see little reason to expect Murton to get any more of a shot with the A's than he ever got with the Cubs. I assume he's out of options after this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded or made rule 5 eligible (or minor-league FA or whatever).
   33. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: September 05, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2930462)
I've always thought the name Cunningham was underrated.

"So smart... and yet with a smack of ham to it."
   34. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#2930516)
Now the A's do seem to want Gallagher but if they actually believe that Murton and Patterson can be quality ML players, they're not showing it.

Well I agree about Murton. But it looks to me like the A's are giving Patterson a tryout for the 2009 second base position.

I'm going to miss Ellis. Sniff.
   35. Johnny Clash Posted: September 05, 2008 at 07:41 PM (#2930525)
I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded or made rule 5 eligible

I anticipate that Beane will do some wheeling and dealing this offseason. It seems to me they have a glut of outfielders and no third baseman (or Pennington at third in 2009?) Too many lefty bats. Street has been mentioned in trade rumors for months... I could easily see Street and an outfielder being traded this winter.
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